Real Estate Supply

to those of you that are agents (I don't know which of you are...), it seems that the lot supply has tightened up a bit on 30-a...are you seeing this in your own businesses?...the number of lots available seems to have gone down by about 20%...what are you seeing?...red

Maybe the listings are expiring, because the lots have not been selling at that rate. Maybe people are finally catching up on Economics 101 and realizing the supply and demand relationship. My guess is that most Realtors have been on vacation and have not kept up their listings over the last couple of weeks, thereby allowing them to expire.

Realtors who know their stuff are having great difficulty convincing owners that if they want to move their properties the asking prices have got to come down. But property owners who have come to believe the rhetoric dished up by the RE industry that real estate can go nowhere but up now believe realtors who try to convince them otherwise are incompetent and lazy. With owners unwilling to budge on prices and buyers not willing to buy in at the top, the industry kind of dug a hole for itself that will temporarily stagnate sales and increase inventory of high-end (and high priced) properties.

In some cases contracts are expiring (and owners are POed at their realtors and visa-versa), some are pulling the properties in order to re-list closer to tourist season, and others will pull and re-list later at a lower price as a "new listing" to avoid the dreaded "reduced price" banner.

If you think real estate supply is dwindling, just walk into any real estate office and say you want to buy any type of property--they'll be all over you like an SUV salesman at a GM dealership.

Sadly, I disagree but am disinterested in an argument...the reason for the post was to find out from the realtors if r/e closings are picking up...I do not believe they are lazy, incompetent and i own an SUV that was a joy to buy...Red

Well put "Redfisher". The "bears" really take every opportunity to growl out there. Can't we all be a bit more positive in '06?

My business has picked up a lot in the last 10 days. I did not go on vacation! :clap_1:

Yesterday, there were 322 expired listings (all types) in the area. Six listings were extended. Four listings changed price, and ten properties were listed. There were no properties sold yesterday, obviously because it was Sunday and a Holiday, but more listings are expiring than are being sold and newly listed, so the inventory may indeed be decreasing. I am uncertain of the reason for the large numbers of expired listings yesterday, but the number is not typical of most days.

I suspect that there are a good number of not terribly motivated sellers out there. They figure if they can get price X for their property it's worth it to take the profit and sell, but if they can only get price Y, then they might as well hold on to it for a while yet, enjoy the property, and see how it goes.

If someone does not need to sell their 30A property it might be best to take it off the market for a while. We are obviously in a buyers market with considerable over supply in many areas and property categories, and particular price ranges.

Property flippers that have to sell will be lowering their prices in desperation just to cut their losses. This is especially true for lots with build out deadlines and many preconstruction condos. Until those properties are sold off it will be very difficult to get a decent price even for prime 30A property.

There may be some good buying opportunites for the savvy buyer. But it is not a good time to be selling if you don't have to.

The new airport going in and the surge of baby boomers retiring will only be bullish for the area. 30A is one of the nicest and most unique coastal areas available anywhere and is still a bargain even at these prices.

If someone does not need to sell their 30A property it might be best to take it off the market for a while. We are obviously in a buyers market with considerable over supply in many areas and property categories, and particular price ranges.

Property flippers that have to sell will be lowering their prices in desperation just to cut their losses. This is especially true for lots with build out deadlines and many preconstruction condos. Until those properties are sold off it will be very difficult to get a decent price even for prime 30A property.

There may be some good buying opportunites for the savvy buyer. But it is not a good time to be selling if you don't have to.

The new airport going in and the surge of baby boomers retiring will only be bullish for the area. 30A is one of the nicest and most unique coastal areas available anywhere and is still a bargain even at these prices.

Exactly. I wish the people who really don't care if they sell would take their properties off the market. That would help the overall picture, though I think regardless it will be two years or so before things balance out. The main problem is that the new realtors that have flooded the market aren't going to tell them that. :roll: Maybe sellers are starting to figure it out?

I suspect a lot of "listings" are going underground; meaning that since 1 out of every 3 people in the county has a realtor's license and the other 2 know at least 5 people who do, sellers will start to rely on "word of mouth" sales (it saves on having to post signs and blowing up balloons for open houses).

While it's true that a lot of people can afford to keep their properties off the market, and continue paying the carrying costs, they're a little disappointed that the real estate investment they made in 2005 won't be the 20%+ cash cow they had hoped for.

And then there's the pre-construction condo mortgage conundrum yet to come:
Financing the Flip

I'm up here in moderately cold Louisville trying to keep my eye on the market on 30A. Right now, in my estimation, it's like trying to put a fair value on so many tech stocks in April of 2000. Coming on the heels of quadruple gains in two and three year periods and facing a glut of sellers and very few buyers, it is hard to peg the market on a particular piece. I think it's correcting maybe even moderate bursting. Just my humble opinion.

By the way, great site, many thoughtful posts. Seems like quite a bit of tension. You guys know each other? Sounds like a family reunion at times, in a fun way.

By the way, great site, many thoughtful posts. Seems like quite a bit of tension. You guys know each other? Sounds like a family reunion at times, in a fun way.

Very few of us know each other away from the boards. Even fewer have met while in SoWal. Some have even been lucky enough to meet Smiling JOe and kurt.


BTW.... Sueshore thinks you are cute

I'm up here in moderately cold Louisville trying to keep my eye on the market on 30A. Right now, in my estimation, it's like trying to put a fair value on so many tech stocks in April of 2000. Coming on the heels of quadruple gains in two and three year periods and facing a glut of sellers and very few buyers, it is hard to peg the market on a particular piece. I think it's correcting maybe even moderate bursting. Just my humble opinion.

By the way, great site, many thoughtful posts. Seems like quite a bit of tension. You guys know each other? Sounds like a family reunion at times, in a fun way.

I "know" nobody here -- well, over a year ago I got a nice neighborly phone call from someoone that I found out later is a regular poster here -- but hang out here enough and the personalities become pretty clear. I agree this is a great place for real estate info, hurricane freak-out sessions and general info about SoWal. In the lounge, people are silly and funny, and many of the regulars have met each other. There are a few people I plan to look up next time I am up there.

I agree with your assessment of the market, and I am glad that I don't feel pressure to sell. For buyers, I think it's a great time to get in. If I were on the hunt, I might even try SHELLY's business card trick. ;-)

I'm up here in moderately cold Louisville trying to keep my eye on the market on 30A. Right now, in my estimation, it's like trying to put a fair value on so many tech stocks in April of 2000. Coming on the heels of quadruple gains in two and three year periods and facing a glut of sellers and very few buyers, it is hard to peg the market on a particular piece. I think it's correcting maybe even moderate bursting. Just my humble opinion.

By the way, great site, many thoughtful posts. Seems like quite a bit of tension. You guys know each other? Sounds like a family reunion at times, in a fun way.

Oops! You must spell FUNN with 2 N's! Rule #1.

The Funns love all. We usually don't have anything of substance to say, but we like to keep all the stiffs loosened up!

More than anything else, negativity is hurting the RE market. Sure there's some truth in what we're hearing in the media. The markets, especially the coasts, was getting frothy from speculation. But there is a point where its just piling on and making the problem bigger than it is. A potential buyer is probably going to ruminate over what he's just heard or read. Even if he doesn't totally buy into the bubble, he's going to believe that a lot of other people are going to buy the bubble and he's not going to want to jump in when "everybody" else is jumping out. Why not be a vulture and swoop in when the multitudes are fleeing?

I believe that all this shall pass when the media has something else more important to start talking about. (Like remember when Chandra Levy and Gary Condit was the most important thing in the universe until 9/11?) A couple seasons without a major hurricane and more positive news like we heard today from the Fed will make all the difference in the world. The beach dream is not going away. In the end, prices will resume their growth - all its going to take is positivity replacing negativity - because the beach is still the beach and most people want a piece of it. PCB might look like its swimming in condos now, but 10 years down the road when tourists are flying in from Europe to buy them, they'll be hot commodities again - hotter than they were last spring, because the pool of buyers will be much, much higher and the water will be gone.

And isn't there a risk in waiting - even if prices were to dip? Suppose that interest rates did rise rather dramatically? Assuming that one was financing the dream and planning on actually using it, couldn't any savings from price reductions be cancelled out (and maybe then some) by dramatically higher interest rates? I wouldn't blame anybody for being prudent in today's environment, but prudence could turn into folly if nothing ever looks "worth it" until everybody else thinks so.

Time passes quickly and very few things, outside of some mass produced consumer goods, get cheaper over the long haul.

beclareesq! Our market will fair just fine..good thoughts!

Now there's the positive attitude I've been looking for. Bravo!

I couldn't agree with you more WiLe on the impact of the media (good and bad). You're right, there will be a new topic for the media to start drumming up negative sentiment about soon and in the meantime coastal RE prices will continue to go up and people will miss out on good buying opportunities if they don't wake up in time.

SoWAl is still a relative bargain. Anyone familiar with other coastal markets around the country will certainly agree.

beclareesq! Our market will fair just fine..good thoughts!

Thanks..I agree that in the long run the area will always be desireable and thrive. The feel of 30A is different from any other coastal spot we've been to.

I don't think the market has reacted to media negativity as much as it has responded to too much development and appreciation that is too good to be true. Just traditional market forces. That old willing buyer and willing seller getting together.

I don't think the market has reacted to media negativity as much as it has responded to too much development and appreciation that is too good to be true. Just traditional market forces. That old willing buyer and willing seller getting together.

When that ole willing buyer is watching TV on saturday morning while he's getting dressed to meet that willing seller and he happens to have the channel on a news program who's subject for today is the bubble, the buyer is influenced negatively - at least as far as the willing seller is concerned. Repeat this over and over "times millions" and this can't help but have a negative affect on the market. The 24 hour news cycle that we have today where they have to come up with something to interest and entertain the masses has all kinds of implications. The media can do amazing things. It can have us thinking the world is coming to an end or everything is coming up roses and, to our detriment, they often make the decision which side to take based on either their worldview or whatever they think we'll move us to watch them instead of Channel 3.

I know I pay attention when I hear:

IS REAL ESTATE IN A BUBBLE? - FIND OUT AT 10 ON MSNBC!!!

I didn't even have to tune in to hear the world bubble. Gosh, I was discussing the bubble in the post office line this morning - and several times since then. All this talk, talk, talk is detrimental to real estate. One day, again, it won't dominate the news and each deal will be judged on its own merits instead of media slant.

Here's my take on the real estate market

- If you're living in a home, and are not leveraged to the teeth, you're going to be just fine

- If you've owned a vacation/rental property for several years with a manageable mortgage and can handle the increased taxes, insurance and other carry costs, you're going to be just fine

- If you bought an investment property in the last year at sky-high prices with an exotic mortgage (leveraged to the hilt), figured on double-digit appreciation, and believe you will make a profit after carrying costs by renting it out, you're going to be severely disappointed.

- If you bought into pre-construction condos that will be complete in 2006/2007 and expect to flip them for a bunch of money--you're going to get screwed.

Areas with the highest and fastest appreciation will fall the fastest and the furthest (Florida condos come to mind). If you're looking for a homestead, I see no problems getting into the market now. Investment property is a whole different ballgame; the days of double digit appreciation and "flipping for fun and profit" are pretty much history. If the stock market takes off (like it did today), real estate will fall even faster as investors turn their back on and move out of real estate (whose illiquidity is a drag on one's portfolio). If you want to own more RE than your primary residence and a second home, there are other areas in the real estate game which are better investment plays than gambling on pre-construction condo flips (commercial or self-storage REITs come to mind).

Personally speaking, not a single one of my "boomer" friends, family, or acquaintances have expressed any desire to shell out $500,000+ to live in a 930sf concrete box in the middle of an SUV traffic jam.

I didn't even have to tune in to hear the world bubble. Gosh, I was discussing the bubble in the post office line this morning - and several times since then. All this talk, talk, talk is detrimental to real estate. One day, again, it won't dominate the news and each deal will be judged on its own merits instead of media slant.

IMO what the media is doing is trying to compensate for the screw-ups it made by hyping the dot-com frenzy. Economists back then were screaming "where's the fundamentals to back the soaring prices??!!" But the media just brushed them aside, saying it was "different this time" and "fundamentals don't count in this new age" and went right on their merry way inflating the tech bubble up to the breaking point and subsequent crash.

The media "bubble" hype is the antithesis of the realtors' "the boomers are coming" hype that created the current high, unsustainable real estate prices. The wise buyer will weigh both sides and see that the "right" price is somewhere in the middle--although realtors would prefer investors to have only one side of the story (that being the realtor's side).

Investors put a lot of blame on the media for the part they played in creating the tech bubble....as a result, the media is being overly cautious to avoid having their fingerprints on this train wreck.

Personally speaking, not a single one of my "boomer" friends, family, or acquaintances have expressed any desire to shell out $500,000+ to live in a 930sf concrete box in the middle of an SUV traffic jam.

If you're talking about high rise beach condos, its really rare for people to "live" in them. I found that out way back in 1995 when I moved into my first condo fulltime and found out we were the only one living there in November. After about three months living there my wife grew tired of getting on the elevator every time the dog had to be let out. We traded the house straight even for a beach house (on the lagoon here). I paid $169,900 for that condo (pre in 1993) which at the time was a huge price to pay and I was told it was too high to ever make anything out of it.

I don't know who your boomer friends are but my booming buddies would dearly LOVE a condo on the beach.

One day, again, it won't dominate the news and each deal will be judged on its own merits instead of media slant.

I just don't see why it's so hard to judge an individual deal on its own merits. But I guess to some people it is. I have a friend who is about to buy her first home. She is 35 and about to spend 110K (not in Florida), and she is freaking out. I am trying to help her without being critical. It all boils down to: What are the comps? What is the market doing? Can I afford it comfortably? Will I need to sell anytime soon? Is the house in good shape? Etc.

This is not rocket science. Really it's not. But as SHELLY so quickly reminds us, there are people who do these things without thinking or worrying about fundamentals. Anyone who does is an idiot, IMO. Especially after the dot-com bust.

Reading is fundamental. Flipping is not!!

IMO what the media is doing is trying to compensate for the screw-ups it made by hyping the dot-com frenzy. Economists back then were screaming "where's the fundamentals to back the soaring prices??!!" But the media just brushed them aside, saying it was "different this time" and "fundamentals don't count in this new age" and went right on their merry way inflating the tech bubble up to the breaking point and subsequent crash.

The media "bubble" hype is the antithesis of the realtors' "the boomers are coming" hype that created the current high, unsustainable real estate prices. The wise buyer will weigh both sides and see that the "right" price is somewhere in the middle--although realtors would prefer investors to have only one side of the story (that being the realtor's side).

Investors put a lot of blame on the media for the part they played in creating the tech bubble....as a result, the media is being overly cautious to avoid having their fingerprints on this train wreck.

I don't agree with your assessment. The media would have played the tech meltdown for all it was worth, if it hadn't have melted before they got around to exploiting it. By the time the media catches on to a "stock story" its an old story. That's not so with real estate because its illiquid and slow developing.

I will agree with you about weighing both sides, but prime real estate isn't a lot different from blue chip stocks, except that you can have more fun on the beach than reading your monthly brokerage report. Markets go up and markets go down. There's no absolute guarantees, but the odds are in favor of coastal property and odds are in favor that the migration towards the coasts will continue - at least as long as it still snows in Michigan.

I just don't see why it's so hard to judge an individual deal on its own merits. But I guess to some people it is. I have a friend who is about to buy her first home. She is 35 and about to spend 110K (not in Florida), and she is freaking out. I am trying to help her without being critical. It all boils down to: What are the comps? What is the market doing? Can I afford it comfortably? Will I need to sell anytime soon? Is the house in good shape?

The new way of thinking of one's "primary home" as an "investment" is the demon that haunts home ownership today. The "investment" tripe dished up by some in the RE and mortgage industry in an effort to keep bread on their tables would tend to freak any first-time buyer out. IMO being able to comfortably AFFORD the home (and all associated costs) and still have money left over to have a somewhat enjoyable life trumps many of the other arguments. Having peace of mind while living in a 900sf duplex sure beats sleepless nights and hiding from bill collectors in a 2300sf beach condo.

Keep trying to exorcise those "investment" demons out of her thinking when it comes to her primary residence. At the age of 35, getting into a piece of real estate she can afford with a low fixed mortgage is a good thing in any market.