State of SoWal Real Estate - Spring 2009

So if we really preferred one of the higher priced lots could my realtor approach the seller with the argument of other active listings' prices being much lower and therefore we are approaching this lot with that in mind? You are right in that I don't want to pay more than the neighbor... or the next guy! There is lien holder approval required on these lots and I understand that can be a lengthy process.

Naturally my realtor will need to give me recent sales. I suspect there won't be a lot to comp. in the last three months... or even six that would match current prices. I am the same as any buyer.... I want to be smart about my investment and feel confident in the transaction.

I appreciate your input and look forward to other opinions... thanks!

On a side note... are you the same surfing enthusiast that writes editorials for the 30-A Review?

I strongly encourage you to use only sales comps as reference points to current value. Most properties on the market today are overpriced. BTW, that is true of all markets not just SoWal. It is understandably difficult for sellers in this market to come to terms with current realities.

Listed properties only tell you what price points are not selling. Get the most recent comps you can identify and then compare/adjust resales in other neighborhoods.

So if we really preferred one of the higher priced lots could my realtor approach the seller with the argument of other active listings' prices being much lower and therefore we are approaching this lot with that in mind? You are right in that I don't want to pay more than the neighbor... or the next guy! There is lien holder approval required on these lots and I understand that can be a lengthy process.

Naturally my realtor will need to give me recent sales. I suspect there won't be a lot to comp. in the last three months... or even six that would match current prices. I am the same as any buyer.... I want to be smart about my investment and feel confident in the transaction.

I appreciate your input and look forward to other opinions... thanks!

On a side note... are you the same surfing enthusiast that writes editorials for the 30-A Review?

That's me but keep it on the down low....

You can surely approach the seller with the other comps. Some of the problem is that the lower listing may not have any validity yet. One random short sale may not mean anything yet except for the fact it has been on the market with no offer. As a buyer that would tell me something. With a good agent and patience you should be able to determine a real value of the subject property. From there, that is your offer. If the seller can not sell, move on and find a real seller if you are in the hunt. If the lots are basically equal why are you looking at the higher priced one? Just curious?

That's me but keep it on the down low....

You can surely approach the seller with the other comps. Some of the problem is that the lower listing may not have any validity yet. One random short sale may not mean anything yet except for the fact it has been on the market with no offer. As a buyer that would tell me something. With a good agent and patience you should be able to determine a real value of the subject property. From there, that is your offer. If the seller can not sell, move on and find a real seller if you are in the hunt. If the lots are basically equal why are you looking at the higher priced one? Just curious?

See... this is why an objective person always helps. The lots really are equal. There are always pros and cons to every property. The more expensive one has a setting that is more appealing for us... offering a bit more privacy as it borders the nature preserve to the back and bike trail to one side. The "lake"/pond is across the street with no obstruction of view. It is more narrow however and might prove difficult for a carriage house which is something we would like to have. The lot diagonal and across the street is plenty large enough for a carriage house and sits on the corner so it too offers some privacy and with an nice side porch we can face our favorite street while we relax and enjoy!

Another point for us is future development of Watercolor. As the community gets built out, we suspect parking around the home will become important for renters (which we plan on doing with this property). The corner lot provides an ally access across the back whereas the more private lot could have more restricted parking.

The third lot up for consideration is in Phase II but a few streets away. Again, rear and front access, green park out front, large enough for a carriage house, etc.. It is also listed for considerably less, BUT this street is across the main drag (WLD) from the Camp pool whereas the others are not. I don't believe the location differences warrant the $135,000 difference in list price.

Lots of info., I know. But I think it helps give you a better picture and therefore more opinion. Thanks again.

And I look forward to your next article...shhh!

Inventory for the same areas.

March, 2005- 854
March, 2006- 2089
March, 2007- 2433
March, 2008- 2505
March, 2009- 2245

Wow, that inventory! That speaks mountains in my experience.

Good news, however! In Atlanta, real estate is starting to move and in certain neighborhoods, moving at asking prices which is a great sign! Burbs aren't doing as well.

Part of the problem in S. Walton Co. are the jumbo priced homes. Lending has still not recovered, particularly the jumbo loans. I've stated before that the shake out on this aspect is very good; however, the pendulum seems to be stuck for a minute. I look forward to the day it comes back center.

I have been feeling a relief lately. Anyone else? Or, am I just in la-la land?

You can also keep track of comps yourself (with a one month or so lag time) on the walton county appraisers site.

Walton County Parcel Maps

Also tracke the lot sheets:

http://hotlist.sellingdestinfl.com/Lots&LandHotlist.htm

Currently looks like there's one in there for around $180K. (..and dropping fast! )

Josh, for grins and giggles, can you retrieve the numbers back to 2001?

Thanks!

Josh, for grins and giggles, can you retrieve the numbers back to 2001?

Thanks!

Below is a link to a bunch of Josh's graphs. Depicts nicely what is going on since several years ago.

Real Estate Blog - Destin Market Statistics and Charts

You can also keep track of comps yourself (with a one month or so lag time) on the walton county appraisers site.

Walton County Parcel Maps

Also tracke the lot sheets:

DESTIN FL REAL ESTATE: Condominium Hotlist

Currently looks like there's one in there for around $180K. (..and dropping fast! )

Be careful when using solely the Walton County Parcel Maps for sales prices. As I've noted in the past, there is a FL state law which requires the doc stamps on foreclosed properties to be at the amount of the default or the value at the time of the foreclosure, whichever is highest. Walton County PA's site doesn't necessarily show the true purchase price. Their purchase price shown is the actually not the purchase price, but the supposed price, based on the doc stamps paid, so in the cases where they actually follow the law, that calculation of "purchase price" may be extremely high, as it should be calculated based on the amount of the default.

eg- Buyer X purchases a home in 2005 for $900,000. Buyer X later defaults on payments to lender in 2009, and the lender forecloses, taking back the property. Buyer X defaulted on $800,000 note. Current value of home is now $485,000. Doc stamps paid by the bank are to be based on the $800,000 (because of that State Law), and the Property Appraiser's site should (though often doesn't) show the "sold amount" as $800,000 because that number is an estimated value based on the amount of Doc Stamps paid.

Hope that isn't confusing. Just be aware that if the County is getting those Doc Stamps correct, we should see more and more prices in the Walton County PA's site, which look way out of whack. Currently, based on the law, I think they are missing the collections of many Doc Stamps from lenders.

You can also keep track of comps yourself (with a one month or so lag time) on the walton county appraisers site.

Walton County Parcel Maps

Also tracke the lot sheets:

DESTIN FL REAL ESTATE: Condominium Hotlist

Currently looks like there's one in there for around $180K. (..and dropping fast! )

From what I can tell there are currently 6 lots in Phase II for under $200,000 list. It is my hope that the other sellers, who really want to sell, are watching this trend and adjust accordingly. I'm very anxious to see what really happens.

I'm new to this so I apologize if I've done something wrong! I have a question regarding lot values. My husband and I have been watching the real estate market on 30-A since 2005. We love the area and are looking to make a long term investment there... more specifically in Watercolor. We are currently looking at lots in Phase II... WOW what a range of pricing! The prices are all over the place. In reading this thread I noticed a discussion on this very topic in a different development. How do I know what to offer the seller? Yes, all the lots we are considering are in either short sale or foreclosure. That being said the price spread is still $135,000. The lots are similar enough in size and two of them are right across the street from one another. Can we (being you guys and myself) begin a discussion? I do have an experienced realtor I'm working with, but as with any major decision, I would prefer to hear from more than one professional. Thanks for your help.

A couple of questions/suggestions--

Are you desperate to buy now? If not, you might want to wait until the summer selling season is over. You will more than likely get a better buy next fall or winter. I've watched prices drop for several years now and fall/winter seems to be the time prices start dipping after the sellers once again missed the summer selling season. Also, waiting until after hurricane season is a good idea.

Why Phase II? Phase III seems much more appealing. The pool in Phase III is less crowded, no through streets, better access to the beach by crossing the bridge into Phase I, better lake access, etc.



Given the current market conditions including the HUGE amount of inventory on the market, I wouldn't pay more than $100k to $120k for an average sized lot in Ph II or Ph III. That would put you in the range of 2000 level pricing. Prices are already headed toward 2000-2001 levels may go lower still.

In 2000, some lots in Ph I were selling for under $200k meaning Ph II and III would likely have been in the low $100's had they been selling those lots in 2000. Many of the lots originally sold in PH II in 2002 were sold at $150k to $180k.

Prices in some places have already fallen below 2000 prices. It appears WC prices are headed there too.

A recent lot sale (feb 2009) listed on the Walton Cty website in Ph IV was at $48k --it appears to be a foreclosure and there may be something weird with the sale, but that is how it is listed on the county website. A lot in PH II sold in Feb for $225k or 12% below the original 2003 purchase price of $261k and a lot in PH III sold for $250k. However, there are now numerous listings for under $200k-AND they are not selling. That should tell you something about future price trends.

Remember, it never hurts to put a lowball offer on the table. The worst that can happen is a NO Thanks.



Good luck.

A couple of questions/suggestions--

Are you desperate to buy now? If not, you might want to wait until the summer selling season is over. You will more than likely get a better buy next fall or winter. I've watched prices drop for several years now and fall/winter seems to be the time prices start dipping after the sellers once again missed the summer selling season. Also, waiting until after hurricane season is a good idea.

Why Phase II? Phase III seems much more appealing. The pool in Phase III is less crowded, no through streets, better access to the beach by crossing the bridge into Phase I, better lake access, etc.



Given the current market conditions including the HUGE amount of inventory on the market, I wouldn't pay more than $100k to $120k for an average sized lot in Ph II or Ph III. That would put you in the range of 2000 level pricing. Prices are already headed toward 2000-2001 levels may go lower still.

In 2000, some lots in Ph I were selling for under $200k meaning Ph II and III would likely have been in the low $100's had they been selling those lots in 2000. Many of the lots originally sold in PH II in 2002 were sold at $150k to $180k.

Prices in some places have already fallen below 2000 prices. It appears WC prices are headed there too.

A recent lot sale (feb 2009) listed on the Walton Cty website in Ph IV was at $48k --it appears to be a foreclosure and there may be something weird with the sale, but that is how it is listed on the county website. A lot in PH II sold in Feb for $225k or 12% below the original 2003 purchase price of $261k and a lot in PH III sold for $250k. However, there are now numerous listings for under $200k-AND they are not selling. That should tell you something about future price trends.

Remember, it never hurts to put a lowball offer on the table. The worst that can happen is a NO Thanks.



Good luck.

We see the appeal of Phase III too. Phase II is a personal choice because of the Camp. We have young children and the Camp just has tons to offer them. I think it would appeal to other families as well (for rental purposes). We do love the easy bridge access from Phase III, so it's really just a personal choice. We are in no hurry, as we've been watching the 30-A market since 2005. I'm happy to wait. In the mean time we will, hopefully, see the prices stabilize and get geared up to buy! Glad to have found a place get opinions and stay connected to what is happening along 30-A... one of the most beautiful places I've ever seen! Thks!

Be careful when using solely the Walton County Parcel Maps for sales prices. As I've noted in the past, there is a FL state law which requires the doc stamps on foreclosed properties to be at the amount of the default or the value at the time of the foreclosure, whichever is highest. Walton County PA's site doesn't necessarily show the true purchase price. Their purchase price shown is the actually not the purchase price, but the supposed price, based on the doc stamps paid, so in the cases where they actually follow the law, that calculation of "purchase price" may be extremely high, as it should be calculated based on the amount of the default.

eg- Buyer X purchases a home in 2005 for $900,000. Buyer X later defaults on payments to lender in 2009, and the lender forecloses, taking back the property. Buyer X defaulted on $800,000 note. Current value of home is now $485,000. Doc stamps paid by the bank are to be based on the $800,000 (because of that State Law), and the Property Appraiser's site should (though often doesn't) show the "sold amount" as $800,000 because that number is an estimated value based on the amount of Doc Stamps paid.

Hope that isn't confusing. Just be aware that if the County is getting those Doc Stamps correct, we should see more and more prices in the Walton County PA's site, which look way out of whack. Currently, based on the law, I think they are missing the collections of many Doc Stamps from lenders.

AFAICT, foreclosed sale prices of this kind are marked as unqualified. (A 'U' vs. a 'Q' for Qual type)

AFAICT, foreclosed sale prices of this kind are marked as unqualified. (A 'U' vs. a 'Q' for Qual type)

This is true that the foreclosure on the mortgage is not considered qualified or "arms lenght". Neither or short sales.
But when the bank/lender now owns the property /REO, and the`sale of the` reo resulted from listing with a`real estate broker in a`Multiple Listing Service at a listing price based on typical marketing times and conditions, the sale is considered arms lenght and qualified.