I post on the board sometime, but I've created a new name because I don't have Shelly's backbone and I don't want to be harrassed.
Most everything I here are real estate horror stories. Foreclosures, dropping housing prices, huge inventories, but by far most of the posts in the forum are positive - with the exception of Shelly who gets pounded by most everyone for being, in my opinion, too much of a realists.
My thing is that it seems to me most everyone who posts regularly in this section, most often, most positive, etc. have stake in the real estate game, either investors, realtors, developers, business owners all of which have strong personal interests in a strong real estate market or at least of the perception of an improving market.
I am leary these days of asking investing advice of anyone who makes a living in the real estate market. Car salesmen will always tell you its a great time to buy.
Hey. The market is AWFUL. It's the worst real estate market since the great depression, and how could anyone with straight face say it's a great time to invest in real estate unless you have the money and intention of holding on to it for many years.
So, my question is this, by a show of hands, and in the interest of full self disclosure, how many of the frequent posters on here, including the webmaster, have a personal interest, whether through themselves or there spouses, in real estate to include realtors, developers, homeowners with property currently on the market, marketers that advertise real estate through print or the web so that those of us who are have no interest can know who is being completely unbiased and who may have other motivations for constantly wearing their rose colored sunglasses at night.
Replies
119
Beach Fanatic
I post on the board sometime, but I've created a new name because I don't have Shelly's backbone and I don't want to be harrassed.Don't be a sissy..post it under your regular ID.
Most everything I here are real estate horror stories. Foreclosures, dropping housing prices, huge inventories, but by far most of the posts in the forum are positive - with the exception of Shelly who gets pounded by most everyone for being, in my opinion, too much of a realists.
My thing is that it seems to me most everyone who posts regularly in this section, most often, most positive, etc. have stake in the real estate game, either investors, realtors, developers, business owners all of which have strong personal interests in a strong real estate market or at least of the perception of an improving market.
I am leary these days of asking investing advice of anyone who makes a living in the real estate market. Car salesmen will always tell you its a great time to buy.
Hey. The market is AWFUL. It's the worst real estate market since the great depression, and how could anyone with straight face say it's a great time to invest in real estate unless you have the money and intention of holding on to it for many years.
So, my question is this, by a show of hands, and in the interest of full self disclosure, how many of the frequent posters on here, including the webmaster, have a personal interest, whether through themselves or there spouses, in real estate to include realtors, developers, homeowners with property currently on the market, marketers that advertise real estate through print or the web so that those of us who are have no interest can know who is being completely unbiased and who may have other motivations for constantly wearing their rose colored sunglasses at night.
SoWal Insider
What's your point? Don't buy anything. Put your money in a cd, and rent when at the beach. Wear sunscreen and double deadbolt your doors while wearing latex gloves to protect you from germs.......pssst here's a secret.....everyone's biased whether they make their living from real estate or not. Right Shelly?
SoWal Insider
What's your point? Don't buy anything. Put your money in a cd, and rent when at the beach. Wear sunscreen and double deadbolt your doors while wearing latex gloves to protect you from germs.......pssst here's a secret.....everyone's biased whether they make their living from real estate or not. Right Shelly?
Biased? Why of course!....I own a few thousand shares in the Latex Glove and Tin Foil Hat Factory in China.
BTW TooScared...are you wanting to ask about Real Estate investing advice? I doubt you'll get a roll call of folks on the board stating their involvement with the RE biz, so don't hold your breath. You sound as if you've got the market pretty much sussed out--I'd leave it at that.
In defense of the folks in the RE biz. It's their job to present a positive spin on the market--real or implied--can't fault them for that. It's up to the viewers and buyers to agree or disagree--can't fault them for that. It is up to the investor/consumer to do the due diligence before making a commitment whether it is purchasing a stock, a used car or a condo. I always keep this saying in the back of my mind, "Never ask a barber if you need a haircut." (Oh! And never ask anyone on a message board for investing advice.) Think about it.
.
Beach Fanatic
Shelly you may want to diversify from latex and tin hats...follow me here my broker just turned me on to trampoline futures. (tall buildings, places to land, etc.)
Beach Fanatic
I post on the board sometime, but I've created a new name because I don't have Shelly's backbone and I don't want to be harrassed.
Geez.
What a downer post.
Maybe this will cheer you up:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2004/08/20040809-9.html
Ben & George are gonna take care of everything.
Cheers !
Beach Lover
"Hey. The market is AWFUL. It's the worst real estate market since the great depression, and how could anyone with straight face say it's a great time to invest in real estate unless you have the money and intention of holding on to it for many years."
Maybe you answered your own question.
Maybe you answered your own question.
Beach Fanatic
Regardless of the state of the market, most people (I believe) are affected by the current state of affairs, because their principal investments are with real estate - a house (or 2 or 3) will typically be the biggest purchase one makes.
Some people on this board know me and know that my work is tied to RE development but what I say below is truely personal.
Many others who post regularly understand much more than I about the signs in the economy, real estate current woes, sub-prime mortgage mess, etc, etc.. but this is the little I know.....
I LOVE living here, my family and I invested in property in 2005 at the peak of the market - many people may find that really stupid - but all we knew and what we still know is that we loved living here and saw the potential. We invested certainly hoping we would not lose our shirts, but we were/still are committed to this area, believe that like many other businesses, RE has its cycles, have absolutely no idea when things will start to turn around but believe with absolute certainty that this little paradise we live in will continue to grow and prosper in the long run.
I could be sitting with a calculator and depressing myself with the money we MAY have lost OR I could throw myself into my work and work on making this place a little bit more pleasant and beautiful and desirable! And in the meantime, I am going to really enjoy living here, enjoy the new services that seem to pop up with increased frequency and specifically, take advantage of our spectacular nature preserves and enviable beaches!
Thanks and happy weekend.
Some people on this board know me and know that my work is tied to RE development but what I say below is truely personal.
Many others who post regularly understand much more than I about the signs in the economy, real estate current woes, sub-prime mortgage mess, etc, etc.. but this is the little I know.....
I LOVE living here, my family and I invested in property in 2005 at the peak of the market - many people may find that really stupid - but all we knew and what we still know is that we loved living here and saw the potential. We invested certainly hoping we would not lose our shirts, but we were/still are committed to this area, believe that like many other businesses, RE has its cycles, have absolutely no idea when things will start to turn around but believe with absolute certainty that this little paradise we live in will continue to grow and prosper in the long run.
I could be sitting with a calculator and depressing myself with the money we MAY have lost OR I could throw myself into my work and work on making this place a little bit more pleasant and beautiful and desirable! And in the meantime, I am going to really enjoy living here, enjoy the new services that seem to pop up with increased frequency and specifically, take advantage of our spectacular nature preserves and enviable beaches!
Thanks and happy weekend.
Beach Fanatic
No primary interest- neither me nor Mr. Mouse.
But because the real estate machine takes up such a significant part of the local economy, if you live down here and have to work for a living, you'll feel secondary effects to some degree or another. Which isn't entirely bad if you're talking a market that's becomming affordable to middle income wage earners again.
But because the real estate machine takes up such a significant part of the local economy, if you live down here and have to work for a living, you'll feel secondary effects to some degree or another. Which isn't entirely bad if you're talking a market that's becomming affordable to middle income wage earners again.
SoWal Expert
Wow, a downer indeed. Are you trying to drive prices further down so that you can buy in? You state the market is the worse since the Not-So-Great Depression. Upon what evidence do you base that? I look at the sales numbers and see that prices in SoWal for Single family homes are around the prices of 2004-2005, which were two of the best years in history for real estate. This is fact based, not just some defensive stand to your post. So again, where do you get your information on this being such a Debbie Downer market? I'm not saying the market is all rosy, but you don't paint a balanced picture -- just a snapshot of one aspect of the market.
You need to remember that many people bought property in SoWal prior to 2003, and most of them will still profit from selling, even if they undercut the people in trouble. As for buyers, there are buyers who thought they were priced out of the market back in 2004-2005, and they are now seeing some cases of prices being lower, so they are tickled pink. These are end-users of property, not speculators. For buyers to be able to come in at major discounts in certain cases, it's a good thing. WaterColor and WaterSound are two areas where prices have decreased more than the broader area of SoWal, and there are some good buys to be had in there. Is it possible that prices could drop more, yes. However, people buying luxury items, like a second home at the beach, cannot time the market. If people could time the market, don't you think that everyone would have sold at the market's peak?
I suggest that you look at the broader picture, rather than the debbie downer segment, which does exist. Every day, I awaken to NPR on the radio, and at least one of the stories is the terrible state of our economy, the mortgage biz, and or the terrible real estate market. If people hear it enough, maybe they begin to believe it. That is what we have seen in the slow number of sales, but it relates only to one segment of the current market. Real Estate is local.
Almost forgot, for full disclosure, I am a Realtor, and people should know that all property is always for sale. Sometimes people like to pretend that a particular piece isn't for sale when a buyer is interested, but it's always for sale.
You need to remember that many people bought property in SoWal prior to 2003, and most of them will still profit from selling, even if they undercut the people in trouble. As for buyers, there are buyers who thought they were priced out of the market back in 2004-2005, and they are now seeing some cases of prices being lower, so they are tickled pink. These are end-users of property, not speculators. For buyers to be able to come in at major discounts in certain cases, it's a good thing. WaterColor and WaterSound are two areas where prices have decreased more than the broader area of SoWal, and there are some good buys to be had in there. Is it possible that prices could drop more, yes. However, people buying luxury items, like a second home at the beach, cannot time the market. If people could time the market, don't you think that everyone would have sold at the market's peak?
I suggest that you look at the broader picture, rather than the debbie downer segment, which does exist. Every day, I awaken to NPR on the radio, and at least one of the stories is the terrible state of our economy, the mortgage biz, and or the terrible real estate market. If people hear it enough, maybe they begin to believe it. That is what we have seen in the slow number of sales, but it relates only to one segment of the current market. Real Estate is local.
Almost forgot, for full disclosure, I am a Realtor, and people should know that all property is always for sale. Sometimes people like to pretend that a particular piece isn't for sale when a buyer is interested, but it's always for sale.
Edited
Beach Fanatic
I raise my hand. I am a Real Estate agent! Please don't tell anyone. I try to keep my identity unknown.
Beach Lover
Since I have been reading this board a few people have been constantly saying this could finally be the bottom, activity is picking up, etc. For the most part their lively hood is tied to real estate and they are up front about that fact.
As for me I am a buyer. I am actively seeking beachfront property. And all of the signs I am seeing are that prices have not stopped falling. The only exception possibly being the very high end stuff.
Short sales are now being replaced by forclosures. And until those are worked through the system I don't see much chance of a bounce.
I will be on the beach for a week at the end of this month. I may be making some cash offers, but if I do they will be very very low.
As I have stated before, better to buy a little too late when prices are heading up rather than too soon when the bottom has not been reached.
JMHO,
Flyguy
As for me I am a buyer. I am actively seeking beachfront property. And all of the signs I am seeing are that prices have not stopped falling. The only exception possibly being the very high end stuff.
Short sales are now being replaced by forclosures. And until those are worked through the system I don't see much chance of a bounce.
I will be on the beach for a week at the end of this month. I may be making some cash offers, but if I do they will be very very low.
As I have stated before, better to buy a little too late when prices are heading up rather than too soon when the bottom has not been reached.
JMHO,
Flyguy
SoWal Expert
As for me I am a buyer. I am actively seeking beachfront property. And all of the signs I am seeing are that prices have not stopped falling. The only exception possibly being the very high end stuff.
GulfFront properties, while included in my sales data for the area, is a different beast from interior property. There are many negative factors of owning Gulf Front, ranging from critical erosion, incorrectly placed seawalls (better read the FAR contracts regarding correct permitting), private vs public, additional maintenance required, etc. Prices of the Gulf Front properties don't reflect the trend of selling prices for the other single family homes in SoWal.
Beach Comber
If your not a gambler then don't go to the casino. Trust your own instincts and research, research, research. Sometimes you make the right call and sometimes the wrong. I will say that I feel like now is not the time to step in unless you have deep pockets and can afford to ride the waves. You shouldn't buy on an adjustable rate now. I forgot that this is probably part of what got the market here in the first place. It is definately shifted more to a buyers market in housing. The only real estate sector nationwide gaining momentum is farm land. Remember that some day down the road beach property will make a come back. Too many people wanting to retire, visit, and the prestige of a home on the beach. It may be a few years but a good buy now will be worth something down the road in my opinion. I remember staying in a home at Seaside in late 80's and could not believe they were asking 240,00 for it. That would steal make some money now. I am not a real estate agent or investor in the Fl market yet. Maybe a home owner at some point in the future. Near future hopefully.
Beach Lover
I hardly ever post, but read and learn a lot from everybody on this board. In all of this I have never heard the word CORRECTION, isn't this part of the downfall. Houses everywhere rose after the stock market CORRECTION when people started investing in real estate. It had to catch up sooner or later. Sure there are other issues with the economy, major thing would be the stability of oil prices. Dreaming - what would the economy do if oil prices dropped and stayed down for a LONG period of time.
Beach Fanatic
SoWal Insider
I LOVE living here, my family and I invested in property in 2005 at the peak of the market - many people may find that really stupid - but all we knew and what we still know is that we loved living here and saw the potential. We invested certainly hoping we would not lose our shirts, but we were/still are committed to this area, believe that like many other businesses, RE has its cycles, have absolutely no idea when things will start to turn around but believe with absolute certainty that this little paradise we live in will continue to grow and prosper in the long run.
Excellent Chickpea. We do not live there but we are property owners and we feel the same way. We went in as investors but consider ourselves end users. As a native Floridian I have a strong belief that SoWal is very, very special (yes, even after all the development) and that there is a great deal of inherent value in the homes and land within walking distance to the beach. When you take a step back, consider the lack of developable land vs. conservation land, the elevations along almost all of 30-A, and of course the very special beaches and beautiful water, it is hard not to be impressed. Add in the height restrictions and the fact that most of the housing is newer and better suited to withstand storms -- all this makes SoWal extremely unique.
Because of this inherent value, my main concern with the prices in SoWal is not the large inventory, or the major pieces of property either going back to the bank or rumored to be. My concern, and maybe I am not seeing is correctly but I can't help but thinking this way, is more the national perspective -- ie, what is the going rate for homes in Hilton Head? Naples? Cape Cod? Catalina Island? If prices are declining in all these places because coastal real estate prices jumped too far way too fast, then it is hard to say where the bottom will be.
I keep going back to Shawn Tully's excellent 2002 piece in Fortune that declared the housing runup had to be over because any more growth was unsustainable. I also remember back in the mid 90s when 350K was the going rate for a very expensive executive home. My guess is we will level out nationally somewhere around 2001-2002 prices for desirable coastal areas. In SoWal, I don't think they will drop that far because the infrastructure and construction quality is much better than it was in 2001-2002. In other words prices at the time were cheap to begin with, and I don't see how they could get that cheap again.
Of course, it is just my opinion, and I don't have property for sale.
SoWal Insider
If you are interested, here is the article I read in 2002. At the time we thought we would probably be relocating, and when we did a couple of months later, Tully's warning influenced us to go for the best buy we could find with a fixed rate mortgage because we figured the gravy train was over.
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2002/10/28/330962/index.htm
Sound like someone we know? :scratch:
SHELLY = SHawn TuLLY?
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2002/10/28/330962/index.htm
Sound like someone we know? :scratch:
SHELLY = SHawn TuLLY?
Edited
Beach Fanatic
"...If you are interested, here is the article ..."
A quote from your article:
"..Of course, even if we don't get a housing bubble, we may still wind up with a double-dip recession. An oil shock or a financial implosion could also pulverize the economy and slam housing prices...."
Housing buble?
Oil shock?
"financial implosion" (SIV, subprime, hedge fund)?
Recession?
What's the secret of his crystal ball?
Clairvoyance or common sense?
"Sound like someone we know?...."
Shelly had the same crystal ball.
And a few of the rest of us were not far behind.
A quote from your article:
"..Of course, even if we don't get a housing bubble, we may still wind up with a double-dip recession. An oil shock or a financial implosion could also pulverize the economy and slam housing prices...."
Housing buble?
Oil shock?
"financial implosion" (SIV, subprime, hedge fund)?
Recession?
What's the secret of his crystal ball?
Clairvoyance or common sense?
"Sound like someone we know?...."
Shelly had the same crystal ball.
And a few of the rest of us were not far behind.
Edited
Beach Lover
my hands up. Licensed at 18 GRI by 19. I do advertising as well though, you should buy some advertising for me.
SoWal Expert
Just so that we are on the same page, I'll share some numbers, from the Emerald Coast Assoc of Realtors, comparing the avg sales in SoWal, in the area between Bay County and Sandestin.
Detached Single Family
2005 compared to 2004
qty of sales, down 25%
price of sales, up 17%
2006 compared to 2005
qty of sales, down 57%
price of sales, up 15%
2007 compared to 2006
qty of sales, up 35%
price of sales, down 7%
The "peak of the market," according to qty of sales was June 05. That is when the Shelly's came out and said that the bubble had burst. However, looking at the statistical data, prices of homes sold, increased another 15%. Maybe Shelly was basing the bubble bursting on the quantity of sales, which decreased substantially, 57%. Avg Sales Prices did decrease in 2007, compared to 2006, but compare those of 2007, to 2005, when the "bubble burst," and you will see the avg sales price increase of 6%. Yes, the quantity of sales is down in 2007, compared to 2005. However, the quantity of sales in 2007, compared to 2006, has increased by 35%.
The avg selling price of homes (detached single family) in this area of SoWal, during 2007 is $937,532, and this is based on 361 sales.
Sure, there are foreclosures coming up, but looking at the recent history, it doesn't appear that has stopped homes from selling at prices which are historically significantly.
Detached Single Family
2005 compared to 2004
qty of sales, down 25%
price of sales, up 17%
2006 compared to 2005
qty of sales, down 57%
price of sales, up 15%
2007 compared to 2006
qty of sales, up 35%
price of sales, down 7%
The "peak of the market," according to qty of sales was June 05. That is when the Shelly's came out and said that the bubble had burst. However, looking at the statistical data, prices of homes sold, increased another 15%. Maybe Shelly was basing the bubble bursting on the quantity of sales, which decreased substantially, 57%. Avg Sales Prices did decrease in 2007, compared to 2006, but compare those of 2007, to 2005, when the "bubble burst," and you will see the avg sales price increase of 6%. Yes, the quantity of sales is down in 2007, compared to 2005. However, the quantity of sales in 2007, compared to 2006, has increased by 35%.
The avg selling price of homes (detached single family) in this area of SoWal, during 2007 is $937,532, and this is based on 361 sales.
Sure, there are foreclosures coming up, but looking at the recent history, it doesn't appear that has stopped homes from selling at prices which are historically significantly.
SoWal Expert
flyguy, here are some numbers for you, regarding sales for single family detached homes which are listed as Gulf Front, in the same area of SoWal, described in previous post.
2005
qty sold - 20
avg sales price - $3,570,167
2006
qty sold - 15
avg sales price - $4,796,296
2007
qty sold - 17
avg sales price - $3,252,738
Inventory in 2007 has remained fairly constant, but is up over the previous years.
2005
qty sold - 20
avg sales price - $3,570,167
2006
qty sold - 15
avg sales price - $4,796,296
2007
qty sold - 17
avg sales price - $3,252,738
Inventory in 2007 has remained fairly constant, but is up over the previous years.
SoWal Insider
"...If you are interested, here is the article ..."
A quote from your article:
"..Of course, even if we don't get a housing bubble, we may still wind up with a double-dip recession. An oil shock or a financial implosion could also pulverize the economy and slam housing prices...."
Housing buble?
Oil shock?
"financial implosion" (SIV, subprime, hedge fund)?
Recession?
What's the secret of his crystal ball?
Clairvoyance or common sense?
"Sound like someone we know?...."
Shelly had the same crystal ball.
And a few of the rest of us were not far behind.
All very true!
What does the crystal ball say about the economic stimulus package? :shock:
Beach Fanatic
The Trend I see are the A quaility properties are selling. I think it is pretty obvious that the RE market is hurting. If an agent tells you any different run! I think my rose colored glasses are a way I approach life. Probably why I am in sales. I also think if you work with someone you can trust (remember trust works both ways), you will be fine. As earlier stated, research, research!
Beach Fanatic
All very true!
What does the crystal ball say about the economic stimulus package? :shock:
About as effective as the government stimulus plans for
the recovery from Hurricane Katrina, if it happens at all.
At this point, it's too late for the government to do anything so
it might as well do nothing.
Shelly might have a different take as I know he/she has
immense confidence in the abilities and intellect of our
polititions.
SoWal Expert
What does the crystal ball say about the economic stimulus package? :shock:My Magic 8-Ball says that it may help stimulate the economy of China, since everything we buy today, seems to come from China. Don't think that China doesn't feel the hurt.
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