This thing could become a monster, lets pray it does not!!
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1039&tstamp=200808
Replies
393
SWGB
Where is everybody getting that it's going to curve back?
The purple shows it coming back, but the rest end over land. Whatever might come back will have very little if any strength to do anything.
The purple shows it coming back, but the rest end over land. Whatever might come back will have very little if any strength to do anything.
Beach Fanatic
Tornado watch in effect until 7an tomorrow for Walton over to Pascagoula. NOAA weather radio just sounded alarm.
Beach Fanatic
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1054&tstamp=200808
Gustav's storm surge is not likely to breach the New Orleans levees--if they perform as designed
Gustav is a very large storm. Like Katrina, Gustav may carry a larger storm surge to the coast than its wind speeds might suggest. Currently, Gustav's diameter of tropical storm force winds is 340 miles. By landfall, this number is forecast to increase to 360 miles, which would make Gustav 80% as large as Katrina was at landfall. NHC's current storm surge forecast calls for a storm surge of 10-14 feet to the right of where the center of Gustav comes ashore. The latest computer generated storm surge map shows that highest surge will be along the levee system along the east side of New Orleans. Storm surge levels of this magnitude are characteristic of a Category 3 hurricane. The levee system of New Orleans is designed to withstand a Category 3 storm surge. If Gustav intensifies more than the NHC forecast is calling for, there is a significant threat of multiple levee failures in the New Orleans levee system resulting in flooding of portions of the city. However, the latest 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs have shifted their landfall points a bit further west, reducing the odds of a Category 4 storm surge in New Orleans. My best guess is that New Orleans will suffer a Category 2 or 3-level storm surge. The levees will hold with that level of storm surge, if they perform as designed.
The latest track forecast
The latest 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs have shifted slightly west, with a central Louisiana landfall still the most popular solution. The GFDL model, which has all along insisted that Gustav would arrive at the coast a day earlier than the other models, has proven to have the correct timing. We should not be surprised if the center comes ashore as far east as New Orleans, or as far west as western Louisiana, given the current spread in the model tracks. Once Gustav makes landfall, it will slow down, and pose a significant rainfall/flooding threat to Louisiana and Texas. Portions of this region are under moderate to severe drought, so the flooding could have been worse. Only the HWRF model is forecasting that Gustav will drift southwestward back over the Gulf of Mexico after landfall. I am not expecting Gustav to be reborn off the Texas coast late in the week.
The sober meteorologists in New Orleans are feeling pretty good about this storm hitting cool water between now and the strike and the intensity waning to the point of a weak 3 or strong 2. My source in the Corps of Engineers feels good about New Orleans proper, the concern is the west bank of the Mississippi River. Time will tell.
Gustav's storm surge is not likely to breach the New Orleans levees--if they perform as designed
Gustav is a very large storm. Like Katrina, Gustav may carry a larger storm surge to the coast than its wind speeds might suggest. Currently, Gustav's diameter of tropical storm force winds is 340 miles. By landfall, this number is forecast to increase to 360 miles, which would make Gustav 80% as large as Katrina was at landfall. NHC's current storm surge forecast calls for a storm surge of 10-14 feet to the right of where the center of Gustav comes ashore. The latest computer generated storm surge map shows that highest surge will be along the levee system along the east side of New Orleans. Storm surge levels of this magnitude are characteristic of a Category 3 hurricane. The levee system of New Orleans is designed to withstand a Category 3 storm surge. If Gustav intensifies more than the NHC forecast is calling for, there is a significant threat of multiple levee failures in the New Orleans levee system resulting in flooding of portions of the city. However, the latest 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs have shifted their landfall points a bit further west, reducing the odds of a Category 4 storm surge in New Orleans. My best guess is that New Orleans will suffer a Category 2 or 3-level storm surge. The levees will hold with that level of storm surge, if they perform as designed.
Where is everybody getting that it's going to curve back?
The purple shows it coming back, but the rest end over land. Whatever might come back will have very little if any strength to do anything.
The latest track forecast
The latest 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs have shifted slightly west, with a central Louisiana landfall still the most popular solution. The GFDL model, which has all along insisted that Gustav would arrive at the coast a day earlier than the other models, has proven to have the correct timing. We should not be surprised if the center comes ashore as far east as New Orleans, or as far west as western Louisiana, given the current spread in the model tracks. Once Gustav makes landfall, it will slow down, and pose a significant rainfall/flooding threat to Louisiana and Texas. Portions of this region are under moderate to severe drought, so the flooding could have been worse. Only the HWRF model is forecasting that Gustav will drift southwestward back over the Gulf of Mexico after landfall. I am not expecting Gustav to be reborn off the Texas coast late in the week.
SoWal Expert
I am back on the "storm comfort food diet". Tonight it's lasagna, garlic bread, red wine, and 5 more pounds!
But it's keeping me sane.
French dip sandwiches with grilled onions, oven fried potatoes, banana pudding. Oh wait....it's not coming here!
Meow
French dip sandwiches with grilled onions, oven fried potatoes, banana pudding. Oh wait....it's not coming here!
...boo yah! 
SoWal Insider
It must be updating on sowal too, cause all I see is black, or that's one heck of a wave.
hey, I guess I should have saved it in a pdf and posted it! I didn't think about it actually streaming and updating (or whatever you call that).
SoWal Expert
How'sit in Houston??Meow
Humid and full of mosquitos!
SoWal Expert
Humid and full of mosquitos!
Here too. I kept having to spray Jackson down every time he went out to ride his bike.
Beach Fanatic
Just took these photos at the Ramsgate/Summer's Edge access. The water is nearly up to the stairs.
For those not familiar with this beach, I'd say about 70 yards of it is wet and there's about 20 dry yards left.
Sorry for the quality. The flash lights up the foreground so much!
For those not familiar with this beach, I'd say about 70 yards of it is wet and there's about 20 dry yards left.
Sorry for the quality. The flash lights up the foreground so much!
Meow
Great pics, thanks. 
...it is however what I was afraid of.
...it is however what I was afraid of.
Beach Fanatic
Maybe that blue sign will be gone in the morning!
Beach Fanatic
It's interesting- for all that the NHC didn't have high confidence in the models in the beginning, they've been remarkably consistent for days saying coastal Louisiana pretty much the whole five day forecast cone.
SWGB
hey, I guess I should have saved it in a pdf and posted it! I didn't think about it actually streaming and updating (or whatever you call that).
You just have to right click it and save it. Then post. Just think what people are going to see tomorrow, a week from now, or even next year.
SoWal Insider
You just have to right click it and save it. Then post. Just think what people are going to see tomorrow, a week from now, or even next year.
I know. I only rt. clicked to copy the property info for the link.
SoWal Insider
I just Googled Earth the NOLA area and I would hope everyone living in Venice, LA evacuated. Man, it IS the last township on the southern most tip of LA.
Beach Fanatic
Just took these photos at the Ramsgate/Summer's Edge access. The water is nearly up to the stairs.
TNJed got me curious, so I just went down to Ramsgate for a peek myself. Lotsa waves there, and the waves and surge are already about halfway up the beach.
But way cooler...
The dune is completely broken down at the Eastern Lake outfall and the waves are flowing INTO the lake. Hope that's still going on in the AM. If it is, I'll have pics.
SoWal Insider
ho hum. sitting here
no wind
no rain
the anticipation of this storm and the political threads are going to be the death of me...
no wind
no rain
the anticipation of this storm and the political threads are going to be the death of me...
Beach Fanatic
ho hum. sitting here
no wind
no rain
the anticipation of this storm and the political threads are going to be the death of me...
Wind picking up here finally.
Be safe.
Don't let the political threads kill you.
Give Little IBD hugs from mine.
SoWal Insider
Wind picking up here finally.
Be safe.
Don't let the political threads kill you.
Give Little IBD hugs from mine.
she wanted to email Riv today to tell her Hi, so Hi from little ibd.
still no wind, rain. I guess I will go to bed...
Beach Fanatic
she wanted to email Riv today to tell her Hi, so Hi from little ibd.
still no wind, rain. I guess I will go to bed...
Riv will be so happy! Good night!
Meow
ho hum. sitting here
no wind
no rain
the anticipation of this storm and the political threads are going to be the death of me...
Stay safe and be prepared!
Beach Fanatic
ho hum. sitting here
no wind
no rain
the anticipation of this storm and the political threads are going to be the death of me...
Hi IBD: Where are you posting from? LA or SoWal? I haven't been keeping up with this thread, but I hope you're out of harms way if you're in LA.
Edited
SoWal Guide
Stay safe and be prepared!
and hunker way down ya'll.
grand isle, la - bullseye
Meow
and hunker way down ya'll.
grand isle, la - bullseye
...God SpeedChecking your forum account
Please wait while we verify your forum account.