ECAR data from Jan 99 to Sept 08

Inventory -

Sales -

Average discount off list for sales -

Average sale value -

Average price per square foot of sales -

2006 - 2008 sales volume comparison, single family detached -

If anybody wants to see anything else out of Josh's data, just let me know.

Hey Josh, what's "median sold $" and "Average DOM %"?

Thanx!

Shel.

For clarification, are you posting numbers from all of ECAR's areas, which include Ft Walton, Crestview, Defuniak, Freeport, South Walton, Destin, etc?

If anybody wants to see anything else out of Josh's data, just let me know.

Hey Josh, what's "median sold $" and "Average DOM %"?

Does he have a graph comparing the number of banks willing to write goofball mortgages from 2004 to today?;-)

Does he have a graph comparing the number of banks willing to write goofball mortgages from 2004 to today?;-)

For clarification, are you posting numbers from all of ECAR's areas, which include Ft Walton, Crestview, Defuniak, Freeport, South Walton, Destin, etc?

I'll leave it to Josh to clarify but according to his blog the data includes "areas 14,15,16,17,18"?

I'll leave it to Josh to clarify but according to his blog the data includes "areas 14,15,16,17,18"?

That would be only Destin and South Walton, with all of Pt Washington area being excluded.

That would be only Destin and South Walton, with all of Pt Washington area being excluded.

Would it include Sandestin?

Sandestin is included in area 15.

Please post the median value graph. Thanks.

Please post the median value graph. Thanks.

This could easily overshoot 99, don't you think?

This could easily overshoot 99, don't you think?

I think it would be interesting to see the average and median sales price of raw lots. I believe this info would give you the best indication of how far prices of SFH's have to go.

Real estate values from 2000 and 2001 seem about correct to me for the next 5 years. Any more than this and we are living off hype, not fundamentals.

Single Family Homes Median
Rosemary Beach south side 1.3
Rosemary Beach park side 675
Watercolor Phase I 1.3
Watercolor Phase III 750
Seaside 940
Watersound Beach Phase I 2.0
Watersound Beach Other 1.2
Watersound West Beach 675
Seacrest Beach 525
Draper 625

I think it would be interesting to see the average and median sales price of raw lots. I believe this info would give you the best indication of how far prices of SFH's have to go.

I agree. Is this info available?

So long as vacant land is readily available for purchase at a huge discount, I don't see anything supporting home values. Many sellers I would guess will just sit on their homes, enjoy the rental income stream and go to SoWal for a couple of weeks per year but for motivated sellers it seems values have a long ways to fall.

SoWal can be a tricky market to figure out due to the high number of investment property owners but on the commercial side, it is not unusual during a downturn for values to fall well below replacement cost. Ask Sam Zell.

I am moving to SoWal late this year and will be renting unless there is a surprise in the raw lot sales price trends.

I agree. Is this info available?

So long as vacant land is readily available for purchase at a huge discount, I don't see anything supporting home values. Many sellers I would guess will just sit on their homes, enjoy the rental income stream and go to SoWal for a couple of weeks per year but for motivated sellers it seems values have a long ways to fall.

SoWal can be a tricky market to figure out due to the high number of investment property owners but on the commercial side, it is not unusual during a downturn for values to fall well below replacement cost. Ask Sam Zell.

I am moving to SoWal late this year and will be renting unless there is a surprise in the raw lot sales price trends.

What do you know about Sam Zell? Sounds like he's doin' pretty well to me.

What do you know about Sam Zell? Sounds like he's doin' pretty well to me.

My background is in commercial/corporate real estate.

Zell is the master bottom fisher. He has been frequently used as proof that the bottom has been put in.

My background is in commercial/corporate real estate.

Zell is the master bottom fisher. He has been frequently used as proof that the bottom has been put in.

I've become a cynic (and an "egg"noraemus according to Cracker Barrel). I assumed your comment was a dig at Sam Zell. I need to watch an Arrested Development Commercial free marathon to replenish my virtue.

A friend of mine, who is much smarter than, I is the CEO for a company owned by Zell, et al. It sounds so far like Zell is my kind of guy. Peace.

This could easily overshoot 99, don't you think?

Not at all. There is no way in hell that I think that half of the single family home sales in South Walton and Destin, excluding Pt Washington, will be less than $210,000. Not even for Pt Washington alone, would that be the case, unless there isn't enough sample data. eg- having only one or two sales in a given month, one of which is less than $210,000.

Not at all. There is no way in hell that I think that half of the single family home sales in South Walton and Destin, excluding Pt Washington, will be less than $210,000. Not even for Pt Washington alone, would that be the case, unless there isn't enough sample data. eg- having only one or two sales in a given month, one of which is less than $210,000.

I agree actually, overshooting 99 - 01 is not likely. Landing there is however. About the only good news I can pull out of these graphs is that peak to trough, the area has already experienced a declined 40% off the peak. I believe that's higher than the national average.