South Walton's Community Website
Beach Like A Local!
Create Account
New posts

Dominoes

Beach Lover
Feb 17, 2008
181
62
Just wondering what the thought is for the bottom prices at Watercolor. There are listings in Phase 2 and 3 in the upper $300's per square foot and I know of some homes that have closed around $350 per square foot in Jan, primarily short sales. There are few signs that things are going to turn around in 2008. Where and when go you think the bottom will hit? Is it the end of 2008/ early 2009 and will it go as low as $300 per square foot? I am thinking about buying and wanted some advice.
 

robertsondavies

Beach Fanatic
Apr 16, 2006
499
27
Prices will bottom in Waterclor in the $250 -275 sq. foot range, at some point late this year - just a guess - and they will then go sideways for a few years. ... and they still will NOT cash flow.

gasp ... what, $250 a sq/ft!!!..... it can't be true, b/c it cost x per sq. ft to build and the lots were 'worth" $ x. Well, all that don't mean sh*t anymore... it used to be that price itself, didn't mean sh*t, b/c tomorrow's price was invariably higher... then the music stopped.
 

Rambunkscious

Beach Lover
Jan 17, 2007
136
3
It's hard to believe that Mr Davies, I would bet money that will not be the case. The music has not stopped, just on pause for a few.
 

robertsondavies

Beach Fanatic
Apr 16, 2006
499
27
Why would you be willing to wager, if I may, why Watercolor prices won't drop another 10% when they've already been cut down 40 % or more from the 05 peaks already?? What's the stopper, or catalyst? Markets always overshoot and also over-correct. Whether it drops another 10% or stays flat is a moot point if you like the area, as I do. Both scenarioes, flat and/or 10% down will be terriblly underperforming returns on investments, as compared to other asset classes like equities over the next few years, IMO. and yet, people still love SoWal.

I agree that the worst case scenario is remote for South Walton. That would be a case where investment vacation homes would have to be competitive to other investments on a discounted free cash flow basis - if that were the case Watercolor/Seaside/Rosemary would be selling for right around $135/sq ft. Since I'm willing to bet against a depression, I'm willing to bet against that scenario. I'd also bet you that 10 years from now, we'll be well up through even 2005 prices, and that 50 years from now, this will have been incredibly good dirt to own.


It's hard to believe that Mr Davies, I would bet money that will not be the case. The music has not stopped, just on pause for a few.
 

scooterbug44

SoWal Expert
May 8, 2007
16,736
3,327
Sowal
I think there wil be some short sales and desperation that give you costs at that price point, but since you can't buy land and build quality at that cost in WC, it will be a blip on the radar screen. Well constructed homes (whose owners are not under duress) will need to sell higher to make a profit or break even.
 

Franny

Beach Fanatic
Mar 27, 2005
4,048
410
Pt. Washington
According to St. Joe, the company saw a 71% increase in sales for Jan 08 compared to Jan 07 for Watercolor and Watersound. The calls from buyers I have received in the last couple of weeks have been specifically for Watercolor. And yes they want the best 'deals', but there are competitive prices in Watercolor along with short sales and at least one foreclosure.
 

BeachKing

Beach Lover
Oct 23, 2007
66
3
I still have a real hard time figuring a 2k sq ft home can cost 1 million, and not be on the beach.
 
New posts