back in 2006 I suggested to folks to short JOE, if they couldn't sell there home in South Walton, as a proxy for doing the same. I think the pendulum has swung ridiculously far to the negative side, and that the Short Joe trade is cooked, done. I think it's time to buy JOE, and lock the shares away for 50 years.
good luck to all.
Replies
179
SoWal Expert
Why would we take MORE stock tips from you? You were completely wrong on your JOE recommendation.
Banned
BRCM long, short INTC.
You're welcome, this ones a freebie.
Sure Lucy. Whatever.
Beach FanaticAuthor
'completely wrong' ok dilbert. you don't like 40% gains in 12 weeks, just because the pick comes back to test the bottom. Setting aside the fact that I outlined a 50 yr hold period, if you make 40% on anything in a couple months, take profits.
As far as JOE goes now. Now, again, is the time to buy JOE for 50 yr hold again. This time, if you make 40% on your money in the short term, you might want to lock in some of those gains, by selling calls.
As far as JOE goes now. Now, again, is the time to buy JOE for 50 yr hold again. This time, if you make 40% on your money in the short term, you might want to lock in some of those gains, by selling calls.
SoWal Insider
'completely wrong' ok dilbert. you don't like 40% gains in 12 weeks, just because the pick comes back to test the bottom. Setting aside the fact that I outlined a 50 yr hold period, if you make 40% on anything in a couple months, take profits.
As far as JOE goes now. Now, again, is the time to buy JOE for 50 yr hold again. This time, if you make 40% on your money in the short term, you might want to lock in some of those gains, by selling calls.
I don't understand this, maybe you could enlighten me. Why would you buy and hold a non-dividend paying stock for 50 years? Where do you anticipate the pay off? Do you expect JOE to start paying a dividend at some point, in which case why purchase before they do? Also, since most folks start investing in the market in their thirties after 50 years they would be eighty, so what would be the point of a 50 year hold? Are you serious about the 50 year time frame, or do you anticipate a run up and expect to sell off shares in the interim? My questions aren't meant as an attack on your idea, I'm just trying to understand why you keep putting this out.
Edited
Banned
'completely wrong' ok dilbert. you don't like 40% gains in 12 weeks, just because the pick comes back to test the bottom. Setting aside the fact that I outlined a 50 yr hold period, if you make 40% on anything in a couple months, take profits.
As far as JOE goes now. Now, again, is the time to buy JOE for 50 yr hold again. This time, if you make 40% on your money in the short term, you might want to lock in some of those gains, by selling calls.
50 years, a lot of us may be long dead. Your short term strategy could apply to any stock. Nothing special or compelling about JOE in that regard when you consider the thousand upon thousand of investment options.
Beach Lover
40% gain was artifical, fueled by rumors that Berkowitz was going to take the company private. It has dropped like a rock since that rumor burned off, and contiues to drop. Anyone that would recommend holding this stock for 50 years should spend some time driving their developments. Their best land is long gone, and anyone that suggests otherwise doesn't have a clue.
Beach Fanatic
Fairholme Fund FAIRX, managed by Morningstar Domestic-Stock Manager of the Decade Bruce Berkowitz, continues to suffer outflows. The fund shed $1.2 billion in estimated outflows in May after experiencing outflows of an estimated $1 billion in April.
This marks the fund's third consecutive month of outflows and brings the three-month total to an estimated $2.5 billion. With the fund down nearly 8% for the year to date through May, total assets have dropped to about $16 billion as of May from about $20 billion in February.
After three months of net redemptions, Berkowitz said during an interview with Bloomberg Television at the 2011 Morningstar Investment Conference that the fund now holds roughly 5% of its assets in cash, which would imply about $800 million in cash holdings. This is a dramatic shift. As of Feb. 28, the fund had about 25% of its then $20 billion portfolio in cash.
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Einhorn on the other hand is buying an interest in the Mets, go figure.
This marks the fund's third consecutive month of outflows and brings the three-month total to an estimated $2.5 billion. With the fund down nearly 8% for the year to date through May, total assets have dropped to about $16 billion as of May from about $20 billion in February.
After three months of net redemptions, Berkowitz said during an interview with Bloomberg Television at the 2011 Morningstar Investment Conference that the fund now holds roughly 5% of its assets in cash, which would imply about $800 million in cash holdings. This is a dramatic shift. As of Feb. 28, the fund had about 25% of its then $20 billion portfolio in cash.
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Einhorn on the other hand is buying an interest in the Mets, go figure.
Edited
Beach FanaticAuthor
'completely wrong' ok dilbert. you don't like 40% gains in 12 weeks, just because the pick comes back to test the bottom. Setting aside the fact that I outlined a 50 yr hold period, if you make 40% on anything in a couple months, take profits.
As far as JOE goes now. Now, again, is the time to buy JOE for 50 yr hold again. This time, if you make 40% on your money in the short term, you might want to lock in some of those gains, by selling calls.
Dilbert, sell some calls tomorrow around noon, to protect this second gift I gave you. This time by tomorrow at noon, you'll have made around 20% in three weeks. sell some calls
Beach Fanatic
Heck of a gift robert. joe collapsed today down 10% today not far from lows again. you've been dead wrong on this
Banned
Heck of a gift robert. joe collapsed today down 10% today not far from lows again. you've been dead wrong on this
He's obnoxious and clueless even by Yahoo message board standards.
Beach Fanatic
clueless? dropped another 3% from 2 hrs ago.i'll buy at $15. i actually made $1.50 on a chunk for 2 weeks ago and dumped. davis has bee puping this since $30
Banned
clueless? dropped another 3% from 2 hrs ago.i'll buy at $15. i actually made $1.50 on a chunk for 2 weeks ago and dumped. davis has bee puping this since $30
I was talking about Robert. There are plenty of stocks for which a trader can capitalize on short term price fluctuations. As I said before, nothing special about JOE in that regard.
SoWal Expert
Didn't I see that Buzz had posted something recently about them being investigated by the SEC?
Beach Fanatic
yes there are many i bought sina at $77 2 or so weeks ago and sold at $86 a day later and it hit $116 today. bought some apple calls when it was around $314 sold a few days later and it hits $350 today
Beach Lover
back in 2006 I suggested to folks to short JOE, if they couldn't sell there home in South Walton, as a proxy for doing the same. I think the pendulum has swung ridiculously far to the negative side, and that the Short Joe trade is cooked, done. I think it's time to buy JOE, and lock the shares away for 50 years.
good luck to all.
At yesterdays close of $14.99, I assume you have put your entire nest egg into JOE.
Beach Comber
Not sure if it was a good or bad day for JOE.
Bad: Kitson purchased his debt on the Babcock Ranch for $49mm...that equates to $536 per acre for 91,000 acres just outside of Ft. Myers...terrible comp for JOE
Good: Rick Scott announced he's running for re-election in 2014. If re-elected, Scott will definitely make sure Florida begins producing electricity from its own natural gas reserves before leaving office. JOE could become an energy play when that happens given their vast amounts of land in NW Florida and coastal assets in Port St. Joe.
Last I looked, almost 80% of the stock's float is shorted!
Bad: Kitson purchased his debt on the Babcock Ranch for $49mm...that equates to $536 per acre for 91,000 acres just outside of Ft. Myers...terrible comp for JOE
Good: Rick Scott announced he's running for re-election in 2014. If re-elected, Scott will definitely make sure Florida begins producing electricity from its own natural gas reserves before leaving office. JOE could become an energy play when that happens given their vast amounts of land in NW Florida and coastal assets in Port St. Joe.
Last I looked, almost 80% of the stock's float is shorted!
SoWal Expert
Did you really just suggest that we should buy stock in JOE because if Scott gets reelected in several years they will start fracking?
Nothing like drilling rigs and carcinogens to improve the value of your high-end vacation land prices!
Nothing like drilling rigs and carcinogens to improve the value of your high-end vacation land prices!
Beach Comber
Did you really just suggest that we should buy stock in JOE because if Scott gets reelected in several years they will start fracking?
No, I did not. There was no buy suggestion or fracking referrence in the post.
SoWal Expert
How were you thinking the natural gas was going to get out of the ground?
Beach Fanatic
lol nice call on sprint . instead of a double it sunk 50% just like joe. for a cheapie stock if it can make it and not go under $3 phm could be a 5-8 bagger if itcan survive till an up cycle
Beach FanaticAuthor
OK, folks.... only 49 years left in my trade idea. So sorry the stock is at 15 and change for folks that didn't take the 70% profit that was available only a few weeks after my last recommendation. How many years does it take to make 70% in a CD now?
We're coming into that time of year again, where the stock can damn near double, from the point of my recommendation last year from 17 to 30 last February... In today's stock market volatility, this is the new reality.
We're coming into that time of year again, where the stock can damn near double, from the point of my recommendation last year from 17 to 30 last February... In today's stock market volatility, this is the new reality.
Beach Lover
You are truly clueless, and I doubt you even have the financial acumen to read and understand their regulatory filings. JOE is a dying company that has only been profitable one quarter in years (and that was as a result of a one-off timber sale), that has sold its best real estate, and has not properly marked to market all of its existing real estate developments (hence the SEC investigation and the class action lawsuit).
Beach Lover
Last year I recommended all my friends buy Molycorp (MCP, they mine rare earth metals) when it was at 30. I told them to hold it for 50 years, but secretly I took profits at its absolute peak of 75 six months later, a profit of 150%! I then repurchased at 50, then sold again at 60. I did this same thing 2 more times. It's now back at 30, but I'm up over 200%! My friends are actually down based on my recommendation, but oh well, the fifty years aren't up yet. I know I'm posting this after the fact, but trust me, I was able to time my buys and sells perfectly at the peaks and troughs each time. I'm thinking of opening up a mutual fund!
SoWal Expert
Greek bonds are paying a high interest rate - let's put all our money in those!
Less risky than JOE.
Less risky than JOE.
Banned
so davies why din't you get us out at $25? i'm sure you boufht at the exact low's
i;ve actually tradeds this 3-4 times in the last 6 months
i;ve actually tradeds this 3-4 times in the last 6 months
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