Just invested a bit of $ in JOE. Any Predictions?

Well, JOE is cheaper than real estate in South Walton. I predict you will see JOE continue to grow. St Joe has recently been buying very large tracks of timberland and river front property in SW Georgia. I have a feeling that they have some very long term plans. The SW Georgia properties are probably a great place to reinvest some of there profits.

I own their stock and I'm in for the long haul - unless I need the cash to buy their land....

I own JOE also, and intend to continue to add to my position. I expect it to outperform over time. Go Joe Go !

St. Joe is the best. They are selling land bought for near nothing for a fortune and reinvesting, tax free, via 1031 law, for more land that is dirt cheap. What a beautiful business model.

If you review the financial statements in the current annual report, you will see that for several years a large percentage of JOE's profit has come from Watercolor. For those of us who own JOE, let's hope that it can find another gold mine like like WC. I hope P.T. Barnum was right.

If you review the financial statements in the current annual report, you will see that for several years a large percentage of JOE's profit has come from Watercolor. For those of us who own JOE, let's hope that it can find another gold mine like like WC. I hope P.T. Barnum was right.

No offense - but if you think the money earned is coming from suckers... :roll:

Hopefully, you're one of those suckers that bought a lot in WaterColor for $150,000.

Hi Paula,

I wrote an article a couple of months ago outlining future growth indicators for the Florida Panhandle and it's Real Estate Market. It has quite a bit about JOE in it. It's located at:

http://www.uniquepanhandleproperties.com/florida_real_estate_investments.htm

Also, did some numbers on watercolor for a client: Looks like lots appreciated at about 57.75% while homes only appreciated at 19.8%. Of course lots of variables but gives us an idea of trends and demand. Sorry if the colums are running into each other but couldnt copy tables. Can email if you'd like.


Watercolor Lot Sales from Pendings in each month

# Pending Low High Ave Price
5/01/04-5/31/04 20 $375,000 $895,000 $545,900
6/01/04-6/30/04 17 $365,000 $1,730,000 $605,412
7/01/04-7/31/04 32 $495,000 $2,500,000 $719,125
8/01/04-8/31/04 22 $580,000 $1,700,000 $717,432
9/01/04-9/30/04 4 $585,000 $1,425,000 $810,000
10/01/04-10/31/04 10 $598,000 $975,000 $732,550
11/01/04-11/30/04 2 $750,000 $750,000 $750,000
12/01/04-12/31/04 1 $815,000 $815,000 $815,000
01/01/05-01/31/05 5 $618,000 $820,000 $762,600
02/01/05-02/28/05 10 $615,000 $832,500 $707,750
03/01/05-03/31/05 14 $635,000 $1,550,000 $858,929
04/01/05-04/30/05 15 $585,000 $1,500,000 $835,000
05/01/05-05/29/05 11 $663,000 $1,200,000 $861,182

Active lots in Watercolor
72 $615,000 $2,650,000 $991,860


Watercolor Home Sales from Pendings in each month

#Pending Low High Ave Price/ft2
5/01/04-5/31/04 8 $849,000 $2,695,000 $568.25
6/01/04-6/30/04 5 $925,000 $1,900,000 $505.78
7/01/04-7/31/04 6 $1,225,000 $2,100,000 $594.94
8/01/04-8/31/04 4 $1,350,000 $2,250,000 $783.87
9/01/04-9/30/04 5 $1,225,000 $2,650,000 $667.50
10/01/04-10/31/04 3 $1,400,000 $1,500,000 $683.53
11/01/04-11/30/04 1 $1,390,000 $1,390,000 $581.59
12/01/04-012/31/04 0
01/01/05-01/31/05 6 $1,250,000 $3,600,000 $744.70
02/01/05-02/28/05 2 $1,350,000 $1,490,000 $658.31
03/01/05-03/31/05 5 $1,440,000 $1,895,000 $724.61
04/01/05-04/31/05 5 $1,595,000 $2,395,000 $782.79
05/01/05-05/22/05 1 $1,995,000 $1,995,000 $680.88

Active homes in Watercolor
39 $1,675,000 $4,200,000 $945.33

Thanks for the info Debbie - I noticed you wrote:

The Florida Panhandle is located in Northwest Florida and is known as the "Forgotten Coast".

The Forgotten Coast of Florida is but a portion of the Panhandle. It is bounded on the West by Mexico Beach, St. Joe Beach and Port St. Joe. Going East you come to Simmons Bayou, Cape San Blas, Indian Pass, Apalachicola, St. George Island, Eastpoint, Carrabelle, Ochlockonee Bay, and Panacea.


Panama City and west to Pensacola has long been known as the Emerald Coast, or the miracle strip.

Thanks for the info Debbie - I noticed you wrote:


The Forgotten Coast of Florida is but a portion of the Panhandle. It is bounded on the West by Mexico Beach, St. Joe Beach and Port St. Joe. Going East you come to Simmons Bayou, Cape San Blas, Indian Pass, Apalachicola, St. George Island, Eastpoint, Carrabelle, Ochlockonee Bay, and Panacea.


Panama City and west to Pensacola has long been known as the Emerald Coast, or the miracle strip.

Hi Kurt,

Oops. You're absolutely right. Wish I had you proof it a month ago. It was picked up by New Construction Magazine whose reprinting it in June but I think it's too late to change. Maybe they can do a correction. Thanks again. If you have time, take a look at an article theyre publishing in the fall edition about preconstruction :

http://www.uniquepanhandleproperties.com/real_estate_investing_preconstruction_florida.htm

If you don't mind, I'll post future articles to the board for your guys comments since this is the most knowledgeable group about the area that I've seen. Thanks again.

Debbie :clap_1:

Good stuff. :clap_1:


I've heard a few people say that around here that some developers are adding some appreciation in to their sales prices, and the margins are getting thinner.

I kinda agree with them that the developers are getting greedy. There's been several precons recently where the developers have raised reservation prices significantly at contract time. 2 years ago I would have said that's the kiss of death for a developer but they're just sucking up the drop outs and reselling. The problem with that is that when the buyer sits for a year on his "reservation" for something that's his top end price of say $500K he's priced out of the market when the developer raises the price to 700K a year later and everything else has gone up. Had that happen to a lady and she could have had a DSF when she signed the reservation for a 500K condo but when the developer raised the price to 700K, all the DSF homes as well as comparable condos had gone up proportionately and she just couldn't afford more than 500K. Not much on 30A for 500K now. She should have just bought when that was the price. I try to tell people all the time that the market is gonna go up uniformly, old or new construction, doesnt matter - just get in while you can.

I've got a client that just went to contract on a home in seacrest beach for 949K but the beauty is that the seller can't close until September. How sweet. My guy has an assignment clause, has it relisted for $1.299 which is what comps are listed at now plus he has the whole summer's appreciation to sell it. His investment - 10K Earnest Money. What a return! Actually have 2 of them with similar deals. The other only had only 2 months to sell so he may need to close but still got a good price and sat on 2 months appreciation for 10K. I'm pretty much over the preconstruction hullabaloo. Didn't Redfish condos break at 900K? Get out of here when I can get still get nice 900K condos like High Pointe ON THE BEACH. Go figure.

Now I'm seeing people trying to sell reservations. Do you believe this? Who would pay 20K for an bilaterally NON-BINDING agreement that somebody who can GET HIS MONEY BACK paid 10K for. I'd never let a client buy or sell that. Sounds like a can of worms. Same for those selling contracts on precons and they are wanting their 100K profit prior to the CO. Who's gonna lend somebody money to buy that? And what if the developer busts and you gave 100K to somebody thats riding around in a snappy new car with your money and you're stuck with a useless contract?

The best yet is a guy who called me up 2 weeks ago. He's been approached to purchase a "preconstruction tour" where he pays $300 dollars for a seat on a bus which takes him around to different Florida preconstruction offerings. No room, no food, nothing but a seat on the bus. I told him I'd take him around for $200K and it includes lunch . This is getting crazy

Good stuff. :clap_1:


I've heard a few people say that around here that some developers are adding some appreciation in to their sales prices, and the margins are getting thinner.

Debbie:

Thanks for the information on St. Joe. I think their biggest challenges (which I'm betting that they'll succeed at) are to (1) convince people to purchase high-end properties inland in the Panhandle (or Great Northwest as they call it); (2) preserve the natural beauty; (3) build infrastructure; and (4) encourage businesses to take root in the "Great Northwest" so that people who want to live inland also have plenty of resources. Joe is in it for the long-term, so they have time to plan out the future of the Great Northwest. Let's hope they do it well and beautifully.

Best,
Paula

Hi Paula,

I'm also betting on Joe. I thinks they know what they're doing. I can only tell you that everything they've done here has turned to gold. There doesn't seem to be any shortage of high end investors in this area. Every year I'm amazed at how many people continue to flock to these communities in spite of the exorbitantly rising prices. From what I hear, we are still priced less than comparable communities around the state. One of my realtors from Boynton told me that homes that are 6 million here would cost 25 million in the Miami area so it looks like we still have room.

Regarding on the preservation of our beauty, I'm relying on our county planners who have done a pretty good job so far. Also it seems like JOE communities do appear to be doing a pretty good job so far from not turning us into miles of pavement. Lots of trees and natural vegetation in both Watercolor and Watersound.

Their donation of the land for the airport and the development of pier park, while certainly not benevolent, seems to indicate an awareness of the need for infrastructure. I know we're all worried about the infrastructure but their communities so far seem to be following new urbanistic principles which will hopefully keep our roads from becoming the mess that 98 is in west Destin.

Not sure about the whole Great Northwest thing but people sure know and appear to love the Panhandle. We're making news everyday and the experts are projecting expansive growth from the beaches to I-10. When I compare Freeport to other bayside cities through the state, I cant believe that it's still so undeveloped, at least for now. Nobody ever knows for sure but it looks like you've made a good choice.

Take care,

Debbie

Debbie:

Thanks for the information on St. Joe. I think their biggest challenges (which I'm betting that they'll succeed at) are to (1) convince people to purchase high-end properties inland in the Panhandle (or Great Northwest as they call it); (2) preserve the natural beauty; (3) build infrastructure; and (4) encourage businesses to take root in the "Great Northwest" so that people who want to live inland also have plenty of resources. Joe is in it for the long-term, so they have time to plan out the future of the Great Northwest. Let's hope they do it well and beautifully.

Best,
Paula

Hi Debbie:

I think so, too. I may increase the amount I invested a bit...

Other things to consider:

St. Joe's is politically in good relationships with Bush in Florida -- if the state ever goes democrat then that may have an impact on St. Joe and development (although my guess is their ready for any changes in political parties -- they seem pretty smart).

Another risk would be any unethical behavior at the top in St. Joes -- but that's hard to predict.

Another risk is that I've read that some of the bigger homes (regular bigger homes, not the bigger homes on the beach) may have reached their peak and that consumers are looking for slightly smaller homes. So, I hope St. Joe's is investing in the middle-range homes as well (which would now be considered those selling for $500-$1,000,000) on 30A and the nearby areas (as strange as that sounds). Someone on this board (you?) mentioned that there's a shortage of those types of properties for sale.

Best,
Paula

Hi Paula,

Funny you mention the political alignments as I've wondered the very same thing. I'm sure if you and I have considered this issue, their paid strategists have already been there.

Ethics in the ranks? I doubt if one or two bad apples could make a difference in such a megacorp unless they compromise laws. In a different life I was a pharmacist who investigated drug companies for the state. It seemed the only thing that could touch the big boys was bad legal problems. Even then, if they were too litigious or expensive to prosecute, I saw many cases "settled" or "dismissed" without litigation so being a megaplayer has it's benefits I guess even when there is corruption.

They do seem to be addressing mid-price needs with developments such as Palmetto Trace in PC. It wasn't me that mentioned the shortage of mid-range homes but I agree. There are still some very nice homes on 30A from 500-1 mil but there won't be for long. Since Joe had plans for west bay area once the airport is approved, I suspect we're going to see some mid-range homes in that area by them. There's a finite number of high end investors (albeit a large number apparently) and Im sure JOE is aware of that.

Take care,

Debbie

I don't think there will be a political question down the road. Politicians come and go all the time in Tallahassee, especially since term limits kicked in. With the current term limits, you just don't get a handful of politicians developing their own little fiefdoms anymore like they could when they could dig in and stay in office for 20+ years. The homebuilders and home builder association lobbyists are there permanently, and know how to get what they want from the politicians, no matter which party is in charge.

Useful comments. Yup, I'll invest a little more in St. Joe's. My sister just invested some money in Joe as well because they've visited the area and seen all the development and did their own research as well. It's an interesting stock to watch anyway, especially for those of us who love the area and follow what's going on in the Panhandle (oh, "Great Northwest").

St. Joe is the best. They are selling land bought for near nothing for a fortune and reinvesting, tax free, via 1031 law, for more land that is dirt cheap. What a beautiful business model.

Where is JOE "reinvesting for more land that is dirt cheap"? Just curious where they are heading down the road..

Oh, and "Cork On the Ocean", great information - thank you.

Where is JOE "reinvesting for more land that is dirt cheap"? Just curious where they are heading down the road..

Oh, and "Cork On the Ocean", great information - thank you.

I know that JOE has been buying huge acerage in SW Georgia, some river-front but mostly interior.

Judging by all of the Chevy Suburbans and Tahoes seen in the area, I wonder if all of you JOE speculators are also GM speculators?

Nope, I never invested in GM. Joe is the only non mutual fund I have and I figured it would be interesting to test my instincts (I didn't bet my retirement or kids' education on St. Joe's, just enough to make the stock worth watching without shedding too many tears if I'm wrong). It really was reading the book, Green Empire, that inspired me to buy the stock and the book was recommended on this discussion group somewhere about 3 months ago. The book did not by any means recommend getting the stock (they had as many cons as pros in their reading of Joe as an organization, but my reading of the book (and what I saw going on in the Panhandled) made me think it was a good investment, despite the risks. And the book was a good way for me to get a handle on some of the more political issues around development in the Panhandle.

Although I prefer SoWal real estate as an investment, I own and like the stock. It has been a great performer over the last year and will hopefully continue to perform well.

What is going on people? With all the Hummers, Suburbans, Avalanches, Cadillac SUVs, and Tahoes around here, why is GM down 40% for the previous 12 mo.? Could the problem have to do with the fact that they also build medium and low price cars in addition to the luxury SUVs? Any thoughts as to what would happen to JOE if they built more Pametto Traces and became known for affordable housing?

Hmmm... I guess I'll leave it up to Joe to figure out how to use the land and spend their money...

I'd invest more in actual real estate myself in S. Walton, but at this point don't have the $. Not many (any) properties in our price range any more (we bought two places -- one a year ago and one two years ago when the places were quite a bit more affordable). We love the area and hope to someday spend more time there.

This article is from a new press release I found on Yahoo's news home page.


The St. Joe Company Outlines Vision for ``New Ruralism''
Saturday June 4, 10:48 am ET
JOE Uniquely Positioned to Execute Rural Value-Creation Strategy Designed to Position Inland Acreage for Higher and Better Uses


JACKSONVILLE, Fla.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--June 4, 2005--At a real estate editors conference, Peter S. Rummell, chairman and CEO of The St. Joe Company (NYSE:JOE - News) outlined the company's vision for the development of new real estate products based on a concept described as the "New Ruralism." Rummell spoke at the annual meeting of the National Association of Real Estate Editors in Washington, DC.
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While sharing key principles with New Urbanism, New Ruralism is focused on reestablishing connections with the land that once was at the heart of America's farms, ranches and rural communities. Rummell described New Ruralism as a value creation strategy applicable to potentially tens of thousands of JOE's inland acres that is designed to position them for higher and better uses.

"We believe JOE is uniquely positioned to implement both New Ruralism and New Urbanism strategies on a large scale," said Rummell. "With approximately 850,000 acres concentrated primarily in Northwest Florida, JOE is one of few developers with well-placed land resources suitable for a broad application of both approaches.

"While New Urbanism principles have currently been applied primarily to projects on the 340,000 acres JOE owns within the ten-mile coastal zone, New Ruralism products introduce a line of land offerings ideally suited for our large inland acreage holdings, as well as in select near-coastal locations. JOE has also assembled the broad mix of management skills, ranging from land planners and construction managers to foresters and wildlife biologists, required to implement New Ruralism strategies."

Products developed under the New Urbanism and New Ruralism philosophies are targeted to satisfy the desires of two distinctly different niche markets. While they have common defining characteristics shared by all great places created by JOE, including an emphasis on clear boundaries, authenticity and environmental stewardship, two key differences, beyond setting, distinguish places created under the two strategies.

New Urbanism promotes community through planning that mandates the interaction of neighbors designed to recapture the sense of community that was once the defining characteristic of American small town life. The small home sites and close proximity of homes stimulate a sense of community. In a New Ruralism setting, participation in community activities is more by choice with privacy options carefully preserved. Larger home sites, often separated by nature preserves or agricultural land, provide a buffer between neighbors. Here the front porch is a place to scan the vastness of your domain. The collection of multiple RiverCamps, farms or ranches provides an opportunity for community of like-minded neighbors, but only as desired.

Day-to-day experiences contrast as well. New Urbanism development stresses community connections as one might find in small-town America, while New Ruralism development stresses connections with nature and the land found in rural America. Experiences in the New Urbanism setting are based on planned connections within the community. In contrast, New Ruralism provides a setting where experiences are directly linked to the rhythms of nature: rise with the sun, fish with the tides, and rest with the moon.

"JOE's New Ruralism products are for people seeking a simpler life from a simpler time and wanting to reconnect with the land without the need to make a living from it," said Rummell. "Technology provides a way to reconnect with the world, but at a safe distance."

Currently, JOE is creating and bringing to market three New Ruralism real estate products - RiverCamps, WhiteFence Farms and Florida Ranches - to provide a way for people to reconnect with nature and the land.

RiverCamps

JOE's RiverCamps are planned settlements in rustic settings, offering personal retreats in private preserves. RiverCamps' low-density home sites are sold fee-simple and are surrounded by a large common area preserved for conservation. Two RiverCamps locations are currently being developed with other potential RiverCamps locations in Northwest Florida being evaluated.

RiverCamps on Crooked Creek

JOE's first RiverCamps site is located near one of Northwest Florida's most beautiful bay systems. The site provides boating and fishing with water access to St. Andrews Bay and its creeks, the Intracoastal Waterway and the Gulf of Mexico. Plans call for the sale of home sites and homes. A full menu of owner services, with emphasis on outdoor recreation, is now being developed.

RiverCamps on Crooked Creek, located in Western Bay County, is entitled for up to 450 home sites on approximately 1,500 acres of former timberland and features views of West Bay, the Intracoastal Waterway and Crooked Creek.

"We have seen strong demand and pricing at RiverCamps on Crooked Creek," said Rummell. Home site prices for the most recent release averaged $342,900 and ranged from $174,500 for an interior site to $1 million for a bay-front site.

An increasing number of RiverCamps buyers are coming from outside the local market. Buyers from beyond a 120-mile radius of RiverCamps on Crooked Creek increased from 48 percent for RiverCamps' first release in 2003 to 60 percent for the second release in 2004, and to 70 percent for the third release in the first quarter of 2005.

RiverCamps on Sandy Creek

RiverCamps on Sandy Creek features views of Sandy Creek and Little Sandy Creek and access to East Bay in eastern Bay County. Pending the receipt of land-use approvals and environmental permits, sales are planned for RiverCamps on Sandy Creek in 2006 or 2007.

WhiteFence Farms

JOE's WhiteFence Farms, formerly called farmsteads, are large home sites with room for a variety of outdoor activities. To be developed in a number of locations in Northwest Florida, WhiteFence Farms are being designed to feel 'old farm and equestrian.' Each farm site includes a home site for a main farmhouse along with sites for other optional buildings such as barns, guest houses and stables.

Predevelopment planning started in the first quarter of 2005 at the first location near Tallahassee. It is expected to total approximately 1,000 acres with each individual farm site consisting of 5 to 20 acres. Initial pricing is now expected to range from $20,000 to $75,000 per acre for a typical farm site. Sales of WhiteFence Farms are expected to begin in 2006.

Florida Ranches

Predevelopment planning started in early 2005 on the initial Florida Ranch properties in several locations in Northwest Florida. Florida Ranches are expected to consist of 50 to 150-acre sites located within a 1,000 to 3,000-acre community. Florida Ranches are being designed primarily as second-homes for outdoor enthusiasts.

Florida Ranches are being planned to offer a wide range of recreational opportunities, with some shared sporting areas. Many may be on or near rivers and land suited for wildlife habitation. Improvements include clearing, fencing, road stabilization and entry features.

Initial pricing for Florida Ranch parcels is expected to range from $4,500 to $10,000 per acre, and sales are expected to begin in 2006.

About JOE

The St. Joe Company, a publicly held company based in Jacksonville, is one of Florida's largest real estate operating companies. It is engaged in town, resort, commercial and industrial development, land sales and commercial real estate services. JOE also has significant interests in timber.

More information about JOE and our approach to New Ruralism can be found at our web site at http://www.joe.com.

Forward-Looking Statements

Statements in this press release that are not historical facts are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward looking statements involve risk and uncertainty, and there can be no assurance that the results described in such statements will be realized. Such statements are based on current expectations and we undertake no obligation to publicly update or reissue any forward-looking statements. Risk factors that may cause our actual results to differ are described in various documents we file with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, including our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2004.

Copyright 2005, The St. Joe Company. "JOE," "RiverCamps," "St. Joe," "WhiteFence Farms," and the "taking flight" design are service marks of The St. Joe Company.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Contact:
The St. Joe Company, Jacksonville
Media Contact:
Jerry M. Ray, 904-301-4430
jray@joe.com
or
Investor Contact:
Brad Slappey, 904-301-4302
bslappey@joe.com