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Stagflation fears jump

30ashopper avatar
30ashopperSoWal Insider
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June brings us much more centrally planned stagflation. CPI increased 0.2% in May, higher than expected 0.1%, and up 3.6% Y/Y. This is the 11th consecutive increase in inflation. And so much for the CPI ex-Food and Energy which came at +0.3% on expectations of 0.2%, up from 0.2% in April: "The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.3 percent in May, its largest increase since July 2008. The indexes for apparel, shelter, new vehicles, and recreation all contributed to the acceleration, rising more in May than in April. These increases more than offset declines in the indexes for airline fare, tobacco, and personal care." More on the Chairman's failure to rein in inflation in 15 minutes: "The food index rose in May as well. The food at home index repeated its April increase of 0.5 percent as four of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased, with the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rising the most. In contrast, the energy index, which had been rising sharply, declined in May. The gasoline index decreased for the first time since last June, although the index for household energy increased. The upward trend among the 12 month increases of major indexes continued in May. The 12 month change in the all items index, which was 1.1 percent as recently as November, reached 3.6 percent in May. The energy index has increased 21.5 percent over the last 12 months, the food index has risen 3.5 percent and the index for all items less food and energy has increased 1.5 percent. All of these figures have been rising in recent months." But the real action was in the Empire Manufacturing Index which plunged from 11.88, and forget about expectations of 12.00, printing at -7.79 in June. The contraction is now confirmed.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ra...-state-mfg-index-tumbles-confirms-contraction

High unemployment, stagnant wage growth, and inflation. This type of economic scenario heaps pain and misery upon the middle-class like no other. Bernanke claims it's just a "soft patch", Obama calls this a "bump in the road". I'm not so sure.

Replies

26
Zebraspots avatar
ZebraspotsBeach Fanatic
#2
Food prices have been increasing all over the globe. We are actually far less affected than most countries, many places are seeing food prices rise 25-50%, which is why they is so much unrest.
idlewindBeach Fanatic
#3
I think we lived through this in the 70's.
Mango avatar
MangoSoWal Insider
#4
Food prices have been increasing all over the globe. We are actually far less affected than most countries, many places are seeing food prices rise 25-50%, which is why they is so much unrest.

Exactly, and globally, the population is expected to increase significantly, not to mention that we are the largest exporters of soy, corn and wheat. I'm with 30A, I don't see things getting better anytime soon and this is much more than a blip.
Today on Bloomberg:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...ng-global-diets-oxfam-backed-survey-says.html
LuciferSam avatar
LuciferSamBanned
#5
Yeah, but the price of CFLs and LED lighting is coming down.
AndrewG avatar
AndrewGBeach Fanatic
#6
It's Jimmy Carter resurrected. You can't say you didn't see this coming as it was predicted and shouted for the last three years now. It's the poor folks who are going to get stomped on as inflation ticks up faster than food stamp allowances or welfare checks. The middle class will just try to ride it out. You'll see less driving/more bike riding and public transportation. Crime will tick up too. This is just the beginning though. Entitlements will be reduced. Austerity is very painful, look at the Greeks.

We are in a Depression folks. This is the change you were supposed to believe in. The fundamental transformation of America is rearing it's ugly head. Get used to it.

I truly believe the only way to turn things around is to impose a National payroll tax on salaries for foreigners. Bring the jobs home. Americans want to do the jobs but at fair wages. That includes farm laborers.
Zebraspots avatar
ZebraspotsBeach Fanatic
#7
I love that you blame Obama for a decade long global increase in food prices.

The fact that hedge funds and investment banks became heavily involved in commodities trading during the same time period is probably his fault too.
30ashopper avatar
30ashopperSoWal InsiderAuthor
#8
Democrats are ready to take responsibility for the state of the economy and they deserve credit for putting it on the right track, the party’s chairwoman, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, said on Wednesday. “We (democrats) own the economy."

Wasserman Schultz said Democrats aren’t in need of a new story to tell about the economy because they’ve put the right policies in place.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0611/57025.html#ixzz1PNRMLVfB

You can have it darlin.
30ashopper avatar
30ashopperSoWal InsiderAuthor
#9
I think we lived through this in the 70's.

Except back then the middle class wasn't under water with a variable interest rate mortgage hanging over their heads. If inflation does spike the FED will be completely boxed in. Raise rates and you destroy fanancially anyone with a variable interest loan, the real estate market, and the banks, don't raise rates and inflation brings the hammer down on everyone.

Of course this could just be, as Obama put it, a bump in the road. Honestly I hope he's right.
BeachArkieBeach Lover
#10
I blame the corporations like Monsanto, heavily aided and abetted by politicians. They profit and destroy the planet, millions starve.
idlewindBeach Fanatic
#11
I love that you blame Obama for a decade long global increase in food prices.

The fact that hedge funds and investment banks became heavily involved in commodities trading during the same time period is probably his fault too.

The current crisis is the fault of Obama, Bush, Clinton, Bush I etc, etc. In fact it belongs to all of us. But Andrew is on the money, getting out of trouble will be painful and difficult. Obama's problem is he is unwilling/unable to face facts and begin to work on a solution. His fix is more of the same apparently.
BeachArkieBeach Lover
#12
We all need to change how we do things.

Noone makes you buy a house you can't afford, rack up credit card debt, eat bad food, and buy goods produced abroad.

Those are all choices we made that contributed to the current crisis.

Many other choices were made in Washington, but we are all so busy blaming the other party that nothing changes for the good. We squabble while the special interests and big business continue to destroy our country for profit.
AndrewG avatar
AndrewGBeach Fanatic
#13
Absolutely I blame Obama. He has killed jobs in this Country with his policies. We have lost over two million jobs overseas since the stimulus bill was passed. What jobs were created with the money? Where did the money go? His job czar Jeffrey Immelt CEO of GE is one of the worst abusers of outsourcing jobs overseas, yet he is our messiah looking to create jobs at home? You can't make this stuff up.

Private industry isn't hiring because they fear Obama's policies and the uncertainty he projects. Gov't is supposed to encourage businesses, particularly small businesses, not intimidate them. Until the policies change don't expect a recovery. Everything this administration has done has discouraged/put off a recovery. Just this week one of his advisors said gov't has to hire more people to stabilize unemployment. How exactly does that work?

This genius is leading you to gov't dependence & eventual poverty.
Andy A avatar
Andy ABeach Fanatic
#14
This is one family of two's perspective. Yesterday, we went grocery shopping. It had been nearly a month since we last stocked up. While not exactly the same items, we had a bill of $240. Our previous bill for grocery items was roughly $200. If my math is right, that is a 20% increase in less than a month. Where is the decade long rise in rise in food prices and how does it apply here? It is an American increase in food prices and it is due in large to the stupid policies pursued by this administration. If you think its bad now, wait awhile. I believe you ain't seen nothin yet.
30ashopper avatar
30ashopperSoWal InsiderAuthor
#15
This is one family of two's perspective. Yesterday, we went grocery shopping. It had been nearly a month since we last stocked up. While not exactly the same items, we had a bill of $240. Our previous bill for grocery items was roughly $200. If my math is right, that is a 20% increase in less than a month. Where is the decade long rise in rise in food prices and how does it apply here? It is an American increase in food prices and it is due in large to the stupid policies pursued by this administration. If you think its bad now, wait awhile. I believe you ain't seen nothin yet.

Honestly I would blame that more on the FED's FOMC. Obama and the dems own our anemic economic recovery though for sure.
BeachArkieBeach Lover
#16
You can't compare 2 grocery bills and use that as a basis for price increases - unless you bought the exact same items both times. My bills went down, that doesn't refute the fact that food prices are rising.

Any increase you see in your grocery bill is mostly due to higher fuel costs for transport and processing, not government agricultural policy.

US food prices typically go up an average of 2.5% a year, this year is predicted to be closer to 3.5%. If they go up 4% it will be the same as 2007.

The more foreign your food is and the more processed it is, the more the price will be affected.

Edited

TNJed avatar
TNJedBeach Fanatic
#17
I know many people don't like to hear these things. I don't enjoy prepping for the possibility but I am ready.And the possibility of economic collapse doesn't bother me. It's an inevitability as long as fiat currency exists which works until it suddenly doesn't. Governments don't pay debts, you do. And debts this large NEVER get paid. They are debased or defaulted. That's it. Raising rates will cause our interest payments to bankrupt us within weeks if not days. Monetizing/printing debt to pay for debt makes US debt holders and savers angry. But who cares about them? What truly worries me is the 98% of our population which isn't ready.

I'd like to recommend a new site which used to be just a blog, TFmetalsreport.com. It has been a growing community of concerned people from around the globe about the fate of Keynesian economics and the destruction of all fiat currencies. Yes, we are gold/silver bugs. Be careful, truth is contagious and you will be storing your purchasing power in gold if you read too much.

We don't hope for chaos, we merely prepare for it. We do hope by telling friends and neighbors about options to protect themselves, the fall will be cushioned. Stay out of political debate traps and wedge issues. None of that Kabuki theater matters. Take care of yourself, family and neighbors.


This long paper has everything you need to know.

http://www.shadowstats.com/article/hyperinflation-special-report-2011

Great Collapse Nears

"The U.S. economic and systemic-solvency crises of the last four years only have been precursors to the coming Great Collapse: a hyperinflationary great depression. Such will encompass a complete collapse in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar; a collapse in the normal stream of U.S. commercial and economic activity; a collapse in the U.S. financial system as we know it; and a likely realignment of the U.S. political environment. Outside timing on the hyperinflation remains 2014, but there is strong risk of the currency catastrophe beginning to unfold in the months ahead. It may be starting to unfold as we go to press in March 2011, but moving into a full blown hyperinflation could take months to a year, beyond the onset, depending on the developing global view of the dollar and reactions of the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve.

Prerequisites to the crisis unfolding include: the Federal Reserve moving to monetize U.S. Treasury debt; the U.S. dollar losing its traditional safe-haven status; the U.S. dollar losing its reserve status; the federal budget deficit and Treasury funding needs spiraling out of control. The Fed moved to monetize Treasury debt in November 2010. A much-diminished U.S. dollar safe-haven status has become evident in early March 2011, along with serious calls for a new global reserve currency. The economy is not in recovery and should display significant new weakness in the months ahead, with severely expansive implications for the federal deficit, Treasury funding needs and requisite Fed monetization of debt.


As the advance squalls from this great financial tempest come ashore, the government could be expected to launch a variety of efforts at forestalling the hyperinflation’s landfall, but such efforts will buy little time and ultimately will fail in preventing the dollar’s collapse. The timing of the onset of full blown hyperinflation likely will be coincident with a broad global rejection/repudiation of the U.S. dollar.
With no viable or politically-practical way of balancing U.S. fiscal conditions and avoiding this financial economic Armageddon, the best that individuals can do at this point is to protect themselves, both as to meeting short-range survival needs as well as to preserving current wealth and assets over the longer term. Efforts there, respectively, would encompass building a store of key consumables, such as food and water, and moving assets into physical precious metals and outside of the U.S. dollar."
Geo avatar
GeoBeach Fanatic
#18
Current data I'm seeing shows food prices and gas prices going down after a period of an increase. But don't let data or facts get in the way.
30ashopper avatar
30ashopperSoWal InsiderAuthor
#19
Current data I'm seeing shows food prices and gas prices going down after a period of an increase. But don't let data or facts get in the way.

After a major run up over the last year, which might just have something to do with the economic recovery floundering.. which would cause commodities to fall in value. Geo I don't know if you follow commodity markets but I can assure you prices are not low compared to past values. ANYONE who has purchased a 12 oz steak, a pound of seafood, or a 1/2 gallon of milk knows this.
Geo avatar
GeoBeach Fanatic
#20
We're in agreement, home boy. I never said they were low- I said they are presently decreasing (in response to Andy's conclusion about his 2 grocery bills). Cheers...

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