January Real Trend Report in Walton Sun

One doesn't have to surf to understand surfing. ;-)

...........A buyer's market is when prices reach levels where it is attractive for buyer's to buy. I am seeing some properties in this category right now, but the truth is that the overpriced properties outweigh the value buys right now. That doesn't mean that you cannot shop for a value right now, but it does show me that inventory of listings is not an accurate indicator of the market. When there are two identical lots side by side with a price fluctation greater than 40%, at least one of those two lots isn't really for sale. ;-) ............

I think Feb 2007 will be the same as Feb 2007. Exactly, dead even!😀

I wouldn't argue that the daytraders didn't play a significant role. And I'm not smart enough to go research what % of the market their trades represented. I do know how many of my Physician clients were getting calls from broker reps trying to get them to get on board however. It was a daily event. You can't argue that realtors and/or brokers cannot or do not influence bad trends. I'm not buying.

It isn't timing the market, it is time in the market.


One other thing I disagree with in your statement is that you say it was a buyers market this time last year. I disagree. Prices were still much higher than any buyer was willing to pay.

I think those that bought at the peak of this cycle--say $850 or $950 per square foot for a home in areas where they are now going for $600 or less--will need to be in the market a long, long time (if ever) before they make any money and even then, the rate of return will be nominal.


Then why were more homes and lots sold in January 2006 than in January 2007?;-)

Actually, there wasn't much difference in the quantity of homes sold in Jan '06 vs Jan '07.

Looking at the sold property data, the Seller's Market ended in Dec '05, so the sales in Jan '06 are similar to Jan '07, because only recently, have prices begun to look interesting to sellers, which should soon show in sales. We are only 19 days into this short month and currently, there are 38 single family homes in the SoWal area from Bay Co. up to Sandestin, in the pending and contingent status. The last three months, there were 21 closed sales each month in this category and area. Not all of these will necessarily turn into closed sales for the month of Feb '07, but it does look like Feb or Mar will be much stronger than the past 13 months, as for the quanity of sales. Only 7 single family homes are listed as having closed during this month, but if these others go to close, that number should show an uptick in either Feb or Mar '07, to reflect what I and a few other Realtors have been talking about with the increase in activity. We are not just trying to pump up and misrepresent the current market conditions, no matter what some people are inclined to believe.

Joe, I agree with what you're saying here. A lot of this truth stems from the old adage about a property being worth what someone will pay .... that's always been a deceptively simple statement, but not simplistic as some would believe.

You and I both get e-flyers every day about supposed values that're priced "way below market" or "$200,000 below market" .... well, apparently they're not below market, or they'd already be sold.

Similarly, someone here posted about the rich folks paying too much for a few certain high-end homes lately ... those homes were apparently worth it to them, and yet the devil of it is that them paying $1000 per sq ft does not then automatically make the other homes in the neighborhood worth similar amounts to other prospective buyers.

Analyzing a market is imprecise, and market trends can only be imperfectly described with generalities and a side order of disclaimers .... but I do enjoy it.

And your point?

Josh,

You can't make your point without the insult? Where did I call you out personally? And while your at it, show me where I proclaimed myself as the all-wise one? That's a cheap shot.

Since I am so ignorant, why don't you impart the wisdom? I've driven by your personal home. It's nice and from the web shots, it is nicely furnished. Why hasn't it sold? Let me guess, it is due to real estate being down all over the country. I should have known. Could price have anything to do with it? Or maybe the abundant supply of houses for sale within 10 miles of your street? How does it feel to be stuck in the middle of a stagnant market?

I don't know when the bottom will come. And I'll make the best choice that I can personally and hope for the best. I just refuse to believe things aren't going to change in the next few months. There are too many signs (both literally and figuratively) that shouldn't be ignored.

I don't expect everybody to agree with me, nor did I ask for such in my posts. (I've got to learn how to post under the correct heading.)

I just say, "Thank God we're not California!" $500,000 won't get you a treehouse 2 hours from the beach!

while that's true, let's be fair. it's not as though we have the job opportunities, economic potential, cultural offerings, health care or other infrastructure of california coastal towns.

while this area has it's charm, people buying beach houses in california are not just buying a home, but buying into a lifestyle. big difference.

We thought about buying in California. We looked from the wine country to San Diego. It's really beautiful there. Santa Barbara-Wow! Ojai-It's like Shangri-La. San Francisco-Super! La Jolla-Something Else! Over the years we've spent lots of time there.

We really wanted to be near the beach, so we looked for the prettiest one. One that wasn't too cold to swim in without a wet suit. And we wanted a lifestyle with which we were comfortable, where we could raise a daughter and instill in her some good southern values. A place where the people seemed down to earth.

We looked and looked. We certainly didn't feel as though we could find what we were looking for in California. We can always go there to visit, I guess. Instead, we chose a place to live that is unlike any other. For the longest time it was hard for me to put my finger on why we liked it here so much more. Obviously, we have the beaches.

It finally hit me one day a couple of years ago: Everywhere you go here you see happy people. The people that live here are happy. The people that come here to visit are happy. Every time I meet an out-of-towner and they find out we live here, they're incredibly jealous. That validates the reason I have a smile on my face. Happy, happy, happy.

Happy isn't a lifestyle I guess. It's the result of it.