UF Survey on Real Estate

This is great news!!! Just in time!!! Bottom is in!

yeah, pass the word to everyone!

It's also good news that might aid UF's quest for students to enroll in its Master of Science in Real Estate (MSRE) Program too! (Application deadline is April 15th.)


"For the survey, UF?s Survey Research Center asked a series of questions of 318 industry executives, real estate lawyers, market analysts, title insurers, financial advisers, market research economists, real estate scholars and other experts in the field. This represents an increase over the 183 respondents in the last survey."

Seems they failed to survey buyers. :idontno:

It doesn't seem that enrollment in the Masters of Real Estate program would be going too well, unless they can convince enrollees that it's "all up" from here.

American barbers surveyed declare that Americans need an extra haircut per year.

http://www.cba.ufl.edu/fire/realestate/cres/findings.asp

"It doesn't look like prices are going to fall anymore."
Wayne Archer, director of UF Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies.
Interesting data...

Boy you are on the ball goodwitch. There was a good article about this in the Business section of today's St. Pete Times.

Dr. Denslow, who is quoted in the story, is a highly regarded UF economics professor, by the way. The most interesting quote to me:

"We think prices will rise about 2 percent a year over the rate of inflation after this current period of adjustment," Denslow said. "I have to confess I don't know how long the adjustment will last."

So it pretty much says what many of us have been saying all along: Short-term things are tough, but long-term everything will be just fine.

http://www.sptimes.com/2007/03/10/Business/Boomers_may_yet_prop_.shtml

"The Survey of Emerging Market Conditions targets the experienced leadership and professionals of Florida's real estate development and investment community to gain insights and market intelligence on matters of fundamental importance to real estate practitioners and policy-makers across Florida. "

hmmmm...... let's survey the developers and others with their livelihood on the line in real estate - let's see if they're optimistic about their livelihood; let's see if they predict that prices will rise on assets they currently hold, and hope to sell at the highest possible price to someone else in the future, even it that means taking a loss, for some.

It doesn't seem that enrollment in the Masters of Real Estate program would be going too well, unless they can convince enrollees that it's "all up" from here.

American barbers surveyed declare that Americans need an extra haircut per year.

Whether the market is at the top, bottom, or in the middle what does that have to do with enrolling in an educational program?

Actually, let me correct myself. The Times article was in regards to a report released by UF's Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

Here is a link to it. It is much more detailed and rooted in economics than the page goodwich linked to. I have not read it yet.

http://www.bebr.ufl.edu/FloridaFocus/FloridaFocus3_2_2007.pdf

Thanks for the link to the other U. Florida paper. I like how the 8 page paper, which you deem as really pithy, sums up the bearish real estate argument in one paragraph... on page 19 the "real estate can go down" view is easily dismissed, although it does mention that there is this study by a school called Harvard University, which their economists say real estate could be headed for larger than usual downturn, due to the larger than usual and historic run up in prices due to credit availability, and low rates.

The U. of Florida economists dismiss Harvards economists views as non concencus.

Harvard University, to my knowledge is not yet handing out Minors in Real Estate for undergraduates, or Masters in Real Estate (MRE) to Graduate Students as is the University of Florida.

Thanks for the link to the other U. Florida paper. I like how the 8 page paper, which you deem as really pithy, sums up the bearish real estate argument in one paragraph...

You are putting words in my mouth. I said I hadn't read it yet. I still haven't. (I am caring for my two youngest at the moment and will wait until this evening to read it.) I said it is more detailed and rooted in economics than the other link. A quick glance will tell you that it is.

If you are going to be the devil's advocate, great. That is actually welcome as long as you are accurate. But don't be a troll and put words in others' mouths, make assumptions or jump to conclusions.

We all know that Harvard University is almost without peer.

However, the University of Florida is closer to the Florida real estate market than is Harvard University.

I would believe the University of Florida before I would believe Harvard University on this one particular issue.

Kelly Bergstrom, who the UF RE school is named after, is primarily in commercial RE. I think getting into the graduate program would be a home run for anybody who is interested in RE.

Those who think stories that say Florida RE has bottomed and is back on its way up are "good news," may find they actually aren't, since there are still numerous conflicting stories about the uneasy state of real estate markets (booming vs bursting, bottom vs still sliding, fat inventories, credit tightening, etc.) state- and nation-wide. "Good news" stories only serve to make sellers stick to their unrealistically high 2005 prices, while the contrarian stories keep buyers sitting on their bag o' cash on the sidelines. That leaves the folks that service the industry (realtors, mortgage, title, appraisers, etc.) waiting, waiting, and waiting for someone to blink. Result: Not much moves.

"Good News" stories in a declining market make realtors lives tougher when it comes to convincing their clients to come down off the roof with their asking prices.


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Those who think stories that say Florida RE has bottomed and is back on its way up are "good news," may find they actually aren't, since there are still numerous conflicting stories about the uneasy state of real estate markets (booming vs bursting, bottom vs still sliding, fat inventories, credit tightening, etc.) state- and nation-wide. "Good news" stories only serve to make sellers stick to their unrealistically high 2005 prices, while the contrarian stories keep buyers sitting on their bag o' cash on the sidelines. That leaves the folks that service the industry (realtors, mortgage, title, appraisers, etc.) waiting, waiting, and waiting for someone to blink. Result: Not much moves.

"Good News" stories in a declining market make realtors lives tougher when it comes to convincing their clients to come down off the roof with their asking prices.


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You are dead on here Shelly! We are having a surge locally because folks "were" getting real on the prices but lately every listing appointment the sellers are thinking they can get crazy prices. Some are catching on but alot of them do not get it....

However, the University of Florida is closer to the Florida real estate market than is Harvard University.

that only makes UF more suspect! :floor:

You are dead on here Shelly! We are having a surge locally because folks "were" getting real on the prices but lately every listing appointment the sellers are thinking they can get crazy prices. Some are catching on but alot of them do not get it....

also, few developers here understand the buyers. i sense you get alot of people who make assumptions about what people with deep pockets want, since they have no real life personal or professional experience with that demographics. particularly in a luxury/second home market. the lack of business sense in developers here is shocking. i'm not sure if it's ignorance or arrogance or a combination.

but this sense of entitlement will not sell homes. when they've used every square inch of land to turn sowal into a cluster of "suburbs on the sea" it will be too late when they realize that they aren't worth anything without value of amenities, local color or infrastructure.

You are dead on here Shelly! We are having a surge locally because folks "were" getting real on the prices but lately every listing appointment the sellers are thinking they can get crazy prices. Some are catching on but alot of them do not get it....

And the ones who "don't get it" also "don't get" the concept of how carry costs eat away profits as their properties linger on the market. :idontno:

Another month of taxes; another month of insurance; another month of interest payments; another month of maintenance and upkeep; another month of utilities; another month of HOA fees........death by a thousand payments.


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but this sense of entitlement will not sell homes. when they've used every square inch of land to turn sowal into a cluster of "suburbs on the sea" it will be too late when they realize that they aren't worth anything without value of amenities, local color or infrastructure.

Sowal will never have "suburbs" - suburbs are the districts located immediately outside a city (or town). That said, all of the state owned forest will minimize the sprawl one sees in a suburbarn area. Even though Destin is choke full and almost entirely built out, there is only so much land so it, too, is minimized. Go to Atlanta and you can drive an a few hours through the "sprawl".

Amenities ... I've been here now almost 7 years and we are slowly getting the ammenities. And infrastructure is being worked on as well...maybe not up to everyone's standards, but it is.

I think the SoWal area will be fine. Jill has very good points. Most of my clients are quite content with the infrastructure. They actually like less... The problem we run into is the price. Which seems to be working out. Or as Shelly says, "it will" work its way out. The buyers will win this battle. The mortgage clock is ticking and those that have to get out will see that the only way is to lower the price. The buyer will come. The problem is the seller tends to think we need to change the way we are marketing or advertising. The bottom line is price!