Back to Real Estate

Let the market correct

30ashopper avatar
SoWal Insider
3,085 views
The unexpectedly deep plunge in home sales this summer is likely to force the Obama administration to choose between future homeowners and current ones, a predicament officials had been eager to avoid.

Over the last 18 months, the administration has rolled out just about every program it could think of to prop up the ailing housing market, using tax credits, mortgage modification programs, low interest rates, government-backed loans and other assistance intended to keep values up and delinquent borrowers out of foreclosure. The goal was to stabilize the market until a resurgent economy created new households that demanded places to live.

As the economy again sputters and potential buyers flee ? July housing sales sank 26 percent from July 2009 ? there is a growing sense of exhaustion with government intervention. Some economists and analysts are now urging a dose of shock therapy that would greatly shift the benefits to future homeowners: Let the housing market crash.

..

A small decline in home prices might not make too much of a difference to a slack economy. But an unchecked drop of 10 percent or more might prove entirely discouraging to the millions of owners just hanging on, especially those who bought in the last few years under the impression that a turnaround had already begun.

The government is on the hook for many of these mortgages, another reason policy makers have been aggressively seeking stability. What helped support the market last year could now cause it to crumble.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/06/business/economy/06housing.html

I think another downturn in prices is virtually guarenteed. It doesn't look like we'll be trying to prop things up this time either.

Replies

16
Beach Fanatic
#2
I think you are correct. Market is allowed to fall this time. I think the Prez handled it well. Prevented an implosion a couple of years ago and hopefully will now allow a more modest slow correction.
Beach Fanatic
#3
some pts of the usa like new york city haven't corrected much. but i think sowal which started its downturn much earlier than the rest of the us is bottoming. i've been tracking watercolor and rosemary and i don't see much drop price per square foot the past 2 years on the lowest of the prices. i recall looking at a nice home on western drive in dec 2008 for 680k or $300 a square foot and here 21 months later i've yet to really see anything sell for less than $300 a square foot in that area of watercolor.i thought at the time prices in watercolor were headed to $200 a square foot but iw as wrong. were i ended up buying in jan 2009 or 20 months ago there have been 8 sales or more and nobody has bought less than i paid per square foot. yes some areas have fallen more but i'd say many areas stabilizing. heck sowal has fallen in many areas as much as south fla. many prices back to 10 or more yrs ago. many lots 80-90% off peak prices. its a great time to buy for long term holders
TNJed avatar
Beach Fanatic
#4
MortgageGate could well bring Wall St. to it's knees.

From evicted homeowners breaking back into their old homes and changing locks to Adam Levitan telling Citigroup yesterday this thing could be completely systemic, I believe this could be how the social revolution will unfold. Wont be by might. It will be a shutoff of money to the corporatocracy and starve the beast.

It was the fast and easy money that that attracted Wall St. to use the MERS registration system. Allowing them to bypass taxes and document fees by creating an electronic Delaware Corp. which owned 60% of all titles. And this rush to embrace technology for ease and greed has turned and bitten them hard. With no proof of an original blue-inked title, there is no proof of ownership.

If you've bought a foreclosed home, I wouldn't be surprised if your bank didn't hear from the previous foreclosed owners. Any way you slice it, this thing is far from over and ugly all over.

What do you do when most American's retirement packages are invested with corrupt banks which should have failed 2 years ago and are yet again faced with perhaps a bigger crisis. Give them another couple trillion for QE2? Or let the free market reign, allowing them to crash and take everyone with them?

I would really, really, really hate to make that decision for 300 million people. I don't believe "Too big too fail" will work this time. I think the banks take it on the chin and it's going to be an epic fight.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/citigroup-call-implications-foreclosure-crisis-just-tip-iceberg


Simi family changes locks, retakes foreclosed home ? Ventura County Star
Beach Fanatic
#5
I'll believe it when i see it. wall street will never fall as long as we have a corrupt money printing fed and gov't. anytime things get bad helicopter ben just prints more money. If the banks get in trouble with this they'll simply print even more. The $ has been collapsing as oil and all commodities are sky rocketing. corn is up 50% in a few months.by taking rates to zero helicopter ben has stoeln from ever saver and given the green light to banks and brokers to use free money to speculate
TNJed avatar
Beach Fanatic
#6
couldn't have said it better, ray. It's rather hard to move a divided and "wedged" population against any one cause isn't it? The politico machine did it's job by getting the herd all riled up over stuff that the Constitution made clear 200 years ago. Ridiculous.

Now, the banksters and their elected secretaries can ram thru anything they want, again. At least I hope not! Most people are reactionary and not precautionary. Just maybe when this is at their front door the masses will start talking amongst themselves instead of screaming at each other and do what needs to be done.
TNJed avatar
Beach Fanatic
#8
Wells Fargo circling the drain...


Wells Fargo Prepares For Tsunami Of Loan Repurchase Demands | zero hedge


Zero Hedge has obtained Wells Fargo's brand new confidential protocol guidelines on loan repurchase demands by investors and mortgage insurers, sent out on October 15, and which becomes effective tomorrow. We have reproduced these below to see just how much more "streamlined" the process is, now that the bank is fully aware of the massive liability it faces as a "loan puttable" entity in a world that is suddenly replete with pervasive and rampant title fraud. Amusingly, in the CIM, Wells states: "Wells Fargo is committed ? just like you are - to honoring contractual obligations with investors and mortgage insurance (MI) companies*. We want to ensure that the resolution process for Repurchase and Rescissions is as smooth and swift as possible." And even so, Wells continues to refuse to halt foreclosures knowing full well it would face billions in impairments should it do so voluntarily, even though as we confirmed Warren Buffett's pet bank was recently caught with its robosigning pants down as well (an event which was sufficient for everyone else to invoke a self-imposed moratorium, even Goldman, whose Litton Loan Servicing unit was rumored to have serviced about 4 or 5 mortgages in the past century... but not the California real estate monster). What is critical, is that Wells Fargo admits that should all avenues under existing legal guidelines be exhausted, and robofraud is certainly a dealbreaker that can not be "explained or validated away", then the bank will be forced to repurchase the loan. In other words, starting tomorrow Wells is preparing for the loan repruchase tsunami to hit the fan as investors and insurers everywhere swamp the bank with tens if not hundreds of billions of repurchase and recissions demands. Suck it in, Wells investors.
melscuba avatar
Beach Fanatic
#9
Wells Fargo circling the drain...


Wells Fargo Prepares For Tsunami Of Loan Repurchase Demands | zero hedge


Zero Hedge has obtained Wells Fargo's brand new confidential protocol guidelines on loan repurchase demands by investors and mortgage insurers, sent out on October 15, and which becomes effective tomorrow. We have reproduced these below to see just how much more "streamlined" the process is, now that the bank is fully aware of the massive liability it faces as a "loan puttable" entity in a world that is suddenly replete with pervasive and rampant title fraud. Amusingly, in the CIM, Wells states: "Wells Fargo is committed ? just like you are - to honoring contractual obligations with investors and mortgage insurance (MI) companies*. We want to ensure that the resolution process for Repurchase and Rescissions is as smooth and swift as possible." And even so, Wells continues to refuse to halt foreclosures knowing full well it would face billions in impairments should it do so voluntarily, even though as we confirmed Warren Buffett's pet bank was recently caught with its robosigning pants down as well (an event which was sufficient for everyone else to invoke a self-imposed moratorium, even Goldman, whose Litton Loan Servicing unit was rumored to have serviced about 4 or 5 mortgages in the past century... but not the California real estate monster). What is critical, is that Wells Fargo admits that should all avenues under existing legal guidelines be exhausted, and robofraud is certainly a dealbreaker that can not be "explained or validated away", then the bank will be forced to repurchase the loan. In other words, starting tomorrow Wells is preparing for the loan repruchase tsunami to hit the fan as investors and insurers everywhere swamp the bank with tens if not hundreds of billions of repurchase and recissions demands. Suck it in, Wells investors.

This is all just a little bit over my head. I think mainly because I'm getting bits and pieces. Is the jist of it that these banks are not going through proper due process in the foreclosure? and therefore, these homes have been illegally seized and resold? or is that another story I am getting a whiff of and this is something else? Bottom line, I am thoroughly confused and want to know what this means... not just in business, but to me as a homeowner, and potential purchaser of a home in short sale or foreclosure.
melscuba avatar
Beach Fanatic
#10
This is all just a little bit over my head. I think mainly because I'm getting bits and pieces. Is the jist of it that these banks are not going through proper due process in the foreclosure? and therefore, these homes have been illegally seized and resold? or is that another story I am getting a whiff of and this is something else? Bottom line, I am thoroughly confused and want to know what this means... not just in business, but to me as a homeowner, and potential purchaser of a home in short sale or foreclosure.

o.k. this helps a bit.... still confusing, but I'll keep researching.

Banks Committed Fraud on Investors of Mortgage Backed Securities

activerain.com/blogsview/1914838/banks-committed-fraud-on-investors-of-mortgage-backed-securities
melscuba avatar
Beach Fanatic
#11
o.k. this helps a bit.... still confusing, but I'll keep researching.

Banks Committed Fraud on Investors of Mortgage Backed Securities

activerain.com/blogsview/1914838/banks-committed-fraud-on-investors-of-mortgage-backed-securities

Here's another piece of the puzzle I was referring to earlier. Still not sure how all of this pans out for Joe Homeowner who is NOT in a bad situation or who would like to purchase a home. What does this mean for future home values and sales opportunities??

Title to Property Is Sacred and Must Be Protected by the Rule of Law
scooterbug44 avatar
SoWal Expert
#12
It doesn't matter unless you are buying a property where the ownership is in doubt - basically a foreclosure.

The banks did as good of a job of keeping correct files and following proper foreclosure procedures as they did making loans. For some odd reason, when you have some guy rubber stamping hundreds of foreclosures a day w/out reviewing them, there are errors and legal complications. :roll:
Beach Fanatic
#13
And there is also something about having to show that the bank still has the title when they foreclose. Many banks supposedly sold the paper and have no title to show that they can legally foreclose.
TNJed avatar
Beach Fanatic
#14
This is all just a little bit over my head. I think mainly because I'm getting bits and pieces. Is the jist of it that these banks are not going through proper due process in the foreclosure? and therefore, these homes have been illegally seized and resold? or is that another story I am getting a whiff of and this is something else? Bottom line, I am thoroughly confused and want to know what this means... not just in business, but to me as a homeowner, and potential purchaser of a home in short sale or foreclosure.

There is no one simple answer. This is a spider web of systemic fraud which has gone on since....well, 1913 when the FED was established, to 1999 when the Glass-Steagall Act was repealed (Glass Steagall prohibited banks, investment banks and insurance companies from combining. Ooops! Now they're too big too fail.) by Phil Gramm of TX.

All that set the stage for "easy credit ripoffs...Good Times". But to your point, the mortgage lenders thought they would save a relative few pennies by forming a Delaware Corp. to electronically register titles, because there are title fees every time a note changes hands. They needed a way to circumvent those so they could chop up all these "liar loans" and repackage them Grade AAA rated investments multiple times without paying fees. This is MERS (Mortgage Electronic Registration System).

MERS changed the need to keep a hand signed wet-inked note into a fee-free electronic one. The problem is, the banks shredded the originals and if asked cannot produce them. That's a problem because it makes the loan agreement null and void per their own fine print.

This doesn't mean free houses but it does mean lawsuits galore from title insurance companies, evicted homeowners and any note holder who cares enough to ask...

SHOW ME THE NOTE!


Gonzalo Lira On What Brian and Ilsa Said To Their Bank: ?Show Me The Note? | zero hedge

This Is What Brian and Ilsa Said To Their Bank: ?Show Me The Note?
So the week before last, I wrote about Brian and Ilsa, a retired couple in their mid-to-late sixties, living in a house in the Southwest that had?unremarkably?gone underwater.

They had tried to refinance their home mortgage, under the auspices of the HAMP, the Home Affordable Modification Program. HAMP was part of the Financial Stability Act of 2009?the famed ?Stimulus Package?.

Under this program, the principal of Brian and Ilsa?s mortgage loan would remain the same?they would not be getting a free ride. (Some readers mistakenly thought that they would. See note at bottom.)

But though the principal of their mortgage loan would remain the same, the period of their mortgage would be extended?and the loan itself would be refinanced with a lowered mortgage rate of 2.75%, from the 6.25% of the original mortgage.

Therefore, their monthly payments would go down roughly 40%?a significant amount for them, especially after their retirement savings had taken a big hit following the Global Financial Crisis.

What had been dreadful about Brian and Ilsa?s case was that, though they qualified for HAMP?and indeed, HAMP had contacted them, at least initially?they were given the bureaucratic runaround for several months, before they were finally allowed into the program.

And then, three months after their mortgage had been lowered, with no warning, they were told that they in fact did not qualify?even though the program fit them like a glove.......


.....Last Monday, October 4, after I had finished interviewing them and was busy writing my original post on the pair, Brian mulled over what I had told him about chain-of-title and the Mortgage Mess?I can just see him, head lowered, looking up: The epitome of the Kubrick Stare.

Brian dashed off an e-mail to his bank that night?a quick post, where he explicitly said, ?I want to see the loan note where it says I owe you money, or else I?m contacting my lawyer and halting payment on my mortgage.?

The very next day, someone from Wells Fargo called them.

Not a machine, not a customer service rep in India?an actual, honest-to-God, alive-and-kicking bank executive.

She apologized profusely about the HAMP screw up?said that Brian and Ilsa qualified, they qualified, they qualified!, and that she would be the one to ?straighten out their situation?.

Brian and Ilsa couldn?t talk that Tuesday, when the bank executive called. And for various reasons, they couldn?t talk Wednesday either?they finally talked to the bank executive on Thursday . . .

. . . and during those three days, it was the executive who chased them: Two e-mails to their AOL account, two phone calls on their answering machine.

On Thursday, when they spoke, the bank executive was sweetness and light?she told them that Ilsa and Brian qualified for HAMP, that they would get refinanced, that they would not have to pay the difference in mortgage of the last three months??Your lower mortgage rate is locked in!?

And as to the $84 penalty fee, which had driven Brian in particular up the wall: It was waived.

Ilsa told me, ?It was the nicest conversation we?ve ever had with a bank executive.?

The executive promised to have the papers drawn up, ready to be signed before November 1.

That?s right: November first. After dicking them around for months on end, Wells Fargo all of a sudden went from turtle-speed to light-speed?to warp-speed?boom!?just like that. They didn?t even engage thrusters, Captain?it was warp drive the instant Brian e-mailed that threat.

Threat?, you say. What threat was that?

The threat Brian laid down, in the e-mail he sent Monday night:

Show me the note, mother****er!

That threat.

---------------------------------------------------------------

I'm still a novice at understanding all this because it isn't skin deep. This thing cuts to the core of our country. Moving the power from the people to the banks. We are indebted servants with just enough shiny things to keep us occupied.

I don't cheer on hard times. I am a proponent of justice. And what's more, I would rather deal with it by taking one swift kick in the nuts over a slap in the face every day of my life. Bring it on so we can make it right.

I recommend reading Zero Hedge articles and just as important, the comments. A lot of smart smart people on there.

http://www.zerohedge.com/

Forgot one more...

http://market-ticker.org/

Read those two sites for cut-to-the-chase market truth. Yes, it's heady complicated stuff, but that's what keeps us in the dark. Time to light up the dark.

Edited

Bob avatar
SoWal Insider
#15
MortgageGate could well bring Wall St. to it's knees.

From evicted homeowners breaking back into their old homes and changing locks to Adam Levitan telling Citigroup yesterday this thing could be completely systemic, I believe this could be how the social revolution will unfold. Wont be by might. It will be a shutoff of money to the corporatocracy and starve the beast.

It was the fast and easy money that that attracted Wall St. to use the MERS registration system. Allowing them to bypass taxes and document fees by creating an electronic Delaware Corp. which owned 60% of all titles. And this rush to embrace technology for ease and greed has turned and bitten them hard. With no proof of an original blue-inked title, there is no proof of ownership.

If you've bought a foreclosed home, I wouldn't be surprised if your bank didn't hear from the previous foreclosed owners. Any way you slice it, this thing is far from over and ugly all over.

What do you do when most American's retirement packages are invested with corrupt banks which should have failed 2 years ago and are yet again faced with perhaps a bigger crisis. Give them another couple trillion for QE2? Or let the free market reign, allowing them to crash and take everyone with them?

I would really, really, really hate to make that decision for 300 million people. I don't believe "Too big too fail" will work this time. I think the banks take it on the chin and it's going to be an epic fight.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/citigroup-call-implications-foreclosure-crisis-just-tip-iceberg


Simi family changes locks, retakes foreclosed home ? Ventura County Star
citi was up over 5 percent today. not sure they have a problem with this.
TNJed avatar
Beach Fanatic
#16
The stock market and reality have little correlation. The market is about keeping public confidence. You illustrated that very well.

The rules and commercial law change overnight these days to keep mark-to-fantasy alive, followed up with direct injections from the Fed, Pomo, and the PPT. It's all ponzi and a ponzi ain't a problem until it is.
Bob avatar
SoWal Insider
#17
my post was in regard to citi and their potential issues with mers/ robo signing. i'm not trying to move away the dark clouds.

Checking your forum account

Please wait while we verify your forum account.