Tropical Storm Fay

Those lines are still all over the place.

But none over our area, thank God!

Well, that map shows only 8 of the models and they change them up (don't know why). For example, the NOGAPS model has been pointing at PC area quite a bit, but now it isn't on that most recent model map.

The models I am seeing show that we will be on the left (west) side of a storm that will be a 1 or less.

I always keep a small stock of yummy food that either doesn't need refrigeration or can be cooked w/ gas, but IMO extreme situations call for a evacucation, not armageddon style supplies!

i hear you and agree.

Mr. IBD has us supplied with MRE's. :roll: Not my choice of cuisine but I guess if it came down to it...

MRE = Meals Refused by Ethiopians. Had to eat them on a mountaineering excursion I did with the Army one time. Better than eating crickets and grubs, so its all relative. Tip number ? for emergency food items -- do not supply it with Oreos or other tasty food, b/c you will eat it way too fast and may run out of food. Stock it with nasty, but edible food, like MREs, and you are guaranteed to stretch them out.

You can do SO much better than MRE's!

One of my staples is jarred salmon - straight from the fishery in Alaska so it keeps for up to a year and makes a quick lunch or appetizer when served w/ crackers and fresh fruit.

trust me, I dont like them, if you only new my husband (SJ you do:roll he is Mr. "failing to prepare is preparing to fail" guy. He actually got excited b/c the last box had jambalaya and etoufee with little bottles of Tobasco.

We always have plenty of propane so we cook quite a bit on the grill. The MRE's have (thankfully) just sat in their box while we feasted on what is in the freezer.

MRE = Meals Refused by Ethiopians. Had to eat them on a mountaineering excursion I did with the Army one time. Better than eating crickets and grubs, so its all relative. Tip number ? for emergency food items -- do not supply it with Oreos or other tasty food, b/c you will eat it way too fast and may run out of food. Stock it with nasty, but edible food, like MREs, and you are guaranteed to stretch them out.

You can do SO much better than MRE's!

One of my staples is jarred salmon - straight from the fishery in Alaska so it keeps for up to a year and makes a quick lunch or appetizer when served w/ crackers and fresh fruit.

If you want some haute cuisine while hunkered down... http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5449979

One thing about models is that not all of them work well in all circumstances. According to the Storm 2K crowd, you can usually disregard the BAM models for this area- they were designed for and are most accurate when forecasting storms deep in the tropics and don't handle interaction with the North American landmass very well.

CLIP doesn't really work with current data at all- it's a description of what happened in the past with other storms of similar strength in a similar location. (It's included as a sort of error-check in a lot of model packages- if you're getting weirder results than CLIP, then you might be getting bad data or something)

One thing about models is that not all of them work well in all circumstances. According to the Storm 2K crowd, you can usually disregard the BAM models for this area- they were designed for and are most accurate when forecasting storms deep in the tropics and don't handle interaction with the North American landmass very well.

CLIP doesn't really work with current data at all- it's a description of what happened in the past with other storms of similar strength in a similar location. (It's included as a sort of error-check in a lot of model packages- if you're getting weirder results than CLIP, then you might be getting bad data or something)

Have a look at Jeff Masters' review of the models, at:

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/models.asp

At the time he wrote this (2005), none of the individual models were able to outperform the NHC official forecast in track prediction.

He updated the review 8-17-07. You'll have to scroll well down the archive, it has the whole month of August.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/archive.html?tstamp=200708

To grossly summarize his comments, the top ones at track prediction are GDFL, GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET, with HWRF as a new addition. Of the models that attempt to consolidate a consensus result, Florida State Superensemble is the best.

If you want some haute cuisine while hunkered down... http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5449979

One thing about models is that not all of them work well in all circumstances. According to the Storm 2K crowd, you can usually disregard the BAM models for this area- they were designed for and are most accurate when forecasting storms deep in the tropics and don't handle interaction with the North American landmass very well.

CLIP doesn't really work with current data at all- it's a description of what happened in the past with other storms of similar strength in a similar location. (It's included as a sort of error-check in a lot of model packages- if you're getting weirder results than CLIP, then you might be getting bad data or something)

The collective intelligence on this site is just one reason to love SoWal.com.

The collective intelligence on this site is just one reason to love SoWal.com.

I was trying to quote you but thanked you but that is ok. Yes, isn't it funny how we come to SoWal for information when we could just Google it.

How ironic that a State Farm Insurance ad appears on the Wunderground map tracking Fay across Florida.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200806_5day.html#a_topad

I don't know why they would waste such money advertising to a base of Florida users since they won't even insure here.

Of the models that attempt to consolidate a consensus result, Florida State Superensemble is the best.

I just wish they'd release the FSU Superensemble results to the public. (The people who run that model only share results with the NHC and paid subscribers) It's like the Elvis Lives! of hurricane modeling- everyone's heard of it, and it's reported to still be a heckava rock star, but very few people actually get to see it.

And when you goggle it; SoWal usually hits on the top rankings

I was trying to quote you but thanked you but that is ok. Yes, isn't it funny how we come to SoWal for information when we could just Google it.

And when you goggle it; SoWal usually hits on the top rankings

Hence;

Goggle Hurricane SoWal--

1. Hurricane Season...Are you Ready? - SoWal.com Forum
   
   Jul 25, 2005 ... Camp Creek Kid, All About SoWal, 12, 06-28-2005 02:25 PM. Hurricane Season Has Arrived (Arlene Info), Joe, All About SoWal ...
   www.sowal.com/bb/showthread.php?t=891 - 154k - Cached - Similar pages
   
2. September 13 - Hurricane Party at the Red Bar!! - SoWal.com Forum
   
   visit www.cvhnkids.org for more information ... Hurricane Season...Are you Ready? JC, All About SoWal, 19, 07-25-2005 09:58 AM ...
   www.sowal.com/bb/showthread.php?t=25827 - 51k - Cached - Similar pages
   More results from www.sowal.com ?

Looks like Nohall, GTTBM, BR and others will be getting some rain! Even better news is it looks like it will remain a tropical storm and not reach hurricane strength.

from last update

Looks like Nohall, GTTBM, BR and others will be getting some rain! Even better news is it looks like it will remain a tropical storm and not reach hurricane strength.

Nothing like a few adult beverages in the hot tub in the rain. Pepper and I will be at the beach from Friday until Labor Day.

Ironically we have functional hurricane shutters at our home in Georgia (the architect wanted to make the house an authentic Louisiana plantation home), but not at the beach. Go figure.

Actually we needed those hurricane shutters during Hurricane Opal in 1995. Those shutters really saved us. It was also my first year in Junior League, and we conducted our annual attic sale fundraiser with no power. We didn't have power at home for a week. Had to rent a motel room by I-85 to take a hot shower since our water heater is electric.

Some of the more reliable models are now showing Fay retrograding from the Atlantic back across Florida and into the Gulf south of Fla/Alabama line this weekend as a strengthening storm. The weather guy on Chanel 7 seemed to think it was rather plausible and that the hurricane center was likely to make significant changes to the forecast track tomorrow. Something to watch during the week.

This is a great story about Sea Turtles and Hurricane Fay. I admire these people, as I admire our turtle watchers here!

http://www.cnn.com/video/?/video/weather/2008/08/18/lowe.fl.fay.sea.turtles.wsvn

Looks like we are going to have a wet weekend. I guess we need the rain.

Fishing will be good. Those fish know when the storms are coming and they like to fee heavily before their environment gets all stirred up and thrown about. Expect good fishing from now through a few days after the storm passes.

Canuck caught a pompano off Grayton on Sunday!!

Fishing will be good. Those fish know when the storms are coming and they like to fee heavily before their environment gets all stirred up and thrown about. Expect good fishing from now through a few days after the storm passes.