• Trouble logging in? Send us a message with your username and/or email address for help.
New posts

Buckhead Rick

Beach Lover
Feb 15, 2005
140
5
As you all know today St. Joe has extended the buildout dates for Watercolor by two years, what effect do you all with a feel for the real estate mkt think this will have on WC and 30A and the 1500 or so lots for sale in Sowal.
 

Kurt

Admin
Staff member
Oct 15, 2004
2,233
4,925
SoWal
mooncreek.com
I guess buildouts are a double-edged sword. They can build value in a community but they help to drive up inventory?
 

SHELLY

SoWal Insider
Jun 13, 2005
5,770
802
Buckhead Rick said:
As you all know today St. Joe has extended the buildout dates for Watercolor by two years, what effect do you all with a feel for the real estate mkt think this will have on WC and 30A and the 1500 or so lots for sale in Sowal.

I don't think it will have any effect...the inventory will continue to build, the prices will stagnate, and people who want to sell will have to lower their prices to match the buyers' bids (assuming of course that there are buyers).

On the other hand, JOE...is going to have some 'splaining to do to the folks who thought they were buying into a neighborhood that would be built out (thereby increasing the value of their homes) and not surrounded by empty lots with "For Sale" signs owned by investulators.
 

goofer

Beach Fanatic
Feb 21, 2005
1,165
191
They have done the same extension for two years at watersound. i don't think this will accomplish developing the communities. just gives the speculators two more years to hang on and pay higher interest to the banks.
 

Dbaby

Beach Comber
Dec 27, 2005
10
0
I think this is a positive thing and a step in the right direction for St Joe. I think the builders have had the upper hand on holding prices up knowing we have a short build out requirement.
I also think the quality of home will increase. I had such a short build out that I was going to use the quick solution,( the st. Joe box) now I have breathing room to build a custom home. :D
 

sandfleas

Beach Comber
Jun 7, 2006
6
0
The buildout extensions will only prolong the agony for the real estate speculators. There aren't enough high demo end users flocking to the area to swallow even a fraction of the over 3200 available properties along 30A. The speculators will simply leave their lots on the market at the inflated prices hoping that a greater fool will come along in the next two years. It won't happen. Joe will be in the same boat two years from now.

Asking prices are way too high. If asking prices fall to where actual sales prices were in 2003, some inventory might start moving. However, if speculators believe that houses in the high end developments will fetch $1000 per square foot, they are dreaming. The same for 40X100 lots that are a quarter of a mile or more from the beach priced at $500k to $1.5 million. Those prices are simply crazy. Some speculators caught in the frenzy paid those crazy prices for a very short period of time. You will find very few, if any, end users that paid those kind of prices. The real estate market in the area looks just like the NASDAQ did in the late 1990's.

Rising interest rates, hurricane risks, falling housing values across the country, increasing insurance rates will all ensure that the market stays in the tank for quite some time. Only those owners willing to drastically lower prices to 2003 or before levels will sell their properties in the crowded market.

Joe did not do the right thing. Joe should have stuck to its guns and started buying back a few properties to put fear in the hearts of speculators. The prices would have dropped significantly, lots would have sold to end users and the communities would have been finished in a reasonable amount of time. This move has only prolonged the inevitable crash. Smart speculators will drop prices and get out as quickly as they can. Others will hope for a recovery that will not come. One more hurricane and even these predictions will seem rosy.

And, Joe stock will continue to tank. They will miss earnings by a mile. They have seen virtually no sales in any of the developments along 30A in all of 2006 and the rest of their developments are suffering too. Joe needs to sell about 5000 memberships to the Watersound beach club by June 30 to turn things around.

Alys Beach is also suffering. No sales in the development from Feb to April. Cypress Dunes, The Preserve, Highlands, Village at Blue Mountain, Adagio, Bella Vita, and others seeing virtually no sales activity. Interesting to see what happens when all those speculators on Sanctuary and Redfish Village condos are required to close on those condos because they can find no one to assume their contracts prior to closing. Joe is getting no interest in all those spec houses being built in Phase 4 in Watercolor, Watersound, or Watersound West and the new Compass Point 3 condo offering will be a bust. This scenario actually looks good compared to the condo glut in Panama City. The panhandle is definitely in for a rough ride for the foreseeable future.
 

sandfleas

Beach Comber
Jun 7, 2006
6
0
GVM said:
Excellent analysis.

Thanks. Time will tell if my opinion is right. I searched through this site last night and found lots of interesting opinions on both sides of the aisle. This site has lots of great info about the panhandle area of Florida between Destin and PCB.
 

mahthamadear

Beach Lover
Apr 12, 2006
73
0
sandfleas said:
Alys Beach is also suffering. No sales in the development from Feb to April.

i heard that there were 2 sales and a closing in alys beach south of 30a in april alone.
 

Dbaby

Beach Comber
Dec 27, 2005
10
0
enough with the gloom and doom senarios.
I have had it with you predictors of the future. I guess you also got out of tech stocks right before the drop too.
It is easy to predict what has already happened. I don't care about the speculators and their prices that have to drop. I was talking from my own perspective. I am a lot owner that bought in 2003 and I just wanted a little more time to build out. Building out is a very slow process in Watercolor. Hell, it takes 6 weeks just to get your lot resurveyed to start the plans. It takes much longer than a year to complete a build out. More like 18 months.
There intent is to see that the community is build out in a certain period of time not to take back land form speculators. Two more years is a good thing.

Your senario does not take into account that no matter what, weathy people are flocking to the coasts. Yes, there is a lot of inventory on the market but that too will change over time. Wealthy People buy real estate no matter what the interest rates are doing. An area like 30A is priceless, long term.
 
New posts


Sign Up for SoWal Newsletter