Tropical Storm Fay

Kind of long but worth reading, from the NHC.

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

THERE IS BASICALLY NOTHING NEW TO REPORT. FAY HAS BEEN MEANDERING
FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY. LATEST
MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 994 MB AND
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW NUMEROUS RAINBANDS AND DEEP CONVECTION
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER WITH A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. NWS DOPPLER RADAR CLEARLY SHOWS A SPINNING
RING OF CONVECTION WITH DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF UP TO 67 KNOTS AT
APPROXIMATELY 5000 FEET. HOWEVER...FAY DOES NOT HAVE AN INNER
CORE. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...THE INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD IMPEDE IT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES
INLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER...FAY SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN BUT A TRACK FATHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED COULD BRING
THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. IN THIS CASE...FAY
SHOULD NOT WEAKEN AS MUCH AS FORECAST...AND DO NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IF THE CENTER OF FAY REMAINS
OVER WATER LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.

STEERING CURRENTS HAVE REMAINED VERY LIGHT...CONSEQUENTLY FAY HAS
BARELY MOVED SINCE YESTERDAY. GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF FAY. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OR WEST...A MOTION WE HAVE BEEN FORECASTING BUT HAS NOT MATERIALIZED
YET. NEVERTHELESS...THE DEVELOPING STEERING PATTERN GIVES ME NO
OPTION BUT TO FORECAST A TURN TO THE LEFT WHICH SHOULD BEGIN SOON.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL GLOBAL MODELS AND TRACK GUIDANCE.

REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.

Here she comes -

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm6/floater4_large_animated.html

That's a really big storm!

Please stay safe everyone!

Batten down the hatches, boys, we're in for a blow! Now if I only lived there I could do that very thing but since I am about 500 miles north in Memphis, I will watch carefully and monitor and hope for the best for all.

It's been blowing purty good here all day. No school today or tomorrow.
We lost our power a couple hours ago and went down to the beach to see what was going on. We were pelted with rain, salt and sand, paid our respects to Mother Nature, and returned home to see the power back on.

TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

...FAY EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA...VERY HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.

Despite the watch, the NHC doesn't seem too concerned yet about severe damage from landfall #4- no mention of 'preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion' like you get when they genuinely think it's going to be a bad one.

From the National Weather Service:

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...COFFEE...DALE...HENRY...GENEVA...HOUSTON...WALTON
...HOLMES...WASHINGTON...JACKSON...BAY...CALHOUN...GULF.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE MAIN THREAT FROM FAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF CONSIDERABLE
FLOODING. THIS THREAT IS GREATEST IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. IF YOU LIVE
IN A LOW LYING AREA...MAKE PREPARATIONS TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND
IF FLOODING OCCURS. IF NECESSARY...SECURE SANDBAGS TO PROTECT YOUR
PROPERTY.
...WINDS...
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY EVENING. SOME OF THE STRONGER RAIN BANDS MAY PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...OR MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
...INLAND FLOODING...
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE DOMINANT THREAT FROM
TROPICAL STORM FAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 10 INCHES NEAR THE GULF COAST WITH 8 TO 10 INCHES ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES NEAR THE FLORIDA
BORDER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA WILL
BE AROUND 4 TO 6 INCHES. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE MODERATE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURS.
RIVER FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN THE DAYS AHEAD AS HEAVY RAINFALL
OCCURRING OVER SOUTH ALABAMA FILTERS DOWN INTO THE RIVERS.
...TORNADOES...
AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT EXISTS FOR TOMORROW EVENING AND
SATURDAY AS FAY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 12 AM EDT FRIDAY...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

If the track BB posted is correct, we are going to get soaked.

Guess I better get out my rain boots, galoshes, or as my Grandmother would have said,

"Don't you dare go out without your rubbers on"

God, I miss her.

I think I need rainboots for every occasion here. I think it has rained every day in P'ville since we have moved. :shock: Thank God we have high and dry land.

Stay safe SoWal!

The 11 PM EDT report puts Fay as a tropical storm when it passes over SoWal. At 8 PM it was projected as a tropical depression.

Seems like they're thinking a slightly more southern track that will get the storm back over water for warmer. And we're now in the expanded watch area. (I had to look up the Aripeka breakpoint, and it's north of Tarpon Springs)

TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

...FAY STILL DRIFTING WESTWARD AND DUMPING HEAVY RAINS OVER
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ARIPEKA NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO INDIAN PASS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FROM WEST OF INDIAN PASS WESTWARD TO DESTIN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER BETWEEN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

Should anyone care, Wal-Mart in Destin still has rubber boots and propane. Or at least they did about an hour ago.

Who needs rubber boots for rain? Why not just wear waterproof sandals?

Who needs rubber boots for rain? Why not just wear waterproof sandals?

Did you read about all the snakes in the flood water in So. Florida? I think I'll wear boots!

And, if we really get 5-10 inches of rain, whaddaya bet every last one of the lakes opens? Does anyone remember that ever happening?

I'm thinking about y'all down there in SOWAL. Stay safe!

The wind is whipping around in DeFunn this morning..........:shock:

I thought about the lakes opening too. You all are on my mind. Be careful and stay safe.

I am beginning to think this one might make history for the most landfalls in FL. Current track would put another in Appalach AND P'Cola.

Who needs rubber boots for rain? Why not just wear waterproof sandals?

Two reasons: snakes and fire ants.

What a glorious day it is today!

...may we see another this fine in the very near future!

Fay, seriously...

you can't stay.

What a glorious day it is today!

...may we see another this fine in the very near future!

Fay, seriously...

you can't stay.

It sure looks beautiful on the beach cam. Enjoy it before she gets there.

Latest update I've seen is slightly offshore of the beach in Sowal with max winds Saturday afternoon of 35mph or so. Winds starting to pick up around 4:30am tomorrow morning and lasting until Sunday around 5pm. Let's hope there is rain and lightning so that there won't be many people in the water.

What a glorious day it is today!

...may we see another this fine in the very near future!

Fay, seriously...

you can't stay.

It is beautiful today. Plus it's our middle child's birthday! Doubly gorgeous.

I was just thinking that this storm has an amazing record of hitting as many places in FL as possible. Mother Nature has a great sense of humour.

Did you read about all the snakes in the flood water in So. Florida? I think I'll wear boots!

Rubber rain boots aren't snake proof, and if we get the 20 inches of rain they mention, the flooded areas will bring the swimming snakes up to about your thighs, and your boots will be flooded anyway.

Two reasons: snakes and fire ants.

see above. Fire ants? surely they won't try to climb your boots to get to safety. :shock: White vinegar in a spray bottle, is your friend to repel fire ants.




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