2011 Hurricane Season

Well there is a low pressure area crossing central Florida and will enter the Gulf. At this point tropical formation is not expected but we might get some much needed rain out of it.

Tropicwatch

Looks like the first storm of the season might be trying form in the Caribbean. No way to say which way it will go at this point. It is just meandering around. Tropicwatch

NHC is now saying that there's a 50% chance of development with Invest 94 and the early forecast tracks have actually narrowed a bit to LA through central Cuba. Given how dry it's been here, a nice, slow-moving weak tropical storm in the northern Gulf wouldn't be the worst thing that could happen.

You are right about that, a good drenching sure would help.

This front is becoming interesting. It looks like there is low pressure at the tail end of it around Brownsville Texas. The upper level winds appear to be somewhat favorable. I would not be surprised to see it mentioned in the 2pm or 8pm advisory today.

Tropicwatch

My guy's take on that....

"I am not too concerned about this area at the moment, based on the proximity to land, and current forecast steering which indicates a slow drift north, to NNE, but will keep tabs on it, as upper level winds in the extreme Western GOMEX are semi-favorable at the moment."

http://www.stormw.com/

Well it never happened off of brownsville. The tropical weather models are indicating that a wave in western carribean will pass over Yucatan and enter the bay of Campeche. Once there, conditions are supposed to be favorable for development. Whatever happens then it will probably end up along the northern border of Mexico with Texas around the 4th of July.

Tropicwatch

Area in BOC now is Invest 95. Models still tracking to the west.

Tropicwatch

Invest 95 is TS Arlene.

Tropicwatch

Invest 96 is up and looks like it will bring some much needed rain to northwest Florida this weekend. Some of the models are hinting at a tropical depression forming. Conditions are currently not that great for development but appear to be getting better.

Tropicwatch

Would love to have rain.

Would love to get some too. Unfortunately right now most of the models bring the bulk of the system into North Florida east of Panama City to the big bend but the models are subject to change drastically at this point.

There is a hurricane hunter schedule to go check it out tomorrow morning.

Tropicwatch

Chances for development have diminished but we should still get some rain.

Keeping an eye on 97L - checking my supplies.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

It should be pointed out that all three Invests have the potential to become tropical cyclones over the next two to three days. At this point, only Invest 97L has the potential to significantly impact the Caribbean and the possibly the US Gulf Coast or Southeast US coast in the next seven to ten days.

Keeping an eye on 97L - checking my supplies.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

It should be pointed out that all three Invests have the potential to become tropical cyclones over the next two to three days. At this point, only Invest 97L has the potential to significantly impact the Caribbean and the possibly the US Gulf Coast or Southeast US coast in the next seven to ten days.

Do not want Invest 97 coming into the gulf. We are supposed to be coming into Panama City Beach next Saturday. We've never been kept from coming due to a tropical storm. And we've already paid $1500 including the deposit.

Global models are suggesting tropical formation in the GOM over the next week with a possibility of it having a low enough pressure by next week to support a hurricane. The models also indicate movement towards the northern Gulf Coast. Of course with any developing system, the models have a tendancy to change drastically. Something to watch wait and see. Tropicwatch

.
Texas is praying for a system to come into the Gulf! Hope it makes it to our coast and becomes a rain event. We need it to SLOWLY move across TX dropping some much needed rain! Things are dire here!

.

I know how it is with what they are calling the death ridge. Hopefully what might be Lee in the future will drift westward which it is possible because the steering currents are forecast to be light and the high pressure ridge should move more to the north. This might give it the westward push. Unfortunately there in an upper level low is the northern gulf that might prevent the westward move but I hop not. Tropicwatch