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WCI says "cancellations outnumbering new orders" in the Florida Market

bdc63Beach Fanatic
3,133 views
CNBC has been talking about this story all morning. Thought some of you might find it interesting.

http://www.wcicommunities.com/investor.asp?pageID=investor&siteID=1000&vid=1000

WCI Communities Provides Preliminary Fourth Quarter Data

Bonita Springs, FL (January 23, 2007) ? WCI Communities, Inc. (NYSE: WCI), a leading builder of traditional and tower residences in highly amenitized lifestyle communities, today provided an update on operations, including data on recently completed towers as well as preliminary sales figures and estimates of fourth quarter impairment and write-off charges.

"Results for the fourth quarter will be below prior expectations due to a higher level of defaults than expected in both our Traditional Homebuilding and Tower Homebuilding operations, longer tower construction cycles, and the recording of significant impairments and write-offs", said Jerry Starkey, President and CEO of WCI Communities. "The operating environment in Florida continued to be challenging during the fourth quarter and resulted in cancellations outnumbering new orders in that market. We continue to focus on reducing costs, maximizing cash flow, and positioning our company to withstand a prolonged downturn in housing demand."

During the fourth quarter, seven towers, consisting of 342 total units, were completed, including 306 units that were previously sold. To-date, the company has closed 246 of those units, and defaulted 18 units in the fourth quarter. The majority of the remaining 42 units in these buildings that are sold but have not yet closed are anticipated to close in the next several weeks. However, additional defaults are possible from these units as it typically takes 45 to 60 days after a tower is completed to gauge the actual number of defaults. The 42 units that have not yet closed are located in three buildings that were completed late in December - Mosaic in Miami Beach (21 units), Tuscany at Hammock Dunes in Palm Coast (15 units) and Costa Verano in Jacksonville Beach (6 units). Units that default prior to the company's reporting of earnings will be reflected in the fourth quarter financial statements as will an estimate of additional defaults from units remaining sold but not closed, which will be reflected in the company's reserves. The company's practice is to retain customer deposits up to the legal amount allowable on defaulted units.

Edited

Replies

15
Babyblue avatar
BabyblueBeach Fanatic
#2
Pretty low default rate. Each day moving towards a sellers market.
bdc63Beach FanaticAuthor
#3
Pretty low default rate. Each day moving towards a sellers market.

well that's an interesting interpretation of the data ...

I guess 'positioning our company to withstand a prolonged downturn' equals sellers market

Edited

Babyblue avatar
BabyblueBeach Fanatic
#4
"Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

So do you mean this market can "Never RECOVER?" :confused:
SHELLY avatar
SHELLYSoWal Insider
#5
"Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

So do you mean this market can "Never RECOVER?" :confused:

Recover from what??? According the NAR, 2006 was the 3rd best year on record (the two previous years <'04 & '05> were market anomalies).

And given the reports of foreclosures and people walking away from deposits on houses/condos, Keynes was right about the irrational housing market of the past couple years--insolvency is signaling the end of that market.



.
Babyblue avatar
BabyblueBeach Fanatic
#6
Recover from what??? According the NAR, 2006 was the 3rd best year on record (the two previous years <'04 & '05> were market anomalies).

And given the reports of foreclosures and people walking away from deposits on houses/condos, Keynes was right about the irrational housing market of the past couple years--insolvency is signaling the end of that market.



.

So..you and I are in agreement! Good deal Shelly. This market, as all, will return to a normal pace of sales as you have told us in 03. How do you think Bush did tonight?
SHELLY avatar
SHELLYSoWal Insider
#7
So..you and I are in agreement! Good deal Shelly. This market, as all, will return to a normal pace of sales as you have told us in 03. How do you think Bush did tonight?

(1) What is your definition of "normal?"

(2) Bush's hair looked a bit less frizzy, must be that new cream rinse.
bdc63Beach FanaticAuthor
#8
"Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

So do you mean this market can "Never RECOVER?" :confused:

To the contrary ... I think that the market is in the process of "recovering" right now. But I suspect that you and I are 180 degrees apart on what "recover to nomal" suggests.

The Fed, through it's loose money policy (and aided and abetted by many others along the way) blow one gi-normous real estate bubble. We are in the process of "recovering" to normal price levels right now. Once prices are back on their trendline and make fundamental sense again (ie. the "median" family can afford the "median" home, "rents" are back in line with sales prices, etc.), sales will come back to normal levels. We're probably only a few years ... maybe a decade ... away from that day when things are normalized again.

And hopefully the Fed will have learned it's lesson, and stay out of the bubble blowing business for awhile.

Edited

6thGen avatar
6thGenBeach Fanatic
#9
It's funny that you post that quote by Keynes, since it is specifically Keynesian policies that set the boom/bust in motion. His quote works far better when applied to his own principles, rather than a Laissez-faire model.

Edited

bdc63Beach FanaticAuthor
#10
It's funny that you post that quote by Keynes, since it is specifically Keynesian policies that set the boom/bust in motion. His quote works far better when applied to his own principles, rather than a Laissez-faire model.

I wasn't trying to attach that quote to this post. It's in my personal profile (as one of my favorite quotes) so it appears on the bottom of all my posts. I'm not exactly a fan of Keynes, but I do love this quote.

I use it as a reminder to myself. Whenever I see a frenzy going on over something, my instincts are to bet against it. Bubbles always pop. But way too often the "irrational" frenzy continues on longer than I ever imagined possible. Its painful to hold onto the contrarian position when you got in too early.

Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Investing is all about timing - know when to get in and when to get out; know when to bet "for" and when to bet "against". Words to live by, as far as I'm concerned.

Edited

6thGen avatar
6thGenBeach Fanatic
#11
I agree and understand. With regard to money supply, it is part of the playing the neo-Keynesian hand you are dealt. Besides, a Laissez-faire model is not politically realistic. However, his statement is the equivalent to tripling the tax rate on pencil makers, then profoundly noting a year later that it is harder to find a pencil when you really need one.
Babyblue avatar
BabyblueBeach Fanatic
#12
Recover from what??? According the NAR, 2006 was the 3rd best year on record (the two previous years <'04 & '05> were market anomalies).

And given the reports of foreclosures and people walking away from deposits on houses/condos, Keynes was right about the irrational housing market of the past couple years--insolvency is signaling the end of that market.



.

Normal is something sells. The market now is not normal.
goofer avatar
gooferBeach Fanatic
#13
I agree and understand. With regard to money supply, it is part of the playing the neo-Keynesian hand you are dealt. Besides, a Laissez-faire model is not politically realistic. However, his statement is the equivalent to tripling the tax rate on pencil makers, then profoundly noting a year later that it is harder to find a pencil when you really need one.

6th gen
I love your reference to pencil-makers. Is that original? Very clever.
6thGen avatar
6thGenBeach Fanatic
#14
Thanks. As far as I know, it is original. I was recently reading something describing everything that went into making a pencil, so I guess it was stuck in my head.
SHELLY avatar
SHELLYSoWal Insider
#15
Normal is something sells. The market now is not normal.

BB,

You would probably appreciate the lastest episode of [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAhss0mWH6w"]YouTube - Flipper Nation: The Flippin' Fight (3)[/ame]
bdc63Beach FanaticAuthor
#16
BB,

You would probably appreciate the lastest episode of Flipper Nation.

You know there's a real estate bubble when ...

... you missed the latest episode of "Flipper Nation" because you were busy watching "Property Ladder" and TiVo was recording "Flip This House".

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