Interview w/ St. Joe CEO

It does, doesn,t it. I should have left it the way it was as I am sure that he would agree with that statement.

From Paula: I had the same thought. So, if you post anything related to real estate or in response to Shelly (or anything else here), it could become a quotation (used in or out of context) in a thesis.

Thanks Paula, at least I know I'm not crazy for having this thought!!


I'm laughing hysterically at this entire discussion....perhaps we can call ourselves

"HOT BUTTON" GUINEA PIGS!!
or something guinea pigs....you guys are a lot more creative!

Love being in this research lab!! January has never been this much fun!!

I think I created a monster.

Maybe we should just close this one out, learn from our mistakes, and move on to a new thread.......

GreenWaveDave:

The topic is a very useful one. I have some Joe stock and am holding on to it. I have mutual funds that range from conservative to risky to balance the risk with Joe. And I own property that I love and will always love in SoWal so I'm emotionally as well as financially invested in the community.

I was concerned, though, that most real estate discussions are now being hijacked by one-track-negative thinking and it was getting hard to learn anything or build on each other's comments. I felt like one or two people were getting their thrills from "yanking our chains" (as we used to say growing up), so the discussions were getting increasingly tiresome rather than helpful. So, let's see if we can get back on track with this one because understanding Joe, as well as other real estate issues, can be very interesting and useful.

As for me, I'm hanging in there with Joe, in part, because I don't have too much invested -- just enough to make it interesting. I've read the book Green Empire and I felt it was cautiously optimistic about Joe in terms of Joe's impact on the environment (that was my read of it, someone else could have read it differently). I watch the analyst reports and they are all over the map regarding Joe, though most suggest holding on to stock (and I assume they know about the CEO selling shares). The analysts on Yahoo say "hold" or "buy" -- not sell. Schwab rates it poorly. Reuters says the average is "outperform" with "buy" and "hold". Standard and Poor gives it a "b" which is low-middle in their rankings.

Personally, I try to think long-term and not short-term. For example, I ask myself whether the active and powerful hurricane seasons are a long-term or short-term thing and does this make it bad for 30A or will it increase values on 30A because so much of the area is so high up on dunes. I assume people will continue to want to move to Florida and the coast, and they will be increasingly interested in places with high elevations. And, of course, I do my best to make the SoWal community the kind of community people want to buy into so that they, too, can enjoy "the good life".

So, thanks GreenWaveDave for starting this thread.

Speaking of the stock market, I already see the writing on the wall.....

Many of us (including Peter Rummel, JOE CEO) feel that much of the real estate slow down in '05 has been driven by the negative media frenzy. Well now I think the tide is going to turn.

It appears that the media has found it's new focus, which is being bullish on the stock market in '06. Watch, all you will see and hear about now is how great the stock market and economy look moving forward. Real Estate bashing will start to loose it's luster with the media and I think that in turn will do nothing but help ease unwarranted fear and uncertainty in the minds of potential real estate investors.

Speaking of the stock market, I already see the writing on the wall.....

Many of us (including Peter Rummel, JOE CEO) feel that much of the real estate slow down in '05 has been driven by the negative media frenzy. Well now I think the tide is going to turn.

It appears that the media has found it's new focus, which is being bullish on the stock market in '06. Watch, all you will see and hear about now is how great the stock market and economy look moving forward. Real Estate bashing will start to loose it's luster with the media and I think that in turn will do nothing but help ease unwarranted fear and uncertainty in the minds of potential real estate investors.

That could also cause much of the cash, which is sitting on the sidelines, to be invested in stocks, and could keep real estate at a flat line growth.

True..... I've seen real estate boom simultaneously with the stock market in certain areas, as many people just feel more confident and wealthier in general. They may look at their paper gains in the stock market and feel rich enough to go and buy more real estate. You're right though, some investors may go more toward whatever the hot investement of the day is.

GreenWaveDave:

The topic is a very useful one. I have some Joe stock and am holding on to it. As for me, I'm hanging in there with Joe, in part, because I don't have too much invested -- just enough to make it interesting. Personally, I try to think long-term and not short-term.

IMO:

JOE is a fairly decent company to hold long term. Much of JOE's "low hanging fruit" (beachfront) has been picked and previous earnings will be difficult if not impossible to meet or beat in the coming years. Developing the timber property into useable "affordable" housing won't be as easy or profitable.
(Clearing and selling beachfront lots in already established "high cost" areas with roads, facilities and infrastructure during a real estate boom was a no-brainer.)

Folks who chase double-digit returns will be moving out of real estate this year and into other investments (international or precious metals maybe?). I suspect some double-digit hopefuls are holding their stock until JOE reports earnings (@ early Feb)--if the company issues "not so good" guidance before the release, the speculators will dump and run and the stock will go down. JOE's YEARLY report (released with the quarterly) should look VERY good and you may see a pop (probably triggering some "short" covering) which may be a good opportunity to take some profits off the table before it retreats and flatlines later.

If you're holding long-term, JOE isn't a bad bet to hold as a real estate play in a well-diversified portfolio, but I don't see it ever matching the returns it enjoyed in the past year or so in the near term. (Some who've doubled (or more) on this stock, already took some profits off the table and are now playing with JOE's money.)

Again IMO.

Let's hope you're right, Shelly. I bought at 73 this summer, watched it go up to above 80, and then watched it go down to in the high 50s and now up into the 60s. My husband had Whole Foods for a while several years ago, then dumped it when it was going down thinking people weren't going to spend so much money on organic and specialty foods (figured the organic food thing was a passing trend). He sure wishes he held onto it (and we happily buy most of our fish and meat at Whole Foods). Anyway, if Joe tanks, I'll just be happy I'm diversified!

The CEO of Joe used to be a sr. exec. at Disney, so I figure he knows how to "create great places" (though I'm not a fan of Disney World -- never been there but probably will go sometime in the next 4 years or so with the kids).

The CEO of Joe used to be a sr. exec. at Disney, so I figure he knows how to "create great places" (though I'm not a fan of Disney World -- never been there but probably will go sometime in the next 4 years or so with the kids).

Not a very flattering comparision seeing that Disney has flatlined for the past two years.

Have you ever thought of putting a stop loss on your JOE "just in case" and use the loss for a write-off next year?

It sends negative signals to the unknowledgeable. Someone who puts in a 10 share trade. The majority of massive sales by CEO's and execs are pre-planned and certain stock price amounts or dates trigger the sale or purchase. I respect you thought on the RE market and I'd say you're more correct than not, however your stock knowledge is weak.

Insider selling by execs (with no insider buying) sends somewhat "negative" signals to shareholders that execs don't totally believe the information they are releasing to the public.

Not a very flattering comparision seeing that Disney has flatlined for the past two years.

Have you ever thought of putting a stop loss on your JOE "just in case" and use the loss for a write-off next year?

Agreed. I've thought about stop-loss but am also considering just riding it a while. We'll see. It's not that much money I have invested in Joe.

It sends negative signals to the unknowledgeable. Someone who puts in a 10 share trade. The majority of massive sales by CEO's and execs are pre-planned and certain stock price amounts or dates trigger the sale or purchase. I respect you thought on the RE market and I'd say you're more correct than not, however your stock knowledge is weak.

The CEO aside...when was the last time that ANY insider purchased shares of JOE, and how much did they purchase?

The CEO aside...when was the last time that ANY insider purchased shares of JOE, and how much did they purchase?

When you look at the 2 year chart of this stock, it is no surprise that no one has bought. It has had quite a run.

When you look at the 2 year chart of this stock, it is no surprise that no one has bought. It has had quite a run.

Chesapeake Energy has had quite a run too--and their insiders were (and still are) buying up shares.

Chesapeake Energy has had quite a run too--and their insiders were (and still are) buying up shares.

I am quite sure we could spend all day going back and forth talking about what insiders are buying and selling their stocks etc. It proves nothing.
You are right Shelly, St. Joe is a crap company, the CEO is a crook and anyone who owns property in SoWal is going to ultiamtely lose their shirt and go bankrupt. The earth is warming so seas are rising and all coastal property is going to be underwater. There will be 50 gazillion high condos along the Panhandle coast w/no one to buy or own. We are going to be invaded by Canada and become a socialist country. The stock market is going to crash sending tens of thousands to jump off of buildings to their early demise. Oh yeah, all property in SoWal will fall in value 90% over the next 6 months. Let's not forget about the national real estate bubble that is going to send the entire country into a depression. I believe I have covered everything that you are going to put in your "thesis". I can't wait to read it.

Regardless of what you think of Shelly (she is getting beat up by you people for simply having an opinion on the market--which is backed up be facts), it is not a good sign when all your insiders are selling rather than buying. It obviously means they feel the stock has peaked or nearly peaked in most cases.

You are right Shelly, St. Joe is a crap company, the CEO is a crook

Your words...certainly not mine.

The stock market is going to crash sending tens of thousands to jump off of buildings to their early demise. Oh yeah, all property in SoWal will fall in value 90% over the next 6 months. Let's not forget about the national real estate bubble that is going to send the entire country into a depression. I believe I have covered everything that you are going to put in your "thesis". I can't wait to read it.

According to Monty SoWal has already fallen 50-60%. More than a few people have asked for this to be substantiated with some sort of evidence. I find it more than a coincidence that Monty has yet to reply to those posts. He must be consulting with Shelly for some data.

Shelly is misguided with her stock knowledge i.e. gives an example of an unrelated company. But she may be on to something with her real estate opinion. You just have to look at MLS data...time on market, reduced asking prices as well as the end of s/d lots & condo projects selling out in hours, etc. Time will tell.

I am quite sure we could spend all day going back and forth talking about what insiders are buying and selling their stocks etc. It proves nothing.
You are right Shelly, St. Joe is a crap company, the CEO is a crook and anyone who owns property in SoWal is going to ultiamtely lose their shirt and go bankrupt. The earth is warming so seas are rising and all coastal property is going to be underwater. There will be 50 gazillion high condos along the Panhandle coast w/no one to buy or own. We are going to be invaded by Canada and become a socialist country. The stock market is going to crash sending tens of thousands to jump off of buildings to their early demise. Oh yeah, all property in SoWal will fall in value 90% over the next 6 months. Let's not forget about the national real estate bubble that is going to send the entire country into a depression. I believe I have covered everything that you are going to put in your "thesis". I can't wait to read it.

Shelly is misguided with her stock knowledge i.e. gives an example of an unrelated company.

(1) The example I gave was in reference to "insider buying" of stocks. Couldn't compare JOE's "non-insider" buying to other comparable companies since insiders in the real estate sector aren't buying their stock; they may be exhibiting a bit of puffery, but they're not stupid enough to put their own money on the line.

(2) Considering JOE's competitors (i.e., current panhandle property owners and investors) I'd say JOE will have the upper hand, in this buyer's market, to come down on price. Maybe owners of investment property in the panhandle should consider holding shares of JOE as a hedge.

According to Monty SoWal has already fallen 50-60%. More than a few people have asked for this to be substantiated with some sort of evidence. I find it more than a coincidence that Monty has yet to reply to those posts. He must be consulting with Shelly for some data.

Not hardly--50-60%??? Monty must be an "UBER Real Estate Bear."

Having said that...I think when this pre-construction condo thing comes to a head, the prices can very well "fall" 50% from the prices that investors "think" their condo is "worth." The ultimate buyer (if the investor gets lucky :funn: ) will never be able to explain to their banker why the condo that was "just closed" by the investor for $250,000 appreciated in value by 50% in a couple of hours.

The Wild West Days of Easy Money are grinding to a halt. With the Fed tightening the screws on banks' lending practices, many will learn that there really are risks associated with real estate investing.