Election predictions

Idlewind...thank you! I was on pins and needles wating til Tuesday evening....but now, I can just get on with my life. So glad Ralph is on his way to Tennessee.

Very good

Since I am honest and courageous,I will put myself out here and look into my crystal ball regarding tomorrow's results. Now that I am ready, here goes: ( no endorsement of any candidate is intended, ranked in order of certainty)

1. Mark Davis over ( can't remember opponent)- landside city, stone-cold lock.

2. Carlene Anderson over Hutchinson- experience counts

3. Larry Jones over Johnny Smith- experience counts #2

4. Mildred Wilkerson over the field- we get a tax increase out of the deal:angry:

5. D-5:

1. C. Jones
2. Osbourne
3. Hudson
4. Bernstein
5. Smith (prize to Smith for best political name for a phantom candidate)

6. Sheriff:

1. Cooper ( by a nose)
2. Adkinson ( longer nose)
3. Cornman
4. Johnson ( leaving town after the vote)
5. Brown
6. Macon
7. Wise ( over/under on Wise is 3%) :scratch:Why did he run?

If I am right I will need funds from all of you to pay for this expertise.:funn:If I am wrong, blame it on the crystal ball.


I am out of here.

Wow, very good, very good indeed. I will add to your predictions and say that the real police will step up after defeat and support the elected Republican candidate. The others will play silly games and pitch a fit, on and on, etc, etc, etc.

RJ will leave town, only to be called back by Subpoena, after subpoena, subpoena, etc, etc.

I will be a happy Watcher once RJ is gone. Men and Women of WCSO, your relief and your back up is coming... watch your 6.

I agree with your predictions with the exeption on Cecelia Jones....I don't see her strength in the polls....or in the community. Is she that strong up north??

In a word yes.

PS - The red chicklett disappeared again -- thanks to whoever gave me the rep.

I'm cracking up, following your chicklett drama... But I'm laughing with you and not at you so it's OK.

In a word yes.

PS - The red chicklett disappeared again -- thanks to whoever gave me the rep.

Idlewind...thank you! I was on pins and needles wating til Tuesday evening....but now, I can just get on with my life. So glad Ralph is on his way to Tennessee.

Glad to be of service.

What's the logic behind predicting that the same district that elected Cindy Meadows will elect Cecilia Jones to replace her?

What's the logic behind predicting that the same district that elected Cindy Meadows will elect Cecilia Jones to replace her?

Good point!!!

What's the logic behind predicting that the same district that elected Cindy Meadows will elect Cecilia Jones to replace her?

Low turnout in the southern districts and high popularity for Cecilia in the northern districts.
The whole county chooses, not just district 5.

Low turnout in the southern districts and high popularity for Cecilia in the northern districts.
The whole county chooses, not just district 5.

....for real? that is not right! y'all need some reform down there!

....for real? that is not right! y'all need some reform down there!

Yep, all 35,000+ registered voters in this county have a say in that election.
Only precincts 29, 18, and part of 15 exist in dist. 5
So, technically, if the voting in that race was left only up to residents of 5, no one east of 395 would be voting in it.

Low turnout in the southern districts and high popularity for Cecilia in the northern districts.
The whole county chooses, not just district 5.

well, there is tomorrow.........the MAIN voting day I might add. Don't count us out yet.

Sowal!!!!!! VOTE

well, there is tomorrow.........the MAIN voting day I might add. Don't count us out yet.

Sowal!!!!!! VOTE

Oh, I'm not counting anyone out, just showing them why it's so important to turn out. I truly hope I'm surprised and proud of the turnout in 1 and 5 tomorrow.

Yep, all 35,000+ registered voters in this county have a say in that election.
Only precincts 29, 18, and part of 15 exist in dist. 5
So, technically, if the voting in that race was left only up to residents of 5, no one east of 395 would be voting in it.

That may be correct, but Dist 1 (areas east of hwy 395) would already have their voice sitting in a chair.

That may be correct, but Dist 1 (areas east of hwy 395) would already have their voice sitting in a chair.

Correct. I was just pointing out that it isn't really a north/south thing when it comes to 5 by itself.
I don't really have a full understanding of why it is set up the way it is (a matter of history?), but I do question the purpose. I mean, I don't get to decide the house representative for the Tampa area, which makes perfect sense in my head. I would love to hear the argument for why we do it this way.

I would also like to know that answer. Maybe at one time, South Walton Dist 5 didn't have enough residents to really represent a fifth of the County??? or, maybe the peeps in North Walton didn't want to lose control, so just pretended to let the race for Dist 5 appear to be fair??? I have no idea.

Perhaps when Cecelia wins the seat with about 5% of of the vote in the district she'd supposedly represent, but is still the winner, we can all say thanks to the Republican Party of Walton County for allowing someone who is not a member of the community to run for office in a district where she doesn't reside and exploit the system, and exploit the five way race.

Lee Perry was backed by a ton of money and there were a lot of people shocked that Cindy won. She had the votes of a lot of people in the south and I don't think she had opposition other than Lee. It's possible there are too many candidates to split the vote and Jones could walk in the back door. This scenario could be prevented by a strong league of voters backing one candidate early. No doubt Osbourne would trounce anyone else if Hudson and Braunstein weren't running. He might still pull it out. I won't vote for Jones because she trashed my beautiful SoWal with her signs. That's like slapping me and then asking for a kiss.

Perhaps when Cecelia wins the seat with about 5% of of the vote in the district she'd supposedly represent, but is still the winner, we can all say thanks to the Republican Party of Walton County for allowing someone who is not a member of the community to run for office in a district where she doesn't reside and exploit the system, and exploit the five way race.

Well... the party can't stop her from running. Anyone is free to put themselves on the ballot. And, I don't think anyone can truly say they know for a fact she doesn't live in 5. She owns a couple homes in 5. She just happens to have more connections on the other side of the bay than most... but she's also lived here longer than the other candidates.

There is no excuse not to vote today- it's just a little rainy. SoWal won't have a real voice until more of us show up to the party.

idlewind: I will have to respectfully disagree with your crystal ball on a couple races:
Although Cecilia may poll strong in the north, I don't think she will be the overall
winner. I think it will be neck to neck with Osbourn and Hudson?

For the Sherriff, I believe that Adkinson will be the front runner to go up against the
the dem in November.

These are just my thoughts, i haven't seen any polls, i have just been fortunate enough to have friends/family throughout the entire county.

Lee Perry was backed by a ton of money and there were a lot of people shocked that Cindy won. She had the votes of a lot of people in the south and I don't think she had opposition other than Lee. It's possible there are too many candidates to split the vote and Jones could walk in the back door. This scenario could be prevented by a strong league of voters backing one candidate early. No doubt Osbourne would trounce anyone else if Hudson and Braunstein weren't running. He might still pull it out. I won't vote for Jones because she trashed my beautiful SoWal with her signs. That's like slapping me and then asking for a kiss.

A league of voters is not the answer, especially in a market with such limited media -- the nomination primary being used as general election is the problem. The solution is two strong parties.

Well... the party can't stop her from running. Anyone is free to put themselves on the ballot. And, I don't think anyone can truly say they know for a fact she doesn't live in 5. She owns a couple homes in 5. She just happens to have more connections on the other side of the bay than most... but she's also lived here longer than the other candidates.

She didn't just show up with the proper forms, she's been an active member of the party and serves as committeewoman for her Defuniak district. The Republicans did nothing to dissuade her from pulling this little coup. She's sneaking in the backdoor in a five way Republican primary. It's only a five way race because the Republicans are so dominant in this county that they are running unopposed.

Had a Democrat entered the race, the whole "switch parties so you have a say in the election" talking point would have been trotted out as it has in the past. The Dems would have been further weakened because people tend to buy that fallacy. It's now reached the point where the Dems are afraid to field candidates -- so we never get the two person match-up in the fall.

Walton County has always been a one party county. First it was a Democratic county, then it all switched to Republican. It's a broken system. Surely there is some small diversity of thought in this county. If you don't like Democratic party, join it and change it at the county level. That's pretty easy to do in a small county. Dems can be fiscally conservative and support high quality education, not the rural second tier sort of system we have. Dems can be more conservative than the Republicans if the problem that this county is just 100% conservative. Regardless of political persuation, the system is broken and the only real solution is two strong local parties. We've outgrown the Boss Hogg-style politics.

Walton Politics

Correct. I was just pointing out that it isn't really a north/south thing when it comes to 5 by itself.
I don't really have a full understanding of why it is set up the way it is (a matter of history?), but I do question the purpose. I mean, I don't get to decide the house representative for the Tampa area, which makes perfect sense in my head. I would love to hear the argument for why we do it this way.

I have been watching this site for months now, silently. Now that election day is here I don't mind speaking up. There are a couple of things about Walton Politics that really disturb me. One is that the Commissioners must run countywide. As ck stated that is not proper represetntation. and NO, it has not always been that way. We all need to work together to change this. Second something that has been discussed on this forum, the second primary was removed by the state. This is one way the incumbant has a strong advantage when there are more than 2 in a particular race. This is something else we need to work toward changing.

When this election is over this county needs to unite to make changes in both of these areas.

When we could only vote for the BCC rep in our own district, the issue was that we could not help select the other 4 seats. That's why it is countywide now. Of course, there is one major drawback to that...like now.

Not to crow, but I was correct in 5/6 races. The candidate I was wrong on polled 55% at Miramar, 41% at Point Washington, but unfortunately only 5 people apparently voted. I sure hate I was right about D-5, but SoWal split and the north candidate ran away with it. Congrats to all the winners and the losers can join me for a round