a reality check on "The Bubble" and fear of hurricanes

I just read a very interesting article in the latest Newsweek magazine by Jane Bryant Quinn. Here is an excerpt: "the boomer bulge is reaching 50 to 60?the age group that controls substantial wealth. Besides city condos and houses, they're looking for second homes, driving up prices for any lot with a water view larger than a puddle." It does go on to say that higher mortage rates could slow things down, however in our area many sales are cash.

It also indicates there is a "rolling bubble" where people leave Miami and go to places such as the Florida panhandle where they can get more for their money. However, our area in South Walton is so unique ( including the highest elevaton beach property in Florida and perhaps higher than most of the eastern Atlantic coast) that even when the prices get high here there is really no where else to go in coastal Florida for such beauty and safety from storm surge.

With the new international airport going in it will open up South Walton to the rest of the world.

Also the fear of hurricanes is overhyped for our area: as long as records have been kept (about 1870) South Walton has never had a Category 4 or 5 hurricane. We do have hurricanes here but they tend to be "milder" due to the pool of "cooler" water between us and the "hot water zone" that runs from west of Key West to almost Texas. Also in South Walton most of our homes are newer and are built to higher hurricane codes.

The worst hurricanes (cat. 4&5) historically hit from Pensacola west to Lousiana (5 cat 4&5 since late 1800s)(six if you count Katrina) and Texas(7 cat 4&5). South Florida has had 9 cat. 4&5 in the same time frame.

Don't you all just love it here!

Yes we do love it in SoWal and I love to hear that this article is out there. BTW (by the way), do you have the article or a link to it?

Thanks.

Wetwilly

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9555157/site/newsweek/

Thanks a million (or two).

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh! Sweet!

Uhhhh...actually, very few areas in the U.S. have experienced a Cat 4 or 5. We've had a few Cat 3 storms.

The rest of the info makes sense, though!

>>Lereah sees a world of "rolling booms," where people priced out of one city migrate to others?if not Miami, then Charleston, Pensacola or Virginia Beach. <<

Pensacola realtors sitting on a GLUT of $800,000 + homes and condos are saying "where are these people????" Owners of the Portifino Penhouses have been advertising and lowering the asking price and still no buyers.

These folks who are sitting in existing homes in the higher priced areas of South Florida know the market is softening and can afford to wait it out until the prices come down to attractive levels--which hasn't happened yet.

Since records were kept in the mid to late 1800s(depending on area) to 2004 these are the number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes to make landfall:

Texas: 7
Louisiana: 5
Southeastern Florida: 4
Southwest Florida: 5
Northeast and Northwest Florida: 0
total Cat. 4&5 including U.S. Atlantic east coast and Gulf: 21

The coast of Northeast Florida is low and prone to storm surge-not to meantion Atlantic tsunamis.

Walton beach areas-primarily on 30A- has land 30 to 50 feet above sea level in many locations.

Since records were kept in the mid to late 1800s(depending on area) to 2004 these are the number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes to make landfall:

Texas: 7
Louisiana: 5
Southeastern Florida: 4
Southwest Florida: 5
Northeast and Northwest Florida: 0
total Cat. 4&5 including U.S. Atlantic east coast and Gulf: 21

The coast of Northeast Florida is low and prone to storm surge-not to meantion Atlantic tsunamis.

Walton beach areas-primarily on 30A- has land 30 to 50 feet above sea level in many locations.

As they say in the stock market biz: "Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance."

People who rely heavily on past performance tend to suffer the most. They get complacent and make dangerous bets that set them up for disaster. Whether it's communities that overbuild too close to dangerous areas or folks who stuff their portfolios with tech stocks or speculative real estate--when the day of reckoning comes it always ends ugly.

What was Ivan classified as?

We have had a number of storms for which the wind speed weakened just before landfall but the storm surge still was the same as a Cat 4. Opal and Ivan come to mind. The storm surge in Grayton and Dune-Allen was deeper, more violent and went farther inland for Opal than it was for Elouise, which was Cat 3. Farther back, my father's generation spoke very reverently of the hurricanes of 1926 and 1936.

All I'm trying to say is that the threat for hurricanes exists. If I absolutely did not want my home to be approached by a Cat 4 hurricane, I'd live several states inland.

I agree a cat 4 or 5 could hit here(and I have done all I can do to prepare),but obviously from the data the probability for such a storm is less than in Louisiana, Texas and south Florida.

Storm surge is a danger to low elevation areas. Thats why when we moved here we made sure we built our house in an area on 30a that is over 30ft. above sea level.

Areas like Grayton Beach, Eastern Lake (and most of our coastal lake aeas and also along the bay) would be under water and could look like coastal Mississippi does now if hit by a Cat. 4 or 5.

When we first came here and looked at Pensacola beach and Destin's Holiday Isle we were not interested-in fact we were shocked that anyone would or be allowed to build there. I would doubt that any reasonable person would buy in such low areas after seeing what devastaton storm surge could do. The people who previously did buy there should have read 'Issacs Storm" about the hurricane storm surge that destroyed Galveston in the early 1900s.

Living close to the beach-about 1 to 2 blocks- actually reduces your chance of being hit by a strong spin off tornado because the Gulf actually is not a good spawning "ground" for tornados. So for some storms it would be safer in some areas of 30A than further inland. Most of the houses built here to the new building code enacted 3 years ago would stand up fairly well to most hurricane wind-not storm surge- and that is why the severity level of historic hurricane data is so relevant.

The value of property in low storm surge areas will be diminished if not from the safety concerns but from the cost of coastal flood insurance. Areas near the beach with high elevation will likely eventually "surge" even more in value.

As they say in the stock market biz: "Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance."

So true. I was in The Palm Beach/Jupiter/Stuart area several years ago looking at real estate. I asked the Palm Beach realtor about Andrew in '92. I couldn't remember if her area had any effects from that one. I'll never forget her oh so haughty answer, "We don't get hurricanes here." She said it in a disgusting way as if to imply hurricanes were not allowed in that area.

I often wondered about her and if the two storms that hit there last year changed her mind.

This year I had a friend from Jacksonville say their area was somehow topographically protected from storms. I wonder if Tammy at all shook his confidence. Probably not.

I asked the Palm Beach realtor about Andrew in '92. I couldn't remember if her area had any effects from that one. I'll never forget her oh so haughty answer, "We don't get hurricanes here." She said it in a disgusting way as if to imply hurricanes were not allowed in that area.

"We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out." -- Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962.

"Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible." -- Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895.

"Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." -- Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University, 1929.

"No flying machine will ever fly from New York to Paris." -- Orville Wright.

"Living close to the beach-about 1 to 2 blocks- actually reduces your chance of being hit by a strong spin off tornado because the Gulf actually is not a good spawning "ground" for tornados. So for some storms it would be safer in some areas of 30A than further inland. Most of the houses built here to the new building code enacted 3 years ago would stand up fairly well to most hurricane wind-not storm surge- and that is why the severity level of historic hurricane data is so relevant." -- Ecopal

Aren't we all just hoping for that 20 year window where nothing really bad happens?

Aren't we all just hoping for that 20 year window where nothing really bad happens?

Hoping for it is one thing....using it in a sales pitch is quite another.

Shelly,
I am sorry I wrote something you could not understand, but that does not give you the right to belittle it. I agree I wrote it a bit clumsily but would have been glad to clarify it for you.

I have always enjoyed reading your input and am greatly disappointed in your arrogant response. You appear to be quite well informed in some areas but it is obvious that neither meteorology or statistical probability are among them.

>>but it is obvious that neither meteorology or statistical probability are among them.<<

OK I'll bite.....what's the standard deviation of a hurricane (which will have any type of damaging impact) hitting the 30A area in any given year?

>>but it is obvious that neither meteorology or statistical probability are among them.<<

OK I'll bite.....what's the standard deviation of a hurricane (which will have any type of damaging impact) hitting the 30A area in any given year?

answer: after taking a rather long hit off the bong, "It's whatever you want it to be mannnnnnn."

This year I had a friend from Jacksonville say their area was somehow topographically protected from storms. I wonder if Tammy at all shook his confidence. Probably not.

A lot of people say this about the Georgia coast also, because the GA coast is somewhat enclaved by the coasts FL and SC. However, there is some interesting research floating around out there, which indicates that the GA coast was hammered by three strong storms in the mid to late 19th century. At least one of these storms is thought to have been a Cat 5, because a soil core taken several miles inland, in present day Long County, GA shows that there is a layer of paleosand that was churned up from the ocean floor and deposited on the site the core was taken by means of a massive storm surge.

Living close to the beach-about 1 to 2 blocks- actually reduces your chance of being hit by a strong spin off tornado because the Gulf actually is not a good spawning "ground" for tornados.

That sounds correct because the tornadoes form because of friction--to borrow this example from someone its like if you take a pencil and roll it on a solid surface with your hand, then imagine something tilting that spinning motion upwards--this is done by a thunderstorm updraft or sometimes by topographical features (possibly the reason why north GA saw 20+ tornadoes when Katrina came through, most of which occurred in Northeast GA, the foothills). So, this means that the areas most vulnerable to tropical spawned tornadoes are those areas well inland from where the rainbands come ashore, as this is where the greatest friction is. But it all depends on the angle the storm is moving. If you have a thunderstorm which is associated with a tropical entity come ashore out in say Bay or Gulf County and it is moving west/northwestward, it could get that frictional spin going with it and drop a tornado over coastal Walton County in theory.