back in 2006 I suggested to folks to short JOE, if they couldn't sell there home in South Walton, as a proxy for doing the same. I think the pendulum has swung ridiculously far to the negative side, and that the Short Joe trade is cooked, done. I think it's time to buy JOE, and lock the shares away for 50 years.
good luck to all.
Replies
179
SoWal Insider
What about dollar cost averaging? That might be fun to watch with INTC and JOE, buying $100 of each per week for the next year.
Go for it...and reinvest the quarterly INTC dividends.
.
Edited
SoWal Insider
Fantasy Portfolio Results (as of market close Dec 3):
STOCK/VALUE/GAIN-LOSS
INTC/$2,068.66/+3.43%
SPY/$2,010.31/+0.52%
JOE/$1,847.29/-7.64%
($2,000 put in each stock effective on market close Nov 4th)
Fantasy Portfolio Results (as of market close Dec 10):
STOCK/VALUE/GAIN-LOSS
INTC/$2,089.64/+4.48%
SPY/$2,036.32/+1.82%
JOE/$1,814.57/-9.27%
($2,000 put in each stock effective on market close Nov 4th)
I'll be out of town starting Tuesday, (got a star I'm following--no, it's not Miley Cyrus) will post results for next Friday's close when I get back.
Edited
Beach Comber
;-);-)
Fantasy Portfolio Results (as of market close Dec 10):
STOCK/VALUE/GAIN-LOSS
INTC/$2,089.64/+4.48%
SPY/$2,036.32/+1.82%
JOE/$1,814.57/-9.27%
($2,000 put in each stock effective on market close Nov 4th)
I'll be out of town starting Tuesday, (got a star I'm following--no, it's not Miley Cyrus) will post results for next Friday's close when I get back.
Beach Comber
...when following that star, make sure you don't end up in a manger, with a donkey and such.
SoWal Insider
...when following that star, make sure you don't end up in a manger, with a donkey and such.
...nah--just taking a little GLD--not to sure about the market for frankincense and myrrh futures though.
Beach Comber
Insiders say...
Hey Kurt, Insiders say that JOE has become a takeover target by one of their largest shareholders. Watch
Hey Kurt, Insiders say that JOE has become a takeover target by one of their largest shareholders. Watch
Beach FanaticAuthor
Unofficial Closes Nov. 4th.
INTC: $20.97 (Current share price: $21.69)
SPY: $122.26 (Current share price: $122.89)
JOE: $20.17 (Current share price: $18.63)
Unofficial Prices This morning after market open:
JOE: 20.43 up about 1.2% since Nov. 4th close
INTC: 21.26 up about 1.2% since Nov. 4th close
SPY: 123.96 up about 1.35% since Nov. 4th close.
These are unofficial intraday prices, and have not been approved by this thread's moderator as official.
Anyway, this thread is going to be interesting to watch over time, no matter how it works out. I look forward to the next official update;
thanks Shelly for putting those out.
INTC: $20.97 (Current share price: $21.69)
SPY: $122.26 (Current share price: $122.89)
JOE: $20.17 (Current share price: $18.63)
Unofficial Prices This morning after market open:
JOE: 20.43 up about 1.2% since Nov. 4th close
INTC: 21.26 up about 1.2% since Nov. 4th close
SPY: 123.96 up about 1.35% since Nov. 4th close.
These are unofficial intraday prices, and have not been approved by this thread's moderator as official.
Anyway, this thread is going to be interesting to watch over time, no matter how it works out. I look forward to the next official update;
thanks Shelly for putting those out.
Beach FanaticAuthor
Fantasy Portfolio Results (as of market close Dec 10):
STOCK/VALUE/GAIN-LOSS
INTC/$2,089.64/+4.48%
SPY/$2,036.32/+1.82%
JOE/$1,814.57/-9.27%
($2,000 put in each stock effective on market close Nov 4th)
I'll be out of town starting Tuesday, (got a star I'm following--no, it's not Miley Cyrus) will post results for next Friday's close when I get back.
Shelly, hope you've had a good trip, and a safe return. What star were you following?
Beach Fanatic
Beach FanaticAuthor
Einhorn = Vanity ---, not even his own work, for the most part on the JOE short idea here. one of his junior guys, who has been trained by the last decade that the glass is always half empty.
He has no idea what 30A is about... Berkowitz has done the work, and he can understand that somewhere outside of South Florida is desirable (perhaps because he is a full time south Florida resident??) ... he understands that it is the playground, retirement destination of choice of the confederacy plus texas, plus the lower midwest. Einhorn dismisses South Walton as a typical Yankee would b/c there are no Nathan hot dogs stands, no gang violence, no obnoxious people from Long Island hanging out comparing engagement ring sizes, and most of all very few obnoxious yankees. The yanks that appreciate South Walton, are wisely keeping it a secret so far, outside of Berko.
Vanity...
Einhorn smart, and vain. Look out, I think Ackman, Paulson and Buffet are about to join Berkowitz is figuring out that Einhorn's work on JOE was very very shoddy, and surprisingly negative for a company with such a balance sheet. Einhorn has forgotten the number one rule of shorting, you should have a catalyst, b/c time works against you, and this is especially the case with JOE.
He has no idea what 30A is about... Berkowitz has done the work, and he can understand that somewhere outside of South Florida is desirable (perhaps because he is a full time south Florida resident??) ... he understands that it is the playground, retirement destination of choice of the confederacy plus texas, plus the lower midwest. Einhorn dismisses South Walton as a typical Yankee would b/c there are no Nathan hot dogs stands, no gang violence, no obnoxious people from Long Island hanging out comparing engagement ring sizes, and most of all very few obnoxious yankees. The yanks that appreciate South Walton, are wisely keeping it a secret so far, outside of Berko.
Vanity...
Einhorn smart, and vain. Look out, I think Ackman, Paulson and Buffet are about to join Berkowitz is figuring out that Einhorn's work on JOE was very very shoddy, and surprisingly negative for a company with such a balance sheet. Einhorn has forgotten the number one rule of shorting, you should have a catalyst, b/c time works against you, and this is especially the case with JOE.
Beach FanaticAuthor
I was just settling down to a nice pumpkin spice latte, and was wondering if my updated brokerage statement, about my hypothetical $2000 investments would be forthcoming.
Thanks
B. Berkowitz
Beach Lover
Dude, you don't use DCF's on unpredictable, cyclical businesses. second, a 10% discount rate is laughable. Third, Einhorn had a price target of $20 when the stock was much higher, and recently updated that to low teens, so he could cover his short more profitability. Fourth, Einhorn's next 13-F report will show he coverd a bunch, if not all of his bet over the last 4 weeks. Will your 13-F show something different? Did you get short recently?
Yo, dude, please enlighten us on how you would value the company. And, dude, you are probably right, a 10% discount rate is laughably LOW for the risk associated with this company. The company has little true long term value due to the fact that most of its holdings are inland swampy land.
Did not short, don't like betting for a company to fail.
Looking forward to hearing your analysis of how to value the company.
Beach Lover
So you think CROX or INTEL have more longevity and lasting ability to innovate, than a company that is a Land Trust? Thanks for your opinions though, appreciate that you think its a slam dunk that Intel will not be usurped or surpassed, yet Real Estate in Florida to hold for the next 50 years is a guaranteed loser now??? Dude where were you in 2005?
Crox, no. Intel, yes. But, at least both actually make things. Joe has land, lots of worthless land and some with value. Net, net--company won't be making any money in the short or long term. They were a one hit, real estate bubble wonder.
Beach FanaticAuthor
Crox, no. Intel, yes. But, at least both actually make things. Joe has land, lots of worthless land and some with value. Net, net--company won't be making any money in the short or long term. They were a one hit, real estate bubble wonder.
So you're shorting hard assets? Shorting them now? After the 80% off sale? Good luck with that sir?
Beach Lover
Dude. When did I say I was shorting anything??
Again, what method would you use to value JOE? Also, what is it you believe JOE will be doing in 50 years?
Again, what method would you use to value JOE? Also, what is it you believe JOE will be doing in 50 years?
Beach FanaticAuthor
Dude. When did I say I was shorting anything??
Again, what method would you use to value JOE? Also, what is it you believe JOE will be doing in 50 years?
well, if you're neutral about JOE, then you won't mind me not sharing my valuation methods with you, because they are quite lengthy, and at the end of the day, there is no scientific call that says, yeah or nay on either overvaluation or undervaluation. To answer your question in 50 years, I expect INTC to have squandered their ephemeral run in price moated branded CPU semiconductors, and will be like Motorola only smaller. In 50 yrs, I expect JOE to have sold off and developed 70-80% of its acreage, and reinvested the proceeds in 4 things, share buybacks, dividends, nursing home operations & casino/resort operations on the pandhandle. I expect the company will split into two companies within the next 25 years, an operating company with nursing homes, developed leased commercial real estate, casinos and resorts, and a separate smaller compny holding the remaining land, in trust.
P.S., pre 2006 I was urging people to short JOE, if they felt like they didn't want to sell their vacation home/land on the pandhandle - so I haven't always had such a rosey view on the big JOE
Edited
Beach FanaticAuthor
Fantasy Portfolio Results (as of market close Dec 10):
STOCK/VALUE/GAIN-LOSS
INTC/$2,089.64/+4.48%
SPY/$2,036.32/+1.82%
JOE/$1,814.57/-9.27%
($2,000 put in each stock effective on market close Nov 4th)
I'll be out of town starting Tuesday, (got a star I'm following--no, it's not Miley Cyrus) will post results for next Friday's close when I get back.
Since SHELLY is delayed getting back, here is an unoffical tally based on the open of markets today. Interesting turnaround. God speed Shelly. RESULTS UNOFFICIAL
STOCK/VALUE/GAIN-LOSS
INTC/$2,028.61/ +1.42%
SPY/$2,044.65/ +2.23
JOE/$2,117/ +5.88%
($2,000 put in each stock effective on market close Nov 4th)
Edited
Beach Lover
well, if you're neutral about JOE, then you won't mind me not sharing my valuation methods with you, because they are quite lengthy, and at the end of the day, there is no scientific call that says, yeah or nay on either overvaluation or undervaluation. To answer your question in 50 years, I expect INTC to have squandered their ephemeral run in price moated branded CPU semiconductors, and will be like Motorola only smaller. In 50 yrs, I expect JOE to have sold off and developed 70-80% of its acreage, and reinvested the proceeds in 4 things, share buybacks, dividends, nursing home operations & casino/resort operations on the pandhandle. I expect the company will split into two companies within the next 25 years, an operating company with nursing homes, developed leased commercial real estate, casinos and resorts, and a separate smaller compny holding the remaining land, in trust.
P.S., pre 2006 I was urging people to short JOE, if they felt like they didn't want to sell their vacation home/land on the pandhandle - so I haven't always had such a rosey view on the big JOE
So, pre 2006, when JOE had lots more acreage, real estate values were sky high, revenues approaching $1 BILLION and net income exceeding $100 MILLION, you said short. At the time, the company was valued at roughly 5-6 times revenue and 25-30 times EBITDA.
Now, with less acreage, much lower real estate values, revenues of less than $100 million and annual losses of $50 to $70 million, you are saying buy and hold for 50 years?? At a current valuation of roughly $2 billion, the company is trading at 20 TIMES REVENUE.
Or, to put it another way. What did you think the enterprise value of JOE was when the company had almonst $1 BILLION in revenue and you said short? And, now, with less than $100 million in revenue and continuing losses, what is your current thought on the enterprise value of JOE and you say buy? (Really looking forward to this answer).
Why the change of heart? Why did you feel JOE was so overvalued pre 2006 when real estate was raging and JOE had lots more raw land?? Now, with fewer assets, lower real estate asset values and a HUGE valuation premium, you say buy and hold??
The company now has about 10% of the revenue it had in 2005 and JOE is BLEEDING cash (excluding tax refunds) versus generating tons of FCF in 2005, yet the stock price is still trading at about 33% of the average price in the 2005-2006 period.
HMM???
Edited
Beach Lover
well, if you're neutral about JOE, then you won't mind me not sharing my valuation methods with you, because they are quite lengthy, and at the end of the day, there is no scientific call that says, yeah or nay on either overvaluation or undervaluation. To answer your question in 50 years, I expect INTC to have squandered their ephemeral run in price moated branded CPU semiconductors, and will be like Motorola only smaller. In 50 yrs, I expect JOE to have sold off and developed 70-80% of its acreage, and reinvested the proceeds in 4 things, share buybacks, dividends, nursing home operations & casino/resort operations on the pandhandle. I expect the company will split into two companies within the next 25 years, an operating company with nursing homes, developed leased commercial real estate, casinos and resorts, and a separate smaller compny holding the remaining land, in trust.
P.S., pre 2006 I was urging people to short JOE, if they felt like they didn't want to sell their vacation home/land on the pandhandle - so I haven't always had such a rosey view on the big JOE
They won't be able to cover operating costs for many, many years. How in the world will they ever pay a dividend or have $ to reinvest in other assets. JOE didn't pay a dividend even during the real esate bubble days.
JOE won't be around in 5 years much less 50.
Still would like to get a brief glimpse into the valuation methodology you used to determine JOE is a great buy at current prices and why given the long time (ie:never) it will take to generate a profit that there is any room for growth (ie: to even keep pace with inflation) in the current stock price.
Beach FanaticAuthor
JOE won't be around in 5 years much less 50.
.
... if you really KNOW that's what's going to happen, then why the HECK don't you get yourself a margin trading account, and short the bejesus out of JOE?
The only way I see JOE not being around in 5 years in its present form, is if it has been taken over, publicly or privately.
Beach Lover
... if you really KNOW that's what's going to happen, then why the HECK don't you get yourself a margin trading account, and short the bejesus out of JOE?
The only way I see JOE not being around in 5 years in its present form, is if it has been taken over, publicly or privately.
Still waiting to hear how you valued JOE pre 2006 and how you are valuing it now.
You were negative JOE with a $5-6 Billion valuation when they had $1 billion in revenue. Now you are pro JOE with a $2 billion valuation and only $100 million in revenue.
Just wanting to understand your valuation methodology because it doesn't seem to make sense.
Beach FanaticAuthor
Still waiting to hear how you valued JOE pre 2006 and how you are valuing it now.
You were negative JOE with a $5-6 Billion valuation when they had $1 billion in revenue. Now you are pro JOE with a $2 billion valuation and only $100 million in revenue.
Just wanting to understand your valuation methodology because it doesn't seem to make sense.
Homeboy, most of my valuation work, decidedly non discounted cash flow oriented, was done, after wathing the following video, which I imaged as Alys Beach Circa 2060... I particulary like the accordian ditty, and I think it is a better method for picking stocks than yours, which seems to be: buy cyclical companies when they appear cheap, and short them when their revenue mutliples appear expense -
watch the video, smoke a bowl, think about what I just typed with regard to cyclical companies. cheers.
When you watch the video, imagine you're pausing at the Calizza pool (which is featured mid way in the video) and just imagine how you might be wrong in the future.
YouTube - Edward Maya & Vika Jigulina - Stereo Love (OFFICIAL VIDEO)
Edited
Beach Lover
Homeboy, most of my valuation work, decidedly non discounted cash flow oriented, was done, after wathing the following video, which I imaged as Alys Beach Circa 2060... I particulary like the accordian ditty, and I think it is a better method for picking stocks than yours, which seems to be: buy cyclical companies when they appear cheap, and short them when their revenue mutliples appear expense -
watch the video, smoke a bowl, think about what I just typed with regard to cyclical companies. cheers.
When you watch the video, imagine you're pausing at the Calizza pool (which is featured mid way in the video) and just imagine how you might be wrong in the future.
YouTube - Edward Maya & Vika Jigulina - Stereo Love (OFFICIAL VIDEO)
In other words---you don't have a reasonable answer to the questions.
Back to the post that started this thread--recommending a stock buy without any basis for the recommendation.
Nuff said.
Beach FanaticAuthor
In other words---you don't have a reasonable answer to the questions.YouTube - buy the dip
Back to the post that started this thread--recommending a stock buy without any basis for the recommendation.
Nuff said.
Edited
SoWal Insider
Happy New Years My Friends and Foes!
My first order of business for Smiling Joe:
JOE BEAT INTEL
JOE BEAT INTEL
JOE BEAT INTEL
Thanks to RD for posting the updates in my absence...here is the latest results of the fantasy portfolio:
_____________________________________________________
Fantasy Portfolio Results (as of market close Dec 30):
STOCK/VALUE/GAIN-LOSS
JOE/$2,166.58/+8.33%
SPY/$2057.09/+2.85%
INTC/$2005.72/+0.29%
($2,000 put in each stock effective on market close Nov 4th)
______________________________________________________
With that out of the way...what a couple of weeks it's been for me!!
First, I've personally survived "Planes, Trains and Automobiles--The Sequel!" both coming and going through Europe--Oy Vey! We were better off than most, thanks to the hospitality of friends and acquaintances abroad who put us up when we got stuck.
Once we thought we were in the clear--it was "Planes, Trains and Automobiles--The Three-quel!!" here in the states...more snow & ice in the Northeast!
Then, come to find out I missed the "Mother of All Squeeze Plays" and JOE selling their soul to the devil by bringing Berkowitz and Fernandez on to the board of directors!
But, what I find most disturbing, is that our area has now become Fairholmes' Biyatch, :shock: and anyone who knows anything about this type of (in Fairholmes case) "non-Hedge Fund," they're all for wringing out every single, bloody dollar they can get to gain profit for themselves and their shareholders...good news for JOE stockholders(?) but discomforting as to the future direction of this area.
On well--for Auld Lang Syne, ya'll....on with the game and 2011!
Shel.
My first order of business for Smiling Joe:
JOE BEAT INTEL
JOE BEAT INTEL
JOE BEAT INTEL
Thanks to RD for posting the updates in my absence...here is the latest results of the fantasy portfolio:
_____________________________________________________
Fantasy Portfolio Results (as of market close Dec 30):
STOCK/VALUE/GAIN-LOSS
JOE/$2,166.58/+8.33%
SPY/$2057.09/+2.85%
INTC/$2005.72/+0.29%
($2,000 put in each stock effective on market close Nov 4th)
______________________________________________________
With that out of the way...what a couple of weeks it's been for me!!
First, I've personally survived "Planes, Trains and Automobiles--The Sequel!" both coming and going through Europe--Oy Vey! We were better off than most, thanks to the hospitality of friends and acquaintances abroad who put us up when we got stuck.
Once we thought we were in the clear--it was "Planes, Trains and Automobiles--The Three-quel!!" here in the states...more snow & ice in the Northeast!
Then, come to find out I missed the "Mother of All Squeeze Plays" and JOE selling their soul to the devil by bringing Berkowitz and Fernandez on to the board of directors!
But, what I find most disturbing, is that our area has now become Fairholmes' Biyatch, :shock: and anyone who knows anything about this type of (in Fairholmes case) "non-Hedge Fund," they're all for wringing out every single, bloody dollar they can get to gain profit for themselves and their shareholders...good news for JOE stockholders(?) but discomforting as to the future direction of this area.
On well--for Auld Lang Syne, ya'll....on with the game and 2011!
Shel.
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