Hurricane Irma

Oh, I agree, but we still have approximately three days, if it doesn't turn north and east, to evacuate. I have gas, I bought a bottle of water, but I'm thinking the batteries were suppose to be for remote controls and transistor radios, then I got confused...

The only time you should go outside during a hurricane is to turn off your sprinkler system if it happens to turn on, because shame on you for running your sprinkler while it's raining. Very wasteful!

Where is Craig Fugate when you need him.

This is the 2AM Thursday Map from NOAA. The western edge of the cone has moved very little in the last 12 hours. If the cone drifts over past Cape San Blas, then the ballgame will have changed.

A lot of Florida building codes changed post Andrew. Millions of buildings since then are about to be tested severely.

30,000,000 fish in danger along Irma's path

5PM ADVISORY: Not surprised to see that the NHC forecast for #Irma has shifted a bit west. The entire FL Panhandle may deal with the eye.

What site do you use?

@hurricanetrackerapp on Twitter
Hurrtacker.com
Info from their twitter feed.

crapola

here is some sweet news about Harvey & Irma

Harvey and Irma, Married 75 Years, Marvel at the Storms Bearing Their Names



Harvey and Irma Schluter have been married for 75 years. He turned 104 in July; she will be 93 in November.

They vividly remember many of the major events of the 20th century, from her first time spotting an airplane, during the Great Depression, to his wonder at watching Neil Armstrong walk on the moon. In a recent phone interview, Mrs. Schluter even recalled the weather near her home in Spokane, Wash., on the day that President John F. Kennedy was assassinated. (Cool and cloudy.)

But never before have they seen two major hurricanes bearing their names threaten the United States.

“I don’t know how they’ve done that, to have a Harvey and Irma,” Mrs. Schluter said Wednesday. “I don’t know how that worked out.”

There’s a simple explanation. Since 1979, the World Meteorological Organization has alternated men’s and women’s names for tropical storms born over the Atlantic.

Six master lists of names are kept and used in rotation, so the more minor hurricane names of 2017 will make another appearance in 2023. Only hurricanes that are costly or deadly enough to be memorable have their names retired.

nytimes
sept 7 2017

Soo... We are supposed to be vacationing near Seaside next week. Leaving Saturday. IF(and I know it's a big IF) Irma keeps on her current course and doesn't drift any further west that she did today, would it still be safe to go??

We can handle a few rainy days, but I'm not so sure about hurricane force winds, etc.

If the predicted path slides too much further west, we will obviously stay home.

Soo... We are supposed to be vacationing near Seaside next week. Leaving Saturday. IF(and I know it's a big IF) Irma keeps on her current course and doesn't drift any further west that she did today, would it still be safe to go??

We can handle a few rainy days, but I'm not so sure about hurricane force winds, etc.

If the predicted path slides too much further west, we will obviously stay home.

WHat time you leave to head here?

Just got a message that Walton County Schools are closed tomorrow and Monday.

We are planning on coming down to our house in Miramar Beach Saturday. We are flying in, so we can't bring supplies with us. How are things at Publix, Walmart, etc.? Are water and other supplies available again?

WHat time you leave to head here?

Midnight. Should arrive around noon on Saturday.

We've been coming to Sowal for years and never had hurricane issues!

Where is Craig Fugate when you need him.

He was on MSNBC earlier- got a glimpse of him when we were switching over to watch Rachel's show.

Midnight. Should arrive around noon on Saturday.

We've been coming to Sowal for years and never had hurricane issues!

I'm afraid midnight Friday is going to be too early to know for sure what's going to happen here. I am nervous over the next 48 hours for us. And heartsick for the Caribbean, Miami and whoever else is in the path.

It's possible that this storm, and weather in general, is becoming a bit too unpredictable but here's my two cents ... I feel that when Irma reaches the peninsula at around Miami's latitude (Sunday AM) and the track is still east of the spine of Florida we should be OK. Even if it moves north from there and were to swerve west to us the intensity would be mitigated by the time it reached us because of it being over land for most of the path from there to here. And the eye would likely pass to the east of us which means we wouldn't get the brunt.

However if a western turn happens below the peninsula with the path to us being mostly over water we could be facing a severe threat.

Another thought is that If our rentals get filled up over the next 2 days with Florida/Georgia/South Carolina evacuees then that would cause problems concerning local resources and evacuations (traffic) from here if the path moves to us.

Kurt is right. The fact that is still so far away means that it will be moving quickly the next few days and if it moves over the peninsula into the Gulf, and intensifies, (both, big ifs at this time) we wouldn't have a great deal of time to leave. I am probably going to start making preparations on Saturday, but will be watching the maps really really closely. If it did move more further west, we might feel first effects by early Monday, so leaving would be possible and prudent on Sunday. I've been checking the driving time it takes to get to Mobile on Google Maps, all day yesterday, and saw no change in time whatsoever. I'll keep checking today to see if any changes occur from new evacuees on the highways.

..... If our rentals get filled up over the next 2 days with Florida/Georgia/South Carolina evacuees then that would cause problems concerning local resources and evacuations (traffic) from here if the path moves to us.

This is my concern. The mass exodus out of SFLA and the S. East Coast will be congesting our area.

A small shift(100 miles) in this storm to the west will put us in real weather. Because of this, I am getting my place together today so we can get out if need be. If it makes a last minute shift to the west, there wont be any time to prepare other than just head north/west.

Walton County Emergency Management Assisting with Sheltering Evacuees for Hurricane Irma – Shelter Opening at Noon, Citizen Information Center Activated



DeFuniak Springs, FL – 10:45AM - At the request of the Florida State Emergency Operations Center and provide services to our fellow Floridians, Walton County Emergency Management has activated the Emergency Operations Center to a Level 2 – Partial Activation to support the opening a host shelter to shelter evacuees fleeing the Florida peninsula. The Citizen Information Center has also been activated.



The Walton County host shelter will begin operation today at 12:00 PM at the following location:



Shelter: Southwide Baptist Church

Address: 1307 Coy Burgess Loop, DeFuniak Springs, FL 32533



In addition to the opening of the shelter, Walton County Emergency Management has activated the Citizen Information Center at the Emergency Operations Center. The Center will be staffed to assist with the distribution of information to Walton County residents, visitors and any evacuees that may arrive in Walton County.



Citizen Information Line: (850) 892-8392 or (850) 892-8394 or you can dial 2-1-1



Currently, for Walton County, we are not expecting any impacts from the storm as Walton County is just outside the 5 day error cone. This could changes however as Hurricane Irma’s track has been trending west based on the last few weather advisories.



Additional Information:



· To receive updates on County actions during a disaster like a hurricane follow our social media accounts.

o Facebook: Walton County Emergency Management (Walton County Emergency Management)

o Twitter: @WaltonCountyEM

o Website: Emergency Management | Walton County, FL - Home Page

o For Florida interstate information: FL511 | Florida Traffic | Commuter Information



· Additional Host Shelters in the Area:

o Santa Rosa County has also opened a host shelter that is located at Christian Life Church, 4491 Avalon Blvd, Milton FL

We are scheduled to start driving Monday. Can cancel our Greenville AL motel stop by 4:00 pm Monday. Tues. am, we planned of course to head south to Seaside. Paid for, of course. (Might get some refund from credit card. Haven't had this happen in 25 plus years of coming to the area.) We are going to finish packing Sunday, as if we are driving Monday - unless there is more certainty by then. Winds/rain could be a issue. Gas could be an issue. Don't want to be part of the problem for a vacation. We might just stay in Louisville for another day or two, but again, gas and other supplies are an issue.
Can't believe the destruction the southern states are experiencing.
So sorry.
Ellen

Concerning hurricanes and the Florida panhandle - Looks like Irma will probably not happen here BUT remember it's not if, it's when.

I'm about 10% worried as of now because the modeling and forecasting ability has improved so much. If you all have not discovered Mike's Weather Page... powered by Sparks Energy!, aka "Mike's Weather Page", it is my go-to for analysis. Mike also has a great Facebook page and does live sessions several times per day.

As for predictions, and not to scare people, but just to be aware, this is the prediction map for Ivan at about this time back in 2004. And remember, modeling and predictive ability has much improved since in 14 years.

http://www.greatdreams.com/weather/hurricane-ivan-91004.gif

That prediction map for Ivan shows that, in that time frame, we and Pensacola were well inside the cone of possibility, so, in that respect, that map was completely "accurate". Pinpointing landfall 5 days out isn't feasible.

Concerning hurricanes and the Florida panhandle - Looks like Irma will probably not happen here BUT remember it's not if, it's when.

Unfortunately all of these media outlets keep showing different things each time. Now it's showing all of my state possibly being affected by it when yesterday it was just East Tennessee. And now they are showing just past PC Beach across the entire state possibly affected now. We have our vacation paid for and are still a week away from our trip. They can't predict ahead that far away.