A couple days ago I happened to be reading an article in the Atlanta Journal regarding the market in Panama City. There was a quote from Janet Roan, a local (PC, not Atl) real estate agent - "Now is the time to buy. It's a buyer's market." But she says, "If you are looking to buy something to flip it, don't even try it right now."
The catch? That article was from April 16, 2006.
There was another guy who had put contracts on 3 units in Panama City towers, pre-construction, each in the low 200k range. The article says the prices had tripled and then fell back but were still above his contract price. He said at the time he still expected to be able to sell at a comfortable profit although they were not yet completed. He was worried at the time that they may be overdeveloping the Panama City Beach area.
I'd like to see the AJC or some other organization do some follow up stories and talk to some of the same people interviewed previously. What does that agent think now? Did that guy close on his 3 properties and sell them or did he walk from his deposits? Is he stuck in 3 condos, eating a monthly mortgage while taking in some little bit of rent?
Replies
388
SoWal Expert
You have to remember that the Realtor was comparing the prices in 2006, to the recent historical highs of 2005. A Realtor cannot compare today's prices to the potential future prices. So was she wrong? Only in hind sight we know such things. If we could predict the future, we wouldn't be working.
Beach Lover
Thats why a grain of salt mixed in with investment advice is prudent.
The realtor thought she was right but history usually proves us all wrong.
A lot of realtors will just give you the facts, and let you decide, and I think this method is preferred.
The realtor thought she was right but history usually proves us all wrong.
A lot of realtors will just give you the facts, and let you decide, and I think this method is preferred.
Beach Fanatic
Amen, brother, amen
SoWal Insider
:shock: A Realtor said, "Now is The Time to Buy" ? :shock:
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Beach Fanatic
Thats why a grain of salt mixed in with investment advice is prudent.
The realtor thought she was right but history usually proves us all wrong.
A lot of realtors will just give you the facts, and let you decide, and I think this method is preferred.
Ditto!
Beach FanaticAuthor
You have to remember that the Realtor was comparing the prices in 2006, to the recent historical highs of 2005. A Realtor cannot compare today's prices to the potential future prices. So was she wrong? Only in hind sight we know such things. If we could predict the future, we wouldn't be working.
Of course you can only compare to the past prices. I think I would have preferred someone to say 'Prices are down x% from the highs of 2005', not a definitive statement such as the one above. 'Now is the time to buy' seems to give an entirely different piece of information, intentionally or unintentionally. By making that statement, she actually seems to be comparing 'now' to some point in the future that she thinks she has foreseen, IMHO.
SWGB
Looked her up on www.myfloridalicense.com, she still has an active real estate license, but like so many realtors is now exam eligible for her CAM license.
SoWal Expert
Of course you can only compare to the past prices. I think I would have preferred someone to say 'Prices are down x% from the highs of 2005', not a definitive statement such as the one above. 'Now is the time to buy' seems to give an entirely different piece of information, intentionally or unintentionally. By making that statement, she actually seems to be comparing 'now' to some point in the future that she thinks she has foreseen, IMHO.You make a very good point.
Beach Comber
Calling the bottom!
Enough Negativity. I am predicting we will hit the bottom of the market either this quarter or next! Definition -The total amount of totals sales of DSF homes will increase starting next qtr or the qtr after. That doesn't mean that house prices our at their lowest. Ex. If 3 homes sell in a qtr for $320 that's $960k in total sales. If next qtr 10 homes sell @ $300 each that is $3,000,000 in sales. And I am only talking about DSF homes. I think the condo market will take longer and the land market longer still.
Why? 1) prices are more realistic. After many months of lower prices and few sales, prices are acceptable- slightly above 2003 prices with a modest inflation rate. True vacationers think they can get a deal but aren't expecting a firesale 2) demand hasn't gone away, people are still renting like crazy here 3) the recession/ economy is only affecting certain segments. People have assessed their personal situations and have determined if they'll remain unscathed or not. I am seeing people look at making investments and other financial decisions 4) lower interest rates gets people thinking 5) I'm a contrarian - the negative news is so over the top it'll fade soon as a new news story takes over. It been taken account of in the US economy.
Let the arguing begin!
Enough Negativity. I am predicting we will hit the bottom of the market either this quarter or next! Definition -The total amount of totals sales of DSF homes will increase starting next qtr or the qtr after. That doesn't mean that house prices our at their lowest. Ex. If 3 homes sell in a qtr for $320 that's $960k in total sales. If next qtr 10 homes sell @ $300 each that is $3,000,000 in sales. And I am only talking about DSF homes. I think the condo market will take longer and the land market longer still.
Why? 1) prices are more realistic. After many months of lower prices and few sales, prices are acceptable- slightly above 2003 prices with a modest inflation rate. True vacationers think they can get a deal but aren't expecting a firesale 2) demand hasn't gone away, people are still renting like crazy here 3) the recession/ economy is only affecting certain segments. People have assessed their personal situations and have determined if they'll remain unscathed or not. I am seeing people look at making investments and other financial decisions 4) lower interest rates gets people thinking 5) I'm a contrarian - the negative news is so over the top it'll fade soon as a new news story takes over. It been taken account of in the US economy.
Let the arguing begin!
Beach Lover
Re: Calling the bottom!
Random PM Thought: Once the market stops looking at a second home at the beach as an "Investment" and begins to look at it as a place to get away to, then and only then will market stop it?s bleeding.
Random PM Thought: Once the market stops looking at a second home at the beach as an "Investment" and begins to look at it as a place to get away to, then and only then will market stop it?s bleeding.
Beach Fanatic
Re: Calling the bottom!
We actually had a market bottom prediction thread a while back. Is anyone keeping track of it, because I'm feeling really confident about my prediction at this point.
We actually had a market bottom prediction thread a while back. Is anyone keeping track of it, because I'm feeling really confident about my prediction at this point.
Beach Lover
Re: Calling the bottom!
I hope it happens soon. we have a lot in panama city and just want to break even at this point.
I hope it happens soon. we have a lot in panama city and just want to break even at this point.
SoWal Insider
Re: Calling the bottom!
Feb. 2009
You also said:
"I just don't think one party or the other makes a whole lot of difference in the market. Everything ebbs and flows from administration to administration. After about eight years the excesses of either party begins to take it's toll. It seems to me the huge debt that is being run up right now with no sort of fiscal responsibility brings in its own set of issues for investment. I worked in a different industry, but always found that when one party was in control all protection went to employer groups and hospitals, and eventually the squeeze would be so tight on doctors and customers and the next party would come in, fix some problems and create others...then the pendulum would swing the other way.
"I just don't trust a lot of the economic numbers coming out right now. And I think that as long as we pretend there is not a problem when everyone can clearly see there are problems, then nothing will get done. Capital gains are hurt as much by an extremely weak dollar as higher taxes, are they not?"
http://www.sowal.com/bb/showthread.php?t=9008&highlight=market+bottom+prediction
I never did stick my neck out and predict.
We actually had a market bottom prediction thread a while back. Is anyone keeping track of it, because I'm feeling really confident about my prediction at this point.
Feb. 2009
You also said:
"I just don't think one party or the other makes a whole lot of difference in the market. Everything ebbs and flows from administration to administration. After about eight years the excesses of either party begins to take it's toll. It seems to me the huge debt that is being run up right now with no sort of fiscal responsibility brings in its own set of issues for investment. I worked in a different industry, but always found that when one party was in control all protection went to employer groups and hospitals, and eventually the squeeze would be so tight on doctors and customers and the next party would come in, fix some problems and create others...then the pendulum would swing the other way.
"I just don't trust a lot of the economic numbers coming out right now. And I think that as long as we pretend there is not a problem when everyone can clearly see there are problems, then nothing will get done. Capital gains are hurt as much by an extremely weak dollar as higher taxes, are they not?"
http://www.sowal.com/bb/showthread.php?t=9008&highlight=market+bottom+prediction
I never did stick my neck out and predict.
Beach Fanatic
Re: Calling the bottom!
I think the bottom is when you see a piece of property you really like at a price you can afford... Afford to hold and enjoy! The investment will happen with time.
I think the bottom is when you see a piece of property you really like at a price you can afford... Afford to hold and enjoy! The investment will happen with time.
Beach Fanatic
Re: Calling the bottom!
Right on...My friend from Atlanta is staying with me--he just read this thread--- and his comment was that too many people came down here and tried to win the lottery instead of just trying to enjoy a sacred and beautiful place.
Random PM Thought: Once the market stops looking at a second home at the beach as an "Investment" and begins to look at it as a place to get away to, then and only then will market stop it’s bleeding.
Right on...My friend from Atlanta is staying with me--he just read this thread--- and his comment was that too many people came down here and tried to win the lottery instead of just trying to enjoy a sacred and beautiful place.
Edited
Beach Lover
Re: Calling the bottom!
I see 2 more full points cut by July. This will put prime at 4% and you should be able to get home loans at a similar price. First time home buyers and mortgages for people with household income of less than 53K per year will be able to buy with little or no money down. Yes I know that affordable housing is not what SOWAL is known for but many of the people who own here make their living off of mortgage lending, construction, Real-estate sales, ect. You will be able to buy for what you can rent for if you stay in the 100k to 200k range. We are so blessed to have the Airport on the way because of its impact on the economy over the next 20 years. As far as a pricing bottom, many will be forced into selling on fear and desperation and that is heartbreaking to see, though some find joy in it. SOWAL is a amazing place and in time it will be discovered. I hear more and more of Hedge funds buying up REO?s controlled by Banks and people buying up foreclosures. Hopefully this summer will be the bottom but appreciation from the bottom will be a slow climb up.
00seer00
I see 2 more full points cut by July. This will put prime at 4% and you should be able to get home loans at a similar price. First time home buyers and mortgages for people with household income of less than 53K per year will be able to buy with little or no money down. Yes I know that affordable housing is not what SOWAL is known for but many of the people who own here make their living off of mortgage lending, construction, Real-estate sales, ect. You will be able to buy for what you can rent for if you stay in the 100k to 200k range. We are so blessed to have the Airport on the way because of its impact on the economy over the next 20 years. As far as a pricing bottom, many will be forced into selling on fear and desperation and that is heartbreaking to see, though some find joy in it. SOWAL is a amazing place and in time it will be discovered. I hear more and more of Hedge funds buying up REO?s controlled by Banks and people buying up foreclosures. Hopefully this summer will be the bottom but appreciation from the bottom will be a slow climb up.
00seer00
Beach Lover
Re: Calling the bottom!
just glad to hear the bottom is here!!! only one way to go now....well two if you count sideways. & i hope we do have a slow rise; we do not need the 2004-2005 mess ever, ever again! it was just unhealthy all the way around.
just glad to hear the bottom is here!!! only one way to go now....well two if you count sideways. & i hope we do have a slow rise; we do not need the 2004-2005 mess ever, ever again! it was just unhealthy all the way around.
Beach Fanatic
Re: Calling the bottom!
I predict in some areas we are going to go below real values. Once the mess gets cleaned up we will spike again in those areas. Just my opinion.
I predict in some areas we are going to go below real values. Once the mess gets cleaned up we will spike again in those areas. Just my opinion.
Beach Fanatic
Re: Calling the bottom!
Well, someone needs to tell Walton Co. tax appraisers office that cause I am still not happy my tax bills. You want see investors buying down there until you get a handle on the tax schedule. Taxes have decreased but its not enough. There use to be a time when you could pay cash for rental property, and make a decent return from rentals. "Not any more" thanks to high tax schedules and insurance. Until Walton County and the Florida legislature takes these two problems more seriously, its going to be an extremely slow climb up from the bottom if at all.
but appreciation from the bottom will be a slow climb up.
00seer00
Well, someone needs to tell Walton Co. tax appraisers office that cause I am still not happy my tax bills. You want see investors buying down there until you get a handle on the tax schedule. Taxes have decreased but its not enough. There use to be a time when you could pay cash for rental property, and make a decent return from rentals. "Not any more" thanks to high tax schedules and insurance. Until Walton County and the Florida legislature takes these two problems more seriously, its going to be an extremely slow climb up from the bottom if at all.
Beach Fanatic
Re: Calling the bottom!
You used to be much more bullish--what changed your opinion of the market?
Well, someone needs to tell Walton Co. tax appraisers office that cause I am still not happy my tax bills. You want see investors buying down there until you get a handle on the tax schedule. Taxes have decreased but its not enough. There use to be a time when you could pay cash for rental property, and make a decent return from rentals. "Not any more" thanks to high tax schedules and insurance. Until Walton County and the Florida legislature takes these two problems more seriously, its going to be an extremely slow climb up from the bottom if at all.
You used to be much more bullish--what changed your opinion of the market?
SoWal Insider
Re: Calling the bottom!
I'll bite....(you know how to chum the waters
)
Here is a thread from a year ago (Feb 2007) with some "upbeat" comments and, yes, talk of a "bottom." http://www.sowal.com/bb/showthread.php?t=11220&highlight=BOTTOM
We all know how 2007 turned out--so I ask you, what do you see that is different in this upcoming year as opposed to last year? The difference I see is there was no indication in early 2007 (for most people apparently--God knows I tried!) of the impending mortgage security meltdown; credit crunch; devaluation of the dollar; increasing unemployment; decreasing sales revenues; inflation and recession....:scratch: but then these issues going forward, in my estimation, would be a negative thing for real estate.
.
I'll bite....(you know how to chum the waters
)Here is a thread from a year ago (Feb 2007) with some "upbeat" comments and, yes, talk of a "bottom." http://www.sowal.com/bb/showthread.php?t=11220&highlight=BOTTOM
We all know how 2007 turned out--so I ask you, what do you see that is different in this upcoming year as opposed to last year? The difference I see is there was no indication in early 2007 (for most people apparently--God knows I tried!) of the impending mortgage security meltdown; credit crunch; devaluation of the dollar; increasing unemployment; decreasing sales revenues; inflation and recession....:scratch: but then these issues going forward, in my estimation, would be a negative thing for real estate.
.
Edited
Beach Fanatic
Re: Calling the bottom!
It seems sellers are slowly getting more realistic on prices. When the price gets right it will go under contract. There is always a buyer! The difference I see in 2008 versus 2007 is 2008 will be the clean up year. We are having sellers come to us to sell stuff no matter what the price is. A couple phone calls and the deal is done. Some sellers wants it off the books and do not care what it will take. Once this stuff is cleaned up, we may enter a normal market. I actually think we will go below the bottom and then have a small spike once folks realize we were at the bottom. Real estate is ever changing!
I have also noticed that some sellers are saying enough is enough and pulling from the market. They would rather not sell in this climate. Too many folks short selling or foreclosing to compete in this climate. We just have to go through this period.
It seems sellers are slowly getting more realistic on prices. When the price gets right it will go under contract. There is always a buyer! The difference I see in 2008 versus 2007 is 2008 will be the clean up year. We are having sellers come to us to sell stuff no matter what the price is. A couple phone calls and the deal is done. Some sellers wants it off the books and do not care what it will take. Once this stuff is cleaned up, we may enter a normal market. I actually think we will go below the bottom and then have a small spike once folks realize we were at the bottom. Real estate is ever changing!
I have also noticed that some sellers are saying enough is enough and pulling from the market. They would rather not sell in this climate. Too many folks short selling or foreclosing to compete in this climate. We just have to go through this period.
Beach Lover
Re: Calling the bottom!
Afford to hold and enjoy!bobby please forward that to the property appraiser's office
SoWal Insider
Re: Calling the bottom!
"Normal" as to when all the Baby Boomers and Saudis blow into town with U-Hauls loaded with cash looking to purchase anything at any price....or "normal" as in "real estate normal?"---(not that many people actually know what that means.)
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Once this stuff is cleaned up, we may enter a normal market.
"Normal" as to when all the Baby Boomers and Saudis blow into town with U-Hauls loaded with cash looking to purchase anything at any price....or "normal" as in "real estate normal?"---(not that many people actually know what that means.)
.
Beach Fanatic
Re: Calling the bottom!
Normal may have been a bad term. How about regular.
"The term regular can mean normal or obeying rules."
No mention of Baby boomers or Uhauls in that definition so I guess I mean Real estate Normal.
"Normal" as to when all the Baby Boomers and Saudis blow into town with U-Hauls loaded with cash looking to purchase anything at any price....or "normal" as in "real estate normal?"---(not that many people actually know what that means.)
.
Normal may have been a bad term. How about regular.
"The term regular can mean normal or obeying rules."
No mention of Baby boomers or Uhauls in that definition so I guess I mean Real estate Normal.
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