Ike

That's not good. :shock:

Oh for God's sake, enough already!

On the news this evening it looked at one point that Ike crosses the tail end of Hanna as it goes up the Atlantic coast before crossing into the gulf. Wonder how rare a thing that is. Josephine is behind that one, no telling what will go on with that one.

I think Ike is going to do the Fujiwara dance with Hanna. Weather or not they marry each other remains to be seen. Since Ike is the dominant one, Hanna could be exhausted during the marriage.

Ike is the insurers' nightmare, and the lenders and sellers saving grace.

I think Ike is going to do the Fujiwara dance with Hanna. Weather or not they marry each other remains to be seen. Since Ike is the dominant one, Hanna could be exhausted during the marriage.

Yeah, Tina said years ago Ike was a dominant kind of guy.

On the news this evening it looked at one point that Ike crosses the tail end of Hanna as it goes up the Atlantic coast before crossing into the gulf. Wonder how rare a thing that is. Josephine is behind that one, no telling what will go on with that one.

I heard Josephine was most likely going to get torn up before it ever makes it over here, and Hanna pretty lame, probably a cat 1 when it makes land fall. Nothing major there.

Ike on the other hand scares me a bit, already at cat 4, plus how many times have we seen these tracks move westward as they approach Florida?

From Jeff Masters' blog on http://www.wunderground.com

Track forecast for Ike
The models are split into two distinct camps on the 1-3 day track of Ike. The UKMET/GFS/HWRF models allow Ike go go a bit further north initially, then show less of a southerly component of motion than the other models. The other camp of models, the NOGAPS/ECMWF/GFDN/GFDL, take Ike further south, and have more of a southward component of motion, with a threat to Cuba and Hispaniola by this weekend. The NHC forecast splits the difference between these extremes, and probably has higher uncertainty than average. Climatology, as seen in the latest historical comparison of similar hurricanes in the past, favors the more northerly track. Only one out of ten similar past storms has made landfall in the U.S. as a hurricane. <I like those odds. >

The longer term fate of Ike remains highly uncertain--as usual. If Ike follows the southern camp of models, it may hit eastern Cuba, as forecast by the latest (06Z, 2am EDT) runs of the NOGAPS and GFDL models. A hit on Cuba would severely disrupt the storm, weakening it to a Category 1 or 2. If Ike misses Cuba, South Florida can expect a highly dangerous major hurricane on its doorstep Tuesday. On Tuesday, a trough of low pressure is forecast by most of the models to turn Ike to the north. The timing and strength of this trough will be critical in determining the fate of South Florida. The GFS model turns Ike well east of Florida, sending the storm out to sea without affecting the U.S. The ECMWF model turns Ike directly over South Florida, while the NOGAPS model foresees recurvature just offshore, through the western Bahama Islands. It is impossible to know at this time when or if Ike will turn to the north, and whether Florida might be spared the full brunt of Ike. Ike may be a threat to North Carolina in the longer term, and one possible scenario for the hurricane would be a repeat of Hurricane Floyd of 1999. Floyd bore down on Florida as a borderline Category 4/5 hurricane before turning at the last moment, eventually hitting North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane. Another scenario, which is suggested by the ECMWF model, is that Ike would recurve but not get pulled all the way out to sea. Instead, Ike might get trapped in a region of weak steering currents and wander for a few days, like Fay and now Gustav have done. This could occur offshore the East Coast, or over the Florida Peninsula.

pretty cool interactive site a friend just forwarded me.
http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-ike-2008

Yeah, Tina said years ago Ike was a dominant kind of guy.

That was our first thought.

All models now have Ike either hitting South Florida or going into the gulf.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_model.html#a_topad

All models now have Ike either hitting South Florida or going into the gulf.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_model.html#a_topad

Not all of them. Just all of them that Weather Underground uses. ;-)

From the service I watch, it's still a crap shoot at this point, but the entire Florida Peninsula is still in play, not to mention Georgia and the Carolinas in a 7 day window.

Reminds me of Andrew -

When Max Mayfield gets on the television and discusses IKE with the recommendation that everyone in South Florida needs to be preparing their Hurricane plan.....that is concerning....

He did that this evening..... Bad Boy Coming......

Not all of them. Just all of them that Weather Underground uses. ;-)

From the service I watch, it's still a crap shoot at this point, but the entire Florida Peninsula is still in play, not to mention Georgia and the Carolinas in a 7 day window.

Waiting for your instructions, oh wise one.

Waiting for your instructions, oh wise one.

Quit drinkin the Kool Aid!!!:funn:

Quit drinkin the Kool Aid!!!:funn:

Quit drinkin the Kool Aid!!!:funn:

Honey, I trust the guy that may be housesitting for me when I evacuate.;-)

Waiting for your instructions, oh wise one.

Be still.

Ugh -- in addition to all the obvious reasons, we do NOT need a direct hit on South Florida by a Cat 3 hurricane. Paging Warren Buffett ...

Ugh -- in addition to all the obvious reasons, we do NOT need a direct hit on South Florida by a Cat 3 hurricane. Paging Warren Buffett ...

History may well repeat itself if Ike hits Miami:

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The U.S. state of Florida's first real estate bubble burst in 1925, leaving behind entire new cities and the remains of failed development projects such as Isola di Lolando in north Biscayne Bay. The preceding land boom shaped Florida's future for decades and created entire new cities out of virgin swamp land that remain today. The story includes many parallels to the modern real estate boom, including the forces of outside speculators, hurricanes, easy credit access for buyers, and rapidly-appreciating property values.

By the 1920s, economic prosperity had set the conditions for a real estate bubble in Florida. Miami had an image as a tropical paradise and outside investors across the United States began taking an interest in Miami real estate. Due in part to the publicity talents of audacious developers like Carl G. Fisher of Miami Beach, famous for purchasing a huge lighted billboard in New York's Times Square proclaiming "It's June In Miami", property prices rose rapidly on speculation and a land and development boom ensued.

By January 1925, investors were beginning to read negative press about Florida investments. Forbes magazine warned that Florida land prices were based solely upon the expectation of finding a customer, not upon any reality of land value. New York bankers and the IRS both began to scrutinize the Florida real estate boom as a giant sham operation. Speculators intent on flipping properties at huge profits began to have a difficult time finding new buyers. The inevitable bursting of the real estate bubble had begun.

In October 1925, in an effort to improve Florida's clogged rail system, the railroad companies placed an embargo on all railway goods other than food, which further contributed to Florida's skyrocketing cost of living. New buyers failed to arrive, and the property price escalation that fueled the land boom stopped. The days of Miami properties being bought and sold at auction as many as ten times in one day were over. The first Florida real estate bubble had burst.

The next year brought the 1926 Miami Hurricane, which drove audacious Biscayne Bay develpoment projects such as Isola di Lolando into bankruptcy. The 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane and the Wall Street Crash of 1929 continued the catastrophic downward economic trend, and the Florida land boom was officially over as the Great Depression began.

Be still.

Yes Obi Wan Hurricane Kanobi.

Ike Predictiion as of 5 AM Friday 9/5

The latest long-term tracks have Ike coming into the Gulf.

Right now the long term model has it following in Gustav's footsteps.

Here's where they (currently) think it will be next Friday (9/12).

Yes Obi Wan Hurricane Kanobi.

Stellar! May the hurricane force not be with you.

The latest long-term tracks have Ike coming into the Gulf.

Right now the long term model has it following in Gustav's footsteps.

Here's where they (currently) think it will be next Friday (9/12).