Time to buy JOE

The St. Joe Company up 6.1%.... TODAY

up 30% in the last few weeks.

Shelly is this a leading indicator? Intel is holding its own though, basically flat over the last few weeks.

Intel, use your excess cash and buy some real estate in Florida, it is a good place to retire as you go in run off mode, as Personal Computers trend toward shells' attached to the web and the cloud, and then later toward obsolescence, and their processors, fast becoming non mission critical commodity are increasingly made by first AMD, and then Acme.

Shelly?

Bueller?

JOE up only 2.5% today -

how could JOE be up another 2.5% today, and 1% yesterday while the market sells off?

How is it possible? I thought JOE was going down, so shorting it, like David Einhorn, would provide folks with free investment gains, because everyone knows how bad things are in South Walton.

Today's update - JOE up 3.75% so far

what a positive indicator for South Walton, and the people who love it.

today, here are the three biggest headllines:

1. Weekly Unemployment Claims dip to the lowest since October 2008.

2. Existing Home Sales Surged in December- Reuters

3. Leading indicators rise 1% in December- AP

Former Fairholme Managers to Launch Mutual Fund - Morningstar Advisor

Former Fairholme managers start a new mutual fund....things that make you go...hmm.

Former Fairholme Managers to Launch Mutual Fund - Morningstar Advisor

Former Fairholme managers start a new mutual fund....things that make you go...hmm.

...

Former Fairholme Managers to Launch Mutual Fund - Morningstar Advisor

Former Fairholme managers start a new mutual fund....things that make you go...hmm.

what is making you go hmmmm about this?
You see that these are former Fund managers who used to work at Fairholme years ago,,, this isn't Fairholme launching another fund right.

mutual funds, they are started and closed all the time, by the thousands literally, and the underperforming ones are quietly closed with little fanfare, as people are advised to take a swing at the next "promising" or "top decile (looking backwards) mutual fund. i wish people would take more individual stocks in their portfolios or have their brokers do the same.

JOE up another 3.8% today! like groundhogs day

all over again

then again, no one cares anymore.
There used to be hundreds of people at any one time viewing this Real Estate discussion at the peak..

...and then, slowly but surely, the eyeballs have gone away, one by one. and the best part of all is that most of the informed opinions left on this sub-board now agree that real estate, including South Waltons' real estate, and land trust stocks like JOE can't go up in value - that would defy their sense of gravity now. The Realtor beatings shall continue until morale improves.

And they have the newspaper, blog and magazine articles to back up their dire viewpoints . . .

Correction, JOE up 6.7% for the day !!!

crickets, as the biggest public face of business in South Walton, is up another 6.7% today, just like damn near every day lately...

In the last couple hours, JOE returned more than your Bank CD will return you in the next 3 years.

It isn't crickets, it is an unwillingness to keep retyping the same response just because a stock that tanked is up lately.

Woo-hoo! The stock is worth almost half of what it was in 2006. :roll:

How many 100s of K were you willing to risk in this stock?

The market went over 12,000 today.

Yet Joe is still only trading at a fraction of its price in recent years and even with the fabulous gains you keep posting about has only recouped enough value to match its May price.

It pays no dividends.

You obviously have a very different idea of good market performance than I do. ;-)

It isn't crickets, it is an unwillingness to keep retyping the same response just because a stock that tanked is up lately.

Woo-hoo! The stock is worth almost half of what it was in 2006. :roll:

Were you suggesting people short JOE in 2005, as I? Please tell.

Scooterbug, let me guess. You were positive in 2005/2006 and are negative now. great, you're a great contrarian indicator, and part of my formula actually. Thanks a bunch.

Not only did I suggest to people to short the stock back in 2006 if they couldn't sell their home in South Walton (i.e. folks with primary residences there). So thanks for pointing out how far the stock had fallen since those heady times, thanks for playing.

Secondly, I don't recall you saying to buy it in early November , am I incorrect? Is that why you're poo pooing 45% gains in 8 weeks, not to mention a HUGE POSITIVE leading indicator for South Walton's economic vibrancy and health.

The market went over 12,000 today.

Yet Joe is still only trading at a fraction of its price in recent years and even with the fabulous gains you keep posting about has only recouped enough value to match its May price.

It pays no dividends.

You obviously have a very different idea of good market performance than I do. ;-)

BUZZ, are you thanking Scooterbug in your official role as a financial advisor? I appreciate you weighing in on investments, but invesetment advisors are not really supposed to do that anymore, (which I think is an abdication of their responsibility)

Financial advisors now-a-days are supposed to steer clear of real debates about markets or stocks, or else risk being a "stock jockey". Your sales manager wants you out there gathering assets, not putting yourself on the line as to whether or not those assets are good buys or sells. That's not in vogue anymore, although it should be. They are supposed to gather assets, and outsource that function to "fund managers" and "low cost ETFs" now. They are supposed to say "stay the course", be "well diversified", and help you "follow a personalized plan, depending on your age, goals income" to maintain a globally balanced portfolio of investments, diversified by asset class, geography and style, and placed in the Funds with stellar [backward looking] track records of proven performance"

Buzz stay the course. Gather assets. Don't predict, especially don't predict the future.

Thanks

Far better stocks to buy IMO. Nothing about Joe's recent actions make me think it's a good buy.

Scooterbug, with JOE up nearly 50%, since you utterred these words a couple months back, is there anything about Joe's recent actions that makes you think its a good buy now? I hope not.

Scooterbug, with JOE up nearly 50%, since you utterred these words a couple months back, is there anything about Joe's recent actions that makes you think its a good buy now? I hope not.

Nope, my position remains unchanged.

Joe as a stock does not meet any of my investment criteria.

Nope, my position remains unchanged.

Joe as a stock does not meet any of my investment criteria.

forget the stock then what about South Walton? Is it beautiful?
To me its the most beautiful beach in the North America. It dawned on me while in Park City a few short weeks ago, and I came upon listings for shacks that were "walk to lift, walk to town" for a two and three milliion apiece, and it hit me right there very hard that not only was I right about JOE, but that at least on a relative basis, South Walton was incredibly undervalued, as opposed to mountain real estate out west. Beach real estate is more unique than its given credit for currently, and the BP spill and the 04-06 Hurricane spike has put the undervaluation to out-of- control levels. Afterall, they could put 50 more Park Cities up in Northeast Utah, on any given mountain ridge they choose, and same goes for Aspen or Vail and on and on, but there really isn't that much lineal beach frontage as pricing in South Walton would make one now believe, and South Walton has the unbelievably unique characteristic of no buildings over 48 feet (or thereabouts??), which is an exponentially limiting factor over the long term for units when you look at what can be very close to the beach.

I'm not saying mountain vs. beach. I'm saying that if I can buy a run down "walk to lifts" 3 br home in Park City, where I want to spend 14 days a year, for 2.7 Million, shouldn't a similarly run down 1750 sq. ft 3 bedroom in Seagrove or Seacreste that I can walk to the beach or Seaside be worth more a bit more than 270K, if not 2.7 M?? I say long JOE, and if in doubt, short MTN against it.


That's all for now folks, I'll check back in a few weeks.

Enjoyed it.

The limited number of near ocean acreage has some value but the rest of it is only worth the value of the timber. The can't give away already developed lots in very near ocean locations such as The Preserve, Cypress Dunes, Cypress Breeze, etc. What makes you think the swamp land much farther from the beach will sell for more than the lots in these near ocean developments.

Really? Did you say that? You are going to compare Cypress Breeze to WaterSound, WaterColor, The Retreat, or any other JOE development? Have you ever been to the Flintstone-like pool? Have you ever seen the inconsistency of homes in there? What amenities are in there?

The Preserve does have tennis courts and a pool but it doesn't have parks or much landscaping, nor does it have a sense of community like any St Joe project.

Cypress Dunes is a much better comparison to a JOE property. Cypress Dunes has actually had several lot sales in the last six months and about the same number under contract. One problem with Cypress Dunes compared to the other St JOE properties in South Walton is a lack of access to beach or water activities. The clubhouse has a nice pool with a nice view, but the closest beach access has two parking places and one is handicapped only. It is about 2 miles from the beach club. The second closest beach access is a regional access with bathrooms, but the parking lot holds about twenty cars, and fills up fast in the summer. They have no direct access to Stallworth Lake. In comparison, WaterColor, WaterSound, and The Retreat have not only direct access to the beach, but also, each is on a coastal dune lake with direct access. WaterSound (formerly WaterSound North) has direct access to Lake Powell. It wasn't planned as a beach community. It was planned as a full time community. It features a golf course and has much commercial development planned. JOE is also pushing for a direct access road from WaterSound to the new PCB airport. Cypress Dunes does not have that. The main problem with Cypress Dunes is that they tried to sell it as a beach community, when it really isn't a beach community. Don't get me wrong. Cypress Dunes is a nice development, but it was sold as something it is not. It would be better compared to a WaterSound (formerly known as "North"), but it doesn't have the amenities and future planned draw.

I think South Walton is gorgeous and a wonderful area - but they don't sell stock in it.

Would love to invest in some local businesses, but none of the ones I love are publicly traded (at least to my knowledge).

I think it's time to buy JOE, and lock the shares away for 50 years.

.

I have watched with great amusement over the past few months as you went from a buy and hold for 50 years guy (with no supporting data for your position) to a day trader touting the daily increase in price for JOE.

How many times have you bought and sold over the past few months? Or, as per your first post, did you really buy and are you holding for 50 years?

Looks like JOE's number may be up--management realizes the company doesn't have any significant long term value so they are looking for the greater fool.

So, if JOE sells, will you sell along with the rest of the shareholders (that is if you even own any shares) or will you really stick along for the ride for 50 years.

I still contend that whoever owns these assets for the next 50 years will never, ever realize anywhere near the current value placed on the company.

Would still love to see your support for the current or higher valuation.

If you start back at the beginning of the thread, you will note that it was Shelly who was giving the weekly announcements of stock price, because he said it was a game and fun to do. robertdavies is just doing the same. They have a wager and want to make it fun.

forget the stock then what about South Walton? Is it beautiful?
To me its the most beautiful beach in the North America. It dawned on me while in Park City a few short weeks ago, and I came upon listings for shacks that were "walk to lift, walk to town" for a two and three milliion apiece, and it hit me right there very hard that not only was I right about JOE, but that at least on a relative basis, South Walton was incredibly undervalued, as opposed to mountain real estate out west. Beach real estate is more unique than its given credit for currently, and the BP spill and the 04-06 Hurricane spike has put the undervaluation to out-of- control levels. Afterall, they could put 50 more Park Cities up in Northeast Utah, on any given mountain ridge they choose, and same goes for Aspen or Vail and on and on, but there really isn't that much lineal beach frontage as pricing in South Walton would make one now believe, and South Walton has the unbelievably unique characteristic of no buildings over 48 feet (or thereabouts??), which is an exponentially limiting factor over the long term for units when you look at what can be very close to the beach.

I'm not saying mountain vs. beach. I'm saying that if I can buy a run down "walk to lifts" 3 br home in Park City, where I want to spend 14 days a year, for 2.7 Million, shouldn't a similarly run down 1750 sq. ft 3 bedroom in Seagrove or Seacreste that I can walk to the beach or Seaside be worth more a bit more than 270K, if not 2.7 M?? I say long JOE, and if in doubt, short MTN against it.


That's all for now folks, I'll check back in a few weeks.

Enjoyed it.

This area will get like that in time. South Walton is small. There's very little sought after, developable land here. The problem with Joe is they don't own any of this land anymore! They sold it all off which was made pretty clear in that presentation.

They spent millions relocating thier key executives to Walton County, despite eight straight quarters of non-stop losses and burning cash. Their CEO waived paying the St. Joe Foundation fee when he purchased his home in Watercolor, because he is apparently special. A month before they sue BP for $1B, their CEO tells the press the oil spill really hasn't affected JOE because they are not really a residential company anymore, rather more of a commercial company. They donate land to build an airport in a swamp that his continually fogged in (I have been returned to Atlanta twice already and my Mom spent the night in Orlando due to fog), based on the premise that build it and they will come. Who is coming to the airport? There is no distribution need to be locatd next to the airport, nor is their freight capacity. Hotels? Why would you stay there when you can drive ten minutes and be on the beach. Management simply has no clue, and now they are losing control of the Board of Directors to outside investors due to their inept management.

I think South Walton is gorgeous and a wonderful area - but they don't sell stock in it.

Would love to invest in some local businesses, but none of the ones I love are publicly traded (at least to my knowledge).

Rarely have I seen you so wrong. There probably are very few pockets in America more represented by one publicly traded company that acts as a proxy for the value of said area as JOE for South Walton. Sure, Joe's holdings go beyond south walton in the Pandhandle, but South Walton's entire economy is tied to real estate essentially and tourism, as is JOE's. Very few areas in America have such a proxy. If you want to buy Atlanta, buying Coke won't do justice to your train of thought, nor AT&T nor UPS... all global businesses, and the same is true of most cities. If you want to be "long" memphis, buying FedEx is related, but doesn't really get you there, as their fortunes are tied to global logistics...

Scooterbug, your statements above are surprisingly ill-considered.

If you start back at the beginning of the thread, you will note that it was Shelly who was giving the weekly announcements of stock price, because he said it was a game and fun to do. robertdavies is just doing the same. They have a wager and want to make it fun.

Thanks.
Well, he (shellly) was giving updates, until it was obvious that Intel was going nowhere, and JOE was going up 50%.