Alys Beach growth

the only thing i don't like about alys beach are the palm trees. everything else is so right on!

2009 was their best year yet - it is still relatively small and we had a little bit of a bubble burst around here. :sarc:

I don't think you need to compare 1,000 homes in WaterColor to a couple of dozen in Alys Beach.

I am not a realtor and do not have access to sales data. However, I have talked with the realtors at Alys, Watercolor, Rosemary, and Watersound. In addition, I have read through many posts by realtors on this site.

You are clearly not a realtor either and do not have access to the facts.

According to my information, the best year by far in Alys was 2005, not 2009 as you state above. I was also told when looking in Alys that there will be over 800 units in the development which is only about 20 percent smaller than Watercolor. Also, there are not 1000 HOMES in Watercolor. That may be total planned units (like the 800 in Alys) but there are not anywhere close to 1000 homes today. Your info is way off. Comparing 800 potential units to 1000 potential units is not an unrealistic comparison when looking at sales. Are you trying to say that they would not 200, 300 or more units in one year at Alys if the demand was there. Bottom line, demand for Alys doesn't even compare with the demand in Watercolor, or Watersound or Rosemary for that matter. The place is too "unique" and overpriced at current levels. That is why Alys doesn't sell like these other developments.

Based on postings related to Watercolor on this site, there were 50 plus transactions in the development in 2008 and 2009 compared to only a handful in Alys (maybe a realtor can tell us exactly how many each year). So, with 800 potential units and only and handful of sales in 08 and 09, I would say that is a total bust. Not the dramatic year described by you. And, definitely not a record year as described by you (look at 2005 for the record year). I bet that there were more homes and lots sold in Watercolor by the developer (not resales) in the location behind Publix in 2009 (more than a mile from the beach amenities) than were sold by the developer in Alys in 2008 AND 2009 combined.

NOTE --I am not a realtor and have no access to actual data on sales. My info is based on talking with realtors at Alys and Watercolor and review of postings by realtors on this site. It does not appear that Kurt is a realtor or has access to data either because I am certain that 2009 was NOT the record year at Alys.

It would be great if a real estate agent would post some real data on sales to support or refute Kurts and my information above.

It does not appear that Kurt is a realtor or has access to data either because I am certain that 2009 was NOT the record year at Alys.

It would be great if a real estate agent would post some real data on sales to support or refute Kurts and my information above.

True - I am not a realtor, but i do have access to a few facts. The information I stated was what I was told this by several people last year and I have no reason to doubt it, nor guarantee it. Seems like you are very, very interested so dig away and let us know what you find.

As I recall there were about 1,100 units planned for WaterColor. I don't know how many have been completed but it seems like it would be close, but for all I know it could be half that at the moment.

My point is that however many units currently completed in WaterColor, it is such a greater number than those completed in Alys Beach that comparing the 2 problematic at best, and a waste of time at worst.

Alys Beach is a victim of bad timing, which as far as I can tell is the development's only real problem, and a problem everyone has to some extent. If the bubble hadn't burst it, would be at least half built out by now and one of the hottest products in the world in my opinion. It may still be that one day. Alys Beach may not appeal to everyone but the product and planning is unmatched. Only time will tell and it will be interesting to look back 20, 50, 100 years from now.

As an aside, I find it interesting that we get Alys Beach naysayers on this forum in oddly regular intervals with oddly similar-sounding posts. Is Alys Beach an attractive target for some reason?

True - I am not a realtor, but i do have access to a few facts. The information I stated was what I was told this by several people last year and I have no reason to doubt it, nor guarantee it. Seems like you are very very interested so dig away and let us know what you find.

As I recall there were about 1,100 units planned for WaterColor. I don't know how many have been completed but it seems like it would be close, but for all I know it could be half that at the moment.

My point is that however many homes are currently completed in WaterColor, it is such a greater number than those completed in Alys Beach that comparing the 2 problematic at best, and a waste of time at worst.

Alys Beach is a victim of bad timing, which as far as Ii can tell is the development's only real problem, a problem everyone has to some extent. If the bubble hadn't burst it would be at least half built out by now and one of the hottest products in the world in my opinion. It may still be that one day. Alys Beach may not appeal to everyone but the product and planning is unmatched. Only time will tell and it will be interesting to look back 20, 50, 100 years from now.

As an aside, I find it interesting that we get Alys Beach naysayers on this forum in oddly periodic intervals with oddly similar-sounding posts.

Bad timing and now, a much higher price point compared to surrounding communities. Watercolor seems to have adjusted to the new normal quicker - I give Joe credit for the ability to recognize what was going on. Plus Watercolor is in a more developed area, closer to schools, shops, and seaside, all of which probably helps.

I think Alys is stuck in their situation, the cost of the homes there is so high, they have no choice but to wait it out and see if buyers with enough capital return to the market. If the developers can afford to carry the place they'll be fine, it'll just take a lot of time for it to fill in.

Looking at county records, they had 4 lot sales and one existing sale for 2009. That's not bad considering in 2008 they bought back 4 lots!

Bad timing and now, a much higher price point compared to surrounding communities. Watercolor seems to have adjusted to the new normal quicker - I give Joe credit for the ability to recognize what was going on. Plus Watercolor is in a more developed area, closer to schools, shops, and seaside, all of which probably helps.

I think Alys is stuck in their situation, the cost of the homes there is so high, they have no choice but to wait it out and see if buyers with enough capital return to the market. If the developers can afford to carry the place they'll be fine, it'll just take a lot of time for it to fill in.

Looking at county records, they had 4 lot sales and one existing sale for 2009. That's not bad considering in 2008 they bought back 4 lots!

St. Joe has a lot of stockholders to dance to.

Alys Beach has EBSCO behind it. That doesn't mean unlimited money but they have very deep pockets and well diversified, but still hurting compared to earlier times.

These days if you are a developer and able to be in a holding pattern you are doing well.

Between what Beachmouse said about the ocean floor topography, what I said about being almost the highest elevation on the Gulf, and what SWGB said about 100% concrete construction (roof and walls) I still maintain Alys Beach homes are the most hurricane resistant homes on the Florida Coast. That being said, I know of several beach "shacks" built in the sixties/seventies without excessive hurricane protection that have weathered everything from Eloise, Erin, Opal, Ivan, and Dennis just fine. Every time a hurricane hits, the weather channel talks about storm surge of fifteen to twenty feet, and every time, it is usually no more than five to seven feet.

Isn't that just amazing? I love those old 50's and 60's style beach shacks. They're so cute. If I were to buy right on the beach, I'd buy something like that, and keep very little in it. If a hurricane came along and washed it away, who cares! 150K rebuilds a nice shack in short order. You'd probably pay more than that between storms in insurance fees. :lol:

Perhaps some are missing the point that Alys Beach is a Rolls Royce and WaterColor is a Lexus. There are a lot more Lexus on the road than Rolls.

the only thing i don't like about alys beach are the palm trees. everything else is so right on!

What varietal of palm trees are those that line 30A in Alys Beach. I like them I think myself vs. the typical sabal palm but perhaps like you'd prefer less or no palms at all, not being native plants.

Rolls Royce vs. Lexus? Huh? That doesn't make any sense. How can you compare beach property to cars? Maybe I am missing the point but when you drive west to east on 30A and come in to Alys Beach the landscape lighting and the white architectural kiosks (for lack of a better word) are so beautiful. I must way when we used to drive through there it was nothing but an inky blackness (because nothing was there). I agree with the above post, there is nothing better than a beach "shack." The quintessential Florida getaway. It is so much fun talking to everyone on here.

I think the palms are Sylvester Date Palms


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Rolls Royce vs. Lexus? Huh? That doesn't make any sense. How can you compare beach property to cars? Maybe I am missing the point but when you drive west to east on 30A and come in to Alys Beach the landscape lighting and the white architectural kiosks (for lack of a better word) are so beautiful. I must way when we used to drive through there it was nothing but an inky blackness (because nothing was there). I agree with the above post, there is nothing better than a beach "shack." The quintessential Florida getaway. It is so much fun talking to everyone on here.

The comparison was high quality compared to super high quality and that one is more abundant than the other.

St. Joe has a lot of stockholders to dance to.

Alys Beach has EBSCO behind it. That doesn't mean unlimited money but they have very deep pockets and well diversified, but still hurting compared to earlier times.

These days if you are a developer and able to be in a holding pattern you are doing well.

Just to throw my 2 cents in here. When looking at Alys sales, one thing I noted was deeds going from independent parties back to EBSCO. This is because they have an agreement to buy back parcels (at least with some) and these really couldn't count towards sales stats. I noted this only on lots I believe and it's quite time consuming to determine what portion have gone back to EBSCO and even more difficult to determine if they've gone back to other corps or llc's set up for the purpose of holding them. Also, some deed transfers have occurred that aren't in the mls so to determine "real" numbers of independent parties buying and remaining owners in Alys may not be possible without inside knowledge.

In any event, Kurt, you're right on. I found no evidence of EBSCO having financial problems in the public records and while I wasn't thrilled a few years back when they chose to preclude realtors from co-broking, they have proven that they are going to be a fantastic addition to 30A.

Yes, they are WAY overpriced but they apparently feel they can hold it together. I used those 2 beachfront Alys lots as a comp on a beachfront lot in Paradise that I have under contract. The Paradise lot is 6 times bigger. The buyer didn't have to think twice. Both communities have their pros and cons, my buyer went for the long term investment potential.

As an aside, I find it interesting that we get Alys Beach naysayers on this forum in oddly regular intervals with oddly similar-sounding posts. Is Alys Beach an attractive target for some reason?

kurt, this can be summed up in 2 words.... "Hater Aid"
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Maybe that's one word "Hater-Aid"
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Dang! Does the hyphen make it one or two words :idontno:

A hyphen would make two words into a hyphenated word.