Article in Barrons

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Sorry. Its worth going to the library to read or to Ceruleans and just cop a free look at the article while sipping a glass of their over priced wine.

Sorry. Its worth going to the library to read or to Ceruleans and just cop a free look at the article while sipping a glass of their over priced wine.

...I thought that said..."cop a feel".

you have to be a subscriber to read the whole article

Here ya go:

MONDAY, APRIL 21, 2008

In the Eye of the Housing Hurricane
By MIKE MORGAN | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR


HERE'S A LESSON MANY FLORIDIANS HAVE LEARNED THE HARD WAY: All hurricanes have three parts -- the front half, the eye and the back half. The eye is a deceiving quiet period at the center of the hurricane. The eye lulls you into believing the storm has passed and all is well.

In fact, the back half of a hurricane can be far more devastating than the front half. The front half of a hurricane does a lot of damage and weakens many structures. Then, when the back half hits, houses, buildings and personal property teetering on the brink of failure are utterly destroyed. Moreover, since the wind is coming from the opposite direction, anything strong enough to resist the first half is tested again by the back half.

THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT'S HAPPENING IN FLORIDA'S housing and financial markets. We are in the eye of the hurricane, and the back half will hit us twice as hard as the front.

The front half of the Florida real-estate hurricane was fed by a bidding frenzy that drove prices to a peak far above real demand: Flippers were not buying homes for function, just for trading. And with the Fed's free-money policy, flippers were leveraging themselves at the same 30-to-1 and 50-to-1 levels as the financial wizards on Wall Street.

This artificial demand created an inflated supply of homes. By 2006, the inventory of unsold real estate reached a crisis level ("Florida's Housing Hurricane," Other Voices, Oct. 2, 2006). The combination of rising inventory and prices, which had no relation to demand for housing that people wanted to live in, fed the front side of the hurricane.

Recently, however, there has been a lull in the windstorm. Would-be buyers are returning to the market. Over the past few weeks, we've been seeing 300% increases in traffic at our open houses from a year ago. Builders and real-estate agents report that offers are up, along with traffic.

But this is not the end of the hurricane; it's still the eye. What the builders and agents neglect to report is that most of the traffic couldn't qualify to buy a moped. Nor do they report rising rates of pending contracts that fail to close. And they don't mention the damage being done by falling prices, which put more and more homeowners into negative-equity positions and make it more likely that more property gets pushed back to the lenders.

Nor do the builders dare to mention the bulk sales of inventory homes they are making to a new generation of giddy flippers with deeper pockets. This nonsense not only forces prices down further; it also creates a new competitor for the builders' remaining inventories. The bulk buyers still have to sell these homes to end-users.

This twist is not all that new, but it is continuing to feed the overall problem of inventory glut. However, this is not what we should be focusing on as we enter the back half of this hurricane.

Almost nobody is reporting on how the inventory problem of 2006 has moved from builders to lenders, and how the lenders have no clue about what to do with the surge of defaults and foreclosures.

The reason the back half of the hurricane will be such a devastating wipeout: The failure of the lenders to address their issues with defaults is compounding the inventory problem to the point where we will see a tidal wave of inventory hit the market.

As a real-estate broker in Florida, I have first-hand experience with homeowners defaulting on mortgages and lenders who appear to be far too confused to develop a clear plan for avoiding foreclosure auctions.

Buyers now realize lenders are going to take weeks or months to review and respond to offers that often reflect market value but fall short of covering the balance on the mortgage. Such "short sales" should be the easiest way for lenders to move inventory at market prices -- but the lenders have not faced reality. And now, most buyers who have had experience with short sales no longer want to look at short-sale properties because of the long and convoluted process. Instead of using this tool to realize market values, the lenders are dumping property into below-market foreclosure auctions, which then creates another new downward spiral for prices.

Lenders' failure to address these issues has forced more defaults, which lead to skyrocketing foreclosure rates. Defaults and foreclosures mean huge expenses for the lender, and significantly lower values. And it gets worse for lenders. In the most extreme examples, lenders cannot foreclose because the documents have not followed the mortgage.

Lenders may be telling Wall Street and Capitol Hill that they are developing plans to keep owners in their homes, but we are seeing the exact opposite in the world of reality. Even when we try to work with lenders, most of the time there is no one at the helm with the authority to process a cup of coffee, let alone the sale of a property in default. The easy answer is to simply let the property flow through to the foreclosure auction, even when that means 30% to 50% less in sale price.

Commercial and retail property are also becoming casualties in the back half of the hurricane. Drive through just about any Florida market to see all the For Lease signs on commercial property. Real-estate agents, lawyers, builders, contractors, mortgage brokers, insurance companies, furniture stores and all the rest are going out of business and leaving a flood of office and commercial inventory vacant.

The condo market? Do you really want to hear anything about the devastation that the lenders and local municipalities are facing over the collapse of the condo market? That's like adding a Class 5 tornado to the Category 5 hurricane over Florida.

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<Hey....it's a soft landing.>


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Interesting analogy but the Barron's writer seems unaware of the housing and financial mess of the entire good ole USA! I know of some states suffering as bad or worse than Florida and they've never seen a hurricane...

Interesting analogy but the Barron's writer seems unaware of the housing and financial mess of the entire good ole USA! I know of some states suffering as bad or worse than Florida and they've never seen a hurricane...

I've read more than a few articles about how the "housing crisis" in playing out in locations throughout of the USA and almost always they say, "Yeah, housing sales may suck here in Anytown, USA, but at least they don't blow like they do in Florida."

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so when do the bank auctions begin?

The article does make some sense, and I don't believe the worst is necessarily over, but this guy is a real estate broker, not an economist, so does he really have the expertise to comment on the banking industry?

I think at least half of it is hyperbole meant to fit his clever analogy. And of course it is based on his perspective as a realtor who has probably seen his fair share of flack for "causing the real estate crisis." So he's pointing the finger at the lenders -- which is justified, but it also comes across as a little shrill, given what he does for a living.

Edit to say that I do agree with the author that vacant commercial space is indicative of a larger and growing problem. I talk with business owners every week, and rents are so high (due to speculation) that many can't stay in business, can't start a business, have to move, etc.

Edit to say that I do agree with the author that vacant commercial space is indicative of a larger and growing problem. I talk with business owners every week, and rents are so high (due to speculation) that many can't stay in business, can't start a business, have to move, etc.

...just wait until we're hip-deep in this recession--nail salons and specialty coffee shops will qualify for the endangered species list.

The article does make some sense, and I don't believe the worst is necessarily over, but this guy is a real estate broker, not an economist, so does he really have the expertise to comment on the banking industry?

One doesn't have to be Greenspan or Citigroup's former CEO Chuck Prince to know that the banking industry is in the toilet....as a matter of fact, if either of these gentlemen had a clue as to how bad it really was, they certainly didn't mention it to the public.
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...just wait until we're hip-deep in this recession--nail salons and specialty coffee shops will qualify for the endangered species list.

If salons, med spas, plastic surgery centers and weight loss centers start to suffer in my neck of the woods ... then I will know that we are really in trouble. But! They are still opening, at least for now!

One local salon signed a hefty lease a year ago, and has been losing top stylists one by one. That guy way overshot and may end up being the canary in the coal mine. So far, he's still in business though.

If salons, med spas, plastic surgery centers and weight loss centers start to suffer in my neck of the woods ... then I will know that we are really in trouble. But! They are still opening, at least for now!

One local salon signed a hefty lease a year ago, and has been losing top stylists one by one. That guy way overshot and may end up being the canary in the coal mine. So far, he's still in business though.

Noone was into having hair and nails done more than Realtors...nuff said.


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I've read more than a few articles about how the "housing crisis" in playing out in locations throughout of the USA and almost always they say, "Yeah, housing sales may suck here in Anytown, USA, but at least they don't blow like they do in Florida."

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You are right Shelly they almost always say "that" but as Erma said years ago, the grass is always greener over the septic tank... Michigan, for example, would trade with FL in a heart beat I think.

My parents in Michigan figure their house is worth less now than it was in 1995.

You are right Shelly they almost always say "that" but as Erma said years ago, the grass is always greener over the septic tank... Michigan, for example, would trade with FL in a heart beat I think.

Here's a come-on for Michigan RE last year:

Q. Why is it a good time to buy in West Michigan?

? Mortgage rates are near historic lows
? Home prices are the lowest in several years
? More homes to choose from then ever before
? West Michigan is a great place to live and invest in real estate

All these factors, and more, indicate now is a good time to buy in West Michigan.

Q. Will the recent "boom" cycle cause any lingering concerns among potential buyers hoping to "time" the market turn and wait for the low point to be reached?

A. The 2003-2005 real estate cycle was so short and intense, many buyers have taken a "wait and see" attitude in 2006. But now, in 2007, with the return to normalcy, buyers should recognize there could be a missed opportunity if they don't act now. Trying to "time" a real estate market is a difficult task of prognostication, and one at which few people succeed. But becoming educated on the long term realities of the overall market, and the West Michigan market in particular, should alleviate most concerns.

West Michigan is a popular location for both retirees and younger families, for many reasons. We offer an unsurpassed coastal environment, rich cultural heritage and amenities, numerous recreational offerings (golf, boating, biking, fishing, etc.), great shopping, a strong business community, a tremendous educational system, and much, much more. The local real estate community is sold on West Michigan. We have invested our dollars in local real estate. We believe in our community, and want to share it with others. The incredible variety of quality homes and condominiums available in the current market gives potential buyers the perfect opportunity to grab their dream home now.

http://www.time2buyhomes.com/faq.html
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Does the NAR provide a "fill-in-the-blanks" ad for their Realtors?--seems like I've read this all before, only the location has been changed (Phoenix, Las Vegas, Myrtle Beach, Florida, etc.).

So, was 2007 a "missed opportunity" for buyers in Michigan?

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West Michigan is the part of the state that looks like it's actually got something of a future- lots of new technology, education and health research projects going on. And I'd trade summers on Lake Michigan for summers in North Florida any time- wide sandy beaches and a more pleasant weather set-up. (It's just the seven months of annual slush and wet stockings that's a deal-breaker for us. )

It's also the place where the local homebuilder's association has their headquarters for sale because they overbuilt in 2004, and are now looking at a significant decrease in membership rolls (and dues)

West Michigan is the part of the state that looks like it's actually got something of a future- lots of new technology, education and health research projects going on. And I'd trade summers on Lake Michigan for summers in North Florida any time- wide sandy beaches and a more pleasant weather set-up. (It's just the seven months of annual slush and wet stockings that's a deal-breaker for us. )

It's also the place where the local homebuilder's association has their headquarters for sale because they overbuilt in 2004, and are now looking at a significant decrease in membership rolls (and dues)

So...in other words, now is a great time to buy?


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Along those same lines, I came across this article from January 2006 while googling the other day.

http://www.legendaryinc.com/Outlook%2006%20Release%201.24.06.pdf

I especially like the quote from real estate "expert" Barbara Corcoran, who is a regular "consultant" on the Today Show.

The morning concluded with real estate expert, television personality and accomplished author, Barbara Corcoran. Barbara, who is seen regularly on The View, Good Morning America and Fox News, shared her insights as to the fundamental growth of the real estate market based on the principles of the current economy, demographic trends and America?s love affair with real estate. Barbara spoke to the real estate bubble and referred to it as fictitious, stating that ?you?re the one person that can control your own market.?

Go back and read what some of the so-called experts have predicted. When you find the one who hit the nail on the head, please let us know, so we know who to give credence to next time around.

Go back and read what some of the so-called experts have predicted. When you find the one who hit the nail on the head, please let us know, so we know who to give credence to next time around.

I can think of two:

1) Shawn Tully, Fortune editor
2) SHELLY

Shelly, I'm calling the Today Show to get you a gig. Don't worry, my commission will be very reasonable.

Something like this?

Q. Why is it a good time to buy in city/region name?

• Mortgage rates are near historic lows
• Home prices are the lowest in several years
• More homes to choose from then ever before
• city/region name is a great place to live and invest in real estate

All these factors, and more, indicate now is a good time to buy in city/region name.

Q. Will the recent "boom" cycle cause any lingering concerns among potential buyers hoping to "time" the market turn and wait for the low point to be reached?

A. The 2003-2005 real estate cycle was so short and intense, many buyers have taken a "wait and see" attitude in 2006. But now, in 2007, with the return to normalcy, buyers should recognize there could be a missed opportunity if they don't act now. Trying to "time" a real estate market is a difficult task of prognostication, and one at which few people succeed. But becoming educated on the long term realities of the overall market, and the city/region name market in particular, should alleviate most concerns.

city/region name is a popular location for both retirees and younger families, for many reasons. We offer an unsurpassed coastal environment, rich cultural heritage and amenities, numerous recreational offerings (golf, boating, biking, fishing, etc.), great shopping, a strong business community, a tremendous educational system, and much, much more. The local real estate community is sold on city/region name. We have invested our dollars in local real estate. We believe in our community, and want to share it with others. The incredible variety of quality homes and condominiums available in the current market gives potential buyers the perfect opportunity to grab their dream home now.

Go back and read what some of the so-called experts have predicted. When you find the one who hit the nail on the head, please let us know, so we know who to give credence to next time around.

....Here's 5 who hit the nail on the head:

1. Yale University Economist, Robert Shiller

2. Senior Economist at UCLA's Anderson School of Management, Chris Thornberg

3. Professor of Economics at the Stern School of Business at NYU, Nouriel Roubini

4. President of EuroPacific Capital, Peter Schiff

5. 'The Housing Bubble' Blogmeister, Ben Jones

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....Here's 5 who hit the nail on the head:

1. Yale University Economist, Robert Shiller

2. Senior Economist at UCLA's Anderson School of Management, Chris Thornberg

3. Professor of Economics at the Stern School of Business at NYU, Nouriel Roubini

4. President of EuroPacific Capital, Peter Schiff

5. 'The Housing Bubble' Blogmeister, Ben Jones

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6. Oppenheimer & Co's, Meredith Whitney

Here's a timely confection about the Michigan Jobs/Housing/Economy from none other than NAR's Chief Economist Larry "Buy Now" Yun...prepare to be amazed

YouTube - Lawrence Yun speaks on Michigan job and housing markets


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....Here's 5 who hit the nail on the head:

1. Yale University Economist, Robert Shiller

2. Senior Economist at UCLA's Anderson School of Management, Chris Thornberg

3. Professor of Economics at the Stern School of Business at NYU, Nouriel Roubini

4. President of EuroPacific Capital, Peter Schiff

5. 'The Housing Bubble' Blogmeister, Ben Jones

6. Oppenheimer & Co's, Meredith Whitney

Thank you. Now I know who to subscribe to.

Here's a timely confection about the Michigan Jobs/Housing/Economy from none other than NAR's Chief Economist Larry "Buy Now" Yun...prepare to be amazed

Um, is there room on your blankie for a fourth "talking head?"

Um, is there room on your blankie for a fourth "talking head?"

When it comes to this NAR hack, he's more than just a "talking head," although you are about 50% right.

Here is an excerpt from that speech about Michigan:

YUN: "With the falling inventory currently, if you have some perspective buyers...I think, you feel it in your gut...you feel it in your gut....that they are buying at a low point; so that within 2 years time, they will be gaining this huge housing equity and you will have been part of that process of helping people accumulate wealth."

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He went on to quote Warren Buffet's famous axiom, which in part states, "When everyone is greedy--be scared." Judging from this dolt's comment, folks should still be scared--very scared.


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