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What will the Fed do ?

goofer avatar
Beach Fanatic
18,892 views
What will the Fed decide next week, October 31. Will they stand pat ? Lower the fed funds rate by 25 bps or by 50 bps ?
I think they will lower the funds rate by 25 bps to 4.50 % and the commentary will continue to have an easing bias. The USD will continue to get smooshed !! Will the ease help the housing market ? Will it ease the credit crunch ? Will it help those folks in jeopardy of losing their properties ?

Replies

118
seaside2 avatar
Beach Fanatic
#52
Considering the current economic outlook, how difficult would it be to convert $ to Euros Very Easy:D


and get a Swiss bank account? Very hard. Unless you have a lot of $, they are not interested in your business. Privacy doesn't come cheap
:angry:
scooterbug44 avatar
SoWal Expert
#53
How would you take x amount of $ and convert it to Euros and put it in a bank?

I've only gotten currency changed in small amounts so I had it for initial travel expenses, the rest always came out of foreign ATMs so you didn't pay a conversion fee and got the best rate.
SHELLY avatar
SoWal Insider
#54
How would you take x amount of $ and convert it to Euros and put it in a bank?

I've only gotten currency changed in small amounts so I had it for initial travel expenses, the rest always came out of foreign ATMs so you didn't pay a conversion fee and got the best rate.

Think liquidity. The FXE Euro Currency Trust: http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/fxe

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scooterbug44 avatar
SoWal Expert
#56
Crap, he's back!!! :angry:
Mango avatar
SoWal Insider
#57
Crap, he's back!!! :angry:

ya think? :lol:
The ignore feature is a beautiful thing. :wave:
rehdrahk avatar
Beach Lover
#58
He's Back?

Can someone more knowledgeable explain WHY they cut the rate again?

Take a moment to listed to what an educated, 20 year veteran of the House has to say about it before you instantly black list ('ignore') me ... I did not see any instant frustration with all the other links within this thread?
rehdrahk avatar
Beach Lover
#59
To answer your other question scooterbug if you are serious ...

You may want to consider Costa Rica ...

The Costa Rican colony is freely convertible into foreign currency and contracts may be negotiated in any currency. The Central Bank establishes exchange rates through auctions and a well-publicized policy of daily mini-devaluations.

http://www.american-european.net/offshore-banking.shtml

Edited

SHELLY avatar
SoWal Insider
#60
Please take a moment to watch this, the man knows what is going on:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAwvlDJgJbM&eurl=www.ronpaulnation.com/

I watched Bernanke's appearance before the committee today. Ron Paul really laid it on the line. Bernanke responded, in essence, that the weak dollar won't be a problem for the vast majority of Americans because they spend their money in the US anyway. Interesting to note how Bernanke rubbed his nose after his response to the Paul's comments (seen at the end of the above clip)--which in body language-speak is a sign of "rejection, doubt or lying." I'll take that as a "tell" as to what is really going on in his mind.

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seal avatar
Beach Lover
#61
Crap, he's back!!! :angry:

While some members of sowal might be overbearing, it does not mean that Ron Paul himself is not speaking the truth. No other politicians are speaking to the dilution(inflation) of the dollar by the Fed. The Fed is definitely between a rock and a hard place.

Remember, a definition of inflation is "too many dollars chasing too few goods". Have you all not noticed the sharp rise, this year, for goods across the board? This is the flip side of easy credit/low interest rates.

And now: http://www.currencytrading.net/2007...g-abandoning-the-us-dollar-and-what-it-means/
scooterbug44 avatar
SoWal Expert
#62
Sorry, factfinder made me jumpy about people suddenly posting answers to my questions that were youtube clips involving Ron Paul!

I don't ever watch clips, but written articles are good!
Yellow Hammer avatar
Beach Lover
#63
They are going to raise them 1/4 point.
NotDeadYet avatar
Beach Fanatic
#64
Bernanke responded, in essence, that the weak dollar won't be a problem for the vast majority of Americans because they spend their money in the US anyway.

I guess I don't understand this at all. :confused:
Don't the vast majority of Americans spend their money on stuff that is either manufactured out of the country, or has a significant oil input (transportation, plastic, fertilzer, etc.) somewhere along the line? :confused:

Isn't a weak dollar inflationary? :confused:

Am I missing something? :idontno:
scooterbug44 avatar
SoWal Expert
#65
I guess I don't understand this at all. :confused:
Don't the vast majority of Americans spend their money on stuff that is either manufactured out of the country, or has a significant oil input (transportation, plastic, fertilzer, etc.) somewhere along the line? :confused:

Isn't a weak dollar inflationary? :confused:

Am I missing something? :idontno:

No looking behind the curtain at the "real" Great & Powerful Oz! ;-)
elgordoboy avatar
Beach Fanatic
#66
I guess I don't understand this at all. :confused:
Don't the vast majority of Americans spend their money on stuff that is either manufactured out of the country, or has a significant oil input (transportation, plastic, fertilzer, etc.) somewhere along the line? :confused:

Isn't a weak dollar inflationary? :confused:

Am I missing something? :idontno:
Most of my money goes to my made in America mortgage, my American made vehicle, food grown here in the USA (not arguing the quantity of petroleum used to produce it). I buy books published here. I absolutely don't make a point of buying domestic anything, I may get a toyota truck next time, my plates I eat off of may be leaded :blink:..but the overwhelming majority of the money I spend stays here. I buy a tv every three years made in Korea maybe, my kitchen gadgets--China. All of it makes up a rather miniscule portion of my outlay and upkeep.
Bob avatar
SoWal Insider
#67
While some members of sowal might be overbearing, it does not mean that Ron Paul himself is not speaking the truth. No other politicians are speaking to the dilution(inflation) of the dollar by the Fed. The Fed is definitely between a rock and a hard place.

Remember, a definition of inflation is "too many dollars chasing too few goods". Have you all not noticed the sharp rise, this year, for goods across the board? This is the flip side of easy credit/low interest rates.

And now: http://www.currencytrading.net/2007...g-abandoning-the-us-dollar-and-what-it-means/
Amazingly food and energy are not worthy of measurement for core inflation. Makes you proud of our democracy, doesn't it?
SHELLY avatar
SoWal Insider
#68
I guess I don't understand this at all. :confused:
Don't the vast majority of Americans spend their money on stuff that is either manufactured out of the country, or has a significant oil input (transportation, plastic, fertilzer, etc.) somewhere along the line? :confused:

Isn't a weak dollar inflationary? :confused:

Am I missing something? :idontno:

When the "Dollar Tree" becomes the "Dollar-Fifty Tree" then folks will understand.


.
Bob avatar
SoWal Insider
#69
I watched Bernanke's appearance before the committee today. Ron Paul really laid it on the line. Bernanke responded, in essence, that the weak dollar won't be a problem for the vast majority of Americans because they spend their money in the US anyway. Interesting to note how Bernanke rubbed his nose after his response to the Paul's comments (seen at the end of the above clip)--which in body language-speak is a sign of "rejection, doubt or lying." I'll take that as a "tell" as to what is really going on in his mind.

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Are you a poker player or a day trader?
Bob avatar
SoWal Insider
#70
When the "Dollar Tree" becomes the "Dollar-Fifty Tree" then folks will understand.


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It'll be a dollar fifty tree when China let's it's currency go.
SHELLY avatar
SoWal Insider
#71
Are you a poker player or a day trader?

I don't day trade.

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Bob avatar
SoWal Insider
#72
I don't day trade.

.
You may when the rout begins.

Edited

SHELLY avatar
SoWal Insider
#73
You may when the route begins.

Wanna bet?

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Beach Comber
#74
Good thread. I would be interested to know if you guys are concerned about "Rule 157" and the date Nov 15th? I have a real concern that Citi might be insolvent?.and Ben looked worried today.
goofer avatar
Beach FanaticAuthor
#75
ok....I'll bite, what is rule 157 ? And no , I don't think Citi is insolvent.
SHELLY avatar
SoWal Insider
#76
ok....I'll bite, what is rule 157 ? And no , I don't think Citi is insolvent.

From Minyanville:

November 15

We continue to read more and more about this November 15 "deadline" for implementation of U.S. Financial Accounting Standards Board Rule 157 (FASB 157 for short) that make it harder for banks to avoid "mark-to-market pricing" of securities.

CFO Magazine has an article titled, "FASB 157 Could Cause Huge Write-Offs."
Why? Because under the new provisions firms are forced to whenever possible use "observable inputs" in pricing their Level Three assets.

In somewhat overly simplified terms, Level Three assets are those that may rely on mark-to-model inputs since they so rarely trade.

In may cases there is no way to price the securities. This gives the firms a lot of leeway in determining their value.

But when something does trade, under the new rules it forces that asset out of Level Three based on the pricing data that becomes an "observable input."

"It you think banks are writing off large amounts of assets now, wait until new accounting rules take effect this month," the CFO article says.

But Goldman Sachs (GS), Merrill Lynch (MER), JP Morgan (JPM), Morgan Stanley (MS) and Citigroup (C) already adopted early implementation of FASB 157 beginning in the first quarter of 2007.

Still, we keep reading vaguely grim predictions of looming disaster beginning on November 15.

What gives?

We think there may be confused causality here.

Firms such as American International (AIG) in their 10Q said they are "currently addressing the effect of implementing this guidance."

A lot of firms out there are in this boat.

Meanwhile, Wall Street's major firms are about the only firms that have already adopted the FASB 157 provisions.

The issue is not increased writedowns based on this FASB 157 "implementation date."

The issues remains the fear of forced sales creating "observable inputs" at distressed prices that will force assets to be valued at starkly lower levels.

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