Tropical Storm OPHELIA

We are scheduled to head that way this weekend. What are the local stations saying about Ophelia?

Here is the latest from NOAA. This link will update at 10am Central.

As you can see at the time of this post, there is still a slight chance that this storm, which is now sitting still, can come our way. I understand that 2 models show the tracking of Ophelia crossing the Peninsula of FL and coming into the Gulf -- One aimed close to NOLA. Just keep a close eye on her. "Ophelia (Cecilia), You're Breakin' My Heart."

Wow. I hope it takes the red track!!! Or one that has it die out in the Atlantic. A lot of Atlantic side action right now with Hurricane Maria and Hurricane Nate sitting side by side off the Atlantic coast alittle further north than Ophelia so those storms appear not to be a threat to the panhandle. Both Maria and Nate currently show a track to the east and not looking like they will make any landfall (watch out Bermuda)!! TS Ophelia is the closest one to the Florida Atlantic coast but again it looks like the expected path is to the northeast and if landfall then Fla/Ga coast. Time will tell.

Mother Nature is sure rearing her ugly side again this year. :bang: :bang: :bang: :bang:

Wow. I hope it takes the red track!!!

Gee, thanks. That puts it straight into Tuscaloosa. 😱

Gee, thanks. That puts it straight into Tuscaloosa. 😱

Sorry as I said as well I hope they all just dies out in the ocean somewhere. I do not wish these storms on anybody/anywhere.

Arggggg. :bang: :bang: :bang:

I know the east coast of Florida is not too happy about a stationary tropical system developing at their front door. Looks like a lot of rain in store for east Florida and Southeastern Georgia!

Models Tracks & Floater Images

Now Impact Weather is predicting it to go through Florida into Alabama without going into the gulf. ...Impact Weather

Now Impact Weather is predicting it to go through Florida into Alabama without going into the gulf. ...Impact Weather

Any surf reports Dave?

Looks like Ophelia still has an equal probability of going any direction.:shock: It is just sitting there.

Any surf reports Dave?

Mostly continuing northeast winds; perhaps the Yucatan Peninsula will be going off!


GMZ750-770-081430-
APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN OUT TO 20 NM-
330 AM CDT THU SEP 8 2005

SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION

TODAY
NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 20 KNOTS BECOMING NORTH 10 TO 15
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET...SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET.
PROTECTED WATERS A MODERATE CHOP.

TONIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. PROTECTED
WATERS SMOOTH TO A LIGHT CHOP.

FRIDAY
NORTH WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. PROTECTED
WATERS SMOOTH TO A LIGHT CHOP.

FRIDAY NIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET.
PROTECTED WATERS SMOOTH.

SATURDAY
NORTH WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. PROTECTED
WATERS A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY
NORTHEAST WIND 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. PROTECTED
WATERS A MODERATE CHOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY
NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.
PROTECTED WATERS A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

wind from the north - break out the vinegar!

wind from the north - break out the vinegar!

Yep. White vinegar is the way to go with the dog flies!!! We used it all of last weekend and it worked great but does require frequent reapplication. The smell was not too bad and was more tolerable than the biting. :clap_1: :clap_1: :clap_1:

I have a theory about tropical storm and hurricane forecasts. I would really like to hear from someone more knowledgable about the meteorology bidness as to whether this is accurate.

First, there are a handful of computer models--BAM, GFDL, GFS, etc.--that are run throughout the day. They use data from Hurricane Hunter airplanes and weather satellites to simulate a computer-predicted track for the storm. This are shown in pictures that SJ & Kurt posted, above.

Second, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) looks at the results of these models as well as the raw data and then issues their predicted track. Typically, their track is a consensus, or "average", of all the models' tracks (although they may sometimes give a little more weight to one or the other). They do this four times every 24 hours (4:00 and 10:00 Central Time). Shown in the picture that SJ posted near the top.

Finally, EVERYTHING else you hear (Weather Channel, CNN, FoxNews, the guy on local TV with the bad hair, etc.) is nothing more than a re-hash of what the NHC said in its most recent update. So constant monitoring of those guys really gives you no further information (although if the storm is right on top of you, and they are monitoring via radar, they can give you warning of tornados or other immediate dangers).

Having said all that, is there any reason to look at anything other than NHC and/or the raw results of the models (which can be found at Crown Weather Services and WeatherUnderground among other places)?

Having said all that, is there any reason to look at anything other than NHC and/or the raw results of the models (which can be found at Crown Weather Services and WeatherUnderground among other places)?

I don't think so. Although I like to watch the sat loops.

More weird weather:

NOAA ISSUES SPACE WEATHER WARNING;
POWERFUL SOLAR FLARE ERUPTS 😱
KATRINA COMMUNICATIONS MAY HAVE BEEN AFFECTED
Forecasters at the NOAA Space Environment Center in Boulder, Colo., Wednesday observed one of the largest solar flares on record at 1:40 p.m. EDT. The forecasters are predicting significant solar eruptions in the coming days. Agencies impacted by space weather storms may experience disruptions over the next two weeks. These include spacecraft operations, electric power systems, high frequency communications and low-frequency navigation systems.

I didn't realize Hurricanes could move that extreme SW :?:

I have a theory about tropical storm and hurricane forecasts. I would really like to hear from someone more knowledgable about the meteorology bidness as to whether this is accurate.

First, there are a handful of computer models--BAM, GFDL, GFS, etc.--that are run throughout the day. They use data from Hurricane Hunter airplanes and weather satellites to simulate a computer-predicted track for the storm. This are shown in pictures that SJ & Kurt posted, above.

Second, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) looks at the results of these models as well as the raw data and then issues their predicted track. Typically, their track is a consensus, or "average", of all the models' tracks (although they may sometimes give a little more weight to one or the other). They do this four times every 24 hours (4:00 and 10:00 Central Time). Shown in the picture that SJ posted near the top.

Finally, EVERYTHING else you hear (Weather Channel, CNN, FoxNews, the guy on local TV with the bad hair, etc.) is nothing more than a re-hash of what the NHC said in its most recent update. So constant monitoring of those guys really gives you no further information (although if the storm is right on top of you, and they are monitoring via radar, they can give you warning of tornados or other immediate dangers).

Having said all that, is there any reason to look at anything other than NHC and/or the raw results of the models (which can be found at Crown Weather Services and WeatherUnderground among other places)?

I go right to the source, NOAA's NHC and I also like to gander at the models, but they are all over the place for most storms. Currently, all tracking models, except for the yellow one which has it going south around the pen. of FL and into the Gulf, show Opelia moving NE somewhat, before looping back around into FL. :shock:

Ophelia is now slated to head towards S. Carolina over the next few days.