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Minimum Wage for SoWal???

Smiling JOe avatar
SoWal Expert
18,024 views
Minimum wage NEVER is equal to a living wage ANYWHERE in the USA. But when the employer insists on a 39 1/2 hour work week (to avoid benefits) that's essentially what it's become.

I personally think the commute for low-wage employees back and forth to SoWal from "affordable" areas accounts for at least 2 hours of unpaid work per day. So at $12.50 ph for 8 hours in SoWal would be $100 per day which (if you add on the 2-hour commute) would come out to $10 per hour. Considering the additional cost of gas, wear & tear on the car, a jacked-up car insurance bill and commuting headaches...is it any wonder some would prefer just to roll out of bed and put in their 10 hours for 4-days at the DeFuniak Tastee-Freeze for a couple bucks less and getting another local part-time job to make up the couple bucks difference on the 5th day?

Just think--these poor souls have to work 1 1/2 hours to buy a fish sandwich off the bar menu at Cafe 30A (just as an example). Someone is making the money at the businesses in the area....employers are going to have to start narrowing their profit margins (or raising their prices) to pay their workers more (and yes, that may mean paying a living wage) or they will find it difficult to staff their establishments when the customers with money come rolling in the door.

The cheap labor who used to live in the surrounding communities have been pushed out of the area to make way for upscale development--now they want them to make a long commute back down in heavy, dangerous traffic for low wages? I don't think so.

Shelly, I appreciate your look at this. Working out another step brings forth another question. If these businesses, including restaurants, raise their prices to help pay higher wages, that employee to which you refer will now have more money to pay for that now even more expensive sandwich at Cafe 30A, but he wouldn't he still have to work 1.5 hours to do so, and wouldn't everyone else have to pay more too, including people not in the service industry?:idontno:

Replies

99
John R avatar
needs to get out more
#2
my take:
that employee will not be going to cafe 30a. he/she will be buying lunch at publix and dinner at snapperheads, when they don't prepare their own. that employee will be renting a house(or employee housing unit) with two or three other employees, and working two jobs. they want to live here just like everyone else, and enjoy the area. they'll buy their staples at walmart every two to three weeks, and their perishables at publix when needed. they'll smile at you when serving you, and discuss you when you leave. have two drinks at their work after closing and head on up to snapperheads till it closes. on their day off, they'll go to b/a, red bar, or 331 to where they know some other locals will be, and amuse themselves with the tourists. they'll go to borago before they go to fish out of water, or they'll go to amore, to support another working stiff who is giving it a go as an owner/operator.

when said employee desires a more permanent life, they will buy in freeport, bruce, or further north. the financing of this house will come with help from their parents. they will commute willingly, and still have two jobs, to support their home, spouse(who also works) and possibly their child. once they move, they will frequent a local(here) restaurant possibly once a quarter, for a special occasion, since they have discovered a reasonably priced establishment in their neighborhood to support. when their new locale grows enough to need it's own support personnel, we'll probably lose half of them. if you think finding construction labor is hard now, wait until freeport gets a full head of steam.

this is not conjecture, this is happening at every hot resort across the country.

the first person who opens a clean, non smoking, affordable hangout, that serves more than bar food, open at least two meal periods, is going to make a killing


jr
Smiling JOe avatar
SoWal ExpertAuthor
#3
Good points, John R. I guess my question goes into the bigger picture of all prices will go up when businesses have to pay employees more wages. This would include the prices of groceries, gas, prepared meals, books, etc, etc.

I guess Shelly's scenerio has potential if the employees did travel back to Freeport and beyond to buy their goods. They would probably pack their lunch too to save some bucks.

If/when this does happen, most younger locals will be moving out to, because it is easier than driving to Freeport to buy all of their goods.
Kimmifunn avatar
Funnkalicious
#4
Ok. here is my honest attempt for a serious answer. If I'm totally off, smack me down and send me to the lounge.

As one of the punks who rolled in for the summer, I think I can give a little insight to this.

First...isn't this a cost of living issue? Sorry- I have little sympathy for someone who wants to complain about the price of a fish sandwich when I pay $8 for a beer or an easy $15 for lunch not including a cocktail. And at one time I made less than those lifeguards will be making. Trust me.

So when we moved down for the summers, Jfunn and I rented a place for about $850 a month. I worked at Mars and Venus in Seaside and we got roped into delivering for Wok on the Beach (blast from the past) from time to time for a little extra spending money. We boozed at the Red Bar, Buds, Capos, ect. We drove into Wal-Mart for grocery shopping like once a week. I lived off Boca Burgers and Easy Mac (come on guys...it's not THAT freakin' far). I know gas wasn't as expensive as it is today, but I bet lots of these kiddies have little gas cards in mom and dad's names.

I'm not feeling too sorry for them. I think they are being paid great for a summer job. And the majority of them are on their parent's insurance anyway. I know it was a little more expensive there compared to Bham or Auburn for me. Come on guys. It's not that bad.
John R avatar
needs to get out more
#5
Yes Joe, but prices will reach a ceiling. then, only the wealthy will eat there, or the business will fail. the operator who is creative with food cost, scheduling, and pricing will end up on top.
Uncle Timmy avatar
Beach Fanatic
#6
I'd like to see this thread provide some real assistance to either an employer or employee when determining a reasonable wage for this area.

Does anyone want to research a range of rates, based on type of employment and other factors, that can backed up by figures (cost of living index etc.)

We could provide someone with a valuable argument for asking $___/hour.
Paula avatar
Beach Fanatic
#7
The reality is that SoWal is now an upscale community and I don't think it will ever go back to what it was. So, it will continue to be expensive to live, vacation, and eat here (though there are still some great vacation opportunities at reasonable prices). People can still have a wonderfully inexpensive vacation here if they visit here during the off-season. You can rent a nice new 3 bedroom place a 5 minute walk from a gorgeous beach for well under $1000/week in the winter and not much more for a month in the winter -- just look on VRBO to see all that's available in the fall/winter. People can enjoy the many free things around here (e.g., beaches, nature, parks, free concerts/movies), cook/eat at home rather than go out to eat, are willing to double-up in their accommodations (not everyone needs a private bedroom), and find good meal bargains in the area (e.g., dining early in the winter, take-out, lunch specials, etc.). And this would still be quite the luxurious vacation.

Kimmifunn, I like your perspective. While I agree that raising the minimum wage would be the-right-thing-for-our-society-to-do, this situation can be viewed from multiple angles. And your angle is a useful (and I suspect pretty common) one, not only for SoWal but for other upscale areas, especially on the coast). We can hope that there will always be young adults who are willing to work jobs in funn/beautiful locations just to be in these locations for a while. And creative people who are really motivated to be here will figure out how to live here (e.g., sharing costs, eating mac and cheese) while working here and having funn here. It won't be easy, but a lot of good things aren't easy to achieve. That's what makes it so worth it when you get them. Those of us who use the services of people who work in this area will want to encourage them to keep working here by tipping well and being kind and encouraging.

It is indeed difficult to be in a situation in which you don't have the skills to make more than minimum wage (been there, done that). Yet many people in this situation don't think of themselves as "poor souls" and think it's creepy that other people think of them that way. That said, if we can't in the short term raise minimum wage, then we can look for other ways to help people who are living the mininum-wage life. Most people, including some people on this board and/or who have property in SoWal, aren't born into wealth or even middle class incomes and have learned valuable lessons from that experience.

So, in addition to worrying about minimum wage, we can actually take actions such as giving money to organizations that support education (e.g., college) for people who otherwise wouldn't be able to attend college. We can support community colleges in the area that open doors for many people who would otherwise continue to have minimum wage jobs. We can give our time to institutions that help people build skills and that provide support. We can help the teachers in the public schools give young students the best education possible a chance to see the opportunities that are available, and the skills to achieve their goals. We can volunteer our time in a neighborhood school so that teachers have time to teach. We can teach someone how to read. We can volunteer to coach a team of kids. We can send our kids to day cares with a sliding fee scale so that children at different income levels can get good day care and are exposed to all different kids of people. We can support our public schools by sending our kids to them. We can identify young people who are highly motivated and encourage them -- often a bit of support and advice from others is a stepping stone to a better future (even if the minimum wage isn't raised).

So, my point would be that while we're waiting for minimum wage laws to be changed, there are many other things each of us can do personally to (1) help people who are currently living on minimum wage and (2) find and encourage people who are willing to work in SoWal.
SHELLY avatar
SoWal Insider
#8
The reality is that SoWal is now an upscale community and I don't think it will ever go back to what it was.

So, my point would be that while we're waiting for minimum wage laws to be changed, there are many other things each of us can do personally to (1) help people who are currently living on minimum wage and (2) find and encourage people who are willing to work in SoWal.

I agree with you on these points. BUT what about this upcoming summer season? On another thread there is a comment about the poor service and cold food at Shades; and the bad attitude of (drug addicted?) staff. If this is a problem in the dead of winter, my guess is that this problem is going to grow 1,000-fold when the tourist season hits.

On another note, while it is true SoWal's beaches are popular, the relatively low-cost, laid-back beach atmosphere was a BIG draw for many. But with the real estate and insurance costs soaring and the low-cost labor forced out of the area, the place will never return to what it was. If folks want an upscale surrounding as far as the eye can see and beyond, they're going to have to pay upscale (and beyond) wages to make the employee's trip worthwhile. Just because tourists think the place is fabulous (as they sip cold drinks and look out to sea)--doesn't mean it is equally enjoyable for someone who's humping dishes or cleaning condos and faces a 2 hour commute each day. Visitors say they hate driving to Destin or PCB during their stay because they can't stand the traffic--imagine doing that 2x per day for 5-6 days a week? (I've worked in Hawaii for a number of years and believe me, it's not Aloha and Mai Tai's around the clock, especially if you have bills to pay.)

Don't discount the NEED for service workers in resort areas--the world would not function properly if everyone was a college graduate. As long as developers continue being cheered on as they build retail and sprawling high-rise condos (all of which require some sort of staff to maintain) finding staff will become more and more of a problem--and not the developers' problem; they simply build, sell, and move on. Honest, hard-working, motivated employees will come at a premium price--business owners who know this will pay the price, those who choose to ignore it will also pay the price, but in a different way.

What can be done now? There is a young man on this board who is desperately looking for an affordable place to live (working security at SanDestin). Why not offer up that young man an affordable place to stay--that would be good place to start.
SHELLY avatar
SoWal Insider
#9
that employee to which you refer will now have more money to pay for that now even more expensive sandwich at Cafe 30A, but he wouldn't he still have to work 1.5 hours to do so, and wouldn't everyone else have to pay more too, including people not in the service industry?:idontno:

Joe, the sandwich thing was just to make a point to put the offering price for cheap labor into perspective. If they worked at 30A they'd get the sandwich for free, if they worked at the Prada shop they'd brown-bag a bolgna sandwich from home.
John R avatar
needs to get out more
#10
Joe, the sandwich thing was just to make a point to put the offering price for cheap labor into perspective. If they worked at 30A they'd get the sandwich for free, if they worked at the Prada shop they'd brown-bag a bolgna sandwich from home.

yes, the free sandwich staff meal, 5 of 21 meals/week.


jr
SHELLY avatar
SoWal Insider
#11
I'd like to see this thread provide some real assistance to either an employer or employee when determining a reasonable wage for this area.

Does anyone want to research a range of rates, based on type of employment and other factors, that can backed up by figures (cost of living index etc.)

We could provide someone with a valuable argument for asking $___/hour.


TWT,

I appreciate your concern...I sense you really want to find solutions to this problem--and it is a BIG problem. Believe me, I wish I could offer up a quick and easy solution, but I've looked at this problem from a number of different angles and it isn't an easy fix.

As long as people continue to throw money at developers for building more and more retail & condos which gobble up lower cost-of-living areas and require low-cost staff to run them, there are going to be problems.

The easiest solution (and the one I find most distasteful) is to build barracks in far-flung areas and ship in thousands of migrant workers from third world countries. I have nothing against migrant workers, but I fear the profits that can be generated from such a system could lead to the abuse of the poor folks shipped in to work. In that sense, the panhandle would operate more like a cruise ship.

On the other hand, the best solution, I feel, would be for the county to DEMAND developers build rental apartments as part of the deal to allow them to develop their upscale communities. And yes, the employers in the area will have to fork out "living wages" and the tourists and locals living in the local areas will have to pay. There's a price to pay for living in paradise.

What's really going to happen in the short-term is that the businesses are going to have to increase wages and treat their good employees well OR they are going to have to constantly hire and train new employees (which is more expensive than raising wages a couple bucks an hour) OR they are going to end up with sub-par employees, in which case it doesn't matter if Wolfgang Puck is in the kitchen--if the customers get cold food and attitude...the business will fold before long.

If you REALLY want to find answers, TWT, ask your question of the guy who's bussing your dishes or serving your drink across the bar next time you are out for the evening.
SHELLY avatar
SoWal Insider
#12
yes, the free sandwich staff meal, 5 of 21 meals/week.


jr

Unless you're the bologna-eating Prada Bag-lady.
Paula avatar
Beach Fanatic
#13
"BUT what about this upcoming summer season? On another thread there is a comment about the poor service and cold food at Shades; and the bad attitude of (drug addicted?) staff. If this is a problem in the dead of winter, my guess is that this problem is going to grow 1,000-fold when the tourist season hits."

I saw the comment and I can't say I had any indication that any of the staff at Shades was drug addicted (as you know, I really worry about stereotypes because they harm people and businesses and usually aren't true), nor did I experience generally poor service -- I'd call it average to good service. Our food was always great -- hot, sometimes innovative, tasty, and well-priced (and I have no invested interested in Shades by the Loop other than I like that it's close to us because we like to go there to eat -- it has become one of our favorite places to eat when we're in SoWal).

I definitely agree that staffing and housing is a problem. Given these problems, places that take good care of their staff and pay them well are the ones who will find the creative people who are able to figure out how to make a job in SoWal work for them -- and those people will tell their friends about the good places to work in SoWal so those places will get staff year after year.
WaltonUndercurrent avatar
Beach Lover
#14
I agree with Shelly on this one. Most of the larger business owners in the resort related service industry will tell you that employment is the absolute number one problem they're concerned with down the road. Not real estate prices or tourism, but finding the employees to clean, landscape, patrol, serve food, cook, answer phones, do laundry, etc. I'm not sure that there are enough young people whose families have homes in the area that are willing to work for going wages to keep it all going. Even if there were, they would only help during the summer months when the area is trying to become a year 'round destination.

Having homeowners start sending their kids down to live in their homes and work on their breaks and vacations isn't a sensible solution. I don't think we can breed the problem away. It's also idealistic to think that the problem is going to be solved because a lot of people think it's great here - most of those people have homes, money to spend on food, and aren't serving burgers and living with three or more other people in a small room five days a week. There's more to being a great place to work than just how pretty the scenery is. "I know most of what you're making is going to pay your part of the rent, but just look out the window at how pretty it is."

For seasonal work, eating mac & cheese and hotdogs from the corner mart may be worth spending a summer at the beach and enjoying a day off or two a week in the sun for a lot of young people, but not nearly enough. And while starving artists are cliche, I'm not sure they'll be happy with a life of mac & cheese either.

As an example, the Seaside rep theatre has an increasing problem with housing actors during the season - even cultural venues are starting to panic.

The trickle down effect of all this is that the cost of doing business here is going to continue to rise, cutting into profit margins and increasing prices even higher - which then prevents service wages from supporting employees and the circle starts again.

I'm afraid it's too late. Current real estate prices, even in this current market, won't encourage low income development. And low income development wouldn't stay "low income" for long in the market. Rent control won't work - this isn't New York City.

I think that the Chamber should have begun looking for ways to address this issue some time ago. It's membership is the one with the greatest potential to be affected. Its membership should have demanded it.

I predict fewer new businesses, restaurants, shops, etc and the attrition of some of the existing ones. Add real estate costs and insurance costs and there's justifiable cause for concern.
Paula avatar
Beach Fanatic
#15
Definitely cause for concern, no doubt about it. And I think we approach it in many different ways, including pushing hard for affordable housing, paying people well, encouraging the people who do manage to work here by treating them well (e.g., encouraging generous tipping of waiters, waitresses, cleaning people), figuring out how to get people to vacation here during the slow months so business have income during those periods. Big changes are made not only by changing policies in a big way, but through many "small wins" -- small activities/changes that add up to make big differences. Sometimes we focus so much on one thing, that we miss (and dismiss) the other opportunities.

I think it's very important to be having this staffing discussion now because it helps us come up with many different ideas -- big and small -- to try to shape the future of the area for everyone involved -- from workers, to businesses, to property owners, to environmentalists, etc.
SHELLY avatar
SoWal Insider
#16
I think it's very important to be having this staffing discussion now because it helps us come up with many different ideas -- big and small -- to try to shape the future of the area for everyone involved -- from workers, to businesses, to property owners, to environmentalists, etc.

IMO the real estate money grab and greed experienced over the last couple of years is coming home to roost. The area is quickly heading for an economic trainwreck that is unavoidable at this point. If one thinks it's bad now, when they can't find a decent house painter or get a hot meal with a smile, just wait 2 years down the road when the dust settles on all the new construction going on around the area... :confused:
SHELLY avatar
SoWal Insider
#17
I predict few knew business, restaurants, shops, etc and the attrition of some of the existing ones. Add real estate costs and insurance costs and there's justifiable cause for concern.

SOWAL 2010: A restricted-access beach lined with upscale houses and condos, a condo-tel with spa, a 5-star restuarant and a Prada store....that's about it.
Uncle Timmy avatar
Beach Fanatic
#18
TWT,

I appreciate your concern...I sense you really want to find solutions to this problem--and it is a BIG problem. Believe me, I wish I could offer up a quick and easy solution, but I've looked at this problem from a number of different angles and it isn't an easy fix.

As long as people continue to throw money at developers for building more and more retail & condos which gobble up lower cost-of-living areas and require low-cost staff to run them, there are going to be problems.

The easiest solution (and the one I find most distasteful) is to build barracks in far-flung areas and ship in thousands of migrant workers from third world countries. I have nothing against migrant workers, but I fear the profits that can be generated from such a system could lead to the abuse of the poor folks shipped in to work. In that sense, the panhandle would operate more like a cruise ship.

On the other hand, the best solution, I feel, would be for the county to DEMAND developers build rental apartments as part of the deal to allow them to develop their upscale communities. And yes, the employers in the area will have to fork out "living wages" and the tourists and locals living in the local areas will have to pay. There's a price to pay for living in paradise.

What's really going to happen in the short-term is that the businesses are going to have to increase wages and treat their good employees well OR they are going to have to constantly hire and train new employees (which is more expensive than raising wages a couple bucks an hour) OR they are going to end up with sub-par employees, in which case it doesn't matter if Wolfgang Puck is in the kitchen--if the customers get cold food and attitude...the business will fold before long.

If you REALLY want to find answers, TWT, ask your question of the guy who's bussing your dishes or serving your drink across the bar next time you are out for the evening.

A simple challenge submitted and.......'ka-thud' the sound of it falling on the floor.

Ok Shelly, let's get away from the "We must solve all the problems facing sowal or nothing" mentality and takle this issue specifically.

It may shock you to know that I do indeed know many of the folks who are bussing the tables and serving the drinks. Just as I am also friends with several small business owners in the area who employ them.

I feel it would be insightful to both if someone would look seriously into a regional wage analysis and determine an acceptable hourly rate that can be justified with facts.

FOCUS!
beachmouse avatar
Beach Fanatic
#19
So, in addition to worrying about minimum wage, we can actually take actions such as giving money to organizations that support education (e.g., college) for people who otherwise wouldn't be able to attend college. We can support community colleges in the area that open doors for many people who would otherwise continue to have minimum wage jobs.

The community colleges down here are cheap enough to be affordable to almost everyone. If you want to go to school, you can make it happen.

The problem is when someone finishes their degree, they either end up leaving the area or going back to their old job because of the lack of middle income white collar jobs in the area. There is a huge underemployment problem in the area, which means that the white collar jobs in a pleasant environment in many cases pay utter shyte, even by Southern standards.

We're talking people with four year degrees who are sitll waiting tables because they can make more doing dinner shifts at McGuire's than they could as schoolteachers. Or the person who used to teach community college math who is now running a t-shirt shop.

It's a classic hourglass economy down here- there are some amazingly good job opportunities if you're a rocket scientist, and a lot of service sector jobs, but there's close to nothing in the middle unless you're good at sales, or end up managing a retail store.
Kurt avatar
Admin
#20
I posted this a year ago from an article I saw. Has anyone heard any more about it?

Affordable housing coming to Walton County
Regional utilities has 2100 acres on JW Hollington Road, about 6 miles East of Freeport, North of Hwy 20. In the first phase, 300 acres will be divided into lots selling for around $35,000, including water and sewer.

Lots will not be available to buy and flip, and will be offered to first -time homeowners. 400-1200 lots will be sold in the first phase. The plans will be proposed to the County in 3-6 months.
Paula avatar
Beach Fanatic
#21
I agree that people often have to leave their communities to find jobs that fit their education. The American way of traveling to find jobs is both a good thing (people get to use their education and skills) and a bad thing (you may have to move and leave your family and friends to use your education). In our town, we have many college grads serving Starbucks because they don't want to leave the area. It's still good to promote opportunities for higher education: "According to the Census Bureau, over an adult's working life, high school graduates earn an average of $1.2 million; associate's degree holders earn about $1.6 million; and bachelor's degree holders earn about $2.1 million (Day and Newburger, 2002)." I would think that raising the quality of life for people in the areas outside of SoWal would be good for SoWal.

twt512: You are right. Focus is a good idea (I have a problem with losing focus myself, otherwise I wouldn't spend so much time on this message board...). How does one figure out the appropriate "minimum living wage" for service workers in an area like SoWal? Economists and people who study economics probably know how to systematically figure this out. Shelly, I think you may have mentioned on another thread that you have an area that you are studying -- is it economics? If so, can you identify a specific "minimum living wage" using some sort of data that's considered appropriate/rigorous by economists? There may be other economists on this board as well. Identifying an "acceptable minimum wage" based on data would be considered a "small win". Business owners would have a number for an appropriate minimum wage number to use if they wanted to.
Rita avatar
margarita brocolia
#22
......The problem is when someone finishes their degree, they either end up leaving the area or going back to their old job because of the lack of middle income white collar jobs in the area. ..........

This, as I'm sure you are aware, fits much of "small-town" USA. Where I grew up, a small midwest farming community, we referred to it as "brain drain" (many of the college educated went to where the jobs were upon finishing school.)
Uncle Timmy avatar
Beach Fanatic
#23
twt512: You are right. Focus is a good idea (I have a problem with losing focus myself, otherwise I wouldn't spend so much time on this message board...). How does one figure out the appropriate "minimum living wage" for service workers in an area like SoWal? Economists and people who study economics probably know how to systematically figure this out. Shelly, I think you may have mentioned on another thread that you have an area that you are studying -- is it economics? If so, can you identify a specific "minimum living wage" using some sort of data that's considered appropriate/rigorous by economists? There may be other economists on this board as well. Identifying an "acceptable minimum wage" based on data would be considered a "small win". Business owners would have a number for an appropriate minimum wage to use if they wanted to.

I think you made my point better than I did. (Thanks)
Paula avatar
Beach Fanatic
#24
Thanks. Data is a good thing.

Someone please stop me from checking this thread. It's so interesting, but I'm supposed to be grading papers (unfortunately for this thread, they're not economics papers....)
SHELLY avatar
SoWal Insider
#25
It may shock you to know that I do indeed know many of the folks who are bussing the tables and serving the drinks. Just as I am also friends with several small business owners in the area who employ them.
FOCUS!

OK...great. Now we've established a starting point. Since you know these folks personally what are they saying?

Are the table bussers and barkeeps happy with the wages they're making?

Are the business owners happy with quality and quantity of folks they're getting for the wages they're paying?

If they are, then:

(1) there really is no problem
OR
(2) there is no problem in your area that needs addressing

If they're NOT happy...what do THEY want?

Seems like you're the guy on the ground...let us know what "real world" research you've collected and we can start from there. I'm ready to focus!
SHELLY avatar
SoWal Insider
#26
The problem is when someone finishes their degree, they either end up leaving the area or going back to their old job because of the lack of middle income white collar jobs in the area. There is a huge underemployment problem in the area, which means that the white collar jobs in a pleasant environment in many cases pay utter shyte, even by Southern standards.

Mouse,
I hear ya talkin', that will always be a problem--even more so now that we can outsource anything from accounting to engineering via the internet to cheap labor in far-off lands.

The problem with the economy on the panhandle is that it is trying to become a upscale resort community that has essentially drained the fuel (services workers) need to make the economic engine run. We've put long-range community and economic planning on the back burner in favor of near-term huge profits for a selected few.

There will be some relief down the road as the real estate frenzy wears down and becomes a local source of additional service labor...but will the $12.50 be enough to support their lifestyle? And will there be enough in the area to take on the number of jobs coming on line? Time will tell.

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