To buy or not?

Hey PK-
It's MLS# 379111 in Seacrest. Thanks for asking.

I am an owner at Seacrest Beach.

I have seen large lots west of Alys Beach with ask prices in the $500's with gulfviews and less than 100 yards walk to the sand.

Considering 12-18 months ago people we're buying these in the $600's and $700's I would call that a deal. No?

Where? I haven't seen any lots with the above description for that price.

Where? I haven't seen any lots with the above description for that price.

Second lot in on the left on Brenda Lane listed at $599K.

First lot on right listed at $749K and lot across (second on right) sold for $618k about 12 months ago-now has new house on it that was listed at $1,599,000. All other lots listed way far back all above $600k.

I didn't mean to imply there are tons of deals, but there are a few.

List prices don't mean what they used to either. Sellers are willing to deal.

The problem with Brenda Lane is that there is no sewer so septic tanks are required. That is a turn off to a lot of buyers because it restricts footprint of house and pool.

Speaking of the east end of 30-A....did you guys know that Alys Beach has purchased a 10 acre (???? not sure of size) Gulf front lot in Inlet Beach? I was down there a few weeks ago and saw the Alys Beach sign on the property. Does anyone know what their plans are?

The problem with Brenda Lane is that there is no sewer so septic tanks are required. That is a turn off to a lot of buyers because it restricts footprint of house and pool.

The house that was buillt on the second lot on the right is huge (around 4,000 sf I think) and has a pool too I believe. Shouldn't cut into the property that much. I think all of those lots are the same size 85x161.

I wouldn't think sewer is too hard to get. It must be along the ROW of 30A. It might just cost the owner a little to extend it.

I think we're on the other side of the peak and the deals are just beginning to hit the market. Those who've bought at the top aren't going to be able to deal as much as those who've bought a year or more ago. But as taxes come due, easy money dries up, condos start to flood the market, we head into another hurricane season, and real estate investing reverts to the mean and loses its appeal, buyers with time and cash will be in the drivers seat.

The house that was buillt on the second lot on the right is huge (around 4,000 sf I think) and has a pool too I believe. Shouldn't cut into the property that much. I think all of those lots are the same size 85x161.

I wouldn't think sewer is too hard to get. It must be along the ROW of 30A. It might just cost the owner a little to extend it.

You are right--the closer-to-30A-lots can put sewer in by tapping into the mains on 30A. It will be very expensive for the back lots though. One of the back lots also has wetlands and that brings up the issue of DEP permitting, etc.

Be careful when a "deal" seems too good to be true. There is a .90 acre lot on Seacrest Drive on the market for $700,000, but the entire lot is wet according to the Walton County GIS. It is completely unbuildable.

I still wouldn't consider a lot at $599,999 a "deal." Many of the lots in the Sand Cliffs/Camp Creek area have no build out times and no or very low home owner's association fees. Many of the lots were purchased years ago for less than $50,000 and the owners are in no hurry to sell because they have no mortgage, etc. The entire area is a little over priced.

You are right--the closer-to-30A-lots can put sewer in by tapping into the mains on 30A. It will be very expensive for the back lots though. One of the back lots also has wetlands and that brings up the issue of DEP permitting, etc.

Be careful when a "deal" seems too good to be true. There is a .90 acre lot on Seacrest Drive on the market for $700,000, but the entire lot is wet according to the Walton County GIS. It is completely unbuildable.

I still wouldn't consider a lot at $599,999 a "deal." Many of the lots in the Sand Cliffs/Camp Creek area have no build out times and no or very low home owner's association fees. Many of the lots were purchased years ago for less than $50,000 and the owners are in no hurry to sell because they have no mortgage, etc. The entire area is a little over priced.

It's always good to have an environmental study done on a lot just in case. Should only run about $300 to make sure it's not "wet" if the lot's wooded and you can't tell for sure.

As for owners who purchased years ago at dirt cheap prices, that should be irrelevant when evaluating a deal. Today's sales comps and future growth potential of an area are the most compelling indicators.

Hans-what a great question!

I can not give a yes or no answer to your question since it would depend on the type of property and its location.

In comparison to last Spring there are some good buys out there. However, it is a difficult time to buy because there is such a big selection of properties available. It is also problematic because you have to be able to figure out which property has the most potential in a fast evolving market. That is not easy because ?times are a changing? which will affect the future value of the property in unknown ways.

I can not predict what the market will do in the future but we do know that there are a lot of people retiring everyday and the most popular place to retire is in the south and along the coast. I can give you some guidelines to help find the ?best buys? based on my experience living here for almost 10 years.


We seem to be in the process of a significant PARADIGM SHIFT in thinking about all coastal areas due to the reality check / wake up call that the hurricanes disasters have provided this summer. All of us living here or who were planning to move to the coast are currently in the process of coping, adapting and adjusting and basically sorting it all out. Currently this is a significant factor affecting the real estate market.

This new paradigm will be determined by the lessons the storms taught us. The major contributor to all the structural damage along the coast was due to storm surge, building too close to the beach, not building a structure designed to meet the rigors of coastal living, and building on low ground.

Based on this new emerging paradigm I would EXCLUDE the following (with exceptions of course) from my shopping list:

1. Most wood buildings constructed before 2002 when the hurricane building codes were significantly tightened.


2. All buildings stick built prior to the post hurricane Andrew building code upgrades in first half of 1990s.

3. Most frame buildings build right on the Gulf.


4. No stick built building with stucco-I have seen too many horror stories of such houses/condos rotting and being eaten by termites from the inside out-I suspect that more $ damage has been caused by water intrusion here on 30A than any hurricane we have had here in recent memory. Also note that water intrusion problems are not limited to stucco.

5. No property that is much less than about 30 feet above sea level.

6. No Gulf coast property east of Panama City and west of Pensacola.
Katrina had a storm surge of approximately 28 feet, but keep in mind that areas such as Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and even the areas east of Panama City such as Mexico Beach and Appalachicola Bay are more prone to storm surge. The shallow water and gradual slope of the sea floor in those areas acts as a launching ramp for storm surge. The west end of Panama city Beach to Pensacola has deeper water and are less vulnerable to storm surge.

7. Due to the inherent uncertainties in such a time of transition I would not consider any property with a build out time unless I wanted to build now.

8. I would not buy anything directly on the Gulf due to their unacceptable constant exposure and vulnerability to wind and wave and erosion.

Based on this new paradigm the following coastal properties would be predicted to have the greatest potential value.

In fact, if any of you own one of these prime properties you should consider keeping it off /or taking it off the market now since in this current market their value may not yet be fully appreciated and you would probably be selling it too cheap.

1. High ground at least 30 feet above sea level which fortunately 30A has more of than most anywhere in any southern coastal region. However even on 30A that would eliminate most areas around coastal lakes (and unfortunately most of Grayton Beach and Eastern and Western Lakes etc.) and of course Dune Allen.


2. I basically agree with ?GreenWaveDave? above who said: ?Bottom line is anything ( well not anything-has to meet the other criteria listed here too) a short walk to the gulf, in a good location on 30A and with a Gulf View will be a great investment for years to come.?

3. I would want a house that was built to the new codes since 2002, but preferably I would want to have my own house built and watch closely how they build it.

4. I would want to buy in a development where there are some protective covenants but not to a pedantic extremes that require frivolous expenses. I would also want to chose my own builder.

5. As ?Bob? said previously(the number 6 posting Dec 4 at 11am), I would also prefer anywhere on 30A but add that the property would have to meet the above criteria.

I would tend to essentially agree with much of what ?OKon30A? (the Dec. 3 post only) previously posted in this thread. I would add that now may be a good time to buy because there is such a great selection and if you wait too long the smart buyers who have figured out the ?new paradigm? will have already picked over and bought the most desirable properties .



I look forward to hearing your relevant input .

ecopal, do you also own a home in Pensacola???

SJ: No Why do you ask?

...can not predict what the market will do in the future but we do know that there are a lot of people retiring everyday and the most popular place to retire is in the south and along the coast. I can give you some guidelines to help find the ?best buys? based on my experience living here for almost 10 year...


I agree about the baby boom retirees still wanting to move to Florida. In our nice old midwest neighborhood, we lose retirees to Florida every year as a second home or to complete move there. I don't hear of many people going to the Panhandle and 30A area, though, because they don't know about it. If they did, I think they'd seriously consider moving there as well or at least getting second homes there. Some of my friends' parents have bought homes in Florida in the past few years. So, visibility of this area would have to pick up outside of the Southeastern U.S. (such as more visibility in the midwest). Word is spreading in our town slowly (very slowy). For example, I heard of the area from a neighbor who had a home there and loved it. So, retirees who want an upscale "simple life" with many of the conveniences of a busier area but with none of the hassles, this would be a perfect fit.

Of course, some may wait a few years to figure out what this past year's storms are telling us. My feeling is that the storms are telling us to build/buy according to the criteria listed above if at all possible and that we're in the middle of a cyclical period of more storms and storms for a while at least may be stronger. But, that's going to be the case anywhere in Florida and S.E. coastal areas, so at least much of this area is on higher ground.

SJ: No Why do you ask?

just curious.

... In our nice old midwest neighborhood, we lose retirees to Florida every year as a second home or to complete move there. I don't hear of many people going to the Panhandle and 30A area, though, because they don't know about it. If they did, I think they'd seriously consider moving there as well or at least getting second homes there.

Yet another reason why it's still time to buy.....

It's just a matter of time before EVERYONE knows and is able to easily get to 30A (e.g. new PC airport).
Look at how much property values have gone up since people have started to "know" about 30A. We've just scratched the surface on notariety, awareness, and appreciation for the area. A $599,000 lot on the north side of 30A with a gulf view would go for more like $2,000,000 + in areas of SW FL like Naples and Sarasota. People from all over didn't always know about those places either, but now everyone sure does and as a result it's too late for many people to afford that kind of property (and the people who got in early and bought at the right time are now sitting pretty!).

Definitely still time to buy!

Re: Sooo.....To buy or not?

Sooooo......that's the good advice I've got here.

1. Locate 30 ft. above the sea, but not on the waterfront, within a short walk there.

2. Preferrably build yourself, on a lot with no build-out terms. Failing this, buy a place of recent construction which does not include stick and stucco construction and is certified to comply with regulations.

3 And all this only if I were to locate here.... :clap_1: :clap_1: or be investing for the long term.

I thank all for their sage advice, especially "Kurt" for his concise and "ecopal" for his expansive advice. How nice,... to be able to draw on the experience and help of this community.

Hans.

And get a really good construction company. When we first got onto 30A, we heard that things were going up so quickly that some buildings weren't as well made as others. I don't know if that's true, but you want to find out who the really good contractors are.

And get a really good construction company. When we first got onto 30A, we heard that things were going up so quickly that some buildings weren't as well made as others. I don't know if that's true, but you want to find out who the really good contractors are.

It's not only true, in situations like SoWal's it is unavoidable. Paula makes a good point. If you want to build, get on a waiting list for a good builder if you have to. Don't make things harder on yourself by rushing.

Re: Sooo.....To buy or not?

Sooooo......that's the good advice I've got here.

1. Locate 30 ft. above the sea, but not on the waterfront, within a short walk there.

2. Preferrably build yourself, on a lot with no build-out terms. Failing this, buy a place of recent construction which does not include stick and stucco construction and is certified to comply with regulations.

3 And all this only if I were to locate here.... :clap_1: :clap_1: or be investing for the long term.

I thank all for their sage advice, especially "Kurt" for his concise and "ecopal" for his expansive advice. How nice,... to be able to draw on the experience and help of this community.

Hans.

Get the time machine from Napoleon Dynamite and buy your land in 1955.

Re: Sooo.....To buy or not?

Get the time machine from Napoleon Dynamite and buy your land in 1955.

Heck, why tie up the money that long. Roll back to 1998.

Re: Sooo.....To buy or not?

Heck, why tie up the money that long. Roll back to 1998.

Or better yet...don't tie up any $$$$ at all and save the headaches and heartaches of taxes, HOA, insurance, etc., etc.--just rent for a couple of weeks here when it strikes your fancy and let the landlord deal with all the dirty details. In between visits, go see the rest of the world. Live free...live well...die broke!

Another problem with stucco, both synthetic and 'real', is that it takes a certain skill level to apply it properly. And if it isn't applied properly, you get water from a sprinkler or a normal rainstorm getting through cracks in the stucco, and then stuck next to wood frame, where it will rot over time.

Synthetic stucco particularly has a bad reputation for this, bad enough that the standard real estate disclosure form in these parts has a line about synthetic stucco just like there's a line for hurricane damage and polybutelene plumbing.

Not so much of a problem with concrete block construction because you don't have the rotting aspect, but you still want it carefully applied to prevent water trapping.