Where Are Prices Now And Where Are They Going?

Recently, someone showed me a graph of average price sales for homes in Walton County, noting that prices had no where to go but down.

I compiled sales data back to 2003 from Emerald Coast Association of Realtors, but using a better indicator, median sales price, and limiting the sales to South Walton.
 

After looking at the big spike in prices from 2004-2007, then seeing the downward slide, I guess some people  conclude that prices will go down more, since it appears that prices are still moving lower. None of us have a crystal ball so we don’t know for sure where prices will go. Let’s think more about the future of sales and prices.

Let me offer another thought and graph for you to consider. Where are we today, if we remove the years of the run up and the slide down? For the next graph, we will look at the same information, but without the years of data from 2004-2009.

WHAT IF THE MARKET HADN’T BOOMED AND BURST?

Does this graph give you a different image of where prices may go? When we talk about values going up or down over the long term, we keep in mind to rule out the exceptional highs and lows. That is essentially what I’ve done in this graph by eliminating the sales from 2004-2009 in the graph. The linear progression (white line) shows that in 2010, we are relatively in line with the historical median price growth. Did your view of current median prices change after looking at this graph? This growth line is fairly steady, with median price growth of about $25,000 per year. By looking at this chart, it would seem that this increase is “normal” and sustainable.

Again, without a real crystal ball, we cannot know where prices will go. Always do your own due diligence before buying or selling.