Area Foreclosures

Your statement about Watersound Beach { I wouldn't take the risk if you gave me the land! } is amazing to me considering we can both see the property from our respective lots. I still think Watersound Beach is worth tons.

And I still wouldn't take the risk, cause in WSB Walton County counts the square footage of decks/balcony's into their formula on top of the highest rates per sq. foot anywhere along the coast! Pretty soon they will be taxing the air above the property! Plenty of lots for sale primarily because of the property tax issue!

And I still wouldn't take the risk, cause in WSB Walton County counts the square footage of decks/balcony's into their formula on top of the highest rates per sq. foot anywhere along the coast! Pretty soon they will be taxing the air above the property! Plenty of lots for sale primarily because of the property tax issue!

That explains the height restriction. :funn:

I don't feel to bad about 750 home sales last year.

2007
Total Homes Sold- 672 Average Sales Price- $858,516 Median Sales Price- $537,500 Inventory- 2,584

2008
Total Homes Sold- 754 Average Sales Price- $636,225 Median Sales Price- $395,000 Inventory- 2,458

I think the big take away from these numbers is this - we had sales of 754. Total number of sales as a percentage of inventory from the previous year was 29.1%. Yet inventory dropped by only 4.8%! Obviously there's pent up inventory that is coming onto the market just as fast as sales can take it down. That implies more downside to median sell price over the next year or two or.... Once sales start to over take listings, you'll see inventory drop, and we can start talking about a bottom in prices.

2007
Total Homes Sold- 672 Average Sales Price- $858,516 Median Sales Price- $537,500 Inventory- 2,584

2008
Total Homes Sold- 754 Average Sales Price- $636,225 Median Sales Price- $395,000 Inventory- 2,458

I think the big take away from these numbers is this - we had sales of 754. Total number of sales as a percentage of inventory from the previous year was 29.1%. Yet inventory dropped by only 4.8%! Obviously there's pent up inventory that is coming onto the market just as fast as sales can take it down. That implies more downside to median sell price over the next year or two or.... Once sales start to over take listings, you'll see inventory drop, and we can start talking about a bottom in prices.

Can you add the stats from 2006?

.

2007
Total Homes Sold- 672 Average Sales Price- $858,516 Median Sales Price- $537,500 Inventory- 2,584

2008
Total Homes Sold- 754 Average Sales Price- $636,225 Median Sales Price- $395,000 Inventory- 2,458

I think the big take away from these numbers is this - we had sales of 754. Total number of sales as a percentage of inventory from the previous year was 29.1%. Yet inventory dropped by only 4.8%! Obviously there's pent up inventory that is coming onto the market just as fast as sales can take it down. That implies more downside to median sell price over the next year or two or.... Once sales start to over take listings, you'll see inventory drop, and we can start talking about a bottom in prices.

I know you have to think abstractly for this but I believe it is quickly approaching the pricing bottom. Completely disregard the inventory and focus on the sales data. This is a price driven market and most everything that's selling is at it's current market bottom price. Nearly no buyers are overpaying which makes artificially inflated sales prices abherrant. There are 1,000's of local properties that have pushed back at the pricing pressure and decided not to sell. The bottom price for local real estate is not going to be $0 in this downturn, maybe in another 70 years, but not now. This downturn's price bottom should be at 1999 levels.

It will be interesting to watch the market in 2009. The economy seems to really be breaking down now plus folks have lost one-third or more of their stock investments while the value of their primary residence continues downward. Credit is still tight. It seems to me that the vacation market is the primary value driver in SoWal. If it holds up, further damage could be somewhat contained. It not, it could be ugly. BTW, travel spending was down over 8% in the third quarter of 2008. Have not seen fourth quarter numbers yet.

I believe it is quickly approaching the pricing bottom.

.

SHELLY, I haven't been on Sowal as long as you. Have you made a prediction yet about where you really think the prices will truly stabilize at in terms of a historical value? An example would be where I predicted we would see stabilization ( bottom ) at 1999 price levels.

Can you add the stats from 2006?

.

Sales in 2007 equaled 28.4% of the previous years inventory. Inventory increased 179% between 2006 and 2007. Clearly inventory is on the way down right now.

Hey Josh, care to post those tables of single family home stats for Oct - Dec? It might be interesting to see where we're at.

SHELLY, I haven't been on Sowal as long as you. Have you made a prediction yet about where you really think the prices will truly stabilize at in terms of a historical value? An example would be where I predicted we would see stabilization ( bottom ) at 1999 price levels.

Real estate price booms tend to follow an 'L', not a 'V'. We'll get to a bottom, then tread sideways. For a good pulse on economic growth watch housing, it tends to be a leading indicator because it's tied to credit and consumer confidence.

Real estate price booms tend to follow an 'L', not a 'V'. We'll get to a bottom, then tread sideways. For a good pulse on economic growth watch housing, it tends to be a leading indicator because it's tied to credit and consumer confidence.

Care to stick your neck out there and say where prices are going to bottom at expressed in a historical perspective?

Care to stick your neck out there and say where prices are going to bottom at expressed in a historical perspective?

Let me jump in here since I don't have a reputation at risk:funn:It looks pretty simple to me. While it may not be the absolute bottom, I feel comfortable saying that a safe buy point will be the inflation adjusted pre bubble price for homes/land. By my calculation that would be approximately $ 185 per sq. ft. based on the area wide averages that Josh publishes. I think the current number is somewhere just above $200 per sq. ft. I suggest that if there is exogenous legislation that provides huge incentives i.e. $20k TAX CREDIT for home purchases, present value calculations can be made and added on a sq. ft basis to adjust.

i think watercolor bottoms at $250-$300 a square foot on some properties. if one see's a property they like in the $200-$300 a square foot range i'd not hesitate to buy. obama knows housing is the root of all problems and i bet he tries something major like a huge tax credit to get it going. BUT THE PROBLEM IS FINANCING. ITS SO TOUGH TO GET BANKS TO LOAN NOW.but as a note said even when the bottoms in it will be more a L than a V. remember there also massive pent up demand from sellers who are waiting to dump when the mkt rebounds

Care to stick your neck out there and say where prices are going to bottom at expressed in a historical perspective?

Your 99-01 estimate probably isn't a bad target. The economy is the big unknown.. where that goes, what happens with inflation, there are a lot of 'what ifs'.

Let me jump in here since I don't have a reputation at risk:funn:It looks pretty simple to me. While it may not be the absolute bottom, I feel comfortable saying that a safe buy point will be the inflation adjusted pre bubble price for homes/land. By my calculation that would be approximately $ 185 per sq. ft. based on the area wide averages that Josh publishes. I think the current number is somewhere just above $200 per sq. ft. I suggest that if there is exogenous legislation that provides huge incentives i.e. $20k TAX CREDIT for home purchases, present value calculations can be made and added on a sq. ft basis to adjust.

Okay, who are you and what have you done with the real CC??

It will be interesting to watch the market in 2009. The economy seems to really be breaking down now plus folks have lost one-third or more of their stock investments while the value of their primary residence continues downward. Credit is still tight. It seems to me that the vacation market is the primary value driver in SoWal. If it holds up, further damage could be somewhat contained. It not, it could be ugly. BTW, travel spending was down over 8% in the third quarter of 2008. Have not seen fourth quarter numbers yet.

This is key. The second/vacation home market is far more vulnerable than the primary home market, imo. No one needs a vacation home, and as we've learned, many who thought they could afford them really can't. The pool of truly qualified buyers is drastically diminished from boom years, and inventory is way up - not just in sowal, but in virtually every second home market in the country. Add to that severely restricted credit and . . . ouch.

Here is a snippet from my 2008 end of year report. Statistics are directly from the MLS and are single family homes between Destin and Inlet Beach.


2008 has been a rough year for the economy in many different areas including Real Estate. We showed a sharp decrease in the average sales price in this area compared to years past. The average sales price for the area is now down between 2003-2004 levels. Total sales in 2008 (754) were over 20% higher than the low in 2006 (618). I strongly believe that sales will continue to rise with the deeply discounted homes that are now available.

2005
Total Homes Sold - 1,270 Average Sales Price- $802,072 Median Sales Price- $569,000 Inventory- 1,327

2006
Total Homes Sold- 618 Average Sales Price- $861,960 Median Sales Price- $558,750 Inventory- 2,366

2007
Total Homes Sold- 672 Average Sales Price- $858,516 Median Sales Price- $537,500 Inventory- 2,584
2008

Total Homes Sold- 754 Average Sales Price- $636,225 Median Sales Price- $395,000 Inventory- 2,458

Here you go Shelly.

Sales in 2007 equaled 28.4% of the previous years inventory. Inventory increased 179% between 2006 and 2007. Clearly inventory is on the way down right now.

Hey Josh, care to post those tables of single family home stats for Oct - Dec? It might be interesting to see where we're at.

It's not formatting the tables properly. Send me your email address again via pm and I'll send them.

Okay, who are you and what have you done with the real CC??

Dammit, freaking Mensa stuff slips out periodically---usually I'm stuck in the gutter. You've got to promise not to tell anyone in the lounge.

Dammit, freaking Mensa stuff slips out periodically---usually I'm stuck in the gutter. You've got to promise not to tell anyone in the lounge.

Your secret is safe with me.

SHELLY, I haven't been on Sowal as long as you. Have you made a prediction yet about where you really think the prices will truly stabilize at in terms of a historical value? An example would be where I predicted we would see stabilization ( bottom ) at 1999 price levels.

SHELLY's is more of a doomsday prophecy. We'll be bartering and growing our own food before SHELLY thinks it's over.

SHELLY's is more of a doomsday prophecy. We'll be bartering and growing our own food before SHELLY thinks it's over.

Have you ever seen SHELLY's prediction for a firming of price? It sounds like he called the downturn correctly.

Here you go Shelly.

Tanks, Josh.

.

SHELLY, I haven't been on Sowal as long as you. Have you made a prediction yet about where you really think the prices will truly stabilize at in terms of a historical value? An example would be where I predicted we would see stabilization ( bottom ) at 1999 price levels.

...at present I envision a "bottom" more as matter of time than a matter of price. (Timewise I think at least another year and then flat for several more.) To even predict a price point would be to assume that the "vacation/second home/building lot" market was a "real market" to begin with and not just another speculative bubble like tech stocks and beanie babies. Last time I looked, JDS Uniphase (bubble price: $1,000) was $4-and-change; and Princess the Beanie Bear (bubble price: $700) could be had on Ebay for $3.99. Granted, RE is more tangible than the other two (although the Beanie Bear is pretty close), but it is not only more risky and expensive to carry, but also a depreciating asset that's not an "everyman's" investment--like so many investulators are now finding out.

The economic meltdown; global recession; RE Crash; Credit Crunch; Stock Market/Hedge Fund Collapse; Trillion-Dollar Bailout-a-Palooza; and Madoff-like schemes will totally change the dynamics of investment going forward. All the rules have been tossed away and we're entering uncharted economic waters. When the smoke clears, I think a high-priced "second/vacation home or investment lot" is the last thing the public-at-large will be seeking (or able) to acquire.

The RE-Free Money Frenzy has produced an over-abundance of vacation property all around the world. I know that many who live and vacation here think that this is the "only and most pristine" property worth buying on the face of the earth--truth be told, it isn't.

I'm sorry but I don't agree with the End of Days scenarios. We are going into an era of realigning of the risk with the reward. Every bubble has speculators (buyers) and sources of funds (lenders). As long as the buyers believe in the bigger fool theory and the lenders can take a cut for providing the funds while perceiving to offload all the risk, a potential bubble will develop.
The artificial wealth creation in the real estate creates artificial wealth creation in other asset classes thru the use of home equity loan funds pushing artificial values even higher (i.e. stocks, collectibles, gold etc.)
Just like the creation and destruction of matter, this is in fact a zero sum game. The destruction of atrificial equity in real estate has resulted in the destruction of equity in most all asset classes. Even the pschological benefits of increased sense of well being and sense of financial security, are being counter-balanced now with duress.
Those who benefited are those who should pay. But as a society, we have chosen to try to mitigate the effects instead of letting assets come to an equilibrium. Apparently, we as a society are willing to accept lifestyle changes and inevitable regulatory constraints, along with Gawd knows what unintended consequences in the future. All from a sense of compassion for the financial "victims".
I'm not saying this compassion is misplaced. On the contrary, my view of the free market system with a dogma of greed and ultimate unaccountability, has been turned on it's head. This dogma is never preached or professed but is almost always practiced.
We must understand and accept the fact that we as a society are the ultimate collective losers in the zero sum game voluntarily, by decree, by confiscation, and changes in priorities and lifestyles. I am confident this will ultimately result in a better way for all. To believe otherwise robs me of optimism--and I won't allow that.