Correction: Panhandle real estate sell off just starting

i also think st. joe will alter there ridiculous extension policy and buy those lots back from people that are past build out, for the ORIGINAL release price. they will then come up with a new scheme to market those lots WITH PLANS for a relative bargain, with the catch being the new buyers must start building within 60 days. real estate agents out there be prepared for blast email !!

Gee, Cork... I also have a bad girl side, but people have to know me longer to see it...and it doesn't involve real estate (or anything I could get arrested for!)

Shelly, there's a woman who has written several books about small homes. The ideas are great, though some of the homes are over 2000 square feet, which doesn't seem small at all to me. I'd see a small home as 1500 square feet or under.

I read something years ago that said the problem with very large homes is that it encourages family members not to interact with each other as much as small homes do (unless you make the effort of course). We have a regular size old (1912) two-story house (not big/not small) and, aside from liking the old look of the house, the thing I like best next is that wherever the kids are, I can hear them. One of my daughters will go to her room (right upstairs from my favorite chair) and I can hear her dancing (and she doesn't know I can hear her). I think that's so cute and imagine that she's dancing in front of the mirror. When I'm downstairs, I can hear the kids when they sing in the shower, too. Yech, when the boyfriends start coming around, we'll hear those kissing sounds, too...

An interesting article from Sunday's NY Times. For all those who used to remember what a "home" really used to be (and now what it has become): The Way We Live Now

.................. Boy guys, I understand! I can only take this in small doses. Thank God I have a life. After a couple of days of this, I feel like offing myself to put me out of my misery. Incomprehensible to me.

I need a little therapy. :funn: :clap_1: :rofl: :funn:

OK. Feel much better. Can hang on for another day.

- Bank of Japan's decision is going to force Fed's hand.

- JOE stock off nearly 40% from its highs.... Real Estate is not a liquid/efficient market, and takes longer to adjust that stocks.... but I believe it is dialed in now.

Back to January 2004 pricing in South Walton - that is where we are headed -It will look simply like what is known as a 'retracement' on a stock chart. Real Estate in South Walton is now worth 30-40% less than it was at the very peak. No more, no less. It will only take time to bear out.

St. Joe's company stock has taken about 7 months to fall 40%. Real estate will take twice as long, let's say 14 months. By next May, real estate may stop declining. 40% folks. give or take 5 %, and depending on how high interest rates go. Last nights decision by the Bank of Japan now gives us an incredibly good tip, that rates are going to be rising more than we thought just yesterday.

If you like South Walton long term, don't buy real estate at asking prices (because as the weekend auction showed, ask and offer are a long way apart)... buy St. Joe stock (JOE) which has already taken the appropriate hit discounting what has started to happen, and what the market things is going to happen (down) already.

If you love SoWal, and are worried about "waiting" to buy real estate, that you may miss out, just simply buy some JOE stock which has already taken the hit.

It is now time to cover the short play on JOE here in the mid 50's. Consider buying JOE now instead of real estate, as JOE is reflecting the bid prices (which were not accepted for the most part) at recent So Wal real estate auction, not the ask prices.

Man this game is simple.

>>>>>>>> scoot right over to the lounge and we'll give Camp Creek Kid, our resident therapist, a jingle! We'll all be fine in no time!

I know its not easy.... just seems like it in hindsight. It's not. How do I know it has not been easy? Because 6-10 months ago, when there were two or three posters to these boards basically screaming "sell now", the vast and overwhelming majority of people thought that was the wrong call, and let them know it. So it is tough, not easy. "Real estate goes up", "Boomers are retiring", "West Palm is more expensive", "An airport approval is coming", "

It isn't easy to see at the beginning of a boom or bust cycle. But, it should be plain as day when you are smack dab in the middle of a cycle like right now.

Get the popcorn out Joe.

Tyler, There's no intent to attack anyone as you are doing. First point was that using list prices is not the indicia that value is based on. Do you disagree with that point?

The article that Shelly linked was interesting and certainly a consideration but it relates to the overall market in the US and one investor moving his holdings to casinos which are still real estate holdings. I never said that the market is booming in the US and wouldn't because frankly I don't know that much about every market in the US.

A quick search on the same magazine produced other articles related specifically to the Florida market and more specifically the Florida Panhandle.

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2005/10/17/8358067/index.htm


All realtors are worried and sales have fallen dramatically. I know and am close friends with several reputable realtors who have seen their commissions plummet - decline by triple digits over the same time last year.

No Tyler, you don't know. Not all realtors are worried. Being reputable doesn't equate to success in today's world. Many reputable realtors believe that they can be sucessful using yesterday's approaches. The fact is that the internet has forever changed their profession beyond their ability to comprehend. The last couple of years when they were making triple digits, customers were basically flopping into their laps. Now they have to work harder. The average realtor's lack of technological acumen severely impacts their ability to be successful today. While 86% of realtors have websites, only 12% of them get 25% or more of their business from it. The average realtor is at the mercy of a bevy of webmasters, software distibutors, marketing services and even the search engines promising an effective internet presence and it's just not that easy. The cost of internet promotion will become cost prohibited for many realtors as the online competition gets stiffer and with the number of sales as low as they are, they are going to continue to have a very difficult time.

right now and at least several, several months and possible a few years to come, there's little money or return to be made here.

If you expect to make money in several months, that's why people are in trouble. If you read my post carefully, you will note that I sited the ability to be flexible and adapt to the environment as an important factor to success in investing. Regarding South Walton, I have maintained on many threads that many people can no longer afford 30A and despite many peoples' hope that it will become affordable again, I think those days are gone forever. When you say there's little money to be made "here", if you are speaking of the Beaches of South Walton, I would tend to agree with you. If you read my post in the manner in which it was intended, you will also note that I said that I'm looking towards affordable housing on longterm rentals - that's not 30A.

Today I was working with a client who purchased about 9 acres in Callaway slightly over a year ago for $495K which is surrounded by 5000 acres owned by JOE . There have been 11 sales in the last year along a 3-5 mile stretch that comp it out at about $1.1-$1.2 million. We're also looking into whether he'd be wiser to put in streets and parcel it out into the 15 units/acre allowed and sell them for $100K-200K each depending on the amenities he'd put in. That's $13 -27 million dollars less expenses on a $495K investment just about a year ago. Open minded and flexible people are making money in this market. They didn't get stars in their eyes about Watercolor or Alys beach. They make sound business decisions based on what they saw, not what they were told.

You can't spin the facts,

There are no spins here. Only people that have their minds made up. Maybe they own, maybe they don't even own here. You're assaulting me and telling me to forget what I see and trust someone that I don't even know, that apparently isn't making money (perhaps losing it), or possibly hasn't even invested in this market?

Tony Robbins, (a very positive person) and mentor to many successful people says that if you continue to do the same things you've been doing, expect to get the same results. And yes, Paula, isn't it great to feel good.

You and SJ seem to be agents with lots of data at their fingertips. Can you post some sales data for November thru February that indicates a robust or even a stable market in the major developments along 30A versus using market wide averages or things occurring in Callaway, Freeport, Defuniak, etc? Give some very specific examples of lots selling for more than nearby parcels that sold a year or so ago, resale condos too. Not interested in areas north, east or west of 30A.

This market (along 30A--not necessarily Freeport, Defuniak and other parts of Walton County) is falling and falling fast. It has already hit the raw lot market where actual sales prices are at least 30 to 40% less than they were 18 to 24 months ago.

... In addition, there are many, many lots and homes for sale along 30A that are listed at below the original purchase price--people are beginning to lose money. I hate to see this happen to people, but it is a reality. If you don't believe me, ask one of the realtors on this board to verify.

Has anybody been around long enough to remember what the market was like in the early 1980's. It got pretty ugly for a couple of years but eventually came around very nicely. In Perdido Key, in those days you could buy almost new condo's that cost 85K a couple of years before for 45K. I know a few people that bought multiple units, held for a few years and sold for over double. Maybe the same type thing is about to happen again on 30A?

I am not cheap.

Unfortunately it appears the real estate boom, called for by ecopal's linked article from a tallahasee real estate conference, missed the direction of their call.

Smiling Joe has posted the October real trends #'s for Sowal, and it really looks like to me the y-o-y trends are worse than they even look like on paper (and on paper they look bad) and November it can be taken as a given, will surely be even worse.

Why do I say they look even worse then the data bears out on paper??? Let's look at dollar value of sales year over year.. Oct. 2004 520M, vs. 347M for Oct. 2005. Residential lots sales - $226M in Oct. 2004, vs. 82M in 2005. Contrast these substantial declines, with the part anecdotal, part emperical fact that listings of lots and residential homes for sale in Oct. 2005 is much much more than was for sale in 2004 on a total dollar basis, and we have the makings of a downswing that has only started, not a boom starting. It will take months and months to bear itself out, as sellers of real estate historically do not aggressively reduce their asking prices, until it's much too late. Some don't have to sell at all, particularly in South Walton. Then there are another group that probably should sell, but hang on anyway, and weather the storm. Then, unfortunately, even in South Walton you have speculators and people who stretched, who have to sell if they bought in 2004-05, because they can't afford a prospectively large capital loss, can't afford to carry the dramtically higher insurance and tax rates, in the face of rents that have been VIRTUALLY stagnant for 6 years, compared to valuations. It is these marginal buyers, who will become the marginally aggressive sellers - and there is no way around it, even in South Walton where the beaches are beautiful. To be sure, some sellers never "have" to sell and this is true of This will be doubly problematic in an area like SOWAL, where much of the activity from 2000 to 2005 has been purchases by speculators, who don't have to live there: i.e. it's an investment.

It is clear when the bulls on SoWal real estate now use phrases like "longer term" and cite the wonderful qualities of SoWal that attracted them to the place in the first instance, that the writing is on the wall.

However, having said all that, although I expect real estate values to resume a normalized annual appreciation rate of 7-9 % per year, after the next 12-18 month downturn, which I would ballpark at roughly 15-25% depending on the kind of property and location.

For those looking to hedge their exposure to South Walton real estate, but don't want to compete with all of the listings that are growing dramatically, by owner, by broker, unofficially and otherwise, the only liquid mechanism available to do so at this time is public trading equity of St. Joe Company, JOE. The perfect time to start shorting JOE however was about 4 months ago in June or July, which was as one might expect 2-4 months after the cognisenti in South Walton had realized the real estate values had stopped rising. Yes folks real estate peaked in SouthWalton somewhere between Thanksgiving of 2004 and March of 2005. It didn't go down, but it didn't continue to rise. Dentists in Birmingham, and Proctoligists in Atlanta starting reading magazine articles this spring about a pending potential real estate bubble, and they were the marginal buyers/speculators. It took the cognisenti on Wall Street, who don't have their finger on the pulse of South Walton real estate as closely as you all do, several weeks, maybe 12 weeks, to figure this out and start selling their holdings down, but there is much more downside to go, should valuations plumet an additional 20% in the area, as I expect is a good possibility and not extreme at all, given the multiple 100% increase in valuations over the past few years...

If you're someone who truly has a 25 year time horizon and have a bunch of cash, get ready to be a buyer, but don't be silly and buy the first significant dip we're about to see born out by the data soon... hold your powder until you see significantly large scales of foreclosures, probably not for 18 months or more, when interest rates on Adjustable Mortgages are back to normalized levels of between 7.5-8.5% - and payments on those mortgages rise 60% as a result, putting the final squeeze on the unfortunate marginal segment of owners.

Unfortunately it appears the real estate boom, called for by ecopal's linked article from a tallahasee real estate conference, missed the direction of their call.

Smiling Joe has posted the October real trends #'s for Sowal, and it really looks like to me the y-o-y trends are worse than they even look like on paper (and on paper they look bad) and November it can be taken as a given, will surely be even worse.

Why do I say they look even worse then the data bears out on paper??? Let's look at dollar value of sales year over year.. Oct. 2004 520M, vs. 347M for Oct. 2005. Residential lots sales - $226M in Oct. 2004, vs. 82M in 2005. Contrast these substantial declines, with the part anecdotal, part emperical fact that listings of lots and residential homes for sale in Oct. 2005 is much much more than was for sale in 2004 on a total dollar basis, and we have the makings of a downswing that has only started, not a boom starting. It will take months and months to bear itself out, as sellers of real estate historically do not aggressively reduce their asking prices, until it's much too late. Some don't have to sell at all, particularly in South Walton. Then there are another group that probably should sell, but hang on anyway, and weather the storm. Then, unfortunately, even in South Walton you have speculators and people who stretched, who have to sell if they bought in 2004-05, because they can't afford a prospectively large capital loss, can't afford to carry the dramtically higher insurance and tax rates, in the face of rents that have been VIRTUALLY stagnant for 6 years, compared to valuations. It is these marginal buyers, who will become the marginally aggressive sellers - and there is no way around it, even in South Walton where the beaches are beautiful. To be sure, some sellers never "have" to sell and this is true of This will be doubly problematic in an area like SOWAL, where much of the activity from 2000 to 2005 has been purchases by speculators, who don't have to live there: i.e. it's an investment.

It is clear when the bulls on SoWal real estate now use phrases like "longer term" and cite the wonderful qualities of SoWal that attracted them to the place in the first instance, that the writing is on the wall.

However, having said all that, although I expect real estate values to resume a normalized annual appreciation rate of 7-9 % per year, after the next 12-18 month downturn, which I would ballpark at roughly 15-25% depending on the kind of property and location.

For those looking to hedge their exposure to South Walton real estate, but don't want to compete with all of the listings that are growing dramatically, by owner, by broker, unofficially and otherwise, the only liquid mechanism available to do so at this time is public trading equity of St. Joe Company, JOE. The perfect time to start shorting JOE however was about 4 months ago in June or July, which was as one might expect 2-4 months after the cognisenti in South Walton had realized the real estate values had stopped rising. Yes folks real estate peaked in SouthWalton somewhere between Thanksgiving of 2004 and March of 2005. It didn't go down, but it didn't continue to rise. Dentists in Birmingham, and Proctoligists in Atlanta starting reading magazine articles this spring about a pending potential real estate bubble, and they were the marginal buyers/speculators. It took the cognisenti on Wall Street, who don't have their finger on the pulse of South Walton real estate as closely as you all do, several weeks, maybe 12 weeks, to figure this out and start selling their holdings down, but there is much more downside to go, should valuations plumet an additional 20% in the area, as I expect is a good possibility and not extreme at all, given the multiple 100% increase in valuations over the past few years...

If you're someone who truly has a 25 year time horizon and have a bunch of cash, get ready to be a buyer, but don't be silly and buy the first significant dip we're about to see born out by the data soon... hold your powder until you see significantly large scales of foreclosures, probably not for 18 months or more, when interest rates on Adjustable Mortgages are back to normalized levels of between 7.5-8.5% - and payments on those mortgages rise 60% as a result, putting the final squeeze on the unfortunate marginal segment of owners.

I remember like yesterday '02, '03, '04, '05 when values significantly left rental rates and professionals in Real Estate were advising people to buy now anyway. Professionals were discrediting and pummeling anyone who would try and keep it real.

Hindsite is now available, was the residential housing product that was being introduced and offered really worth what the commissioned pro's were advising? I saw an awful lot of big smiles, drinks, food and laughter back then by people who weren't creators of anything.

and the creators weren't pushing the envelope per sq/ft?

However, having said all that, although I expect real estate values to resume a normalized annual appreciation rate of 7-9 % per year, after the next 12-18 month downturn, which I would ballpark at roughly 15-25% depending on the kind of property and location.