But in any event is it worth putting some money into JOE now (25%) and waiting ?in view of blackstone buying Hilton Hotels ( i wonder if paris is part of the deal) is it worth buying JOE as a speculation?? I have been waiting for JOE to hit 40. Granted that HLT and JOE are separate biz models but there has been alot of activity in the reit sector regard buyouts this year and I am wondering if the next activity will be in companies like JOE or even some homebuilders who are selling at or below book value. there is an excellent research report by smith barney that was published thursday that is really good, discussing homebuilders and the recovery that THEY think will start next year. after the reset of adjustables in the next six months and the subsequent flush, maybe the recovery will start next year But in any event is it worth putting some money into JOE now (25%) and waiting ?
But in any event is it worth putting some money into JOE now (25%) and waiting ?Replies
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Beach Fanatic
I have limit order in to buy JOE @ 26.
Beach FanaticAuthor
take a "nothing done" on your order.
Beach Fanatic
"nothing done"Huh?
Beach FanaticAuthor
that means you will never buy the stock at that price ever. I have a hard time seeing it at under 40 i used to be a trader on wall st. and "nothing done" meant you did not execute your order.
i used to be a trader on wall st. and "nothing done" meant you did not execute your order.Beach Fanatic
that means you will never buy the stock at that price ever.[/QUOTE]
Maybe. A bottom fish at '03 prices is OK with me. There is some support at around 42. But I'll wait - no rush on this.
SoWal Insider
in view of blackstone buying Hilton Hotels ( i wonder if paris is part of the deal) is it worth buying JOE as a speculation?? I have been waiting for JOE to hit 40. Granted that HLT and JOE are separate biz models but there has been alot of activity in the reit sector regard buyouts this year and I am wondering if the next activity will be in companies like JOE or even some homebuilders who are selling at or below book value. there is an excellent research report by smith barney that was published thursday that is really good, discussing homebuilders and the recovery that THEY think will start next year. after the reset of adjustables in the next six months and the subsequent flush, maybe the recovery will start next year
What exactly would Blackstone do with JOE once they got their hands on it? They usually jump in to make money fast and get out of Dodge. The way they can accomplish that is to flush all of Placemaker JOEs 'amenities promises' down the drain; have a BIG fire sale on the leftover lots; carve up the swamp land and sell it off at dirt cheap prices; and sell off any hotels, condos and homes that are on the books.
JOE's P/E is @ 51 vs GOOG @ 46...what's up with that? In June JOE sold off 15 office buildings (to bolster its quarterly earnings no doubt.) Why offer to buy JOE shares at a premium when Blackstone can just wait patiently and scrape JOE off their shoe later on down the line?
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Beach FanaticAuthor
Shelly
I am not saying blackstone would buy JOE but another private equity firm or a strategic buyer. you do not buy JOE or any real estate play based on earnings but on asset value. JOE's mkt cap is $3.5 billion. with a million acres you are paying $3500 an acre for PRIMO acreage. not alot of debt and a substantial amount of completed physical plant. seems cheap to me going forward. smith barney's report is compelling on their analysis of homebuilders looking out 3 years.
I am not saying blackstone would buy JOE but another private equity firm or a strategic buyer. you do not buy JOE or any real estate play based on earnings but on asset value. JOE's mkt cap is $3.5 billion. with a million acres you are paying $3500 an acre for PRIMO acreage. not alot of debt and a substantial amount of completed physical plant. seems cheap to me going forward. smith barney's report is compelling on their analysis of homebuilders looking out 3 years.
SoWal Insider
Shelly
seems cheap to me going forward. smith barney's report is compelling on their analysis of homebuilders looking out 3 years.
Well then, by all means...buy 25% starting tomorrow
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Beach Lover
Shelly
I am not saying blackstone would buy JOE but another private equity firm or a strategic buyer. you do not buy JOE or any real estate play based on earnings but on asset value. JOE's mkt cap is $3.5 billion. with a million acres you are paying $3500 an acre for PRIMO acreage. not alot of debt and a substantial amount of completed physical plant. seems cheap to me going forward. smith barney's report is compelling on their analysis of homebuilders looking out 3 years.
goofer the private equity binge on real estate is a leverage play. They find assets that are generating cash flow and then purchase them with debt to increase return on equity. private equity has no interest at all in buying assets that will take generations to produce earnings. These guys are paid on annual profits (20-40%), so the heat is on to produce strong positive returns every year. In summary, it is laughable to think private equity would buy JOE...now another homebuilder, etc. is a different story and i actually would not be surprised if that happens.
Beach Fanatic
I heard Resort Quest was just sold again...anyone know and if so, who bought it this time? (Sorry to hijack but your post made me think of this)
Darlene is my middle name, not my nickname
I heard Resort Quest was just sold again...anyone know and if so, who bought it this time? (Sorry to hijack but your post made me think of this)
Just Read THIS.
Beach FanaticAuthor
ok..thanks for the input. i will wait until JOE dribbles down to 40 to start buying. I guess there is no reason to start now at 47.
SoWal Insider
ok..thanks for the input. i will wait until JOE dribbles down to 40 to start buying. I guess there is no reason to start now at 47.
Goofer,
Get ready to pull the trigger on JOE @ 40...today's the day.
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Beach Lover
nasty nasty day for the mkt...its been a while...still would be leary of homebuilders and financials with mortgage exposure. the mortgage exposure companies may be a bit oversold as i think jobs and income will still keep losses fairly low even though loan to values are creeping up...but homebuilders....they will continue to get hurt
Beach FanaticAuthor
shelly
i have my $40 bid in for 500 shares to get started. they report on the 31st.
i will scale down my position to 35 over time and then wait .
i really dodged a major bullet when i pulled my bids in the homebuilders. WWHEW !! i want to own JOE since i am down here and talk to some of the middle mgt guys and i see what the potential is over the long term.
i am adding to my position in home depot. there is a dutch tender on the table from 39-44 but i am not sure in this environment hd can do the financing. if they can do the deal it will significantly reduce the float.
i have my $40 bid in for 500 shares to get started. they report on the 31st.
i will scale down my position to 35 over time and then wait .
i really dodged a major bullet when i pulled my bids in the homebuilders. WWHEW !! i want to own JOE since i am down here and talk to some of the middle mgt guys and i see what the potential is over the long term.
i am adding to my position in home depot. there is a dutch tender on the table from 39-44 but i am not sure in this environment hd can do the financing. if they can do the deal it will significantly reduce the float.
Beach FanaticAuthor
i am adding to C and BAC. note that bank of america raised their dividend by 14% to an annual $2.56 which yields 5.3%. not a bad return while you wait for the fear to leave the mkt. 85% is tax exempt under present law. the major money center banks are not exposed to any serious degree to sub prime. imho i think you are getting a GREAT opty to buy some of the great financial companies while they are on the clearance table.
SoWal Expert
I like C, but BAC really pissed me off when I was a customer, many years ago when they started charging me to walk in the door to deposit money. Over the years, I heard many other individuals whom they have greatly upset via terrible practices. I know they focus on the businesses as their customers, but if they abuse the everyday individual, they will not think twice about abusing their larger accounts. For those reasons, I would never help them continue their mission, whatever that happens to be.
Beach FanaticAuthor
jeez...i am really surprised. i have my checking acct at bac. no fees, very helpful and friendly people ( in sedona, anyway ), and the best internet banking i have ever experienced. they are making tons of money because they are global and well diversified. as a shareholder i am pleased and as a customer i am very pleased. they are the only bank besides wachovia that have branches in the places i hang out. btw, i just opened an acct at wachovia. they own World Savings which they got through by buying golden west financial. world savings has the best cd reates in the country.
worldsavings.com.
worldsavings.com.
SoWal Expert
Glad to hear that you are having a better experience than me and people I know who had accounts at BAC. Maybe they have changed their ways somewhat, but I still hear accounts of people who are treated without a care in the world about keeping them as customers at BAC.
Fundamentally, BAC looks good on paper, but when I invest, it isn't 100% about the money. I also have to feel good about the company and their practice, and I just don't get that feeling with BAC. To each his own, though. That IS what makes the world go around, and keeps it interesting.
Fundamentally, BAC looks good on paper, but when I invest, it isn't 100% about the money. I also have to feel good about the company and their practice, and I just don't get that feeling with BAC. To each his own, though. That IS what makes the world go around, and keeps it interesting.
Beach FanaticAuthor
amen, brother.
life is a marathon, not a sprint.
life is a marathon, not a sprint.
Beach Lover
I would not buy any stock hoping for a private equity take over right now. The private equity firms are being squeezed by the banks.
Beach Fanatic
In this credit environment, I don't think any buyouts of JOE are feasible. I like the long-term asset play, but I'm going to wait until 26-31.
Beach Lover
The state of Florida, & expecially northwest coastal Florida (Joe Country) has
so many problems now that buying Joe would probably not be a prudent move maybe unless it hits 20 or so. Their developments have stalled, the current
Florida real estate environment is at historic low levels, the demand for Joes inventory (building lots) is dismal given the historic high levels of foreclosed homes and a five year supply of new homes on the market at present. The current problems are not getting solved and Florida and Joe will continue to suffer.
so many problems now that buying Joe would probably not be a prudent move maybe unless it hits 20 or so. Their developments have stalled, the current
Florida real estate environment is at historic low levels, the demand for Joes inventory (building lots) is dismal given the historic high levels of foreclosed homes and a five year supply of new homes on the market at present. The current problems are not getting solved and Florida and Joe will continue to suffer.
SoWal Insider
JOE's conference call is on Tuesday, Jul 31...will be interesting to see how they spin the current and future markets and gloss over how their stock is trading at the 2004 price level.
Given the current state of affairs with conventional stick-home-builders, I imagine they'll really talk up their most current strategic alliance with the modular homebuilder they're using for their WaterSound properties.
I won't be too surprised if we get some kind of "Airport Update" on Jul 30 so Pete can put a happy face on JOE's future.....we'll see.
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Given the current state of affairs with conventional stick-home-builders, I imagine they'll really talk up their most current strategic alliance with the modular homebuilder they're using for their WaterSound properties.
I won't be too surprised if we get some kind of "Airport Update" on Jul 30 so Pete can put a happy face on JOE's future.....we'll see.
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Beach Lover
Shelly, there's talk about Joe using modular homes at other Joe communities. There are physical and architectural limitations on modular construction. Joe has never been one to do something like this.This demonstrates how desperate they are and rightfully so. I think they are trying to hit a lower price point with a smaller home with generic designs. The airport is their only holy grail & could be the shot that would gradually turn things around. And then if things get really ugly, maybe rates will drop way down again, it is a bad situation but they have always pulled things out.......what do you think?
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