Price Drops and Inventory

i haven't seen a net increase of inventory during the last few months. In what area are you looking and what type of property?

The areas I'm tracking closely are Watercolor, Watersound Beach, Seacrest Beach, and some parts of Sandestin, and Blue Mountain. Generally I'm looking at everything but these seemed like good areas to really get into and watch. Seacrest Beach was the most notable with what seemed like a flush of new listings in the last couple months. Of course, it's possible the listings were out there all along and I'm just finding them now, not sure.

One possibility is that the glut of backed up foreclosures is finally landing in the market. Here's a scary graph -



Final foreclosure judgments seem to be follow the same trend.

Where did you get the graph and what segment does it cover for what area?

Is that graph just Walton County?

Yeah, it's based on the public records, I just punched in the dates, month by month and plucked out the total number of "Lis Pendens" filings. Joefromseagrove gave me the idea of tracking these in a different post.

Where did you get the graph and what segment does it cover for what area?

Walton County overall. I'd like to break it down by lot vs. home when I get a chance. There seem to be a lot of lot foreclosures going on right now.

I think the influx of inventory may stem from sellers hearing that property is selling. I am getting many calls from sellers to list but will not touch it unless it is priced right. I am still amazed at how fast the foreclosures and short sales are leaving this market (unless countrywide). The past two contracts I have put together have back ups on them. A client asked me yesterday about all the inventory and I said there really is not allot on the market that is truly priced to sell. The trick is to know what is priced right. This way you don't have to waste your time looking.

Yeah, it's based on the public records, I just punched in the dates, month by month and plucked out the total number of "Lis Pendens" filings. Joefromseagrove gave me the idea of tracking these in a different post.

I think that you might be getting a double count if you're tracking this way. I believe the county files will show records for each party. It could actually be more than a double count if there are more than two parties involved.

I think that you might be getting a double count if you're tracking this way. I believe the county files will show records for each party. It could actually be more than a double count if there are more than two parties involved.

Hmm, don't think so by just looking at it. I don't see dupes in addresses at all. In fact, I hate to be the harbinger of bad news, but I actually think it's an undercount. Banks are placing multiple properties of individual owners into single filings.

"A client asked me yesterday about all the inventory and I said there really is not allot on the market that is truly priced to sell."

Man is that ever the truth. People underwater are listing at 2005-2006 levels, in some cases looking for a profit. It's crazy, I guess they don't watch CNN.

The areas I'm tracking closely are Watercolor, Watersound Beach, Seacrest Beach, and some parts of Sandestin, and Blue Mountain. Generally I'm looking at everything but these seemed like good areas to really get into and watch. Seacrest Beach was the most notable with what seemed like a flush of new listings in the last couple months. Of course, it's possible the listings were out there all along and I'm just finding them now, not sure.

How are you tracking these areas? Are you actually following these areas or just eyeing what's available every once in a while? Sorry, was just a little confused by the last part.

240 Properties in Pre-Foreclosure starting at the $1.3M range--who said "upscale" properties were immune from a correction?

http://www.realtytrac.com/MapSearch/MapSearch/MapSearch.aspx?selCounties=FLWL&accnt=9999#search


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Somebody call the bottom again so the blood shed will stop.

How are you tracking these areas? Are you actually following these areas or just eyeing what's available every once in a while? Sorry, was just a little confused by the last part.

A couple areas I'm tracking carerfully in a set of spreadsheets - listings, sales, ppsf, shorts, foreclosures, whatever I can find. Those are areas I'm really zoomed in on. Other areas where I feel prices are never going to get low enough to consider them a good investment area (for me personally) I just watch for deals, like WaterSound / Seaside for example which are fun to look at but I'm not planning on blowing 1 mil on a beach house any time soon. (nor could I afford it)

Wow...went on the site and searched....very depressing.

I think you will continue to see more inventory coming online that is in the short sale/pre-foreclosure category. I find this way of selling property to be terribly inefficient and just plain bad for the market. Waiting 4-6 weeks to hear back on an offer submitted to the bank is just insane. Ultimately, this lag time will hurt the market as buyers grow frustrated with the process. There is a school of thought out there that believes that as prices drop demand will increase, but it appears that the drop in prices is only putting buyers on the sidelines. I think there may be a time in the future where prices will be MORE than affordable because of the inefficiency the banks are causing in the real estate market today. A particular foreclosure I have been watching has been tied up in court for seven months. The owners of the home probably stopped paying more than a year ago. There have been several times in the history of real estate that property has gone undervalued for a number of years, and it looks like market conditions may force us there again. Just my two cents.

"There is a school of thought out there that believes that as prices drop demand will increase, but it appears that the drop in prices is only putting buyers on the sidelines."

My personal take is, they're waiting for a bottom, and not just a short bottoming out which triggers a short increase.. we're talking a sustainted base from which to build on, a credible, reasonable valuation of property.

"There is a school of thought out there that believes that as prices drop demand will increase, but it appears that the drop in prices is only putting buyers on the sidelines."

My personal take is, they're waiting for a bottom, and not just a short bottoming out which triggers a short increase.. we're talking a sustainted base from which to build on, a credible, reasonable valuation of property.

You're right...no need to rush into this market and catch the falling knives. Even if one "misses the bottom"-- as old traders would say: "It is easier to make up lost opportunities than lost capital."

You're right...no need to rush into this market and catch the falling knives. Even if one "misses the bottom"-- as old traders would say: "It is easier to make up lost opportunities than lost capital."

Shel, do you sell t-shirts?

You're right...no need to rush into this market and catch the falling knives. Even if one "misses the bottom"-- as old traders would say: "It is easier to make up lost opportunities than lost capital."

If a few points makes a difference in the buyer's mind between a good buy or not, the buyer has no business buying (and probably never will). What you're arguing is a purely academic exercise that isn't really playing out in the reality of today's market. Every reasonable person I know thinks we're at the low end of the spectrum and whether it drops another 10% or goes up 10% from here is of little concern.

If a few points makes a difference in the buyer's mind between a good buy or not, the buyer has no business buying (and probably never will). What you're arguing is a purely academic exercise that isn't really playing out in the reality of today's market. Every reasonable person I know thinks we're at the low end of the spectrum and whether it drops another 10% or goes up 10% from here is of little concern.

What if the average asking price drops another 40%?

If a few points makes a difference in the buyer's mind between a good buy or not, the buyer has no business buying (and probably never will). What you're arguing is a purely academic exercise that isn't really playing out in the reality of today's market. Every reasonable person I know thinks we're at the low end of the spectrum and whether it drops another 10% or goes up 10% from here is of little concern.

Then I can assume that all the "reasonable people" have already pulled the trigger--leaving a glut of properties for the "unreasonable--and well capitalized--people" to scoop up at a bargain as the prices continue to tank farther into the future. Works for them.


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From this article in Feb 2008 issue of Harper's magazine:

http://www.harpers.org/archive/2008/02/0081908

Because all asset hyperinflations revert to the mean, we can expect housing prices to decline roughly 38 percent from their peak as they return to something closer to the historical rate of monetary inflation. If the rate of decline stabilizes at between 6 and 7 percent each year, the correction has about six years to go before things stabilize, leaving the FIRE economy in need of $12 trillion. Where will that money be found?

What if this is true?

From this article in Feb 2008 issue of Harper's magazine:

http://www.harpers.org/archive/2008/02/0081908



What if this is true?

To revert to the mean in SoWal 38 percent won't even come close.