The Okaloosa - Walton Housing Summit, hosted by the Okaloosa and Walton County Health Improvement Partnership Committees, was held on Monday, May 13, 2024, at the Niceville Community Center. Topics included Live Local Act updates from the legislative session, economic and health impacts of housing, and related strategies.
Walton County Health Department Director Holly Holt explained the need for the summit. “Housing is an essential component to the growth of our healthy community. A healthy community should be one where an individual or family should not have to choose between housing and health.”
Attendees included State Representative Shane Abbott, Walton District 2 Commissioner Danny Glidewell, Walton County Planning Director Mac Carpenter, Walton County Economic Development Alliance Director Uriah Matthews and numerous Okaloosa County officials.
Representative Shane Abbott said he was struck by the number of public and private agencies that participated in the summit. “Everybody who is involved in housing in some shape, form or fashion was in the room. So that was amazing. There was something said in the early session that I thought was really good, which was that your local governments can look to see where they would like growth and housing to be at - and incentivize those areas. If the county has an area they think ‘This would be a good place to have infrastructure, and we want to try to steer housing and growth here’, that’s where we’ll incentivize it.
“We’re in a unique situation with both counties,” said Rep. Abbott. “We’re back to just pure supply and demand. We are in two of the fastest-growing counties in the entire state, the entire country, and so the demand is extremely high and when demand is that high, you lose affordability. I know everybody wants to be able to have affordable housing close to work-places, but sometimes you just have to look at the growth picture and go ‘That’s not going to work. I can’t put affordable housing on 30-A where all the restaurants are.’
Rep. Abbott said affordable housing can be done, but it won’t be easy due to land values. “By the time you buy the piece of sand it’s on, ‘affordable’ went out the window. We may be able to do affordable housing, but we may have to sacrifice driving distance. Probably, if we moved over to Holmes County and Washington County, we could probably build housing significantly cheaper than we can in Walton County.”
Abbott explained that the average sale price for a home in Okaloosa County is $300,000. In Walton County, it’s over $500,000. “When you have a demand like that, you can’t make housing affordable,” he said. “Then throw in the inflation rate, it just makes it even harder. It’s back to supply and demand.”
Commissioner Danny Glidewell noted that lack of truly affordable housing is not only one of the biggest problems in Walton County, but also among the most complex. “There are no easy solutions. Everybody recognizes the problem. We have a huge influx of people because Florida is where everybody wants to live,” he said. “Meanwhile, interest rates have gone up to where mortgages are not affordable. That’s not just mortgages on single family residents, that’s mortgage rates on multi-family structures, as well. So, developers are struggling to get financing for their projects. All those factors put together, and the huge inflationary increases in building costs – hardly anybody that is on a working wage can come close to affording any house at those rates.”
Glidewell said, “One of the solutions that was presented involved having government make land available to developers at a lower or no cost. That could be challenging politically, but it might be the only way we can get large production of housing. The underlying problem is ageless and simple. It’s basic economics – supply and demand,” he said. “Right now, we’ve got no supply and high demand. That’s going to create cost increases and that’s just the laws of economics.”
Economic Development Alliance Director Uriah Matthews also noted that, “The escalating housing costs have not only placed a burden on our residents but have also significantly increased the demands on nonprofits and community services. Housing is an essential element of economic development. The current pricing trends not only reflect a high demand but also highlight the urgent need for further development to stabilize costs. A healthy housing market is crucial for the well-being of our residents and the overall economic vitality of our community,” he added.
“As a representative of WCHIP, I would like to thank all of the partners who participated in the successful Housing Summit,” said Walton Health Department Director Holly Holt. “Key speakers, panel discussions and breakout sessions were held to move the discussion forward. WCHIP and OCHIP have workgroups taking steps to address housing in our community.”
Mike Jones
Mike JonesBeach Fanatic397 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach Fanatic
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29UofL
UofLBeach FanaticLouisville KY755 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach Fanatic
FYI one restaurant owner in our neighborhood has rented a home for his employees in our neighborhood. He is now building a new version of his restaurant which includes housing for his employees. Yes, Hispanic restaurant, mostly males. Maybe housing for students? We have to think out of the box when some businesses need employees where those employees can't afford to live. It's only going to get worse isn't it? Many of us wonder if our locals will be attacked by 'ice'. Ellen
Peak season updateUnsurprisingly All 3 of those you mention as doing well have advertised on this site which has a ton of long term rental activity.
Owl's Head asking $1.47 per foot - 70.3% vacant
Riverwalk asking $1.45 per foot - 24.4% vacant
Hammock Bay asking $1.88 per foot - 23.3% vacant
Dune Lake asking $1.89 per foot - 11.1% vacant
Sanctuary at 331 asking $1.78 per foot - 6.4% vacant
Terra Mar asking $1.76 per foot - 8.1% vacant
Beacon by SWHS asking $1.91 per foot - 63.1% vacant
Saltaire preleasing at $2.20 per foot
The Jewel (previously called it the pearl - multi near the neighborhood WM) asking $2.11 per foot, 60% vacant
Also new to the party are Ramsey Branch - east side of 331 south of 20 in Freeport - asking $1.82 per foot, 99.2% vacant and The Waters next to the Freeport Publix preleasing at $1.96 per foot.
Peak season, rents keep dropping and the only ones that I'm tracking that are near a stabilized occupancy are Sanctuary at 331, Terra Mar and to a lesser extent Dune Lakes. DL is also only covering 82% of their interest only debt from operational income as of FYE24.
Avg rents in Freeport dropped from $1.75 to $1.66 in the past 12 months. SW about the same but it's buoyed by new deliveries asking higher rates. If you take the 3 I looked at 12 months ago, avg rents went from $1.91 to $1.81. Vacancy in Freeport went from 61% to 50% in 12 months (61% to 30% not counting new deliveries) and 6% to 32% in SW (6% to 9% not counting new deliveries). Owl's Head dropped rents 25% and went from 90% vacant to 70% vacant in 12 months.
If this follows last year we should expect to see vacancy increase and rents decrease south of the bay after the summer season.
Pretty sure I said this before but the developers that are building these are underwriting to a 5-8% vacancy in year 3 with at least 3% annual rent growth and that's when they sell to a permanent owner like a REIT. I doubt Freeport gets inside a 10% vacancy for at least 3 more years and they'll have to do it with more rent drops. SW underwrote AT LEAST $2 per foot which is why you see preleasing and new deliveries there since they have a little margin of error to pretend they aren't above the market (and with concessions aka free months rent they are well inside of $2/ft). The vast majority of equity investors will get wiped out and several banks will have to take a loss to exit these.
PJJPJJBeach Lover137 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach Lover
Haven't updated in a while.
Freeport
Owl's Head asking $1.51 per foot - 49% vacant - 300 units
Riverwalk asking $1.48 per foot - 10.9% vacant - 312 units
Hammock Bay asking $1.88 per foot - 23.5% vacant - 400 units
Ramsey Branch (new build south of 20, east of 331) asking $1.68 per foot - 73.3% vacant - 258 units
Waters (next to Freeport Publix) asking $1.78 per foot - 85.4% vacant - 226 units
Also have Magnolia at Owl's Head on the east side of 331 under construction - 290 units.
Overall vacancy of these properties in Freeport is 44%. So 1,496 units (not counting under construction) of which 658 are unoccupied prior to the delivery of another 290 units.
South Walton
Dune Lake asking $1.88 per foot - 21.4% vacant - 280 units
Sanctuary at 331 asking $1.74 per foot - 10.2% vacant - 264 units
Terra Mar asking $1.57 per foot - 5.2% vacant - 310 units
Beacon by SWHS asking $1.92 per foot - 61.2% vacant - 260 units
Saltaire asking $2.19 per foot - 58.2% vacant (looks to be very understated) - 256 units
The Jewel asking $1.99 per foot, 41.9% vacant - 408 units
Overall vacancy of the SW properties above is 28% (although I think that's overstated based on what looks to be overstated occupancy at Saltaire). So 1,778 units represented above, of which at least 498 are vacant. Also Sandbar's (just west of Saltaire) 210 units will deliver soon.
Still a slow moving train wreck, although Freeport may come to a head soon with nearly 1,000 units unoccupied in Freeport alone once the other Owl's Head project delivers. Riverwalk seems to have it most figured out being that far south and keeping rents under $1.50 per foot and even they have at least 34 units empty.
Freeport
Owl's Head asking $1.51 per foot - 49% vacant - 300 units
Riverwalk asking $1.48 per foot - 10.9% vacant - 312 units
Hammock Bay asking $1.88 per foot - 23.5% vacant - 400 units
Ramsey Branch (new build south of 20, east of 331) asking $1.68 per foot - 73.3% vacant - 258 units
Waters (next to Freeport Publix) asking $1.78 per foot - 85.4% vacant - 226 units
Also have Magnolia at Owl's Head on the east side of 331 under construction - 290 units.
Overall vacancy of these properties in Freeport is 44%. So 1,496 units (not counting under construction) of which 658 are unoccupied prior to the delivery of another 290 units.
South Walton
Dune Lake asking $1.88 per foot - 21.4% vacant - 280 units
Sanctuary at 331 asking $1.74 per foot - 10.2% vacant - 264 units
Terra Mar asking $1.57 per foot - 5.2% vacant - 310 units
Beacon by SWHS asking $1.92 per foot - 61.2% vacant - 260 units
Saltaire asking $2.19 per foot - 58.2% vacant (looks to be very understated) - 256 units
The Jewel asking $1.99 per foot, 41.9% vacant - 408 units
Overall vacancy of the SW properties above is 28% (although I think that's overstated based on what looks to be overstated occupancy at Saltaire). So 1,778 units represented above, of which at least 498 are vacant. Also Sandbar's (just west of Saltaire) 210 units will deliver soon.
Still a slow moving train wreck, although Freeport may come to a head soon with nearly 1,000 units unoccupied in Freeport alone once the other Owl's Head project delivers. Riverwalk seems to have it most figured out being that far south and keeping rents under $1.50 per foot and even they have at least 34 units empty.
bob1bob1Beach Fanatic651 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach Fanatic
Thank you! Pretty wild numbers.
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