Thread edited by Kurt to reflect discussion.
Josh's listing here - [ame="http://www.sowal.com/bb/showthread.php?t=18033"]2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach - SoWal Beaches Forum[/ame]
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Thanks!
Replies
80
Beach Lover
Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach
where is the magic "bottom of the market"???
where is the magic "bottom of the market"???
Beach FanaticAuthor
Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach
The magic bottom? I think we're very close. I was looking at the stats from Destin-Inlet Beach at the end of November. We have 3 less sales this year than 2006 with all of December left. Our months of inventory was also down compared to last year. Things are looking up. I think we'll see a larger increase in sales next year!
The magic bottom? I think we're very close. I was looking at the stats from Destin-Inlet Beach at the end of November. We have 3 less sales this year than 2006 with all of December left. Our months of inventory was also down compared to last year. Things are looking up. I think we'll see a larger increase in sales next year!
SoWal Insider
Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach
Josh,
What type of economic scenario do you envision to support your thesis that sales will improve next year?
.
The magic bottom? I think we're very close. I was looking at the stats from Destin-Inlet Beach at the end of November. We have 3 less sales this year than 2006 with all of December left. Our months of inventory was also down compared to last year. Things are looking up. I think we'll see a larger increase in sales next year!
Josh,
What type of economic scenario do you envision to support your thesis that sales will improve next year?
.
Beach FanaticAuthor
Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach
Shelly,
We've had a few more sales each month than in 2006. I personally am having much more activity with buyers now than even in the summer. It could be a personal increase, but I have talked to many Realtors that are seeing the same thing.
Houses are now becoming affordable to buyers who have been watching eagerly for 2+ years now. I met a gentleman the other day who came down to look at property (from Atlanta) and said that he was "shocked to see this many good deals available already."
I'm not saying that price decreases won't continue into next year. I think several areas are still overpriced, but I believe sales will rise overall. There are a lot of GREAT deals out there at this time. If you would have told people 3 years ago that they'd soon be buying properties under $150/ft they would have called you crazy! I know several properties that you couldn't reproduce for the sales price. I think you have to be near the bottom when that's happening.
I don't see another boom by any means, but I think we will see increases in sales for the next several years to come and increasing prices soon enough. All of this is my personal opinion from studying the market Shelly.
Josh,
What type of economic scenario do you envision to support your thesis that sales will improve next year?
.
Shelly,
We've had a few more sales each month than in 2006. I personally am having much more activity with buyers now than even in the summer. It could be a personal increase, but I have talked to many Realtors that are seeing the same thing.
Houses are now becoming affordable to buyers who have been watching eagerly for 2+ years now. I met a gentleman the other day who came down to look at property (from Atlanta) and said that he was "shocked to see this many good deals available already."
I'm not saying that price decreases won't continue into next year. I think several areas are still overpriced, but I believe sales will rise overall. There are a lot of GREAT deals out there at this time. If you would have told people 3 years ago that they'd soon be buying properties under $150/ft they would have called you crazy! I know several properties that you couldn't reproduce for the sales price. I think you have to be near the bottom when that's happening.
I don't see another boom by any means, but I think we will see increases in sales for the next several years to come and increasing prices soon enough. All of this is my personal opinion from studying the market Shelly.
Beach Lover
Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach
Shelly,
Unless I am confused. 2007 HOMES sales figures were already within 3 sales of 2006 with a month to go. Based on the numbers, we should see another 35 + - sales in December. This will put the area up approximately 5% over last year. Since the market trended downward for two years. Now with a move upward, all would only assume there is some light at the end of the tunnel. Please keep in mind this does not include the horrible condo market which I think you may see in a slump for a while longer.
Sorry, I am not Josh but this is my 2 cents worth. That and 298,999.98 will buy this house he has listed.
Shelly,
Unless I am confused. 2007 HOMES sales figures were already within 3 sales of 2006 with a month to go. Based on the numbers, we should see another 35 + - sales in December. This will put the area up approximately 5% over last year. Since the market trended downward for two years. Now with a move upward, all would only assume there is some light at the end of the tunnel. Please keep in mind this does not include the horrible condo market which I think you may see in a slump for a while longer.
Sorry, I am not Josh but this is my 2 cents worth. That and 298,999.98 will buy this house he has listed.
Beach FanaticAuthor
Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach
Let me elaborate a little further on my thoughts Shelly. I completely understand your thoughts on the local/national housing slump dragging on under current economic circumstances. This is a very strong second home market as you know. People will continue to buy what they perceive to be good deals to use as vacation homes. People from Nashville,Atlanta,Birmingham, etc... will continue purchasing homes here for personal use despite overall economic conditions IMO. Most buyers are not like Capricious for example. I know many people from Nashville (my home town) who are ready to jump in early next year so that their families have a place to vaction in the summer. I can assure you that most Realtors have their fair share of buyers salivating over this market right now. I think that's a big difference from what I saw at the end of 2006.
Let me elaborate a little further on my thoughts Shelly. I completely understand your thoughts on the local/national housing slump dragging on under current economic circumstances. This is a very strong second home market as you know. People will continue to buy what they perceive to be good deals to use as vacation homes. People from Nashville,Atlanta,Birmingham, etc... will continue purchasing homes here for personal use despite overall economic conditions IMO. Most buyers are not like Capricious for example. I know many people from Nashville (my home town) who are ready to jump in early next year so that their families have a place to vaction in the summer. I can assure you that most Realtors have their fair share of buyers salivating over this market right now. I think that's a big difference from what I saw at the end of 2006.
Skunky
Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach
I am no realtor or economist, but does it really matter if there were a few more sales this year relative to last considering the much larger increase in inventory? The last stats I saw showed inventory way up versus last year, days on market up, asking price about the same, sales prices lower (that is off memory, I might be remembering this incorrectly). Am I incorrect?
I am no realtor or economist, but does it really matter if there were a few more sales this year relative to last considering the much larger increase in inventory? The last stats I saw showed inventory way up versus last year, days on market up, asking price about the same, sales prices lower (that is off memory, I might be remembering this incorrectly). Am I incorrect?
SoWal Insider
Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach
I know.
.
Shelly,
If you would have told people 3 years ago that they'd soon be buying properties under $150/ft they would have called you crazy!
I know..
SoWal Expert
Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach
Realtor says "it's a good time to buy", Shelley thinks the economy is tanking, must be a day that ends in "y" ;-).
Realtor says "it's a good time to buy", Shelley thinks the economy is tanking, must be a day that ends in "y" ;-).
Beach Lover
Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach
These are housing figures ONLY.
Inventory level for Nov. 2006 was 2402 vs Nov. 2007 2441which is about 2% increase in inventory.
Sales are up approx. 5% vs 2006.
2006 inventory vs sales was 71 months of inventory.
2007 inventory vs sales was 66 months of inventory. Down approx. 8%
I watch this very closely as I own a lot of property here. Still not Good but I am happy the bleeding is slowing down and showing some signs of upward trend.
The numbers are showing a SLIGHT turn.
These are housing figures ONLY.
Inventory level for Nov. 2006 was 2402 vs Nov. 2007 2441which is about 2% increase in inventory.
Sales are up approx. 5% vs 2006.
2006 inventory vs sales was 71 months of inventory.
2007 inventory vs sales was 66 months of inventory. Down approx. 8%
I watch this very closely as I own a lot of property here. Still not Good but I am happy the bleeding is slowing down and showing some signs of upward trend.
The numbers are showing a SLIGHT turn.
Beach FanaticAuthor
Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach
I find it important that sales are going up instead of down. I think that more sales is important regardless of inventory levels.
I am no realtor or economist, but does it really matter if there were a few more sales this year relative to last considering the much larger increase in inventory? The last stats I saw showed inventory way up versus last year, days on market up, asking price about the same, sales prices lower (that is off memory, I might be remembering this incorrectly). Am I incorrect?
I find it important that sales are going up instead of down. I think that more sales is important regardless of inventory levels.
Beach FanaticAuthor
Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach
I wasn't here during that time, but I know you were bashed on your views of the market back then. What are your thoughts on the future of this market?
.
I wasn't here during that time, but I know you were bashed on your views of the market back then. What are your thoughts on the future of this market?
Beach Fanatic
Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach
"...I can assure you that most Realtors have their fair share of buyers salivating over this market right now. I think that's a big difference from what I saw at the end of 2006..."
Maybe Norman can finally unload all those properties.
"...I can assure you that most Realtors have their fair share of buyers salivating over this market right now. I think that's a big difference from what I saw at the end of 2006..."
Maybe Norman can finally unload all those properties.
Beach FanaticAuthor
Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach
Maybe one day you'll be able to afford one.
Maybe one day you'll be able to afford one.
SoWal Insider
Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach
I think folks who believe it will bounce back in Spring will be disappointed--especially those who have never gotten their brain around the real reasons it took off in the first place.
.
What are your thoughts on the future of this market?
I think folks who believe it will bounce back in Spring will be disappointed--especially those who have never gotten their brain around the real reasons it took off in the first place.
.
Beach Comber
Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach
2007 inventory vs sales was 66 months of inventory
5 1/2 years? So, if no one adds any houses to the market it will take 5 1/2 years to burn through this inventory. Please let me know if I am understanding this correctly.
These are housing figures ONLY.
Inventory level for Nov. 2006 was 2402 vs Nov. 2007 2441which is about 2% increase in inventory.
Sales are up approx. 5% vs 2006.
2006 inventory vs sales was 71 months of inventory.
2007 inventory vs sales was 66 months of inventory. Down approx. 8%
I watch this very closely as I own a lot of property here. Still not Good but I am happy the bleeding is slowing down and showing some signs of upward trend.
The numbers are showing a SLIGHT turn.
2007 inventory vs sales was 66 months of inventory
5 1/2 years? So, if no one adds any houses to the market it will take 5 1/2 years to burn through this inventory. Please let me know if I am understanding this correctly.
SoWal Insider
Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach
Yes...that's the upward trend.
But I believe we'll be seeing a big jump in inventory in the coming year. Inventory has held steady is a result of people pulling their homes off the market to (1) attempt to rent them in order to generate some kind of cashflow; (2) put them up for auction; or (3) take a break during the holidays and relist them for the big 2008 "Spring bounce." (And a few have fallen into foreclosure.)
.
2007 inventory vs sales was 66 months of inventory
5 1/2 years? So, if no one adds any houses to the market it will take 5 1/2 years to burn through this inventory. Please let me know if I am understanding this correctly.
Yes...that's the upward trend.
But I believe we'll be seeing a big jump in inventory in the coming year. Inventory has held steady is a result of people pulling their homes off the market to (1) attempt to rent them in order to generate some kind of cashflow; (2) put them up for auction; or (3) take a break during the holidays and relist them for the big 2008 "Spring bounce." (And a few have fallen into foreclosure.)
.
Beach Lover
Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach
I pretty much agree with what Shelley said above. We will see a spike in inventory early 2008. Plus 2008 will be known as the "year of foreclosure" unless congress saves the subprime loans from ballooning:
"Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, seeking to limit damage from a subprime-mortgage crisis that threatens to end the U.S. economic expansion, said he's confident the government and banks will agree on a plan this week.
Paulson is negotiating a deal among banks, mortgage servicers and securities-industry lobbyists to fix some subprime mortgage rates before they reset higher and trigger a wave of defaults. The Treasury chief also proposed letting state and local governments temporarily exempt taxes on bonds issued to help refinance subprime borrowers."
http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071204/BUSINESS04/712040391/1002/BUSINESS
I pretty much agree with what Shelley said above. We will see a spike in inventory early 2008. Plus 2008 will be known as the "year of foreclosure" unless congress saves the subprime loans from ballooning:
"Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, seeking to limit damage from a subprime-mortgage crisis that threatens to end the U.S. economic expansion, said he's confident the government and banks will agree on a plan this week.
Paulson is negotiating a deal among banks, mortgage servicers and securities-industry lobbyists to fix some subprime mortgage rates before they reset higher and trigger a wave of defaults. The Treasury chief also proposed letting state and local governments temporarily exempt taxes on bonds issued to help refinance subprime borrowers."
http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071204/BUSINESS04/712040391/1002/BUSINESS
Skunky
Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach
Josh-I don't understand why people would want to buy one of these houses for vacation purposes and assume all the hassles of ownership when they can live like kings in a rental for a few thousand dollars two weeks every year. I can't imagine it is easy to sell people on the idea that these properties are good investments since their current prices are obviously inflated higher than what the market will allow. I don't have access to the data you guys have, I am just looking at the vacant houses on my street with weeds growing up around them while smoke alarms chirp inside because the batteries are dying. We will just have to see, but I bet things will be pretty slow for awhile.
Josh-I don't understand why people would want to buy one of these houses for vacation purposes and assume all the hassles of ownership when they can live like kings in a rental for a few thousand dollars two weeks every year. I can't imagine it is easy to sell people on the idea that these properties are good investments since their current prices are obviously inflated higher than what the market will allow. I don't have access to the data you guys have, I am just looking at the vacant houses on my street with weeds growing up around them while smoke alarms chirp inside because the batteries are dying. We will just have to see, but I bet things will be pretty slow for awhile.
Beach Lover
Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach
Joe Mammy,
I can't disagree that there will be a spike in inventory during spring of 08 as the foreclosures should show the fallout a little more significantly. However, I do believe people are realizing the deals that can be had. There are a lot of foriegn investors looking at our market right now. The dollar is weak and this makes it very intriguing to foriegn investors. The stock market has also been fairly strong for several months now and should slow down by mid year with elections coming. People should pull out profits and be looking for a place to put them,
I am actually planning on moving back into buying mode early spring as well as several associates of mine.
I am not saying the market is back and booming by any means but do see it bottoming out with a slow recovery.
Real estate always bounces back and has been a good investment for 231 years. It will also be a good investment for the next 231 years.
No More Land. More People. Good Location.
Hang on a minute......I am writing up a contract as I speak.
Joe Mammy,
I can't disagree that there will be a spike in inventory during spring of 08 as the foreclosures should show the fallout a little more significantly. However, I do believe people are realizing the deals that can be had. There are a lot of foriegn investors looking at our market right now. The dollar is weak and this makes it very intriguing to foriegn investors. The stock market has also been fairly strong for several months now and should slow down by mid year with elections coming. People should pull out profits and be looking for a place to put them,
I am actually planning on moving back into buying mode early spring as well as several associates of mine.
I am not saying the market is back and booming by any means but do see it bottoming out with a slow recovery.
Real estate always bounces back and has been a good investment for 231 years. It will also be a good investment for the next 231 years.
No More Land. More People. Good Location.
Hang on a minute......I am writing up a contract as I speak.
SoWal Expert
Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach
If you have the $, I can definitely see the benefits to having your own vacation home instead of dealing with a rental that requires advance planning and has set dates.
I know some local "vacation homes" that are occupied more than 50% of the year by the owners, their extended family, or friends and more and more people are buying vacation homes with the idea that it will someday be their retirement home.
Josh-I don't understand why people would want to buy one of these houses for vacation purposes and assume all the hassles of ownership when they can live like kings in a rental for a few thousand dollars two weeks every year.
If you have the $, I can definitely see the benefits to having your own vacation home instead of dealing with a rental that requires advance planning and has set dates.
I know some local "vacation homes" that are occupied more than 50% of the year by the owners, their extended family, or friends and more and more people are buying vacation homes with the idea that it will someday be their retirement home.
Admin
Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach
I posted about a year ago that it would be December 20th, 4AM, 2007, a little tongue in cheek of course, but the bottom is here now for some, or at least close enough.
But you may not know it for a couple of years. The main reason is because there is still a lot of property priced high and still a lot of people hanging on before having to let go, or remaining listed without needing to. This is easily seen where you have similar properties in the same neighborhood with prices far apart.
I have lately seen a lot of prices at 50% or so of what they were between now and 2 years ago. There is a lot of inventory, and a lot of it is still priced unrealistic, but I feel there is a lot of property on the market that is priced as low as it will go and some of it is selling. Who is buying? The folks who will be bragging in a few years if they are the type to brag. Most likely though they will be too busy selling to have time to brag.
Buying at the absolute bottom is not necessary and usually a fantasy.
As of this moment, the better and more important question is:
"Where is the magic top of the market"?
where is the magic "bottom of the market"???
I posted about a year ago that it would be December 20th, 4AM, 2007, a little tongue in cheek of course, but the bottom is here now for some, or at least close enough.
But you may not know it for a couple of years. The main reason is because there is still a lot of property priced high and still a lot of people hanging on before having to let go, or remaining listed without needing to. This is easily seen where you have similar properties in the same neighborhood with prices far apart.
I have lately seen a lot of prices at 50% or so of what they were between now and 2 years ago. There is a lot of inventory, and a lot of it is still priced unrealistic, but I feel there is a lot of property on the market that is priced as low as it will go and some of it is selling. Who is buying? The folks who will be bragging in a few years if they are the type to brag. Most likely though they will be too busy selling to have time to brag.
Buying at the absolute bottom is not necessary and usually a fantasy.
As of this moment, the better and more important question is:
"Where is the magic top of the market"?
Beach FanaticAuthor
Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach
I agree whole heartedly that their will be more homes on the market come this spring. I also believe there will be more buyers searching and buying! We'll know soon enough, it's almost here!
I pretty much agree with what Shelley said above. We will see a spike in inventory early 2008. Plus 2008 will be known as the "year of foreclosure" unless congress saves the subprime loans from ballooning:
"Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, seeking to limit damage from a subprime-mortgage crisis that threatens to end the U.S. economic expansion, said he's confident the government and banks will agree on a plan this week.
Paulson is negotiating a deal among banks, mortgage servicers and securities-industry lobbyists to fix some subprime mortgage rates before they reset higher and trigger a wave of defaults. The Treasury chief also proposed letting state and local governments temporarily exempt taxes on bonds issued to help refinance subprime borrowers."
http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071204/BUSINESS04/712040391/1002/BUSINESS
I agree whole heartedly that their will be more homes on the market come this spring. I also believe there will be more buyers searching and buying! We'll know soon enough, it's almost here!
Beach FanaticAuthor
Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach
I think Scooter did a good job of answering this question above. All people don't want to live like kings in a rental for 2 weeks a year. Some people like purchasing vacation homes as a long term investment/ sleeping in their own beds/ the pride of ownership, etc...
I'm not saying that things won't be slow for a while. Simply believe that the market will start ticking upwards before we know it. Same scenario of a couple years ago when MOST people didn't see the market turning downards. Hindsight is 20/20.
Josh-I don't understand why people would want to buy one of these houses for vacation purposes and assume all the hassles of ownership when they can live like kings in a rental for a few thousand dollars two weeks every year. I can't imagine it is easy to sell people on the idea that these properties are good investments since their current prices are obviously inflated higher than what the market will allow. I don't have access to the data you guys have, I am just looking at the vacant houses on my street with weeds growing up around them while smoke alarms chirp inside because the batteries are dying. We will just have to see, but I bet things will be pretty slow for awhile.
I think Scooter did a good job of answering this question above. All people don't want to live like kings in a rental for 2 weeks a year. Some people like purchasing vacation homes as a long term investment/ sleeping in their own beds/ the pride of ownership, etc...
I'm not saying that things won't be slow for a while. Simply believe that the market will start ticking upwards before we know it. Same scenario of a couple years ago when MOST people didn't see the market turning downards. Hindsight is 20/20.
Beach FanaticAuthor
Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach
Good post Kurt.
I couldn't agree with this comment more.
"Buying at the absolute bottom is not necessary and usually a fantasy."
I posted about a year ago that it would be December 20th, 4AM, 2007, a little tongue in cheek of course, but the bottom is here now for some, or at least close enough.
But you may not know it for a couple of years. The main reason is because there is still a lot of property priced high and still a lot of people hanging on before having to let go, or remaining listed without needing to. This is easily seen where you have similar properties in the same neighborhood with prices far apart.
I have lately seen a lot of prices at 50% or so of what they were between now and 2 years ago. There is a lot of inventory, and a lot of it is still priced unrealistic, but I feel there is a lot of property on the market that is priced as low as it will go and some of it is selling. Who is buying? The folks who will be bragging in a few years if they are the type to brag. Most likely though they will be too busy selling to have time to brag.
Buying at the absolute bottom is not necessary and usually a fantasy.
As of this moment, the better and more important question is:
"Where is the magic top of the market"?
Good post Kurt.
I couldn't agree with this comment more.
"Buying at the absolute bottom is not necessary and usually a fantasy."
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