My Iron Man Uniform

Based on what I am hearing/witnessing we may be at or close to bottom, but still a long way from improvement/heading back up.

It is getting cleared out, but there are still a lot of folks w/ monetary and foreclosure issues that are being compounded by tighter lending restrictions.

Based on what I am hearing/witnessing we may be at or close to bottom, but still a long way from improvement/heading back up.

It is getting cleared out, but there are still a lot of folks w/ monetary and foreclosure issues that are being compounded by tighter lending restrictions.

This is the part that makes me think we still have a long way to go.

This is the part that makes me think we still have a long way to go.

Agreed...90% of the reason we got into this mess was due to lenders easing their criteria for loans, zero down loans, ARM's to people who had no business getting loans in the first place...the list goes on. People may be buying or may be close to buying again, but it will be at a slower pace IMHO....

Joe,
You will get no tomatoes from me. I will just bask in the knowledge that someone I respect as a "smarter than the average bear" realtor has predicted the bottom! Now, can you sell my 30A real estate??? LOL! Thanks for your prediction. I willl keep my fingers crossed.

hmmm...smart realtor? Can't spell tomatoes. Or is it potatoes? Where's Quail when you need him.

It's all about price, Suma. Overpriced properties will still be reducing. There are deals out there and the short sales will soon be selling or foreclosed and consequently relisted as REO at attractive prices.

Joe-The bottom is here only when Shelly proclaims it and he/she is still talking Ramen, not a rebound

hmmm...smart realtor? Can't spell tomatoes. Or is it potatoes? Where's Quail when you need him.

Oh. I thought you were going to say smart realtor is an oxymoron. But I suppose if you get right down to it, any realtor who is still making a living at it must have something going on...

Oh. I thought you were going to say smart realtor is an oxymoron. But I suppose if you get right down to it, any realtor who is still making a living at it must have something going on...

Level 17 on the MLM pyramid

Ok, I have donned my kevlar jacket. I have my new full face modern catcher's mask on. I'm ready to deflect flying tomatos with ninja-like quickness. Here goes nothing:

"We've found bottom!"

My latest Market Pulse shows a very slight gain in inventory while the number of short sales has leveled off. I'm sticking to my theory that the short sale ratio to all active listings is the key to finding the proverbial bottom.

And I don't seem to be alone in my findings, check this WSJ article -

"The Housing Crisis is Over"

To paraphrase-

"How can this be? For starters, a bottom does not mean that prices are about to return to the heady days of 2005. That probably won't happen for another 15 years. It just means that the trend is no longer getting worse, which is the critical factor."

Woo Hoo!!!!!

So you feel sold prices won't drop anymore? I'd have to wager you a shrimp Po-Boy you are way off. There is far too much inventory. It's simple supply and demand.

I don't seem to be alone in my findings, check this WSJ article -

"The Housing Crisis is Over"

To paraphrase-

"How can this be? For starters, a bottom does not mean that prices are about to return to the heady days of 2005. That probably won't happen for another 15 years. It just means that the trend is no longer getting worse, which is the critical factor."

Woo Hoo!!!!!

(1) This fairytale, written by a hedgie, appears in the "Opinion" section on A-23 (which is to say that you're still pretty much alone as far as the WSJ goes).

(2) If prices aren't to return to the "Heady 2005" levels for 15 years--what's that say to the bazillion investulators who plunked down $500K - $2M for their 1000sf Florida condo boxes in 2005 and are now trying to dump them? I doubt they'll be willing/able to continue feeding the beast for the next 15 years to "break even" (which will be impossible seeing that they have to pay out a sizeable chunk of cash to carry them month, after month, after month, after month).

(3) Your attempt to get me to toss high-priced produce your way in this recessionary period isn't gonna work.


.

If it stays level for a while then falls in a steepening decline over 6 months, ok. IMHO, you're jumping the gun on this one. Two equal months of short sales in a slow market at peak season indicate much to nothing. Short sales come from people who feel the heat but haven't felt the fire. Owners had their hopes invested in the spring selling season (which was flat) so they held off hoping. Lets see where the short sales stats go over the next few months, my bet is they'll head upward. Foreclosure rates over the last few months might be interesting to look at as well, those folks didn't have the choice of waiting. I see those climbing.

I'm also interested in sales vs. inventory trends over the last five months. Walton County shows flat sales for the last two months, and the MLS shows massive increases in inventory in the areas I'm watching over the same period. That doesn't spell a bottom to me. Plus we still have the lingering subprimers who aren't out of the picture yet, the alt-a resets starting next year, the economy, steadily increasing rates on 30 year fixed loans, shadow inventory we can't see, the climbing national foreclosure rate, bank failures on the horizon, etc. etc..

All of these factors affect people who buy here. My take is this isn't a local market, we are driven by other markets like Atlanta (dismal), Texas (heading into decline), Alabama (dismal), Southern Florida (cratering), Mississippi (down), Ohio, Indiana, Virginia (all in decline), New Jersey (steep declines just starting), and on and on and on. It aint pretty out there for people interested in property down here that's for sure and my guess is it wont get any better for quite some time.

30ashopper-
Watching the short sales is key. There are alot under contract. If they close then great. If they don't then foreclosure is inevitable. Foreclosures on the rise is fine, they are taking out the short sales and determining market value. The REOs are usually priced at or just below market for quick sales which is also good. It is up to the realtors to sell off the short sales and foreclosures to turn it around...

Shelly- not even one 'mator and a head of lettuce?

Shelly- not even one 'mator and a head of lettuce?

Not a chance! The economic problems we're encountering is just the tip of the iceburg <rimshot>.

I was sitting here thinking about where the bottom is.... Then, I wonder what does that really mean? I think we will be at the bottom when we stop talking about the bottom.

I was sitting here thinking about where the bottom is.....

The bottom is down there <pointing down>.

.

The bottom is down there <pointing down>.

.

Yep, last I looked my bottom was still there, albeit saggier.

As seen on WJHG last week......

The American dream is becoming a nightmare for millions of Americans who are losing their homes to foreclosure. 161 Bay Contains lost their homes last month, an all time high. The Walton County numbers are even more staggering.

Many families feel the pressure every month when the bills start rolling in. For millions of Americans the financial struggles start because they can't afford their homes and it's causing many families to have to face foreclose.

William Howell is a lawyer in Santa Rosa Beach. Recently he's seen an increase in foreclosure cases and says almost 75 percent of his work load proves it.

William S. Howell, Jr., attorney at law, said, "Most of the people that own property now owned it for three or four years. My guess is quite of few of them were buying with the intention of holding for a year and flipping the condo or the lots. They've been holding for almost three years now and they're running out of money."

Newschannel 7 called officials in Walton County to see how the numbers had changed over the years. Here's what we found out. From 2005 to 2007 the number of foreclosed homes had increased more than four times the original number; 171 one foreclosed homes in 2005 compared to 721 foreclosures in 2007.

Through April, Walton County has already seen 509 foreclosures and if everything stays the way it is by the end of this year you could see over 1,500 foreclosed homes just in Walton County.

"I've talked with people from time to time that have drawn all their IRA accounts down, they've borrowed money, run up credit cards and many are just throwing up their hands and giving up and realizing they've done all they can do. "

Howell says if you find yourself in this situation there are things you should consider before you face foreclosure.

"I would suggest for people who are totally out of funds and still holding these types of properties need to talk to an attorney that handles bankruptcy. Bankruptcy attorneys can give you some good advice and help you plan a little bit."

About 1/4 of the homes foreclosed this year in Walton County were condo properties

How many home sales are there each year

Does anyone know how many lots sold in 2005,2006 and 2007 South of the bay? Does anyone know how many homes sold in 2005, 2006 and 2007 South of the bay? How many foreclosures have been filed this year? Thanks

I only track single family sales. No idea on condos or lots.





This is shaping up to be the lowest year for single family home sales since 98. If the correction is only about half way through as people are saying, the numbers could be even worse by the end of the year.

Note April sales in these graphs are not accurate as Walton County records aren't up to date yet.

Home Sales vs. Foreclosures

Thanks for the data. Does this mean that banks are foreclosing faster than homes are selling or did I miss something? Are the foreclosure numbers that were previously posted predominantly homes or do they include condo's and lots? Thanks again for your data.

Foreclosures are occuring on everything.

You can see an active list on Walton County's site here -

http://clerkofcourts.co.walton.fl.us/default.aspx?id=31

They seem to be average about 4 or 5 a day or so. I wish I had stats on Walton County overall but I don't. There's a good site out there (foreclosures.com) that'll list them for free. Joe was saying he felt there were fewer short sales in the mls, so maybe that's an indication of an improving situation. Hard to say at this point.

"Does this mean that banks are foreclosing faster than homes are selling or did I miss something?"

Inventory is definitely way up, exactly how much I can't say, maybe someone with access to the MLS can pluck out some data and post it for the last 6 months or so. I'd be curious to know if it's rising or falling as well. In the neighborhoods I'm tracking, it's definitely rising but it might not be for the whole county, not sure.