Occupancy and Layoffs...

When I have to call my wife and ask her to call me back just to make sure my cell is working, you know it's bad. :shock:

I speak with everyone I can. Mainly builders and architects as well as articles from NAHB, New York Times and Wall Street Journal (anywhere I can find them) and I am convinced that it will not be next year that we see the housing market rebound to the point that it begins to prop up surrounding business and jobs.

This is one time I would dearly love to be wrong.

The rentals on our street seem to have been occupied all summer, for what that is worth as a barometer.

From October 2007-June 2008, the rentals for BSW are up 4.7% over October 2006-June 2007.

I know they were up this year, that's definitely true. Actually, I think everyone did very well this year.
I'm talking about projections for the coming year... homes, condos, and hotels.

People are losing their jobs left and right and we just came really close to being one of them. This is all supposedly based off of future projections based on current bookings from what I understand. I'm just curious to see if anyone else is seeing a huge drop as well.

It's a good question. Personally I am planning for having to give deeper discounts next year in order to keep the prime weeks booked, or to let some weeks go unbooked in the summer.

I noticed this year that many of our rental bookings came around the time the stimulus was announced, and I got several final payments during the early weeks the checks were sent out.

I noticed many more "lowballs" this year for our open weeks. Some I deemed reasonable and many I did not.

We have a very nice but not "prime" property, with some excellent features. Any downturn in bookings will certainly force us to lower rates, because people will have more nice choices.

I would guess that holiday spending will be a good indicator.

I feel for the people who are worried about their jobs. That is a much bigger deal. :(

There was an article in the Daily fishwrapper the other day talking about how lodging bookings were steady but that people were cutting back in other ways on their trip- booking half day instead of full day fishing charters, eating more meals in their condos instead of at restaurants, etc.

I saw the article last night and I found the timing interesting to say the least. The unemployment line in Walton County could be pretty long this week...

IMO a lot of local businesses/people are hurting due to a combo of the major downturns in the local real estate/construction market and tourist dollars being tighter due to rough situations elsewhere.

I think any recovery will be slow because even people who are still financially okay are being cautious and lots of folks got hurt by the downturn, but that we'll see an upturn before many other areas of the US.

There are many people who think we'll see an upturn soon, but I've yet to hear anything very positive from anyone but a real estate agent. (I'm not picking on them, they're just the only ones reporting good news right now in supreme contrast to everyone else.) Sales ARE happening as far as I can tell, it just isn't being felt yet in other areas.

:lolabove: I guess I need to come down ASAP and make a purchase;-)

IMO a lot of local businesses/people are hurting due to a combo of the major downturns in the local real estate/construction market and tourist dollars being tighter due to rough situations elsewhere.

I think any recovery will be slow because even people who are still financially okay are being cautious and lots of folks got hurt by the downturn, but that we'll see an upturn before many other areas of the US.

There are many people who think we'll see an upturn soon, but I've yet to hear anything very positive from anyone but a real estate agent. (I'm not picking on them, they're just the only ones reporting good news right now in supreme contrast to everyone else.) Sales ARE happening as far as I can tell, it just isn't being felt yet in other areas.

Yes, then remodel it, landscape it, furnish it, and go out to eat and shopping too! ;-)

Typically, seasonal based businesses lay off this time of year, after Labor Day many businesses operate with a skeleton crew, due to the typical visitor projection after Labor Day weekend, this doesn't sound like anything new.

Typically, seasonal based businesses lay off this time of year, after Labor Day many businesses operate with a skeleton crew, due to the typical visitor projection after Labor Day weekend, this doesn't sound like anything new.

In my original post I addressed this... it is by no means seasonal layoffs. Not even close. I'm totally accustomed to seasonal layoffs... these are 10+ year full time employees, salaried people and positively shocking cuts. I really don't want to just blurt out in public where it is, but if you must know feel free to PM me.

In my original post I addressed this... it is by no means seasonal layoffs. Not even close. I'm totally accustomed to seasonal layoffs... these are 10+ year full time employees, salaried people and positively shocking cuts. I really don't want to just blurt out in public where it is, but if you must know feel free to PM me.

Blurt it and get it off your chest. You'll feel better and I will too, I'll take ominous facts over ominous hints.

I really don't think I should do that until I'm 100% positive that my own family is not affected. I don't need to give them any reasons to point the pink slips this way as I currently believe we're ok until at least spring.

What I really want to know is if any other resorts/rentals/property management companies are projecting significant drop offs in bookings.

I am trying to remember the name of the company that now owns Sandestin- I know that Intrawest sold it, but is still doing the resort management. A family member that lives there had some inside info that the new owner is having some earnings difficulties, and I wonder if that is going to translate into cuts here.

Even when the earnings are good, Sandestin has a tendency to churn personnel every so often just to change things up.

If you want the honest truth it is this.

Times are hard and jobs are few. Cut the fat and load up the remaining workers who will be happy to do the extra work since they still have a job. This is not a new corporate concept and works in the short term. It is also most likely going to be a very tight winter. US snowbirds will be in short supply and the ones that do come will stay in more often than the past. Unfortunately it's going to get a lot uglier before it gets better.

It appears this thread is about possible cuts in the private sector, but what about gov't employees? We got our property tax assessment info this week and it appears values are way down. OBVIOUSLY they are down in real life but I am wondering if the county has reassessed properties across the board, just to get a fresh start. Will we see a dramatically lower budget and lots of layoffs on that end too? Haven't seen this discussed yet.

I guess I'll play the part of of the optimist, the U.S. is experiencing a slow down, but the numbers just don't point to a recession. I think we're in the final stretch, we weathered the subprime / bank failure thing pretty well. I think we'll come out of this by next year.