Tropical Storm Fay

I don't own one myself, but have thought about buying, and highly recommend to others, one of the small multifunctional radios, which has a flash light, radio, and one regular DC or AC outlet, which can be operated on batteries or hand cranked, user-generated. They could be great use if the power goes out and you are keeping tabs with ppl via text message, email via cell phone, or cell phone itself, if you are able to get a darn signal. Text messages will work best because they just sit in hold until a cell opens up, where the phone doesn't.

SJoe and others,
Try this website www.ccrane.com Mr. IBD has one of their radios and takes it everywhere with him. We actually laugh b/c it is like his security blanket. It also picks up WWL in SoWal skunky . They also have alot of other items that are good in bad weather/power outages....

generators will undergo full functionality test today...I don't care for that track!

we did and one of ours has a problem...

Okay so by looking at the map, I think we should evacuate if its a catagory 3 but we are very close to the catagory 1 or 2 color. Its hard to tell the difference between the colors of 1 and 2. Can anyone else tell? We are located in the triangle shaped bayside area near the water.

jackieh, what you need to be aware of is the fact that a storm can go from a Tropical Storm to a Cat 3 Hurricane over night. So if anything is heading this way, it shouldn't matter if it is a TS or a Cat 5, because the chance to evacuate will slip by you when the bridges close, and that will be at least one day out, and a storm may still be a Tropical Storm, then BAM! you are F'd. I'd recommend that since you live in Driftwood, and the only road in or out, floods with heavy rain, get the heck out of Dodge while you can. Leave early and beat the crowds.

TFT, that link to the storm surge map timed out on me due to its large size. You can always go to WalCo's GIS map to see the storm surge layer over each parcel. Here is the link to that page. Storm surge layer is under the "emergency" file. When the layer pulls up, you can then click on "legend" to see what's what. The other maps stuff works as most others. There are many features on there and it can get a little tricky for novices.

by: JeffMasters, 4:38 PM EDT on August 17, 2008
www.weatherunderground.com

Tropical Storm Fay continues to look unimpressive as it tracks south of Cuba. Radar imagery from Punta del Este, Cuba shows that the low-level spiral bands are sparse and poorly organized. Visible satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity only surrounds about 1/3 of the center of the storm. Fay is in a moderately favorable wind shear environment, with upper-level winds from the west creating about 10 knots of wind shear. Upper level outflow is well-established only to the north and east. The highest surface winds found between 2pm and 4pm EDT by the latest Hurricane Hunter flight were 47 mph. However, the pressure is falling, and stood at 1003 mb at 3:11 pm EDT.

The forecast for Fay
Fay is gradually building an eyewall this afternoon, but probably does not have time to complete this process before crossing Cuba. This means that the storm will have to start this process all over again Monday morning, delaying intensification longer than the models had predicted.

The computer models have come into better agreement, predicting that Fay will stay south of Cuba a bit longer and move further west than expected before turning northwest and crossing the island. This reduces the threat to Key West and Southwest Florida, but increases the threat to the Florida coast between Sarasota and the Florida Panhandle. This also increases the chances that Fay will hit Florida as a hurricane, since it will have more time over water.

The latest (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model puts Fay ashore Monday night near Sarasota as a Category 1 hurricane with a 976 mb pressure and 80-85 mph winds. The HWRF model foresees a landfall on Tuesday morning further north, past Cedar Key, and makes Fay a strong Category 2 hurricane with a 945 mb pressure and 110 mph winds. Both of these forecasts are probably too intense, given Fay's current state of disorganization. Only the ECMWF model is currently forecasting a motion all the way across the Florida Peninsula and out into the open Atlantic. This model then foresees a triple hit on Florida--motion back across Florida from east to west, followed by a third Florida landfall int he Panhandle. The UKMET and NOGAPS models continue to show a threat to the Florida Panhandle.

If Fay hits the Sarasota/Tampa Bay region, these are the kind of probabilities for intensity I'm thinking:

Tropical storm: 50%
Category 1 Hurricane: 35%
Category 2 hurricane: 10%
Category 3+ Hurricane: 5%

For a landfall further north in the Panhandle, my probabilities are:

Tropical storm: 35%
Category 1 Hurricane: 35%
Category 2 Hurricane: 20%
Category 3+ Hurricane: 10%

Links to follow
Wundermap for Cuba and the Florida Keys
Punta del Este, Cuba radar
Key West, FL weather

Elsewhere in the tropics
Several of the reliable computer models are predicting development of a tropical wave currently located off the coast of Africa, just south of the Cape Verde Islands. This system is expected to track west-northwest and be near or just north of the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands 5-7 days from now.

I'll have an update Monday morning (or later this evening, if there's some significant development to report).

Jeff Masters

$49.95
Item # COB Out of Stock.
Due 09/02/08That figures. Out of stock!



Here is the latest models map. It has been changing quite a bit, so I thought I'd update this page.

In other words, as of now no one knows where this one's headed.

egg-zachery! too early to know. be prepared just in case.

my generator functionality test may have moved the storm west for now...sorry

my generator functionality test may have moved the storm west for now...sorry

Gee, thanks!

8PM EDT model runs are now posted up at www.wunderground.com/tropical. Note that SJ's post #105 appears to have updated to the current runs.

The tracks are still widely spread, but all of them have shifted eastward. The 11 PM EDT forecast from the NHC is still straight up the west coast of the peninsula. They continue to expect the turn northward to happen more aggressively than NOGAPS predicts.

Although we all wish for something more definitive, it looks like we've got to wait to late tomorrow for the models to begin to converge. At that time, Fay should be clear of Cuba and the Hurricane Hunters will have made a pass through, which in turn will reflect in the 8 PM EDT model runs. If we're lucky, they'll get something in time for the 2 PM runs, which typically show up online around 4 PM our time.

Yeah, and

my generator functionality test may have moved the storm west for now...sorry

Revenge for Charley? :angry:

This one is starting to get me thinking. I have to admit, pretty excited about getting some surf but I am not liking the path this one seems to be taking.

Still early but a lot of warm water ahead for this storm!

This one is starting to get me thinking. I have to admit, pretty excited about getting some surf but I am not liking the path this one seems to be taking.

Still early but a lot of warm water ahead for this storm!

No yapping about the surf! It's bad karma!

where faye travels across cuba is the bottom line to the effect of the week ahead of us. let us all remember,..storms are like funerals,..they tend to bring out the best and worst in people,...be a good neighbor and shine on....

Looks like they are predicting a strike south of Tampa now.

I'm beginning to wonder if this little guy will even make it back to hurricane status. That last big jog to the north seems to have caught all the models by surprise. Any more of that and it'll be making landfall over the keys as a tropical storm.

From what I am reading, it is still south of Tampa and at most will be a minimal cat 1 at landfall.

Early on, Dr Masters of Weather Underground nicknamed Fay "The Joker." Seems he was right - this one is a real forecasting nightmare. :shock:
I see they have found 60mph winds this morning. Landfall sooner rather than later would be the best case. I hope you are right, BeachSiO2.

Early on, Dr Masters of Weather Underground nicknamed Fay "The Joker." Seems he was right - this one is a real forecasting nightmare. :shock:
I see they have found 60mph winds this morning. Landfall sooner rather than later would be the best case. I hope you are right, BeachSiO2.

My peeps have been saying the same thing since late Friday/early Saturday and they are usually pretty good. I'll make sure and post if they change anything.

Here is the next one rolling off the coast of Africa. Seeing how most Auburn graduates did not do well in geography and they need peeps it's all the way over on the left! Here is the on SJ mentioned. http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastfullir.html Several of the reliable computer models are predicting development of a tropical wave currently located off the coast of Africa, just south of the Cape Verde Islands. This system is expected to track west-northwest and be near or just north of the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands 5-7 days from now

My brother and sister are just south of Tampa and trying to figure what to do at this point. don't want to head north, south or east...West is not an option. It doesn't look like evacuation will be necessary, just a battening down of the hatches.
We are spending the morning bringing in the kayaks, tables, chairs, etc. Looking at the trees for dead branches.

MILK......BREAD.....beer!!!!! Milk is on sale right now for under $4 a gallon by the way.

For some reason, the other model maps didn't update on SoWal, so here is this morning's models map. Those lines are still all over the place.

My brother and sister are just south of Tampa and trying to figure what to do at this point. don't want to head north, south or east...West is not an option. It doesn't look like evacuation will be necessary, just a battening down of the hatches.
We are spending the morning bringing in the kayaks, tables, chairs, etc. Looking at the trees for dead branches.

MILK......BREAD.....beer!!!!! Milk is on sale right now for under $4 a gallon by the way.

Rule number something in hurricane preparedness: eat all of your frozen foods now. Don't buy more food products which need refrigeration. Powdered milk works well enough for a few days, if you require milk. Buy ready to eat products, have a manual can-opener. Buy regular bleach for water purification and buy some Handi-wipes for cleaning hands without water. If you have access to some empty or filled 5 gallon bottled water containers, grab them, and use them if the storm approaches. They are very handy and pour fairly well. Fill your bathtubs (make sure the stoppers work well) with water just prior to storm for additional supply of water. You will want to make sure to thoroughly clean said bathtubs. ;-) You could also use that water for flushing toilets. Flush conservatively, because your sump pump won't pump when the power is out.

What's with the mad rush to the grocery? If items are truly "staples" you should have them on hand ALL the time, not just when a storm is expected!

my emergency kit is different than my usual staples. My emergency foods don't require refrigeration, and only minimum cooking, which I can do with propane stove or alcohol and a steel pineapple can. For ppl stocking up on bread, maybe they typically wait until they are close to being out before buying more, but with a storm on the way, they want to be sure to have some.