Expressing Frustration

Doesn't make sense to me either - especially since any savvy buyer checks the history and can see you jacked up the price.

just forgot about those and focus on exactly what you want...there will always be the kind of situations you write about and it will be frustrating...but, the perfect situation for you is out there...just focus on what you want.

You'll get the property faster and it's a lot less stressful.

good luck.

Oh, and a good Realtor helps.

Doesn't make sense to me either - especially since any savvy buyer checks the history and can see you jacked up the price.

Except for the ones that are just having the time of their lives and sign before they research. They'll then register as watercolorgate and start a thread on here asking for other stories of people who were "duped".

O.K., I can't help myself here. As some of you may know by now, I am an avid follower of the real estate market along 30-A... in particular Watercolor. I do this in hopes of one day buying... and let's face it, I just have a love for it. I am completely irked at the random.... "let's raise the price 50 thousand now that it's spring and we sense market growth." I've seen lots purchased for under two and put back on the market for over three. I've seen homes purchased for in the sixes, painted and staged, and put back on the market for in the nine's. I just got notified of "price changes" in phase four WC... both increases of around $50,000. It feels like just plain greed. What on earth is driving these decisions?? I read article after article about how appraisals are coming in for below contracts and now the buyers and sellers are losing deals, or re-negotiating at the lower prices. All the while builders, flippers etc.. are raising the prices. I say this because my heart really does belong to 30-A and I feel that myself and others are being cheated out of our chance to make a good, sound decision. I've said it before, I'm not looking for a smokin' deal, just one that makes sense. Knowing I'm paying $50,000 more this week than I would have last week for the exact same house, doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Growth in the market place is one thing, gouging is another.

REALLY?! From someone who lives here now, that suffered through the worst real estate crisis in centuries...I am welcoming the increase in prices. I'm happy if people are able to flip properties and make a profit, this will only help drive up the entire area's appraised values. The price is based on what the market will bear. I really hope this is a starting sign of a full recovery.

"What is driving the price increase?" supply vs. demand...

The "distressed inventory" has been gobbled up. The economy is getting better, the unemployment rate is dropping and not a drop of oil (so far) I have lived here for over 30 years- I love this place...THANK GOD it is getting better for ones that lived through this depressing economic time.

Now speaking as a realtor/appraiser, daughter of a realtor, friend of many local realtors, builders, and developers...

You should have bought last week, last month or last year. What are you waiting for, its not getting any cheaper, call you real estate agent today and make an offer!!!

melscuba

Well at least you have one one up compared to the average beachgoer that is taken back and fixated by the area's allure while remaining oblivious to this area's frenetic assignment of price. 30a is more a commodity compared to the static nature of most of the country's real estate. I've seen the prices change on properties literally day to day with no explanantion. If the market buys, I guess this confirms the "true" value.
What I worry about, besides Berkowitz's master plan, is that the train is starting all over again and that history will repeat itself. As a homeowner in this area I have seen the giddy days when if you questioned how they arrived at those outrageous values they would think you were out of your mind and blew you off. Now I have seen an alarming number of properties that have been already back on the market after I reckon, was maybe a year long flip. The damage that the "investment/speculator approach" towards real estate created dark, untenable outcomes in not only in my neighborhood, but all over 30a and the country. Remember, not even two years ago the stock market was on the brink of collapse. I hate for people to forget what was created in the name of a quick profit. I am wondering if the banks, especially the national names, are going to coalesce their appraisals to agree. If you respect this area you are concerned about long term sustainability and sensible appreciation,(consult R. Schiller possibly?) not quick profit.

REALLY?! From someone who lives here now, that suffered through the worst real estate crisis in centuries...I am welcoming the increase in prices. I'm happy if people are able to flip properties and make a profit, this will only help drive up the entire area's appraised values. The price is based on what the market will bear. I really hope this is a starting sign of a full recovery.

"What is driving the price increase?" supply vs. demand...

The "distressed inventory" has been gobbled up. The economy is getting better, the unemployment rate is dropping and not a drop of oil (so far) I have lived here for over 30 years- I love this place...THANK GOD it is getting better for ones that lived through this depressing economic time.

Now speaking as a realtor/appraiser, daughter of a realtor, friend of many local realtors, builders, and developers...

You should have bought last week, last month or last year. What are you waiting for, its not getting any cheaper, call you real estate agent today and make an offer!!!

Unfortunately, not only did you miss the bigger picture ... but you are also completely out of touch with reality

Unfortunately, not only did you miss the bigger picture ... but you are also completely out of touch with reality

Whoa....seriously??? If you have been waiting for a steal, I think you missed it. Supply and demand ARE the market, if there is no demand for a certain price, then don't sweat it. It there is demand, then...there you have it.

You have been studying the real estate market, so you should be aware that the curve appears to be climbing upward. As another poster said, contact your realtor and get off your check book.

That said, I truly hope you find a good deal, something you will be happy with. But don't wait too long to get your feet wet.

Whoa....seriously??? If you have been waiting for a steal, I think you missed it. Supply and demand ARE the market, if there is no demand for a certain price, then don't sweat it. It there is demand, then...there you have it.

You have been studying the real estate market, so you should be aware that the curve appears to be climbing upward. As another poster said, contact your realtor and get off your check book.

That said, I truly hope you find a good deal, something you will be happy with. But don't wait too long to get your feet wet.

I mispoke, thinking you were the original poster, so I don't know if you have been studying the market. Maybe you should if yu are not.

Just to clarify.... I would buy a permanent residence on 30-A if I could. Our home here in Atlanta still sits stagnant on value and likely to drop more. We did not make a foolish decision this go around here in Atlanta... and shook our heads at the ever increasing prices. At the time I remember feeling we were getting left behind while the world surged ahead financially. We now realize it was vapor money people were using. And in truth, I can be a bit superstitious, so suffice to say, I won't mention anything else. However, I think my point may be getting misunderstood. Irrationally driving prices for sheer profit, doesn't make good sense to me in the long run, not as a buyer. As a seller, I guess I would just shake my head and run. While I realize those who owned during the boom, and didn't sell, have suffered terribly, 30-A is not isolated in that event. I think a surge is frightening and signals further instability. A normal, expected growth in a healthy, recovering market, on those price homes would be about $14,000, not $50,000.... IMHO.

In fact, I have a great realtor on 30-A. But that doesn't mean I don't do my own research and make decisions on my own. I wish nothing but the best for Sowal, and hope to call it home one day, as it sure feels like it in my heart. But, I didn't like what I saw, and felt it unjust. Greed doesn't do anybody any good... and when I start to feel like something I love may again be out of reach for me because of it.... well, I guess I'm gonna just stomp my feet and cross my arms.

Like I said before, I'm not looking for a smokin' deal... just one that feels sensible. A $50,000 change in price doesn't feel sensible as a buyer. And before this mess started, I would have asked what was wrong with the house if I saw a $50,000 drop. Now I know what's wrong.... financial crisis. Let me re-iterate.... I'm not a vulture waiting for road kill here. But I don't plan on being the road kill either.

Just to clarify.... I would buy a permanent residence on 30-A if I could. Our home here in Atlanta still sits stagnant on value and likely to drop more. We did not make a foolish decision this go around here in Atlanta... and shook our heads at the ever increasing prices. At the time I remember feeling we were getting left behind while the world surged ahead financially. We now realize it was vapor money people were using. And in truth, I can be a bit superstitious, so suffice to say, I won't mention anything else. However, I think my point may be getting misunderstood. Irrationally driving prices for sheer profit, doesn't make good sense to me in the long run, not as a buyer. As a seller, I guess I would just shake my head and run. While I realize those who owned during the boom, and didn't sell, have suffered terribly, 30-A is not isolated in that event. I think a surge is frightening and signals further instability. A normal, expected growth in a healthy, recovering market, on those price homes would be about $14,000, not $50,000.... IMHO.

In fact, I have a great realtor on 30-A. But that doesn't mean I don't do my own research and make decisions on my own. I wish nothing but the best for Sowal, and hope to call it home one day, as it sure feels like it in my heart. But, I didn't like what I saw, and felt it unjust. Greed doesn't do anybody any good... and when I start to feel like something I love may again be out of reach for me because of it.... well, I guess I'm gonna just stomp my feet and cross my arms.

Like I said before, I'm not looking for a smokin' deal... just one that feels sensible. A $50,000 change in price doesn't feel sensible as a buyer. And before this mess started, I would have asked what was wrong with the house if I saw a $50,000 drop. Now I know what's wrong.... financial crisis. Let me re-iterate.... I'm not a vulture waiting for road kill here. But I don't plan on being the road kill either.

Don't sweat it. The train wreck is not over. In fact, all the problems which caused it in the first place are still there and worse, the TBTF are bigger. The market is not going to leave you behind after the hindsight-bottom with a "V" correction. It will be flat for years. I wouldn't let that stop you from buying a family home, but a second? There are better liquid hard assets out there to park your money in which will appreciate much more during these inflated dollar days.

Patience. This problem was built over decades, it won't be solved in months.

You'll never know the market has either bottomed or topped until after the fact. Sometimes well after. I was surprised at the rapid appreciation as well as the rapid depreciation in prices through the years. Before this, I never realized real estate could behave like a stock.

The basic reasons for owning in South Walton have not changed over the years, even as the economics have flipped and flopped. It's still a highly desireable area for many reasons.

My wish would be for more controlled growth out of this mess, but that doesn't mean its going to happen that way. Personally, I think we saw a bottom last year and we'll see growth from there. You may be frustrated at seeing some price bumps, but I assure you it's nowhere near the frustration and anguish of the people who managed to hang on through the downturn have experienced.

In many instances the asking price is not the sold price. Make an offer of what you think the property is worth based on your study and you may just find yourself under contract. Concentrate on the sold prices and don't put too much into the varying asking prices. Sellers are feeling and testing the market, they don't have a clue either.

This price increase makes sense Melscuba, although I understand your frustration with the direction. I believe you mentioned the increase was on lots?

What happenned last week at the St. Joe company, which controls a huge swath of the entitled lot inventory in South Walton, is a huge shift for the marketplace in South Walton. In an instant on Friday, JOE became a company not concerned with quarterly results, and not burdened by executives that were overpaid based on short term results. Now the goal posts have shifted dramatically, to a much longer term patient view of value, probably more aligned with EBSCO Corp, the other larger controller of a block of entitled south walton inventory.

What does this mean? Well in an instant, prices for lots increase. If they don't sell, what it effectively means, is that JOE is happy not "harvesting" them for a few years.. so in that event, they're out of inventory effectively. One of the reasons that lots in South Walton went down 75-95% in value from peak to trough (trough being mostly defined for me as any distress sales in the last 12 months to banks at discounts) was because JOE's lots became the gauge by which others are measured, and it became obvious to the market that the Supply leader, was willing to reduce price drastically. Whereas built homes on lots, went down 40 to 50% in this peak to trough scenario, lots went down much worse. JOE didn't have a huge controlling swing factor inventory of built homes to slash prices on. It basically had building lots.
The 50K price bump in WC is the beginning of a multi-year reversion to mean in values. Values aren't returning to past peak levels anytime, soon, they're just going to bounce back to being off 50% from peak, instead of 85%.

That's all.

This will allow the value of lots in areas in South Walton, outside of Watercolor/Alys/Rosemary to to rise fairly dramatically, but only "dramatic" as seen from the depths of how low they were allowed to sink in a nightmare scenario where the stock market was going to ZERO, JOE was mis-managed for quarterly profit in the worst possible grouping of quarters ever in American history to sell real estate, and the gulf coast was to be covered in oil. Real estate will not regain its former glory for decades, but the stock market has doubled with a "D," and that is more significant for the aspirational South Walton buyer, than it is for anywhere else along the nearby coastal areas. Second, South Walton supply is constrained by State Forests, Choc Bay. Third, this constrained and desirable supply in South Walton has been further constrained this past week by a dramatic and public transformation of JOE, into a more EBSCO like patient entity, that doesn't need firesales to make quarterly numbers any longer, especially given their strong balance sheet with no debt.

All this makes for a tinderbox environment for South Walton in particular, but don't get too excited, values are going to be heading back to "down 50%" from the peak. That's no party for those that bought at higher prices. It's more properly going to be seen as a relief rally.

Cheers Melscuba, I hope that helps, although it may not be what you want to hear right now. I know you'd prefer to hear that lot prices will get even cheaper, that the "85% off" sales aren't going away, anytime soon.

The problem is South Walton isn't now like a Bealls Find a Dot Save a Lot... and part of that is because everyone in Roswell with good taste, is thinking the same way you are, and Orange Beach, or Panama City or Destin, or Hilton Head is no substitute for South Walton.

Don't sweat it. The train wreck is not over. In fact, all the problems which caused it in the first place are still there and worse, the TBTF are bigger. The market is not going to leave you behind after the hindsight-bottom with a "V" correction. It will be flat for years. I wouldn't let that stop you from buying a family home, but a second? There are better liquid hard assets out there to park your money in which will appreciate much more during these inflated dollar days.

Patience. This problem was built over decades, it won't be solved in months.

Good point. The price fluctuations melscuba is seeing are like aftershocks after a major earthquake. There are a lot of desperate people who own and are underwater out there still. Don't get suckered by them.

Good point. The price fluctuations melscuba is seeing are like aftershocks after a major earthquake. There are a lot of desperate people who own and are underwater out there still. Don't get suckered by them.

I agree 30ashopper. I see many cases where the markets has over adjusted. Especially in land. I sold a lot awhile back for $50,000 that originally sold for $600,000! $600,000 was way too much but $50,000 was way too low IMO. I think we are going to see years of rebound pricing, dropping and raising until we all finally quit talking about what "things" use to sell for. Ultimately, the buyers set the price and it seems they want to buy. I have been back a few days and am amazed at what is happening in Watercolor. I noted a home a day pended last week. Wow.

Good point. The price fluctuations melscuba is seeing are like aftershocks after a major earthquake. There are a lot of desperate people who own and are underwater out there still. Don't get suckered by them.

Agree, these people raising prices in the spring are desperate and hoping those visiting during the beautiful sunny weather will be as dumb as they were and believe that "now is the time to buy" and do no research.

I agree 30ashopper. I see many cases where the markets has over adjusted. Especially in land. I sold a lot awhile back for $50,000 that originally sold for $600,000! $600,000 was way too much but $50,000 was way too low IMO. I think we are going to see years of rebound pricing, dropping and raising until we all finally quit talking about what "things" use to sell for. Ultimately, the buyers set the price and it seems they want to buy. I have been back a few days and am amazed at what is happening in Watercolor. I noted a home a day pended last week. Wow.

Disagree, if $50,000 was the best offer on the lot after a reasonable time on the market then that would be its true market value. As you state in your post "Ultimately, the buyers set the price".

I agree with Bobby J's statement above.

Regarding the original post about "gouging," I disagree that you are being gouged. No one is making anyone buy anything at a higher price. Regardless of the asking price, the property will sell for market value if it is an arm's length transaction.

Poppy, I disagree with your statement a little bit. You cannot make blanket statements and expect the full story to be true in all circumstances. Yes, the market sets the price. However, we are in an unusual time, where the majority of these lot sales require cash buyers and the majority of the sales are distressed. Fear pushed the market prices up, and fear pushed them down. Distressed sales are not arm's length transactions. They are what I would call "panic" sales, and in many cases, they are being sold below market value because banks have to clear their books of real estate holdings.

If a buyer can buy at a below market value because he or she has cash waving in front of a seller, the buyer can turn around and sell it for market value. It is business, not gouging. Of course there are no guarantees and the market could drop and that buyer could be pinched instead of making money. One will not know if there is profit or loss until he or she sells.

Often, when buying or selling, people make the mistake of placing value based on what it sold for in the past. In a market that has greatly changed in ten years, that doesn't work.

That said, there are properties which are overpriced, but again, as someone else said, make an offer. If they don't come down to market price, what did it cost you, other than time?

Someone gave you great advice, forget about the listings which are overpriced and won't negotiate to market value. There are plenty. However, the ones which are priced well, will go quickly. Do your homework. Good luck with getting into WaterColor. It is a cool place to be.

The state forest is not the only thing on fire around here. I have talked to some realtors lately who are closing a lot of deals.

I agree with Bobby J's statement above.

Regarding the original post about "gouging," I disagree that you are being gouged. No one is making anyone buy anything at a higher price. Regardless of the asking price, the property will sell for market value if it is an arm's length transaction.

Poppy, I disagree with your statement a little bit. You cannot make blanket statements and expect the full story to be true in all circumstances. Yes, the market sets the price. However, we are in an unusual time, where the majority of these lot sales require cash buyers and the majority of the sales are distressed. Fear pushed the market prices up, and fear pushed them down. Distressed sales are not arm's length transactions. They are what I would call "panic" sales, and in many cases, they are being sold below market value because banks have to clear their books of real estate holdings.

If a buyer can buy at a below market value because he or she has cash waving in front of a seller, the buyer can turn around and sell it for market value. It is business, not gouging. Of course there are no guarantees and the market could drop and that buyer could be pinched instead of making money. One will not know if there is profit or loss until he or she sells.

Often, when buying or selling, people make the mistake of placing value based on what it sold for in the past. In a market that has greatly changed in ten years, that doesn't work.

That said, there are properties which are overpriced, but again, as someone else said, make an offer. If they don't come down to market price, what did it cost you, other than time?

Someone gave you great advice, forget about the listings which are overpriced and won't negotiate to market value. There are plenty. However, the ones which are priced well, will go quickly. Do your homework. Good luck with getting into WaterColor. It is a cool place to be.

I was referring to an arm length transaction, Bobby J didn't indicate any undue influence in the sale but it really doesn't matter. A buyer looking at those lots now will average in the lot Bobby J sold to determine the price they will pay.

Agree, these people raising prices in the spring are desperate and hoping those visiting during the beautiful sunny weather will be as dumb as they were and believe that "now is the time to buy" and do no research.



Disagree, if $50,000 was the best offer on the lot after a reasonable time on the market then that would be its true market value. As you state in your post "Ultimately, the buyers set the price".

I agree with your point Poppy. Property was not on market but a few days. Bank was throwing prices out to see what will stick. Buyer stuck with the $50,000 so at that point that is the value. He could resell it today for $75,000. The buyer sets the value that's why you really can't get upset when you see prices begin to again creep up in certain areas. I have been back only a few days and getting rather busy in a short time. Very exciting!

I agree with your point Poppy. Property was not on market but a few days. Bank was throwing prices out to see what will stick. Buyer stuck with the $50,000 so at that point that is the value. He could resell it today for $75,000. The buyer sets the value that's why you really can't get upset when you see prices begin to again creep up in certain areas. I have been back only a few days and getting rather busy in a short time. Very exciting!

Why aren't the banks using a local broker(s) to set realistic prices in both directions. My sister is currently closing on her home in Tallahassee that originally sold for $150,000, broker set price at $100,000 and my sis offered $90k got rebuttal of $95k and is going to move in shortly. The whole process took about 3 months, the time it normally takes to get a no on a short sale in South Walton.

Why aren't the banks using a local broker(s) to set realistic prices in both directions. My sister is currently closing on her home in Tallahassee that originally sold for $150,000, broker set price at $100,000 and my sis offered $90k got rebuttal of $95k and is going to move in shortly. The whole process took about 3 months, the time it normally takes to get a no on a short sale in South Walton.

"Why aren't banks" I sure hear that one a lot. I think the simple answer is because that would make sense. I don't think we got in this mess with banks making decisions that were based off of making sense. Therefore, to try to wonder "why" about bank making decisions is a complete waste of time. I bang my head against the wall often SWGB.

O.K., I can't help myself here. As some of you may know by now, I am an avid follower of the real estate market along 30-A... in particular Watercolor. I do this in hopes of one day buying... and let's face it, I just have a love for it. I am completely irked at the random.... "let's raise the price 50 thousand now that it's spring and we sense market growth." I've seen lots purchased for under two and put back on the market for over three. I've seen homes purchased for in the sixes, painted and staged, and put back on the market for in the nine's. I just got notified of "price changes" in phase four WC... both increases of around $50,000. It feels like just plain greed. What on earth is driving these decisions?? I read article after article about how appraisals are coming in for below contracts and now the buyers and sellers are losing deals, or re-negotiating at the lower prices. All the while builders, flippers etc.. are raising the prices. I say this because my heart really does belong to 30-A and I feel that myself and others are being cheated out of our chance to make a good, sound decision. I've said it before, I'm not looking for a smokin' deal, just one that makes sense. Knowing I'm paying $50,000 more this week than I would have last week for the exact same house, doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Growth in the market place is one thing, gouging is another.

Not sure what sellers are "raising prices", but overall, sales price per square foot in watercolor has been falling for 4 straight years (analysis excludes phase 4 slaes due to very low prices per square foot). This fact applies to Phases 1, 2 and 3 and the trend continues downward in the early part of 2011. So, reality says prices continue to fall, albiet at a slower pace. The decline has not stopped and there continues to be too many shorts and foreclosures for the trend to reverse. Prices will not be going up by any significant percentage for years to come.

You have been on the sidelines for a long time. What price do you expect to pay per square foot and what phase do you want to buy in? At some point you simply need to pull the trigger. Have you considered buying a lot (these prices continue to fall by fairly large percentages) and build? Probably the best bet to get exactly what you want at the best price.

Not sure what sellers are "raising prices", but overall, sales price per square foot in watercolor has been falling for 4 straight years (analysis excludes phase 4 slaes due to very low prices per square foot). This fact applies to Phases 1, 2 and 3 and the trend continues downward in the early part of 2011. So, reality says prices continue to fall, albiet at a slower pace. The decline has not stopped and there continues to be too many shorts and foreclosures for the trend to reverse. Prices will not be going up by any significant percentage for years to come.

You have been on the sidelines for a long time. What price do you expect to pay per square foot and what phase do you want to buy in? At some point you simply need to pull the trigger. Have you considered buying a lot (these prices continue to fall by fairly large percentages) and build? Probably the best bet to get exactly what you want at the best price.

Man, you're telling me... we've been on the sidelines a long time. Partly watching the market... the other part, our timing financially. It's been a debate between full time versus second home.... a huge price difference for us. We have made a couple of attempts since this past fall... to no avail. I think I may have said earlier, I'm a bit superstitious, so I won't say much more.. And you are right, I've seen price per square drop as well. I guess that is why I shake my head at what seems like arbitrary hikes. For me, I'm hoping the stars align and something works for us. And for the market, I don't like seeing some of the randomness in prices. I want to see the market become stable and make sense... for 30-A in general. A good point was made earlier... and I know it to be true. A seller can ask all day long... the market will bear a certain price. While I personally don't want to see prices go up all... so we can get our ducks in a row, what I want more is a stable market where I can look and say, "Yep, I get it... that makes sense". A $50,000 price hike in a week.... I just don't get.

Why aren't the banks using a local broker(s) to set realistic prices in both directions. My sister is currently closing on her home in Tallahassee that originally sold for $150,000, broker set price at $100,000 and my sis offered $90k got rebuttal of $95k and is going to move in shortly. The whole process took about 3 months, the time it normally takes to get a no on a short sale in South Walton.

I think it depends on the bank/lender. Fannie Mae foreclosures are selling at rock bottom prices from what I've seen. (Yeah government backing!) Commercial banks that are local seem to be listing about right, national and multi-national banks are listing too high. (Those will come down in time as the cost of ownership wears on them.)