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scooterbug44

SoWal Expert
May 8, 2007
16,732
3,330
Sowal
I think there is still a lot of mess to be cleaned up and a lot of people who are in over their heads.

Not to mention all the commercial loans coming due.

No bottom....................but I bet you can find some great deals that might not be there during the actual absolute bottom.
 

30ashopper

SoWal Insider
Apr 30, 2008
6,846
3,471
56
Right here!
Have we hit "bottom" yet?

I'd say bottom in sales but I think prices in most areas will continue to decline for a number of years.

One of the things I've been noticing is a lot of shadow inventory. Every area I look in I find homes and lots that are in foreclosure but the bank has yet to seek final judgement. These properties are either abandoned or the owners are living in them for free. The banks have no interest in final closing (as they would become responsible for HOA, property taxes and upkeep) so the homes just sit in limbo. Meaning basically that a number of soon-to-be-bank-owned property is sitting out there waiting to go on the market. With those types of sales, prices usually get pushed lower.

I would say if you are looking to buy, now is not the best time, government incentives aimed at propping up prices are in full effect. It would be better to wait a couple years or so until those incentives run dry, then pick from the glut of properties that land on the market. (That's my opinion and personal approach of course, everybody should make their own educated decicions.)
 

gmarc

Beach Fanatic
Jan 19, 2009
506
65
prices are near a bottom and good houses at dirt cheap prices are hard to find. i assure you 100% by april or may obama will institute a massive nationwide cram down of mortgages to bring millions of mortgages down to there true value thus creating a bottom in the mkt. but the economy as a whole will tank as rates sky threw the roof as our debt levels move to incredible levels and foreigners will no longer finace our debt. prices will go sideways for years. by tinkering with the economy the gov't has insured the usa a miserable next 10 years.but if you find a home you love at a good price go for it. but one must be willing to own it for 10-20 years
 

Lynnie

SoWal Insider
Apr 18, 2007
8,176
431
SoBuc
I just told a friend that when his 'consumer confidence' is strong, then it's a good time for him to buy. However, he's been 'looking' for ten years.

I believe it does boil down to personal financial philosophy, risk tolerance and personal consumer confidence. And, every market is different.

My neighborhood in Atlanta has about 700 homes and no foreclosures.......except first one just announced. So, there will still be another wave or two or three of those who held on as long as they could, etc......
 

30ashopper

SoWal Insider
Apr 30, 2008
6,846
3,471
56
Right here!
prices are near a bottom and good houses at dirt cheap prices are hard to find. i assure you 100% by april or may obama will institute a massive nationwide cram down of mortgages to bring millions of mortgages down to there true value thus creating a bottom in the mkt. but the economy as a whole will tank as rates sky threw the roof as our debt levels move to incredible levels and foreigners will no longer finace our debt. prices will go sideways for years. by tinkering with the economy the gov't has insured the usa a miserable next 10 years.but if you find a home you love at a good price go for it. but one must be willing to own it for 10-20 years

You honestly think thy'll do that considering the rather weak attempts thus far at modifications? Coming into an election season with past homowner bailout very unpopular, I personally doubt it.

The other thing I wonder about is inflation - my two year window could easily be upset in 2011 by skyrocketting rates. But, if that did happen, we'd likely see a major double dip in housing.. personally I'd be willing to wait something like that out, the deals on the other side would blow current foreclosed prices out of the water.
 

gmarc

Beach Fanatic
Jan 19, 2009
506
65
yes the gov't is 100% looking at mortgage cramdowns. several articles have said this is why the gov't just raised the freddie mac/fannie mae lose limits to UNLIMITED.pandora's box is about to open as millions of people who wouldn't have walked away from there mortgages will walk if the gov't goes down this insane road.we have followed the exact road of japan from 1990. WE REFUSE TO TAKE OUR MEDICINE AND GET THE PAIN OVER WITH. INSTEAD WE'VE EXTENDED THE LIVES OF 1000'S OF INSOLVENT CO'S THAT ARE SUCKING THE CAPITAL AWAY FROM MANY CO'S AND PROGRAMS THAT NEED IT. ITS A MASSIVE MISALLOCATION OF CAPTIAL THAT WILL HAUNT US FOR YEARS OR DECADES TO COME.WE'RE IN THE FIRST INNING OF A NATIONWIDE DELEVERAGING OF THE CONSUMER AFTER 30 YEARS OF RECKLESS BINGING.


Treasury has reloaded its bazooka and stands ready to shock and awe the housing market.
Though, Standard & Poor?s/Case-Shiller data showed a fifth month of improvement yesterday, analysts still expect prices to fall 10 percent or more next year as various government supports wind down.
Political pressure ahead of midterm elections will likely force the administration to do something in response and Treasury?s Christmas gift of nearly unlimited support for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac gives them a powerful weapon to do so.
But it will be a tough fight as artificial, government-sponsored demand dries up.
The housing tax credit ? $8,000 for first-time buyers, $6,500 for move-up buyers ? ends in April. Meanwhile, the Federal Housing Administration plans to tighten its loose lending standards as its reserve fund has dwindled.
Moreover, mortgage rates may head higher as the government ends purchases of mortgage-backed securities. Treasury?s $220 billion buyback program ends this week. The Federal Reserve?s $1.25 trillion program ceases in March.
And then there?s the continuing flood of Treasuries to finance the federal deficit. Morgan Stanley estimates that could drive 30-year mortgage rates back above 7.5 percent, an effective 40 percent increase in the cost of financing home purchases. That looks high, but even a smaller jump will drive buyers from the market and force house prices down.
But the biggest threat may be foreclosures. Credit Suisse expects 4.2 million next year and says that 3.2 million must be prevented to keep prices stable. That?s a tall order, considering unimpressive results from modification efforts that mostly focused on extending terms or lowering interest payments.
Banks, mortgage bond investors and servicers are loath to go further, by forgiving principal, because it?s either a direct hit to capital or tricky to do under current bond documents. Extend and pretend is less painful.
Enter Fannie and Freddie. With unlimited support from Treasury the two have theoretically unlimited capacity to eat losses, useful to Treasury if it wants to finance an expanded modification program that includes principal forgiveness.
It?s a tempting weapon to deploy ahead of midterm elections. But financing principal writedowns with taxpayer money only adds to America?s debt burden while rewarding irresponsible borrowers and lenders.
Dec 30, 2009 08:05 EST
 

Bob

SoWal Insider
Nov 16, 2004
10,364
1,391
O'Wal
buy when every negative human being[who is obsessed with owning in sowal ] on this board is spewing negative doomsday bile about the end or real estate as we know it. you'll be sure to land a deal. you can't time a market, but you can surely see when it's a buyer's market. que the panic room crowd.
 
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