Okay, I'm calling it - recession's over

traffic is way up too...

Silly girl, it wasn't a recession, it was winter.

Silly girl, it wasn't a recession, it was winter.

Yep, a 4-year winter - and a cold one, too.

The crowds! They are everywhere. All shopping - packed. All dining - packed. Reservations up and rental companies adding staff to keep pace. In sowal at least, consumer confidence appears to be way up. Your thoughts?

huzzah!

It's a procession.

recessions over? kansas city closing 1/2 there schools next year. almost every state from cal to new jersey in massive crisis mode and about to cut jobs and expenses left and right. real unemployment 17%.consumer confidence and housing #'s still near there all time lows.i think you're mistaken $12 trillion of fed spending that has indebted our country to the wall for life with a real economic recovery.actually i'm willing to bet we're another japan due to the feds senseless and irresponsible spending. the country has yet again refused to pay the piper and has just insured this takes much longer to get out of.

In my view, what's happening may be that people who are doing OK (and OK enough) are feeling more confident to take a vacation. And SoWal is a great deal. Many rentals in SoWal are still rented for lower rates than in 2005 (mine are) because of the economy. So, for people who can take a vacation, many of them are getting a great vacation at a great rate. Next year, my guess is rental rates will start inching in (and probably have already this year a bit).

There's a certain segment of the population that is finding this a perfect time to vacation.

No end of recession here. Contracts just came out for faculty. Second year in a row with no increases for anyone. The dean said we're lucky that there were no decreases. Newer faculty were hired in having to teach three semester hours less than the rest of us, presumably so they'd spend that extra time publishing papers. Most didn't. So they all are being required to teach the same number of semester hours we are, for no additional pay. Actually the new hires were brought in at six figures, so they started out making about as much as we are. They'll be the first to go because they don't have tenure.

Classrooms are being rearranged so that we can teach larger sections of classes. Small classes are being cancelled. Things will really get bad if the state legislature decides to stop giving automatic pay increases to teachers who get advanced degrees (masters, MAT, and Ed.S.). About 20% of our students are students in that situation. They will go bye-bye if the state legislature decides that pay increases should be based on merit, not degrees. If they go bye-bye, we're in trouble.

The state university system is considering drastic changes to save money. It's scary right now in education. Thank God I have tenure and can teach in three areas: computer science (M.S.), mathematics (B.S., M.S., Ph.D.), and education (all but thesis for a M.A. in education -- quit the degree because it was so easy that it was an insult to my intelligence). Also I can teach some engineering courses (played around in the Industrial and Systems Engineering department at UF for a while).

Tell that to my grandson who graduated from OSU almost two years ago with a 5 year engineering technology degree, immediately went to work in Tulsa and the company folded about six months later. He's been unemployed ever since. If you're employed but things are bad, its a recession. If you become unemployed, its a depression.
You're right about here, though. I think some are spending it while the have it. It seems to be the right thing to do these days, whether you have it or not.

Okay, I'm calling it - Winter's over
fixed it for you.

Okay, I'm calling it - Winter's over
fixed it for you.

Thanks, dbcooper.

I confess to my thread title being more than a bit tonge-in-cheek. I'm aware that municipalities and school districts everywhere are facing critical budget shortages. Personally, we've had our own "recession" going on for several years now. On the other hand, local visitors seem to be spending more discretionary money so far this season and in greater numbers. No, I don't have stats, just lots of people carrying shopping bags and crowding the restaurants. Does anyone else get that impression? And if it's true, does it mean that a certain segment of the population, at least, is more confident that they'll retain their jobs? Since most (maybe all?) economic markers are lagging ones, - measuring the past - maybe this little sociology experiment we call sowal is a leading indicator of the beginning of some glimmer of improvement?

Lets see how that airport impacts our area. I think Southwest has a three year committment. Hopefully things will turn in 3 years or less.

Silly girl, it wasn't a recession, it was winter.

:funn:

CNN has been trying for three months to say the recession is over. Simply saying it doesn't make it true. And one weekend does not make for a great spring in sowal.
That said, I will remain optimistic (in a guarded sort of way) that we are slowly pulling out of this recession that has been going on for far longer than the fed will readily admit. And I will believe we are on our way to a full recovery when the real estate market truly begins to turn and the jobless rate drops below 8%.
Yes... there are real estate folks out there dancing the happy dance because they sold a house or two in January or February. But the fact is, one house sold a month for a Realtor is not a turnaround. It's simply four times better than it was a year ago.
So let's stay optimistic. Let's hope the crowds continue to grace our area and bring dollars (and spend them!). Let's hope homes begin to move. Let's hope the jobless (this poster included) find work sooner rather than later.

And one weekend does not make for a great spring in sowal.

So let's stay optimistic. Let's hope the crowds continue to grace our area and bring dollars (and spend them!).

I have no clue when the recession will end, but I can tell you that we're about to have more than just one great weekend in SoWal. For our rental house we have more bookings and earlier bookings, with no discounts, than we've had in years. In fact, it might be our best year ever (9 years). It's going to be a very busy spring and summer.

Thanks, dbcooper.

I confess to my thread title being more than a bit tonge-in-cheek. I'm aware that municipalities and school districts everywhere are facing critical budget shortages. Personally, we've had our own "recession" going on for several years now. On the other hand, local visitors seem to be spending more discretionary money so far this season and in greater numbers. No, I don't have stats, just lots of people carrying shopping bags and crowding the restaurants. Does anyone else get that impression? And if it's true, does it mean that a certain segment of the population, at least, is more confident that they'll retain their jobs? Since most (maybe all?) economic markers are lagging ones, - measuring the past - maybe this little sociology experiment we call sowal is a leading indicator of the beginning of some glimmer of improvement?

Yes - things are hopping, even though it always seems that way after the quiet SoWal winter, things are busier than the last couple of springs. I think it will be an excellent summer. More people will probably mean moire real estate sales as well.

Whenever someone writes something here about things going well in SoWal there are people quick to jump in and point to gloom elsewhere - valid points but SoWal is an animal unto itself. At the very least we seem to have gone through the "shaking out" phase with people and businesses leaving and others arriving.

Lets see how that airport impacts our area. I think Southwest has a three year committment. Hopefully things will turn in 3 years or less.

Good observation. I think we'll see an initial surge but no real changes until businesses arrive on planes and set up shop. Nevertheless in 20 years those 3 years will probably be compressed to "man things really took off after people found the airport".

Each and every year, after a wonderful, mild and quiet winter... the arrival of spring break is a shock. then a short break with a brief but wonderful lull in the midst of spring. then... the arrival of summer is a shock. I cannot remember a single year when we did not have good tourism. sure, we have lower turnouts some years. but every single spring break and every single summer is always a huge wave of tourism.Every single year during the weeks of Memorial Day, July 4th and Labor Day we say this: "wow! we have never seen this many people on the beach!". and somehow it is true: each year brings more. it is just the way it is in paradise on the world's most beautiful beaches - on the Emerald Coast. and SoWal offers up a most unique kind of community on the coast - and it is way past being discovered!

after Katrina, many Louisana families moved in the area. and since then we still have families moving in from all over the south. tourism here has continued with good numbers, even though many visitors may spend less on entertainment and dining out while they are here. we'll see how that goes this year.

sigh... I'm going to miss quiet winter. but its going to be a great summer.

This is the busiest I've seen spring break in a while. Apparently the majority of rental companies are reporting 25% increases in bookings over last year. WaterColor had 1200 check-ins from Thursday through Saturday and those were just the units on their program.

I wouldn't rush to call an end to the recession as this area has gotten loads of good press over the last few years and as we all know 99% of the people who vacation here return.

A lot in SoWal appraised at $835,000 by the county just sold for $375000. The lot next door which is appraised at the same amount was purchased for $1,000,000 in 2005.

Recession over?

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OZe63uoZdic&feature=player_embedded"]YouTube- Super Mario World Music - Player Down[/ame]

Thanks, dbcooper.

I confess to my thread title being more than a bit tonge-in-cheek. I'm aware that municipalities and school districts everywhere are facing critical budget shortages. Personally, we've had our own "recession" going on for several years now. On the other hand, local visitors seem to be spending more discretionary money so far this season and in greater numbers. No, I don't have stats, just lots of people carrying shopping bags and crowding the restaurants. Does anyone else get that impression? And if it's true, does it mean that a certain segment of the population, at least, is more confident that they'll retain their jobs? Since most (maybe all?) economic markers are lagging ones, - measuring the past - maybe this little sociology experiment we call sowal is a leading indicator of the beginning of some glimmer of improvement?

I like the way you think.

I like the way you think.

Thanks, Susan, but maybe our "fast" is making me light-headed.

I do think things are improving slightly in Sowal, but I also think that it is far from over.

There are some places and people in the US that are weathering this quite well, but there are many that are not - so while I don't know if what we are seeing in Sowal is people prioritizing/saving so they can have a good vacation or a true overall improvement, I know that it isn't even close to over for most of the US.

I just don't see the recovery in economic terms, not yet at least. Everything is being judged on who is not sucking as bad.

Until jobs return things will keep declining. Taxes, cities and communities will continue to suffer.

I think people have become delusional. wall street now cheers when homes sales are only down 7% year over year and 70% off there peaks. real estate agents in sowal are cheering 100 sales in a month when the avg price is still falling and down a whopping 50% in 3 years are so. whos' taking the pain on 50% loses? I think the usa is in for the shock of there existence. the economy was in fatal cancer stage and the us gov't opened there fiscal fire hose and printed $12 trillion which served as a morphine for the patient. the patient no longer feels pain yet the cancer still grows. the bottom line is the gov't has put off the evenutal pain for a while but the problem still grows. the health care passing is the first shot across the bow as it now starts the beginning of massive tax increases. these tax increases will choke the economy. throw in the the monstrous debt which can be hardly serviced and i see nothing good coming.My theory is the economy is now doing ok because during the massive foreclosures and defaulting of debt the individual had little skin in the game and no real money. many are still in there homes paying no payments so they can spend that money in the economy. I'VE PULLED A TON OF SALE CONTRACTS ON 30-A FROM 2004-2007 AND I FOUND VERY LITTLE REAL CASH WAS PUT DOWN ON THESE HOMES. MANY WERE 100% FINANCING. SO THE ONLY PERSON OR COMPANY HURT WERE THE BANKS. THE WHOLE IDEA OF RECESSIONS IS TO PURGE THE WEAK AND EXCESSES. THE GOV'T REFUSED TO ALLOW MASS FAILURES THUS WE HAVE TONS OF CO'S THAT SURVIVED THAT SHOULD HAVE GONE UNDER. THIS IS A MASSIVE WASTE OF CAPITAL AND WILL HURT IN THE LONG RUN.this is the fatal mistake a still struggling japan made 20 years ago