Will prices go lower?

are you playing the real estate market like the stock market?

I think there is still a lot of mess to be cleaned up and a lot of people who are in over their heads.

Not to mention all the commercial loans coming due.

No bottom....................but I bet you can find some great deals that might not be there during the actual absolute bottom.

Have we hit "bottom" yet?

I'd say bottom in sales but I think prices in most areas will continue to decline for a number of years.

One of the things I've been noticing is a lot of shadow inventory. Every area I look in I find homes and lots that are in foreclosure but the bank has yet to seek final judgement. These properties are either abandoned or the owners are living in them for free. The banks have no interest in final closing (as they would become responsible for HOA, property taxes and upkeep) so the homes just sit in limbo. Meaning basically that a number of soon-to-be-bank-owned property is sitting out there waiting to go on the market. With those types of sales, prices usually get pushed lower.

I would say if you are looking to buy, now is not the best time, government incentives aimed at propping up prices are in full effect. It would be better to wait a couple years or so until those incentives run dry, then pick from the glut of properties that land on the market. (That's my opinion and personal approach of course, everybody should make their own educated decicions.)

prices are near a bottom and good houses at dirt cheap prices are hard to find. i assure you 100% by april or may obama will institute a massive nationwide cram down of mortgages to bring millions of mortgages down to there true value thus creating a bottom in the mkt. but the economy as a whole will tank as rates sky threw the roof as our debt levels move to incredible levels and foreigners will no longer finace our debt. prices will go sideways for years. by tinkering with the economy the gov't has insured the usa a miserable next 10 years.but if you find a home you love at a good price go for it. but one must be willing to own it for 10-20 years

I just told a friend that when his 'consumer confidence' is strong, then it's a good time for him to buy. However, he's been 'looking' for ten years.

I believe it does boil down to personal financial philosophy, risk tolerance and personal consumer confidence. And, every market is different.

My neighborhood in Atlanta has about 700 homes and no foreclosures.......except first one just announced. So, there will still be another wave or two or three of those who held on as long as they could, etc......

prices are near a bottom and good houses at dirt cheap prices are hard to find. i assure you 100% by april or may obama will institute a massive nationwide cram down of mortgages to bring millions of mortgages down to there true value thus creating a bottom in the mkt. but the economy as a whole will tank as rates sky threw the roof as our debt levels move to incredible levels and foreigners will no longer finace our debt. prices will go sideways for years. by tinkering with the economy the gov't has insured the usa a miserable next 10 years.but if you find a home you love at a good price go for it. but one must be willing to own it for 10-20 years

You honestly think thy'll do that considering the rather weak attempts thus far at modifications? Coming into an election season with past homowner bailout very unpopular, I personally doubt it.

The other thing I wonder about is inflation - my two year window could easily be upset in 2011 by skyrocketting rates. But, if that did happen, we'd likely see a major double dip in housing.. personally I'd be willing to wait something like that out, the deals on the other side would blow current foreclosed prices out of the water.

buy when everyone is negative.

yes the gov't is 100% looking at mortgage cramdowns. several articles have said this is why the gov't just raised the freddie mac/fannie mae lose limits to UNLIMITED.pandora's box is about to open as millions of people who wouldn't have walked away from there mortgages will walk if the gov't goes down this insane road.we have followed the exact road of japan from 1990. WE REFUSE TO TAKE OUR MEDICINE AND GET THE PAIN OVER WITH. INSTEAD WE'VE EXTENDED THE LIVES OF 1000'S OF INSOLVENT CO'S THAT ARE SUCKING THE CAPITAL AWAY FROM MANY CO'S AND PROGRAMS THAT NEED IT. ITS A MASSIVE MISALLOCATION OF CAPTIAL THAT WILL HAUNT US FOR YEARS OR DECADES TO COME.WE'RE IN THE FIRST INNING OF A NATIONWIDE DELEVERAGING OF THE CONSUMER AFTER 30 YEARS OF RECKLESS BINGING.


Treasury has reloaded its bazooka and stands ready to shock and awe the housing market.
Though, Standard & Poor?s/Case-Shiller data showed a fifth month of improvement yesterday, analysts still expect prices to fall 10 percent or more next year as various government supports wind down.
Political pressure ahead of midterm elections will likely force the administration to do something in response and Treasury?s Christmas gift of nearly unlimited support for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac gives them a powerful weapon to do so.
But it will be a tough fight as artificial, government-sponsored demand dries up.
The housing tax credit ? $8,000 for first-time buyers, $6,500 for move-up buyers ? ends in April. Meanwhile, the Federal Housing Administration plans to tighten its loose lending standards as its reserve fund has dwindled.
Moreover, mortgage rates may head higher as the government ends purchases of mortgage-backed securities. Treasury?s $220 billion buyback program ends this week. The Federal Reserve?s $1.25 trillion program ceases in March.
And then there?s the continuing flood of Treasuries to finance the federal deficit. Morgan Stanley estimates that could drive 30-year mortgage rates back above 7.5 percent, an effective 40 percent increase in the cost of financing home purchases. That looks high, but even a smaller jump will drive buyers from the market and force house prices down.
But the biggest threat may be foreclosures. Credit Suisse expects 4.2 million next year and says that 3.2 million must be prevented to keep prices stable. That?s a tall order, considering unimpressive results from modification efforts that mostly focused on extending terms or lowering interest payments.
Banks, mortgage bond investors and servicers are loath to go further, by forgiving principal, because it?s either a direct hit to capital or tricky to do under current bond documents. Extend and pretend is less painful.
Enter Fannie and Freddie. With unlimited support from Treasury the two have theoretically unlimited capacity to eat losses, useful to Treasury if it wants to finance an expanded modification program that includes principal forgiveness.
It?s a tempting weapon to deploy ahead of midterm elections. But financing principal writedowns with taxpayer money only adds to America?s debt burden while rewarding irresponsible borrowers and lenders.
Dec 30, 2009 08:05 EST

buy when every negative human being[who is obsessed with owning in sowal ] on this board is spewing negative doomsday bile about the end or real estate as we know it. you'll be sure to land a deal. you can't time a market, but you can surely see when it's a buyer's market. que the panic room crowd.

Have we hit "bottom" yet?

We will never really know when he hit a bottom until we have left the bottom. Also, RE is so local in nature it may be different a block away. What area and what are you looking for?

buy when everyone is negative.

negative = upside down

Sorry, couldn't resist. ;-)

Bobby J is spot on. Real estate is very local and bottoms are seen only after they have passed.

Bob is also spot on, the old Warren Buffet philosophy works. When your plumber is telling you to sell or buy, do the opposite, because by the time your plumber knows, it is well after the best time to do it, unless we are talking about plumbing products.

There are too many unknowns to predict the bottom, but looking at real numbers on graphs and charts, we see some stabilization on selling prices over the last six months, but most inventory coming on the market, and the inventory which is being withdrawn is priced much higher than the prices which are selling. Most of the inventory is overpriced, and when listings get to the WoW price, they sell fairly quickly, with multiple offers coming in. Remember that many buyers have been watching patiently over the last five years, and they know the right price when they see it, and they are very quick to act before someone else does.

yes the gov't is 100% looking at mortgage cramdowns. several articles have said this is why the gov't just raised the freddie mac/fannie mae lose limits to UNLIMITED.pandora's box is about to open as millions of people who wouldn't have walked away from there mortgages will walk if the gov't goes down this insane road.we have followed the exact road of japan from 1990. WE REFUSE TO TAKE OUR MEDICINE AND GET THE PAIN OVER WITH. INSTEAD WE'VE EXTENDED THE LIVES OF 1000'S OF INSOLVENT CO'S THAT ARE SUCKING THE CAPITAL AWAY FROM MANY CO'S AND PROGRAMS THAT NEED IT. ITS A MASSIVE MISALLOCATION OF CAPTIAL THAT WILL HAUNT US FOR YEARS OR DECADES TO COME.WE'RE IN THE FIRST INNING OF A NATIONWIDE DELEVERAGING OF THE CONSUMER AFTER 30 YEARS OF RECKLESS BINGING.


Treasury has reloaded its bazooka and stands ready to shock and awe the housing market.
Though, Standard & Poor?s/Case-Shiller data showed a fifth month of improvement yesterday, analysts still expect prices to fall 10 percent or more next year as various government supports wind down.
Political pressure ahead of midterm elections will likely force the administration to do something in response and Treasury?s Christmas gift of nearly unlimited support for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac gives them a powerful weapon to do so.
But it will be a tough fight as artificial, government-sponsored demand dries up.
The housing tax credit ? $8,000 for first-time buyers, $6,500 for move-up buyers ? ends in April. Meanwhile, the Federal Housing Administration plans to tighten its loose lending standards as its reserve fund has dwindled.
Moreover, mortgage rates may head higher as the government ends purchases of mortgage-backed securities. Treasury?s $220 billion buyback program ends this week. The Federal Reserve?s $1.25 trillion program ceases in March.
And then there?s the continuing flood of Treasuries to finance the federal deficit. Morgan Stanley estimates that could drive 30-year mortgage rates back above 7.5 percent, an effective 40 percent increase in the cost of financing home purchases. That looks high, but even a smaller jump will drive buyers from the market and force house prices down.
But the biggest threat may be foreclosures. Credit Suisse expects 4.2 million next year and says that 3.2 million must be prevented to keep prices stable. That?s a tall order, considering unimpressive results from modification efforts that mostly focused on extending terms or lowering interest payments.
Banks, mortgage bond investors and servicers are loath to go further, by forgiving principal, because it?s either a direct hit to capital or tricky to do under current bond documents. Extend and pretend is less painful.
Enter Fannie and Freddie. With unlimited support from Treasury the two have theoretically unlimited capacity to eat losses, useful to Treasury if it wants to finance an expanded modification program that includes principal forgiveness.
It?s a tempting weapon to deploy ahead of midterm elections. But financing principal writedowns with taxpayer money only adds to America?s debt burden while rewarding irresponsible borrowers and lenders.
Dec 30, 2009 08:05 EST

Please provide a link and use quote tags.

The old mentality that housing is some sort of get rich quick scheme appears to be back these days. When you hear people using Buffet's stock investment philosophy for RE, be careful... "you must buy now or loose loose loose out on great deals that will never come back! Make millions in housing! Now is a great time to buy your first investment home!"

Who said Buffet is about get rich quick? I hear something different from people. I hear people saying, "if you like it and the price works for you, do your homework and go for it." Not, buy now because you will make crap loads of money in the next year. Are you reading a different thread from which you are forming that opinion?

Here are two facts about the market:

1. We will never really know when we are at a bottom until it passes.

2. Desirable property sells fast if price is right.

Five key items to watch in 2010 for housing - nice summary from the WSJ:

How Will the Housing Market Look in 2010? - Developments - WSJ