The St. Joe Co.?s stock plunged Thursday for a second straight day after a well-known short seller announced he is betting against the stock.
David Einhorn, president of hedge fund Greenlight Capital Inc., told an investor conference in New York Wednesday that he is shorting St. Joe?s stock because he thinks the company?s land holdings are overvalued, and it will have to write off a large portion of its investments in the properties.
According to a Wall Street Journal story, Einhorn said Wednesday that St. Joe?s stock is worth $7 to $10 a share, compared with its recent trading price in the $20s.
?The best properties have been sold, many lots were sold to speculators during the boom and when the boom ended, business essentially stopped,? Einhorn said, according to Bloomberg News.
?Many developments are ghost towns and little value remains,? he said.
Most of Jacksonville-based St. Joe?s land holdings are in the Florida Panhandle but one community Einhorn spotlighted was St. Joe?s RiverTown development in St. Johns County, where development has stopped because of the housing market crash. He called RiverTown a ?moonscape,? Bloomberg reported.
Replies
48Beach Fanatic
....
Einhorn ... He said the stock is worth $7-$10, so he' still has room to play.
Yeah, he's going to be completely honest with his publicly stated downside target as a short seller.
If JOE is not worthless, there are only a few people on the planet who NEED to buy JOE at some point, and that would include Einhorn, and perhaps anybody who took my advice 5 years ago and shorted JOE.
SoWal Insider
ummmm.... I suggested JOE a few days ago. In that time frame, it is down like 7% while the DOW is down 5%. negligible difference, and what I'd expect from a heaviy shorted stock. JOE is to be bought here, not sold.
Welcome back to the playground.
Just for the fun, on the day I proposed the JOE/INTC throwdown, I made a Fantasy Portfolio (FP) of the two stocks.
I put $2K in each stock at the closing price on Nov 4th (the day you named as the start date matching JOE against a list of nose-bleeding high-flyers).
You turned down my proposal to pit INTC against JOE, instead wanting to offer JOE against SPY, (which I declined--because apparently in some parallel universe--I upgraded JOE to a buy :roll
I added $2K of SPY to the FP (also using the Nov 4 closing price).The FP results as of closing today:
STOCK/VALUE/GAIN-LOSS
INTC/$2015.73/+0.79%
SPY/$1,967.78/-1.61%
JOE/1,776.89/-11.16%
Edited
Beach Fanatic
So you've become one of those high frequency traders shell?
Anyhow, the fantasy account idea is great.. let's track how these do.
The JOE will outperform the SPY bigtime over the next year or 10. INTC is also a great pick from its depressed level, especially with the 10 year treasury trading at 37 X 2020 earnings... i like INTC too.
JOE and IINTC,
going on a cruise I'll check back in 10 days... a watched pot never boils
Anyhow, the fantasy account idea is great.. let's track how these do.
The JOE will outperform the SPY bigtime over the next year or 10. INTC is also a great pick from its depressed level, especially with the 10 year treasury trading at 37 X 2020 earnings... i like INTC too.
JOE and IINTC,
going on a cruise I'll check back in 10 days... a watched pot never boils
SoWal Insider
So you've become one of those high frequency traders shell?
Anyhow, the fantasy account idea is great.. let's track how these do.
The JOE will outperform the SPY bigtime over the next year or 10. INTC is also a great pick from its depressed level, especially with the 10 year treasury trading at 37 X 2020 earnings... i like INTC too.
JOE and IINTC,
going on a cruise I'll check back in 10 days... a watched pot never boils
Ahoy!
If I think of it, I'll post a weekly update on the portfolio...I'll be reinvesting the dividends back into the stocks.
Planned on tracking them at least until the date mentioned in the wager thread--end of May 2011. 10 years? Maybe. 50 years?...no can do--I'll be out touring in my brass-handled Cadillac.
Bon Voyage!
Enjoy your cruise & turkey day.
Shel.
Beach Fanatic
there is an ogoing interesting bit of "reasearch" being done by the justice department on insider trading and other wall street activities and guess whose name keeps on popping up?
Beach Fanatic
Dow Jones is up 5.5% year-to-date while Joe is down 39.6% year to date.
Plus the Dow pays these nice little things called dividends.
Beach Fanatic
Welcome back to the playground.
Just for the fun, on the day I proposed the JOE/INTC throwdown, I made a Fantasy Portfolio (FP) of the two stocks.
I put $2K in each stock at the closing price on Nov 4th (the day you named as the start date matching JOE against a list of nose-bleeding high-flyers).
You turned down my proposal to pit INTC against JOE, instead wanting to offer JOE against SPY, (which I declined--because apparently in some parallel universe--I upgraded JOE to a buy :roll
The FP results as of closing today:
STOCK/VALUE/GAIN-LOSS
INTC/$2015.73/+0.79%
SPY/$1,967.78/-1.61%
JOE/1,776.89/-11.16%
One individual stock can outperform an index like the S&P 500 because owning an individual stock has more risk than owning a basket of 500 stocks.
Will an investor be rewarded for taking that additional risk?
Most of the time-no.
It's your money if you like giving it away be my guest.
SoWal Insider
One individual stock can outperform an index like the S&P 500 because owning an individual stock has more risk than owning a basket of 500 stocks.
Will an investor be rewarded for taking that additional risk?
Most of the time-no.
It's your money if you like giving it away be my guest.
...that's why I own both--individual (high-quality mostly dividend-paying) stocks & market indexes (foreign & domestic).
Not everyone could or should own individual stocks. I personally like having individual stocks because they add some pizazz (and dividends) to the portfolio and I have a pretty well-diversified bunch, so I sleep soundly.
Now, when one speaks of JOE--then that's a whole other thing entirely.
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Beach Fanatic
also once you know how the bubble "system" works it is easy to swoop in after the crash and pick up individual stocks that are favored by the ibanks and thusly guaranteed profits with their relationships with the fed. Plus you can pick up a few other honest companies that just happen to loose stock price when the whole market crashes. It does not take alot of smarts just a stomach for being a part of the game.
SoWal Insider
Busta hustle, is Joe under investigation for insider trading? Is this what you're implying?
Beach Fanatic
no Lynnie but the hedge funds that are shorting Joe heavily are.
SoWal Insider
no Lynnie but the hedge funds that are shorting Joe heavily are.
...so, the insiders at JOE are telling the hedgies that the company is a piece of crap worth shorting?
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Beach Crab
All the debate about whether or not the 'insiders' are manipulating St. Joe's stock is pointless to us 'outsiders'. Instead, why not focus only on the price action? Some of the top traders in the world are trend followers. This method is time-tested and proven to work equally well on for stocks, currencies, commodities, etc. One does not need to know anything about the fundamentals of the underlying markets being traded.
SoWal Expert
Welcome back to the playground.
Just for the fun, on the day I proposed the JOE/INTC throwdown, I made a Fantasy Portfolio (FP) of the two stocks.
I put $2K in each stock at the closing price on Nov 4th (the day you named as the start date matching JOE against a list of nose-bleeding high-flyers).
You turned down my proposal to pit INTC against JOE, instead wanting to offer JOE against SPY, (which I declined--because apparently in some parallel universe--I upgraded JOE to a buy :roll
The FP results as of closing today:
STOCK/VALUE/GAIN-LOSS
INTC/$2015.73/+0.79%
SPY/$1,967.78/-1.61%
JOE/1,776.89/-11.16%
Shelly, you are starting to sound like people who looked at their home value every day. I thought it was supposed to be about time in the market, not timing the market.
SoWal Insider
Shelly, you are starting to sound like people who looked at their home value every day. I thought it was supposed to be about time in the market, not timing the market.
This is simply a little game that bled over from this thread: http://www.sowal.com/bb/real-estate-discussion/51890-time-buy-joe.html
No liar loans...no granite...no stainless steel...no Pergo?.
.
Edited
Beach Fanatic
...so, the insiders at JOE are telling the hedgies that the company is a piece of crap worth shorting?
.
nah but that would be hilarious. They are being investigated for possible insider trading in regards to other now defunct/defunked companies, as you already know I'm pretty sure.
SoWal Expert
This is simply a little game that bled over from this thread: http://www.sowal.com/bb/real-estate-discussion/51890-time-buy-joe.htmlI got that part very clearly. It's just that robertdavies started by saying that JOE was a buy and hold for 50 years, and 18 days later, you are trying to show him that your choice is performing better than his 50 year choice. I think your end date for this wager is May 2011, so it is really pointless to announce the stock prices before then -- It's like you the part, "you don't make or lose money until you sell it." In this case, there is no winner of the wager until May 2011. You know how the market can shift drastically in the short term, so don't be counting any chickens.
No liar loans...no granite...no stainless steel...no Pergo?.
.
Edited
Beach Lover
Shelly, you are starting to sound like people who looked at their home value every day. I thought it was supposed to be about time in the market, not timing the market.
People's homes are not liquid investments with low transactional costs, nor should they be a means of creating wealth.
SoWal Insider
I think your end date for this wager is May 2011, so it is really pointless to announce the stock prices before then -- It's like you the part, "you don't make or lose money until you sell it." In this case, there is no winner of the wager until May 2011. You know how the market can shift drastically in the short term, so don't be counting any chickens.
...this is not real--it's a game, it's not "investing" (hence the name Fantasy Portfolio)--it's more along the lines of a horse race. Can you imagine the Kentucky Derby without someone calling the race?
SoWal Expert
Shelly, don't tell me that you are actually having fun, and that people are allowed to get excited about their own choice of spending money, even if it is just for fun.
SoWal Insider
Shelly, don't tell me that you are actually having fun, and that people are allowed to get excited about their own choice of spending money, even if it is just for fun.
Let me clarify a few things:
(1) I'm having fun...but it's not costing me anything.
(2) The "wager" end date wasn't of my choosing--robertsondavies chose the timeframe November 4th, until May 15, 201.
(3) There really is no "wager" since robertsondavis turned down my offer to wager $50 to charity (versus his offer of CROCS and a cheap beer) because instead of accepting my choice of stock, he wanted me to select a stock from a list that he proposed to run against JOE (what the hell is that about??).
(4) I'm all for people having fun losing their own money--it's when they try to convince others it's a good thing for them...and to lock their money away for 50 years???? Come on!
.
.
SoWal Expert
Now you sound all serious again. Snap out of it, Shelly. 8)
SoWal Insider
Now you sound all serious again. Snap out of it, Shelly. 8)
Not a problem--nothing a little tryptophan won't cure.
BTW, CROX eclipsed JOE today--I bet no one saw that coming :roll:
CROX hit a 52 week high while JOE hit a 52 week low...coincidence?
There, that helped.
Happy Turkey Day!
.
Edited
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