A cold week at the beach but had some great sunsets and lots of good food and drink.
Condo market is still in a word, dismal.
It was surreal. We have some buildings we like and the prices in several of them fell to new lows the week of our stay.
Worst story I heard (and there is no shortage of horror storys all down the strip). A fellow bought a couple of condos as an investment in 2004. He had made over $100,000 (on paper) by 2005 and thought he had found a sure fire way to make money. He bought 13 condos in 2005. He is of course hoplessly underwater and all 15 condos are on the market. I got all this from the realtor listing all his condos.
I looked at one he bought for $635,000 in 2005 and is now listed for $325,000. The last two sales in his building for the same unit were for $275,000. Ouch!
Unfortunately for PCB, there is still a large number of new condos in the pipline coming online later this year. They have got a HUGE inventory already.
JMHO,
Flyguy
Replies
35
SoWal Insider
A cold week at the beach but had some great sunsets and lots of good food and drink.
Condo market is still in a word, dismal.
It was surreal. We have some buildings we like and the prices in several of them fell to new lows the week of our stay.
Worst story I heard (and there is no shortage of horror storys all down the strip). A fellow bought a couple of condos as an investment in 2004. He had made over $100,000 (on paper) by 2005 and thought he had found a sure fire way to make money. He bought 13 condos in 2005. He is of course hoplessly underwater and all 15 condos are on the market. I got all this from the realtor listing all his condos.
I looked at one he bought for $635,000 in 2005 and is now listed for $325,000. The last two sales in his building for the same unit were for $275,000. Ouch!
Unfortunately for PCB, there is still a large number of new condos in the pipline coming online later this year. They have got a HUGE inventory already.
JMHO,
Flyguy
Is this guy paying mortgages, taxes, insurance & condo fees on all 15 condos?
Surely his "on paper $100,000 profit" vaporized about 2 years ago.
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SoWal Expert
other PCB updates, Pier Park is moving along quickly. The County Pier, located to Pier Park's south, has been ordered removed, by the DEP, and a new one will be built in its place. FEMA is picking up most of the tab, $7+million, and the new pier is expected to open in Spring '09.
SoWal Insider
Flyguy why PCB? That market IMHO is entirely different from SoWal.
Beach Fanatic
Flyguy why PCB? That market IMHO is entirely different from SoWal.
But too close to ignore.
SoWal Insider
But too close to ignore.
Very true. I wouldn't say there is no correlation. But PCB is like many coastal areas all over Florida; SoWal is not.
SoWal Insider
Flyguy why PCB? That market IMHO is entirely different from SoWal.
From a pure "investment" standpoint, once those PCB condos start hitting the markets at 40-cents and lower on the dollar, I think they'll provide a better return than anything on 30A.
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SoWal Insider
From a pure "investment" standpoint, once those PCB condos start hitting the markets at 40-cents and lower on the dollar, I think they'll provide a better return than anything on 30A.
Possibly ... if you are just about investment. But don't you also think that it's going to take longer for things to shake out in PCB, simply because of the masive inventory?
SoWal Insider
Possibly ... if you are just about investment. But don't you also think that it's going to take longer for things to shake out in PCB, simply because of the masive inventory?
Oh yeah, it's gonna take at least a couple of years. Now is NOT the time to buy.
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SWGB
Oh yeah, it's gonna take at least a couple of years. Now is NOT the time to buy.
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Amen to that, I know there is another thread for it, but the bottom is no where near.
Admin
It will be interesting to see the rental numbers crunched for a low end purchase, assuming a lowest case rent because of all the competition.
Beach LoverAuthor
Shelly, Yes he is paying all the carrying costs on the condos. He apparently has too many other assets to walk away from these. But all of his condos are listed as "short sales".
ToofarTampa, I think PCB will be the best buy for what I want. Full frontal gulf front for use in Sep/Oct and Apr/May. Rent in the summer. I know the SoWal crowd mostly has a different opinion but I like PCB. Always have.
SmilingJoe, You are correct in that it is never as bad as you think or as good as you think. There are always pluses and minuses.
JMHO,
Flyguy
ToofarTampa, I think PCB will be the best buy for what I want. Full frontal gulf front for use in Sep/Oct and Apr/May. Rent in the summer. I know the SoWal crowd mostly has a different opinion but I like PCB. Always have.
SmilingJoe, You are correct in that it is never as bad as you think or as good as you think. There are always pluses and minuses.
JMHO,
Flyguy
SoWal Insider
Shelly, Yes he is paying all the carrying costs on the condos. He apparently has too many other assets to walk away from these. But all of his condos are listed as "short sales".
ToofarTampa, I think PCB will be the best buy for what I want. Full frontal gulf front for use in Sep/Oct and Apr/May. Rent in the summer. I know the SoWal crowd mostly has a different opinion but I like PCB. Always have.
SmilingJoe, You are correct in that it is never as bad as you think or as good as you think. There are always pluses and minuses.
JMHO,
Flyguy
I wasn't trying to slam PCB, I just was thinking that SoWal will probably stabilize before PCB does. And since SoWal hasn't yet, I would agree with SHELLY that now is NOT the time, unless you find one of those aforementioned properties at 40 cents on the dollar. Good luck!
SoWal Expert
Now the PCB condo market is one thing, but do you guys really see prices of detached homes in SoWal, on average, coming down in price, 60% off the highs of 2005? If they did, I'd be buying a new house, but I'm not holding my breath on that one.
Beach Fanatic
Oh yeah, it's gonna take at least a couple of years. Now is NOT the time to buy.
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August 2006 was the time to buy.
SoWal Insider
Now the PCB condo market is one thing, but do you guys really see prices of detached homes in SoWal, on average, coming down in price, 60% off the highs of 2005? If they did, I'd be buying a new house, but I'm not holding my breath on that one.
No.
Beach Lover
a couple of comments...
1. i dont get piers...from p'cola and we have one...whats the point really...fishing? its really just a large obstruction in an otherwise beautiful body of water. i guess people like to walk on them...worthless...just my opinion.
2. opinion: i think the best area to buy is the west end of pcb before u get to 30A so the area south of wild heron and south of 98. it is a beautiful beach there and u are sandwhiched btw 30A and PCB. some decent houses trading pretty cheap...not saying now is the time to buy, i think there is more pain to come and there is no fear of housing prices increasing. but if you had a gun to my head and forced me to buy in the area thats where i would set my sights.
have a good weekend everyone
1. i dont get piers...from p'cola and we have one...whats the point really...fishing? its really just a large obstruction in an otherwise beautiful body of water. i guess people like to walk on them...worthless...just my opinion.
2. opinion: i think the best area to buy is the west end of pcb before u get to 30A so the area south of wild heron and south of 98. it is a beautiful beach there and u are sandwhiched btw 30A and PCB. some decent houses trading pretty cheap...not saying now is the time to buy, i think there is more pain to come and there is no fear of housing prices increasing. but if you had a gun to my head and forced me to buy in the area thats where i would set my sights.
have a good weekend everyone
Beach Lover
Too Far,
Why would you possibly think sowal is immune from what's going on in other coastal areas? There will always be a market for ultra high end (Rosemary, Seaside, Alys, Watercolor, etc) but the rest is fair game.
Why would you possibly think sowal is immune from what's going on in other coastal areas? There will always be a market for ultra high end (Rosemary, Seaside, Alys, Watercolor, etc) but the rest is fair game.
Beach Fanatic
1. i dont get piers...from p'cola and we have one...whats the point really...fishing? its really just a large obstruction in an otherwise beautiful body of water. i guess people like to walk on them...worthless...just my opinion.
You got it, fishing. Not everyone has a boat, and they are great places to catch ling, kings and sharks. I grew up fishing the piers in SC, so to me they are not worthless. I guess you can walk on them, too.
Beach Fanatic
Now the PCB condo market is one thing, but do you guys really see prices of detached homes in SoWal, on average, coming down in price, 60% off the highs of 2005? If they did, I'd be buying a new house, but I'm not holding my breath on that one.
Prices of existing homes in prime locations, no, but I can see some of the bigger property albatrosses having fire sales on lot inventories, or selling out to the McBuilders and offering some very attractive prices on what are essentially tract or semi-custom homes.
In the past, Adams has bought and completed the single family build-out in relatively nice developments like Seascape, Emerald Lakes, and Maravilla. From what I remember, their part of the Emerald Lakes development had homes that were at least 30% cheaper than the truly custom part of that development.
SoWal Expert
For that pier in PCB, it will be a big attraction to some of the people shopping at Pier Park. I have been on that pier once, last summer, and I thought it offered good views of the condos next to it. lol.
SoWal Expert
Prices of existing homes in prime locations, no, but I can see some of the bigger property albatrosses having fire sales on lot inventories, or selling out to the McBuilders and offering some very attractive prices on what are essentially tract or semi-custom homes.But a $400,000 condo is a different thing than a $700,000 condo. (thinking about the Village at Redfish, which originally went for around $1,000,000.)
In the past, Adams has bought and completed the single family build-out in relatively nice developments like Seascape, Emerald Lakes, and Maravilla. From what I remember, their part of the Emerald Lakes development had homes that were at least 30% cheaper than the truly custom part of that development.
SoWal Insider
Too Far,
Why would you possibly think sowal is immune from what's going on in other coastal areas? There will always be a market for ultra high end (Rosemary, Seaside, Alys, Watercolor, etc) but the rest is fair game.
I never said immune. Not even close. I didn't say it was stable, either, nor did I say that it would be stabilizing next week or this coming rental season. But PCB is absolutely under more pressure than SoWal. SoWal is generally considered more desirable (though not to everyone, obviously) and has less inventory, more single family homes and fewer condos, plus more factors in its favor that will make it an excellent investment 10 years from now. When exactly to make that investment is up in the air. This is JMO as a lifelong Florida resident (okay, except for three years in California). I am not a real estate agent or a seller.
Beach Fanatic
But a $400,000 condo is a different thing than a $700,000 condo. (thinking about the Village at Redfish, which originally went for around $1,000,000.)
It definitely is, but there are far more potential buyers at a lower price point. The $175K homes in Emerald Lakes weren't nearly as nice as the $275K homes built earlier there. But they sold far, far quicker than the expensive homes there did, even though they were in all honesty buck-ugly.
Edited
SoWal Insider
August 2006 was the time to buy.
Only if your commission depended on it.
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SoWal Insider
Shelly, Yes he is paying all the carrying costs on the condos. He apparently has too many other assets to walk away from these. But all of his condos are listed as "short sales".
Since you've been crunching the condo numbers for PCB....
So..all inclusive (PITI + condo fees + mi$c costs) what do you reckon this guy is paying out per month to hold on to these 15 condos?
His net worth has gotta be circling the bowl daily.
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