Interesting note from JP Morgan - [quote] The firm said it current expects home prices nationwide to fall another 8 percent from current levels, [B]assuming unemployment of 7 percent[/B]; its estimates for California and Florida, however, were more severe. JP Morgan said that its base-case suggests another 10 percent in price declines in California, while [B]prices in Florida may fall another 16 percent[/B]. The expectations for a further drop translate into a 25 percent peak-to-trough drop in prices nationwide; prices in California [B]and Florida will have fallen 44 percent in such a scenario, the company suggested.[/B] [B]Should unemployment reach 8 percent[/B] ? the scenario for a severe recession, under JP Morgan?s estimation ? those price declines would be much worse. In such a case, California could see home prices fall another 24 percent from current levels, [B]while Florida would drop 36 percent and nationally home prices would fall 20 percent from where they are currently. Such a worst-case scenario would drive an extra $54 billion in losses in the WaMu loan portfolio[/B], were it to pass.[/quote] [URL]http://www.housingwire.com/2008/09/26/jp-morgan-calif-florida-face-further-home-price-declines/[/URL] Not a pretty picture at all.
