realtors/speculators - need a hot market?

Re: realtors - need a hot market?

?We?ve just had two in a row looking to buy and they have no intention of ever returning to New Orleans,? McKey said.

Local newscasters in the DFW area report that nearly all evacuees they have spoken with plan to relocate.

I'm headed out now to buy backpacks and school supplies for some of the families enrolling in my daughter's school here in Arlington. Have a lead on 4 jobs that may help some of them too.

Dallas' Reunion Arena can't hold all that are coming and Astrodome filled earlier.

Re: realtors - need a hot market?

My wife just brought our daughter home from Butler Elementary. She was told there are 60 new children there as of today, relocated from the effects of Katrina.

Re: realtors - need a hot market?

My wife just brought our daughter home from Butler Elementary. She was told there are 60 new children there as of today, relocated from the effects of Katrina.

I'll bet not many will return once the sand gets between their toes. ;-)

Re: realtors - need a hot market?

I'll bet not many will return once the sand gets between their toes. ;-)

I agree. Not only for the people who escape here, but elsewhere, too, even places without sand. People hate change. For them to be out of NOLA for at least 1 year without housing, they are sure to get jobs in their temporary town. They may even fall in love with towns which are so generous, and filled with loving, compassionate people. Remember, many will be coming out of NewOrleans, the murder capital of the USA. After setting up jobs, careers and housing, and establishing new friends, I don't think most people are likely to go back to a city that is not there. People, as a whole, dislike change. Most are likely tol stay in the place to where they ran for safety and comfort.

Re: realtors - need a hot market?

I agree. Not only for the people who escape here, but elsewhere, too, even places without sand. People hate change. For them to be out of NOLA for at least 1 year without housing, they are sure to get jobs in their temporary town. They may even fall in love with towns which are so generous, and filled with loving, compassionate people. Remember, many will be coming out of NewOrleans, the murder capital of the USA. After setting up jobs, careers and housing, and establishing new friends, I don't think most people are likely to go back to a city that is not there. People, as a whole, dislike change. Most are likely tol stay in the place to where they ran for safety and comfort.

Amen Kurt and SJ.

It struck me a while back, it should have been obvious, one reason people like it here, and the reason some of those displaced people may decide to stay here permanently. It's the same reason I used to like it in Naples, before it became a Palm Beachy kind of place.

It's because everyone is just so darn happy to be here and it creates such a great karma. The locals of course are really happy to be able to be here full time. The part timers love their opportunities to come down from wherever they have to live the rest of the time. And some of the happiest people are those at Publix on check in day when they're stocking up for their stay.

Really, I know most of those who are here involuntarily must miss and be proud of their hometowns. But I bet after they're here awhile some of them will not be going back.

Amen Kurt, SJ and Mack...
I've had a number of conversations with realtors and property managers over the last couple of days. While I wish Katrina had never happened, it nevertheless will bring change and some of it may be positive.

A lot of people are moving into the area...some will stay. Many of these people already had second homes here which--as of Monday--just got converted to primary residences. And all of them are people who owned their own businesses or were otherwise successful at what they did.

Think about what happens when entrepreneurial, business-savvy types have to rebuild their lives. These are not people who roll over, play dead and go on the dole. Expect to see an influx of new businesses start up over the next year or so. Which means more hiring. Which means secondary markets. Which means more development. Which means--ahh, you get the picture...

Could even shift the political demographics of Walton county.

Won't happen overnight, of course. Short-term effects will likely involve shortages of goods and services with the accompanying price-hikes that such shortages always cause. Nor is today's county infrastructure capable of handling a population spike (hell, we can't even deal with the current population). And there's no guarantee the next Cat 5 might not decide to make landfall here.

But once we adjust, all of this just might mean that alleged "bubble" may not be bursting after all. At least not anytime soon.

Of course, I could be wrong.

There are much more than 60. I think we registered 60 at Butler today.

There are much more than 60. I think we registered 60 at Butler today.

Didn't you say that you registered some 40-60 kids yesterday, too?

As of 2:30 today, more than 100 new students had been registered at Butler. The staff there did an amazing job handling all the emotional people. Everyone that came in was very impressed with our school and the treatment they received.

University of Michigan and other colleges/university throughout the country are welcoming students who are enrolled in colleges/universities damaged by Katrina.

University of Michigan and other colleges/university throughout the country are welcoming students who are enrolled in colleges/universities damaged by Katrina.

Isn't this AWESOME? I just read that Mizzou has welcomed some Tulane students and may even waive some fees! It's happening all over this great land!

Didn't you say that you registered some 40-60 kids yesterday, too?

Yep. And we still expect to get the after Labor Day rush too that is not associated with Hurricane Katrina.

Markets near hurricane-affected areas see boom


GULF COAST -- Sept. 8, 2005 -- Just a week after Hurricane Katrina struck the U.S. Gulf Coast, rental property is all but gone and for-sale listings are disappearing rapidly in cities close to the affected areas in Alabama, Louisiana and Mississippi.

People who were displaced by the hurricane have quickly moved to nearby locales where they can rebuild their lives, but those who didn't move fast enough face dwindling inventory.

"LaFayette?s housing supply is going fast," says Mary Jane Bauer, association executive for the LaFayette (La.) Board of Realtors which is about 130 miles from New Orleans. "The rental market disappeared in a couple of days. Commercial space is at a premium."

The multiple listing service (MLS) there did about six weeks worth of business in one week, according to Steven Hebert, chief operating officer of Coldwell Banker Pelican in Lafayette. "The MLS averages about 313 sold units a month. In a week, we sold 262 units. And by the end of the first week, almost all commercial inventory was off the market as companies look for warehouse and industrial space."

Baton Rouge, La., 80 miles from New Orleans, is seeing multiple bidding, which it hadn?t before the hurricane, says Herb Gomez, association executive with the Baton Rouge Association of Realtors. "Before we had a steady market with 8 percent to 10 percent increase in sales a year. We expected to be flat this year. That?s not going to happen." Gomez says that last week there were 2,000 vacant apartment units, according to a local apartment association. This week there are none.

Although he doesn?t have statistics, he suspects commercial space is moving swiftly, too. "By the time practitioners faxed listing sheets on 30 commercial properties in response to an inquiry, the properties were already leased," he says. "Law firms and banks are leasing space for their displaced workers. And adjusters and insurance people need long-term temporary space."

Linda Moore, association executive for the Shreveport (La.) Association of Realtors, says the rental and for-sale momentum is now reaching that market, which is about 330 miles north of New Orleans. And it?s not stopping there.

The Wall Street Journal on Friday reported that companies in and around New Orleans are reaching out as far as Houston and Dallas for office space. In Meridian, Miss., about 170 miles from Biloxi, where electricity and phones were still coming back on line this week, the Meridian boards association executive Laura Miller says rentals are tight and people are looking for manufactured housing. For now, this activity is good news for the region.

What worries practitioners and association executives is what happens if and when the inventory dries up? "What does that do to your ability to sell?" asks Bauer, whose son rehabs old homes in New Orleans. He and his wife are now living with her. "Of course, builders will be building quickly."

Hebert says the pace may not die down soon since the flurry of buying has spawned locals already in market to put their homes up for sale, too. "We have a healthy market here anyway; there?s a good appetite among local buyers." Has the buying frenzy led to gouging? Practitioners and AEs say they?re only aware of a few anecdotal cases. "I heard that one practitioner was asked to raise the price on a listing, but the practitioner refused," Hebert says.

He adds that most homes are selling right at list price although some new listings are priced too high. Some markets are welcoming their displaced brethren from New Orleans and elsewhere. "We?re waiving the new-member fee and MLS fees for 90 days for Realtors who want to enter this market and affiliate with a broker who?s here," Bauer says. She says about a dozen practitioners have expressed interest.

Gomez says his board of directors would be meeting to decide about similar waivers. Hebert believes people eventually will go back to their homes in devastated areas. "I?d want to get back to my hometown," he says. "That would be my first preference. But the decision will depend on what employers do. If your employer says, ?You?re employed with me as long as you want to be, but your job is now in Baton Rouge or Houston,? the decision may be made for you."

Source: REALTOR? Magazine Online, Christina Hoffmann Spira, Sept. 7, 2005

? 2005 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

The repercussions of this storm on the housing market,as well as comercial real estate,is very far reaching...even as far as the Tamba Bay area here in Florida

The repercussions of this storm on the housing market,as well as comercial real estate,is very far reaching...even as far as the Tamba Bay area here in Florida

Tell us more. Are you guys in a selling craze with people moving in, or has Katrina made people think twice about buying in Tampa Bay, where some say it is waiting for a major disaster?

Colleges all over are doing their best to help out NO students--I'm part of a 3 member task force at Union College (upstate NY)--we've admitted between 5-7 Tulane students (some were first-years, others upperclass students). I'm particularly proud that we were reaching out to the historically black schools (Tulane will be fine, but the others are in the midst of the worst flooding.) Our Board of Trustees, in fact, decided almost immediately, to donate personal funds for scholarships.
The tricky thing is to help out these colleges by NOT taking their students permanently and by NOT taking their fall tuition monies.

Tell us more. Are you guys in a selling craze with people moving in, or has Katrina made people think twice about buying in Tampa Bay, where some say it is waiting for a major disaster?

Hmmm. Why is Tampa Bay waiting for a major disaster? Are they more likely to get hit by a devastating storm than we are? Is there something about Tampa (e.g., location, people, etc.) that makes it more at risk for devastation? (I'm asking because I have in-laws in Sarasota not too far from Tampa, so I'm wondering...)

Tell us more. Are you guys in a selling craze with people moving in, or has Katrina made people think twice about buying in Tampa Bay, where some say it is waiting for a major disaster?

Unfortunately, IMO, all coastal areas are at some point in the future "waiting" for or will be hit with a major disaster/storm. Not trying to cause a panic or offend anyone here but if you live on or near the coast then you are in a risk zone. Obvious statement I must admit but true. Some are more disaster prone than others (heavily industrialized, populated, city center etc) but all are at risk depending on the size/strength of storm, where and how the storm tracks, and other factors.

This is a fact and has been for 1000s of years. However, with the boom in developing, buying/selling, building in these coastal areas over the past 40-60 years comes the increased danger to human life and property. Tampa/St Pete, Miami, Lauderdale, Palm Beach, Jax, and the list goes on are fairly highly populated areas in Fla that if a massive strom hit there would be potential for high loss of life and property.

Knowing these facts, some people still want to be near/on the water and my wife and I and many of you are obviously in this group too. We know the risk and we are (or have been up to this point) willing to accept it. Other people do not like being near/on or even going to the beach or since these devistating storms have decided not to go or live near/on the water anymore.

In fact, this past weekend in SoWal we met a woman from coastal Miss and she told us that she lived on the gulf near Gulfport and loved it but that her house was totally wiped away by Katrina (nothing left at all). She was standing in front of us tearing up as she told us her story and then stopped tearing up and smiled and looked out at the water watching her kids skimboard along Eastern Lake outflow and said "we will rebuild and we will still live on the gulf because we love it and all it brings us in happiness.....maybe we will look in this area vs going back to Miss....?". That is the spirit of people that love the water.

Hmmm. Why is Tampa Bay waiting for a major disaster? Are they more likely to get hit by a devastating storm than we are? Is there something about Tampa (e.g., location, people, etc.) that makes it more at risk for devastation? (I'm asking because I have in-laws in Sarasota not too far from Tampa, so I'm wondering...)

From what I understand, it has to do with the shape of that particular Bay, which some scientist say puts Tampa Bay at great risk of major storm surge. Also, the Washington DC area is at high risk supposedly do to the Chesapeake Bay, and NYC is another place at great risk from storm surge. Of course, a storm would have to hit just right to bring the surge in, but if one does, they say the folks in those area should look out. I don't think these cities are below sea level like NOLA, but they may still have much damage due to the surge.

Hurricane Katrina emptied one city of its people and filled another.

Baton Rouge, Louisiana's capital, 80 miles north of New Orleans, is suddenly the largest city in the state, leaving local officials seeking solutions to the growth.

The Baton Rouge Metropolitan Airport was the second busiest airport in the nation Friday, according to The Advocate, a city newspaper.

Before the storm, the metropolitan area had a population of about 400,000. In Katrina's aftermath, Baton Rouge has grown by 50 percent, taking in nearly 200,000 people from New Orleans and surrounding areas, said David Guillory, special assistant to the director of the Baton Rouge Department of Public Works. Of that number, 8,000 to 10,000 displaced residents are living in shelters.

The estimates come from gauging variables, such as traffic counts, the amount of property sold and the number of hotel rooms occupied, he said.

"Baton Rouge is now the largest city in Louisiana, and I don't think it will change for another five to 10 years," Guillory said.

State and local officials held a three-day summit this week to discuss "how we go from being a medium-size city to a large-size city in a week's time," he added.

The most visible impact of the evacuees' arrival is the traffic. City officials say traffic counts show there are 35 to 45 percent more cars on the roads, and traffic already had been congested.

"It used to take me 30 minutes to get to work, and it now takes me two hours," said Courtney Finnan, who lives in a suburb and commutes to the city's center.

"My wife relocated her office here, and the other day it took her an hour-and-a-half to go 2 miles," said Charles Macalso, a New Orleans resident who frequently travels back to check on his home.

Guillory said city and state officials are working to solve traffic problems and hope to pass on solutions to federal officials for the necessary funding.

Among the long-term solutions are widening roads and constructing overpasses.

"The quickest solutions we have so far are changing the timing of traffic lights and eliminating left turns," Guillory said.

Student population surges

Buses carrying evacuees to schools will add to the traffic woes starting Monday.

Officials from the East Baton Rouge school system have been registering children from area shelters since they arrived, and late this week began notifying parents that buses will begin arriving next week.

Superintendent Charlotte Placide said the school system has seen a 10 percent increase in students since last week, and that the number likely will rise.

Many of the evacuees at the Baton Rouge River Center, a shelter run by the American Red Cross, said they didn't register their children for school because they hadn't made up their minds whether they are going to stay in Baton Rouge, move back to devastated areas or relocate to another state.

"I'll worry about school later, we're trying to get out of here first," said Andre Christophe, an evacuee at the River Center, and a father of four. "I'm waiting to get some money from FEMA, and then I'll figure out what I'll do."

Tami Head, a mother of four who arrived at the shelter Thursday, was too overwhelmed to think much about school. "[The kids] keep asking when we're going home, when they're going back to school, and I don't know what to tell them," she said.

Placide said many of them likely will settle in Baton Rouge. "I've heard a lot of people say this is home now -- 'I'm not leaving, I'm not going back,' " she said.

Business, real estate landscape change

Walter Monsour, chief administrator for East Baton Rouge Parish, said businesses also are settling in the city after evacuating from New Orleans.

Many businesses had headquarters in New Orleans and satellite operations in Baton Rouge. The arrangement has flip-flopped and rapidly changed the cityscape, Monsour said.

The real estate market is in a frenzy, gas stations sometimes are out of gas, and grocery stores are selling double their normal amount in some places.

"I've been in the business for 30 years, and we've never seen anything like this. The only other time I've seen something like this was when my daughter moved to Washington D.C." said Lara Dupree, the owner of Dupree, Terrell, and Company, a family-run real estate firm. "Any space where builders can build is being taken up."

The rush to build and the booming real estate market can be partly ascribed to the continuing efforts to find some sort of temporary housing for the evacuees, other than the shelters.

Authorities are enlisting a range of options -- cruise ships, travel trailers, mobile homes and government buildings that can quickly be converted into living quarters, said James McIntyre, a spokesperson for the Federal Emergency Management Agency's housing command in Baton Rouge.