We've Peaked On Foreclosures ! - NOT !!!

I think the ultimate big difference is Cassine is almost built out where Cypress and The Preserve, etc are saturated with vacant lots.

That and the overall location. I can guarantee you would have vastly different buyers in both locations. Not financially, but what they are looking for.

I think Cypress Dunes has some nice looking amenities.

That and the overall location. I can guarantee you would have vastly different buyers in both locations. Not financially, but what they are looking for.

Based on actual sales data, not just conjecture and opinion, it appears to me that houses and lots in all three subdivisions have been selling at about the same prices over time.

I agree with you. But, the point I was trying to make is that prices for raw lots are plummeting. BOTH of these developments now have lots going for $100k and lower. And, yes Cypress has much, much nicer homes and amenities than Cassine, but a longer distance to the beach. Bottom line, lot prices (and soon home prices too) are falling to 2000ish levels with farther to go.

I'm seeing it the same as Fisher on this one.

I'm seeing it the same as Fisher on this one.

I am not really sure what there is to see on this one. This all began with us talking about selling homes for under the replacement values. Which we have been doing all year long. Fisher then asked for proof in which he was given several examples. Then we started comparing Cassine to Cypress and The Preserve which is really hard to do because Cassine is an established almost built out neighborhood and the others are a bunch of vacant lots. I agree things will get worse in certain areas especially areas that were built on pure speculation. So are we talking about it getting worse? Or are we talking about replacement cost? Or are we talking about similarities between Cassine, Preserve and Cypress Dunes? BTW, when I sell a property one of the first questions a buyer ask is can you walk to the beach? We call it the toddler test.

I am not really sure what there is to see on this one. This all began with us talking about selling homes for under the replacement values. Which we have been doing all year long. Fisher then asked for proof in which he was given several examples. Then we started comparing Cassine to Cypress and The Preserve which is really hard to do because Cassine is an established almost built out neighborhood and the others are a bunch of vacant lots. I agree things will get worse in certain areas especially areas that were built on pure speculation. So are we talking about it getting worse? Or are we talking about replacement cost? Or are we talking about similarities between Cassine, Preserve and Cypress Dunes? BTW, when I sell a property one of the first questions a buyer ask is can you walk to the beach? We call it the toddler test.

This Thread has been stretched in a bunch of different directions. I haven't seen any examples of a neighborhood where I can't buy a lot and reproduce a home for less than a home currently for sale.

I feel certain that today's buyers would rather purchase a complete home even if it were 10% higher than a home pre-construction. I think that 10% margin is the bubble.

It's a worthy note you mentioned about Buyers first questions. Speculative builders would be better off if they knew the first 5 questions Buyers ask before viewing and the first 3 questions short term renters asked before agreeing to rent. These are highly predictable questions.

It's interesting to see you and the other Realtors who are still here. 3 years in now we can start seeing who walks the walk in the business. Thumbs up Bobby.

I am not really sure what there is to see on this one. This all began with us talking about selling homes for under the replacement values. Which we have been doing all year long. Fisher then asked for proof in which he was given several examples. Then we started comparing Cassine to Cypress and The Preserve which is really hard to do because Cassine is an established almost built out neighborhood and the others are a bunch of vacant lots. I agree things will get worse in certain areas especially areas that were built on pure speculation. So are we talking about it getting worse? Or are we talking about replacement cost? Or are we talking about similarities between Cassine, Preserve and Cypress Dunes? BTW, when I sell a property one of the first questions a buyer ask is can you walk to the beach? We call it the toddler test.

With all due respect (as you appear to be a nice person and good realtor), you haven't yet shown a house that sold for below replacement cost. In addition, the argument that Cassine somehow holds more value than Cypress Dunes and The Preserve doesn't pass the sniff test.

One question, which subdivision out of those three has seen the lowest sales price (both in terms of real dollars and dollars per square foot) over the last year or so? You got it, Cassine.

That's why we started talking about some of these other things, to use some facts to analyze the "lower than replacement cost" theory. So, far, no facts to back it up the lower than replacement cost theory.

With all due respect (as you appear to be a nice person and good realtor), you haven't yet shown a house that sold for below replacement cost. In addition, the argument that Cassine somehow holds more value than Cypress Dunes and The Preserve doesn't pass the sniff test.

One question, which subdivision out of those three has seen the lowest sales price (both in terms of real dollars and dollars per square foot) over the last year or so? You got it, Cassine.

That's why we started talking about some of these other things, to use some facts to analyze the "lower than replacement cost" theory. So, far, no facts to back it up the lower than replacement cost theory.

I'm siding with you on this one too. You are correct.

While we may have seen a couple of examples that show a home sold for less than replacement cost, the real answer lies in the general market not just onesies and twosies. What got me started on this is the listing in Grove for a relatively modest home, x distance from the beach listed for $800k. What counts are sold prices but I don't have access to sold homes/lots data. I do not have the ambition to tackle Walton County's database.

As a general question, how much would a lot cost that is an "easy" walk to the beach, say less than five minutes? Add to the cost of the lot, say $300k for a 2,000 SF home and you have the central question: can I buy an existing home for less than ($300,000 + cost of the five-minute-walk-to-the-beach lot)?

While we may have seen a couple of examples that show a home sold for less than replacement cost, the real answer lies in the general market not just onesies and twosies. What got me started on this is the listing in Grove for a relatively modest home, x distance from the beach listed for $800k. What counts are sold prices but I don't have access to sold homes/lots data. I do not have the ambition to tackle Walton County's database.

As a general question, how much would a lot cost that is an "easy" walk to the beach, say less than five minutes? Add to the cost of the lot, say $300k for a 2,000 SF home and you have the central question: can I buy an existing home for less than ($300,000 + cost of the five-minute-walk-to-the-beach lot)?

My mother has a brand new home in Cypress Breeze Plantation. It's 2,200 sq. ft., 4 Beds, 3 Baths, 12' ceilings, granite everywhere, stainless professional series appliances. In addition, it comes with a 2 story carriage house that is 968 square feet.

Cypress Breeze Plantation is a 5 minute walk to the gulf. Cypress Breeze has the largest pool in Walton County. To children, the pool is like Disney World.

Her home is listed in the low 400's. I thought it couldn't be beat, but there is potential to buy the right vacant lot and build the same home for 10% less. It depends on your construction costs and time frame.

Pardon my tangent, AA, but how is the maintenance of that pool being paid for? Are all those lot owners still paying dues?

Pardon my tangent, AA, but how is the maintenance of that pool being paid for? Are all those lot owners still paying dues?

Good question. The dues are very small, but the community is still keeping up the pool. I know they turn off the biggest of the waterfalls when there are no guests at the pool. They keep it locked over there as well. This has to help keep it somewhat members only. I looked at the pool yesterday and everything seems to be in order. The water is clean and the restrooms and elevator are like brand new.

We are 3 1/2 years into the crash and everything looks o.k. over there to me.

With all due respect (as you appear to be a nice person and good realtor), you haven't yet shown a house that sold for below replacement cost. In addition, the argument that Cassine somehow holds more value than Cypress Dunes and The Preserve doesn't pass the sniff test.

One question, which subdivision out of those three has seen the lowest sales price (both in terms of real dollars and dollars per square foot) over the last year or so? You got it, Cassine.

That's why we started talking about some of these other things, to use some facts to analyze the "lower than replacement cost" theory. So, far, no facts to back it up the lower than replacement cost theory.

I guess we can agree to disagree. I base my experience on buyers as far as Cassine goes. I have tried to sell lots in The Preserve and Cypress and buyers always say too far to the water. My buyers have leaned toward Cassine as you can tell by my vacant land sales in Cassine. I feel every home sale that has been brought up in this thread are fine examples of good sales that could not be reproduced. If you base your value of $75,000 maybe not but my sales this year tend to have been in areas that are not saturated with vacant lots. So maybe in some ways we are both correct.:idontno: Thanks for the debate and I mean no disrespect as I find these exchanges very helpful. My experience with buyers this year could change next year. I guess that is why I love this business!

Bobby, how much does a lot in Watersound Beach or Watersound West sell for?

Bobby, how much does a lot in Watersound Beach or Watersound West sell for?

200K-500K & 100K-200K according the county records. WB appears to be doing well on sales this year as discounts off 2005 prices are pushing 45%. Everyone in there that purchased between 2003-2007 lost money. (But hey, they can probably afford it. 😀)

200K-500K & 100K-200K according the county records. WB appears to be doing well on sales this year as discounts off 2005 prices are pushing 45%. Everyone in there that purchased between 2003-2007 lost money. (But hey, they can probably afford it. 😀)

C'mon guy,,,,You know Chambers Street Builders, Inc. went into Watersound West Beach, built a model and earned a good return post haste in 2007.

200K-500K & 100K-200K according the county records. WB appears to be doing well on sales this year as discounts off 2005 prices are pushing 45%. Everyone in there that purchased between 2003-2007 lost money. (But hey, they can probably afford it. 😀)

So, if I buy a $100k lot in Watersound West and build a 2,000 SF home on it for $300k, I have a $400k package. Does the resale market generally offer a 2,000 SF home for $400k located south of 30a in a top notch development?

This is a moving target because lot prices seem to still be in decline and we are currently experiencing deflationary commodity prices so the cost of lumber, shingles, sheetrock, etc should continue to decrease. Given the ugliness in labor markets, one could conclude that there will be decreases in labor rates. It does not appear that a 30a rally is around the corner.

So, if I buy a $100k lot in Watersound West and build a 2,000 SF home on it for $300k, I have a $400k package. Does the resale market generally offer a 2,000 SF home for $400k located south of 30a in a top notch development?

This is a moving target because lot prices seem to still be in decline and we are currently experiencing deflationary commodity prices so the cost of lumber, shingles, sheetrock, etc should continue to decrease. Given the ugliness in labor markets, one could conclude that there will be decreases in labor rates. It does not appear that a 30a rally is around the corner.

We built in Watersound West Beach so I think we're qualified to say that a person could buy a lot in the Cottage District from JOE. Maybe Lot 100 or 104 for + or - $290,000 with gulf and lake views. You may get approved plans for $5,000. You may get a Watersound Beach Club Membership for $5,000. You may get some Golf Priveleges for Origins, Camp Creek and Wild Heron. You may get a certificate to be used to pay your HOA dues for 2 years. You could build a beautiful pre-approved Dungan Nequette home with 4 beds, 2400 sq. ft. for $375,000. The whole process from Lot purchase to move in could take less than 4 months. Most appraisers would more than likely say the home is worth $835,000 on either of those lots.

A person could buy a lot in the Cottage District of Watersound West Beach, say 31 or 32, 43 or 44, 53 or 54, 65 or 66 for about $165,000. They may get all the same perks as above. Maybe they'd build the pre-approved Cooper Robertson plans with 4 beds, 4 baths and 2,400 square feet. That home would cost about the same and takes 4 months start to finish.

I think it's a fascinating transaction in this most strange point in the cycle.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics produces the PPI which is a good source of commodity price trends. Link is to page that allows you to select lumber, or whatever and then you can select a table and graph of lumber prices.

http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?wp

The Bureau of Labor Statistics produces the PPI which is a good source of commodity price trends. Link is to page that allows you to select lumber, or whatever and then you can select a table and graph of lumber prices.

http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?wp

Another informative post, Thanks

It's important to note that from where I sit South Walton County has an abherrant micro-economy. A good example can be shown by builders having materials delivered, even common lumber, from companies outside the geographic area. We buy Cypress through Mobile, AL and I've seen Regal Stephens taking lumber deliveries from Alabama as well.

C'mon guy,,,,You know Chambers Street Builders, Inc. went into Watersound West Beach, built a model and earned a good return post haste in 2007.

I was refering to long term owners, not investors who can build a house at cost. You are a special case. 😀

We built in Watersound West Beach so I think we're qualified to say that a person could buy a lot in the Cottage District from JOE. Maybe Lot 100 or 104 for + or - $290,000 with gulf and lake views. You may get approved plans for $5,000. You may get a Watersound Beach Club Membership for $5,000. You may get some Golf Priveleges for Origins, Camp Creek and Wild Heron. You may get a certificate to be used to pay your HOA dues for 2 years. You could build a beautiful pre-approved Dungan Nequette home with 4 beds, 2400 sq. ft. for $375,000. The whole process from Lot purchase to move in could take less than 4 months. Most appraisers would more than likely say the home is worth $835,000 on either of those lots.

A person could buy a lot in the Cottage District of Watersound West Beach, say 31 or 32, 43 or 44, 53 or 54, 65 or 66 for about $165,000. They may get all the same perks as above. Maybe they'd build the pre-approved Cooper Robertson plans with 4 beds, 4 baths and 2,400 square feet. That home would cost about the same and takes 4 months start to finish.

I think it's a fascinating transaction in this most strange point in the cycle.

I'm not sure I know what the Cottage District is. Watersound West Beach is that community west of Watersound Beach that lacks direct beach access correct? Where is the Cottage District? Is that the upper, easterly area of Watersound Beach?

I'm not sure I know what the Cottage District is. Watersound West Beach is that community west of Watersound Beach that lacks direct beach access correct? Where is the Cottage District? Is that the upper, easterly area of Watersound Beach?

Watersound West Beach does have direct beach access. The Cottage district stretches the length of the community starting at the main entrance, continuing along the Northerly border and then bifurcates to the Pool Cottage District. Lot 100 and Lot 104 are Pool Cottage District lots that JOE has aggressively priced. They are Gulf and Lake View Lots. JOE wants your business and in this case I think they deserve it. I'll attach a picture of the pool that sits at the beginning of the beach access. I'll attach a PDF of the West Beach Community too.

This JOE community is a sleeper. I don't know any developed communities that can compete on price.

Watersound West Beach does have direct beach access. The Cottage district stretches the length of the community starting at the main entrance, continuing along the Northerly border and then bifurcates to the Pool Cottage District. Lot 100 and Lot 104 are Pool Cottage District lots that JOE has aggressively priced. They are Gulf and Lake View Lots. JOE wants your business and in this case I think they deserve it. I'll attach a picture of the pool that sits at the beginning of the beach access. I'll attach a PDF of the West Beach Community too.

This JOE community is a sleeper. I don't know any developed communities that can compete on price.

AA, I know you've got a bucket truck have you been up in it in WSWB to see if Gulf views are actually possible? It just seems like a stretch considering the distance to the Gulf even from the closest lot.

AA, I know you've got a bucket truck have you been up in it in WSWB to see if Gulf views are actually possible? It just seems like a stretch considering the distance to the Gulf even from the closest lot.

The house I built on the pool was a two story Cooper Robertson Plan. It had lake and gulf views.